Iran Update, July 27, 2024

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of the CTP-ISW July 27, 2024, Iran Update's Northern Israel map showed Majdal Shams in the wrong location. We have updated the map to fix this error. We apologize for the mistake. 

Iranian-backed militias continued attacks on US forces in Syria on July 26, likely as part of a new attack campaign aimed at expelling US forces from Iraq and Syria. Local Syrian sources and international journalists reported that Iranian-backed militants fired at least two rockets targeting US forces at Conoco Mission Support Site in eastern Syria.[i] Unspecified US officials confirmed to a BBC journalist that US forces struck the rocket launch site shortly after the attack.[ii] The US Defense Department has not publicly confirmed this report.  A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia “al Thawriyyun” previously claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on July 25.[iii] One of those rocket attacks targeted Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria.[iv] Al Thawriyyun said that their attacks on US forces would persist and become more advanced until US forces withdraw from Iraq.[v] CTP-ISW noted on July 17 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.[vi] This is the fifth attack on US forces in Iraq and Syria since late June 2024.[vii] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq paused its attack campaign in February 2024 but militias within the coalition recently threatened to resume their attacks against US forces.[viii]

The IDF assessed that Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a rocket attack that killed at least ten Israeli children and “youths” and wounded 30 other Israeli civilians in Majdal Shams, Golan Heights, on July 27.[ix] The IDF assessed that Hezbollah conducted the attack using at least 40 projectiles in three separate barrages.[x] Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack.[xi]  The rockets struck a soccer field in Majdal Shams, which is a Druze village in northern Israel.[xii]  Israeli media reported that many the wounded civilians are children.[xiii] Israeli media reported that this attack caused the most civilian casualties in northern Israel since October 2023.[xiv] The IDF's preliminary investigation concluded that while there was a rocket alert, the warning was too short.[xv] The attack followed an IDF attack that killed four Hezbollah fighters in Kfar Kila, Lebanon on July 27.[xvi] Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah previously threatened to strike new locations inside Israel in a televised speech on July 27.[xvii] Nasrallah stated that Hezbollah would hit new Israeli targets if Israel “continues to target civilians” in Lebanon. Hezbollah—not Israel—initiated the war on the northern border by conducting near daily attacks into northern Israel beginning on October 8.

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Israel submitted an updated ceasefire proposal to international mediators on July 27. A senior Israeli official and two knowledgeable sources told an Israeli journalist that Israeli gave US officials its updated proposal to deliver to Hamas.[xviii] Hamas has not confirmed receipt of the proposal at the time of this writing. Israel’s proposal is expected to include a vetting mechanism to facilitate the return of displaced Palestinians to the northern Gaza Strip.[xix] An Israeli official said that the proposal also changes the areas that the IDF would move to within the Gaza Strip as part of withdrawals from certain areas of the Strip during the first phase of the proposal.[xx] The proposal also reportedly enables Israeli forces to remain along the Philadelphi Corridor on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt during the first phase of the deal.[xxi] Senior US, Egyptian, and Qatari officials are expected to meet in Rome on July 28 to discuss the updated proposal.[xxii] Lebanese Hezbollah media cited a senior Palestinian source who said that Hamas would refuse to consider any new proposals. [xxiii]

Key Takeaways:

• Iraq and Syria: Iranian-backed militias continued attacks on US forces in Syria on July 26, likely as part of a new attack campaign aimed at expelling US forces from Iraq and Syria.
• Lebanon: The IDF assessed that Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a rocket attack that killed at least ten Israeli children and “youths” and wounded 30 other Israeli civilians in Majdal Shams, Golan Heights, on July 27.
• Ceasefire Negotiations: Israel submitted an updated ceasefire proposal to international mediators on July 27.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

Three Palestinian militias attacked Israeli forces with rocket-propelled grenades, mortars, and small arms fire in Tal al Hawa, south of Gaza City, on July 27.[xxiv] Hamas targeted Israeli forces in a multi-stage attack first using small arms and grenades to injure Israeli forces in Tal al Hawa before targeting the responding quick reaction force with a thermobaric rocket and small arms fire.[xxv] Palestinian sources reported on July 26 that Israeli forces re-entered Tal al Hawa after withdrawing on July 12.[xxvi]

