July 14, 2024

Iran Update, July 14, 2024

Kelly Campa, Siddhant Kishore, Annika Ganzeveld and Nicholas Carl

Iran Update, July 14, 2024

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it killed Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah in the southern Gaza Strip on July 13.[i] The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Salamah and Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, on July 13.[ii] The IDF described Salamah as one of the “masterminds” of Hamas’ attack into Israel in October 2023.[iii] Salamah helped plan multiple other attacks against Israel throughout his career, including the kidnapping of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit in 2006.[iv] Salamah had commanded the Khan Younis Brigade after replacing senior Hamas military leader Mohammad Sinwar in 2016.[v] The IDF said that Salameh was responsible for all rockets attacks from the Khan Younis area into Israel. The IDF called Salamah’s killing “a significant blow” to Hamas’s military capabilities in the Gaza Strip.[vi] Sources from Hamas confirmed Salamah’s death.[vii]

The IDF said on July 14 that it is still assessing whether the airstrike killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif.[viii] IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said that it is too early to confirm Deif’s death during a press conference on July 14.[ix] An anonymous Israeli official told the Wall Street Journal that there is reason to believe Deif was killed but the IDF is still assessing.[x] Halevi alleged that Hamas is attempting to hide the ”results” of Israel’s airstrike.[xi] Hamas Political Bureau member Khalil al Hayya denied Deif’s death on July 13.[xii] An Israeli military correspondent reported Deif was deeply involved in commanding Hamas fighters during the war but rarely ventured above ground, spending most of the war underground in Khan Younis.[xiii] Israeli Prime Benjamin Netanyahu stated that killing Deif would advance Israeli objectives to destroy Hamas and send a “deterrent message” to Iran and its proxies during a press conference on June 13.[xiv]

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF confirmed that it killed the commander of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade in an airstrike targeting senior Hamas officials in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF said that it is still assessing whether the airstrike killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif.
West Bank: A Palestinian fighter conducted a car ramming and shooting attack in central Israel, injuring four Israeli soldiers.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted nine attacks into northern Israel.
Yemen: The Houthis claimed two drone and missile attacks targeting a commercial vessel.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The IDF 99th Division continued clearing operations in Gaza City on July 14. The IDF 3rd “Alexandroni” Brigade engaged and killed Palestinian fighters in close quarters combat in an unspecified part of Gaza City.[xv] The Alexandroni Brigade identified and directed an airstrike targeting a group of Palestinian fighters attempting to plant an improvised explosive device (IED) near Israeli forces.[xvi] Hamas fighters fired short-range rockets targeting Israeli forces operating near Tal al Hawa.[xvii]

Several Palestinian militias fired mortars and rockets targeting Israeli forces along the Netzarim Corridor on July 14.[xviii]

The IDF Air Force struck and killed Hamas fighters in a UNRWA-run school in Nuseirat, the central Gaza Strip, on July 14.[xix] IDF Southern Command, Shin Bet, and Israeli military intelligence directed an airstrike on Abu Oreiban school in Nuseirat.[xx] The IDF said that Palestinian fighters used the operational center to plan attacks against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip and to hide fighters.[xxi] Palestinian sources reported that thirteen Palestinians were killed in the airstrike.[xxii]

The IDF 162nd Division continued clearing operations in Rafah on July 14. The IDF Nahal Brigade directed airstrikes against an anti-tank guided missile launcher position that Palestinian fighters used to launch guided missiles at Israeli forces.[xxiii] The Nahal Brigade also directed an airstrike targeting a Palestinian fighter cell that posed a threat to Israeli forces.[xxiv] The IDF 401st Brigade destroyed tunnel shafts and militia infrastructure in the Rafah area.[xxv] Palestinian militias used rockets, mortars, rocket propelled grenades, and small arms to defend against Israeli forces operating in Rafah.[xxvi]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least three locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 13.[xxvii] A Palestinian Mujahideen Brigades fighter conducted car ramming and shooting attacks at the Nir Tzvi Junction in central Israel that injured four Israeli soldiers on July 14.[xxviii]

Palestinians demonstrated in at least four locations across the West Bank to protest Israeli airstrikes targeting Mohammad Deif and Rafe Salamah on July 13.[xxix] Palestinian media reported that Palestinians went on strike in various locations across the West Bank to condemn the July 13 strikes targeting senior Hamas commanders on July 14.[xxx]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
Expel the United States from Syria

Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least nine attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 13.[xxxi]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

The Houthis claimed two attacks targeting the Liberian-flagged Chrysalis crude oil tanker in the Red Sea and Bab al Mandab on July 12.[xxxii] The Houthis claimed that they used drones and ballistic and “naval” missiles to conduct the attacks.

Houthi media claimed on July 14 that the United States and United Kingdom conducted airstrikes targeting Buhais, Midi District, Hajjah Governorate, Yemen.[xxxiii]

[i] https://x.com/IDFSpokesperson/status/1812479611009216810

[ii] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strike-targets-hamas-military-chief-mohammed-deif-5ded1c9d ; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyx0qdkn45eo ; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/13/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-deif-mawasi/

[iii] https://x.com/IDFSpokesperson/status/1812479611009216810; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1812480675573833982 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/13/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-deif-mawasi/

[iv] https://x.com/IDFSpokesperson/status/1812479611009216810

[v] https://x.com/IDFSpokesperson/status/1812479611009216810

[vi] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1812481536542777835; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1812480675573833982

[vii] https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1812346666504077809

[viii] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1812408453618409525; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-seeks-proof-of-whether-strike-killed-hamas-military-chief-0f33965d?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos2

[ix] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1812526439494746458

[x] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-seeks-proof-of-whether-strike-killed-hamas-military-chief-0f33965d?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos2

[xi] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1812526439494746458

[xii] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-seeks-proof-of-whether-strike-killed-hamas-military-chief-0f33965d?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos2

[xiii] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1812408453618409525

[xiv] https://www.facebook.com/IsraeliPM/posts/pfbid02qhnHsHJJ3DQTYVKN7miVm8t1cYsRAYH1ej2o26Ng6KUmneKFD9ehVNEwE6xiU5KFl

[xv] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1812385402054934831

[xvi] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1812385402054934831

[xvii] https://t.me/qassambrigades/31375

[xviii] https://t.me/AymanGouda/6203; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6828; https://t.me/sarayaps/18320; https://t.me/qassambrigades/31375

[xix] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1812488832190673079; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1812499176665628718; https://t.me/moriahdoron/11823

[xx] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1812488832190673079

[xxi] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1812488834837250173; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1812499176665628718

[xxii] https://t.me/hamza20300/269631; https://x.com/kann_news/status/1812489299201237145

[xxiii] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1812385345679290672

[xxiv] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1812385345679290672; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1812385787415019780