Iran Update, July 13, 2024

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, on July 13.[i] The strike also targeted Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. Israel is still assessing whether the strike killed Deif or Salamah. Israeli officials confirmed that they conducted the strike based on specific intelligence collected over the prior 24 hours.[ii] The IDF Air Force dropped eight 2,000-pound precision munitions targeting a building in which Deif and Salamah were assessed to be.[iii] Anonymous Israeli officials speaking to Western media said that the building was in a fenced off open separated from refugee tents.[iv] An Israeli military correspondent, citing IDF sources, reported that Israeli security officials are optimistic that the strike killed Deif.[v] Hamas denied that the IDF killed any senior commanders.[vi] The Hamas-run Gazan Health Ministry claimed that strike killed 71 and injured 289.[vii] Anonymous Israeli officials speaking to Western media said that most individuals killed in the strike were Hamas fighters assigned to protect Deif and Salma.[viii]

Mohammed Deif was a notably senior official in Hamas, particularly its military wing. Deif played a leading role in building Hamas’ underground tunnel networks and planning Hamas’ attack into Israel in October 2023.[ix] The US State Department sanctioned Deif in 2015 and described him as the ”mastermind of Hamas’ offensive strategy.”[x] Anonymous Israeli officials speaking to Western media described Salamah similarly as one of the ”masterminds” of the October 2023 attack.[xi] Salamah oversaw a ”central combat center” in the southern Gaza Strip.[xii] Salamah reportedly helped plan multiple attacks on Israel throughout his career, including the kidnapping of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit from Sufa in 2006.[xiii] Salamah‘s uncle, Jawad Abu Shamala, is a member of Hamas’ political bureau and reportedly has a close relationship with leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar.[xiv]

Hamas called on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and West Bank to rise up in retaliation for Israel targeting Mohammad Deif. Hamas suggested that intensifying violence against Israeli settlers and soldiers in the West Bank could distract the IDF from operations in the Gaza Strip and thus exhaust the IDF.[xv] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered a heightened security threat level “on all fronts.”[xvi]

Key Takeaways:

1. Gaza Strip: The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. The strike also targeted Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. Israel is still assessing whether the strike killed Deif or Salamah.
2. West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters six times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on July 12. PIJ fired small arms at the Israeli town Gan Ner in retaliation for Israel targeting Mohammed Deif.
3. Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least six attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on July 12.
4. Yemen: US CENTCOM destroyed three Houthi drones in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on July 12.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The IDF continued clearing operations in the Gaza Strip on July 13. The 3rd “Alexandroni” Brigade (99th Division) engaged Palestinian fighters in an unspecified area of Gaza City.[xvii] The depot was used by Hamas fighters to attack civilians in southern Israel on October 7.[xviii]

Hamas attacked IDF dismounted infantry and armored vehicles in Tal al Hawa on July 13.[xix] The Gazan Civil Defense Agency and local Palestinian journalists reported on July 12 that Israeli armored forces withdrew from the UNRWA headquarters and surrounding area at dawn on July 12.[xx] Hamas’ activity on July 13 suggests that Israeli forces remain active in other areas of Tal al Hawa.

Palestinian militias defended against Israeli clearing operations in Rafah on July 13. Hamas attacked three Israeli tanks near the Abu Dhar al Ghafari Mosque east of Rafah city with RPG fire.[xxi] Hamas fighters also detonated mines targeting IDF infantry operating in al Shoka neighborhood, Rafah.[xxii] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) mortared Israeli forces located east of Rafah city.[xxiii] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—mortared Israeli forces located at the Egypt-Gaza Strip border crossing.[xxiv] The 162nd Division destroyed tunnel shafts and killed Palestinian fighters operating in Rafah.[xxv] The Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) directed an airstrike on a group of Palestinian fighters who had targeted Israeli forces with rocket propelled grenade (RPG) fire.[xxvi] The IDF Air Force destroyed a Hamas paraglider warehouse in Rafah.

Palestinian militias conducted at least two indirect fire attacks targeting IDF sites in southern Israel on July 13.[xxvii] The Palestinian Mujahideen and National Resistance Brigades fighters targeted Israeli forces with rockets at a site near Nahal Oz.[xxviii] The National Resistance Brigades targeted an IDF site near Sufa with mortars.[xxix]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters six times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on July 12.[xxx] PIJ fired small arms at the Israeli town Gan Ner in retaliation for Israel targeting Mohammed Deif.[xxxi]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
• Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
• Expel the United States from Syria

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least six attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on July 12.[xxxii]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

US CENTCOM destroyed three Houthi drones in Yemen on July 12.[xxxiii]