The IDF said on July 27 that the IDF 252nd Division (Res.) deployed to the Netzarim Corridor over the past week.[xxvii] The 252nd Division replaced the 99th Division.[xxviii] It is not clear if the IDF also withdrew the 3rd Alexandroni Brigade (Res.) or the 8th Armored Brigade (Res.), both of which had been operating under the 99th Division headquarters. The 252nd Division has killed dozens of Palestinian fighters, destroyed hundreds of militia sites, and located several tunnel routes and shafts.[xxix] The division is comprised of two brigade combat teams and the 454th Artillery Brigade.[xxx] The division was previously deployed to the Gaza Strip during the IDF’s initial ground offensive in the northern Gaza Strip.[xxxi] Two Palestinian militias launched rockets and mortars targeting Israeli forces along the Netzarim Corridor on July 27.[xxxii] Hamas also mortared Israeli forces near the corridor in Juhor ad Dik.[xxxiii]

The IDF Air Force struck a school that the IDF said Hamas used as a command center in Deir al Balah on July 27.[xxxiv] The IDF said that it obtained intelligence that Hamas fighters used Khadija School to plan and conduct attacks.[xxxv] Hamas also reportedly developed and stored weapons at the school.[xxxvi] Hamas-affliated government sources reported that the strike killed 30 people and injured over 100.[xxxvii] The IDF said that it took precautions before the strike to limit civilian harm.[xxxviii] Hamas denied that it operated at the school and condemned the IDF strike.[xxxix]

The IDF 98th Division continued clearing operations in Khan Younis on July 27. The IDF 7th and 35^th Paratroopers Brigades raided above and below ground militia infrastructures to locate many weapons including shoulder-fired missiles, grenades, and Kalashnikov rifles.[xl] IDF 98th Division forces directed a strike on a Palestinian fighter cell in Khan Younis.[xli]  Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hamas conducted two combined mortar attack targeting IDF command centers in Bani Suheila and al Qarara where Israel forces have operated since July 22.[xlii] PIJ and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades mortared Israeli forces in several sectors of eastern Khan Younis.[xliii]

The IDF issued evacuation orders for areas of southern Khan Younis that were previously part of the al Mawasi humanitarian zone on July 27.[xliv] The IDF said that Palestinian fighters had conducted attacks from this area, including by firing rockets into Israel.[xlv] IDF said it would operate against militias active in the area.[xlvi] The IDF also reiterated directions for residents to temporarily evacuate from already declared “unsafe” zones in Khan Younis.[xlvii]

The IDF 162nd Division continued clearing operations in Rafah on July 27. The IDF Givati and 401st Brigades raided several militia sites and engaged armed Palestinian fighters at close range in Rafah.[xlviii] Palestinian fighters did not claim attacks targeting Israeli forces in Rafah on June 27.

The IDF Air Force struck dozens of Palestinian militia targets in the Gaza Strip on July 27.[xlix] IDF Southern Command directed a strike on a loaded rocket launcher in Zaytoun, southern Gaza City.[l]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Palestinian fighters attacked Israeli targets in at least three locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on July 26.[li] Palestinian attacks in Nablus triggered sustained fighting between Palestinian militias and the IDF there. Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces at a checkpoint north of Jenin.[lii] PIJ fighters targeted an Israeli settlement near Jenin.[liii]

Palestinian gunmen injured an IDF soldier near Nablus on July 27.[liv] Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades carried out a combined attack with PIJ targeting IDF forces at Beit Furik checkpoint in Nablus.[lv] The IDF reported that the gunmen opened fire from ”deep inside” Nablus.[lvi]  The IDF launched a raid into Balata Camp, Nablus to detain the fighters and conducted a drone strike targeting Palestinian fighters there.[lvii] Israeli media reported that the IDF airstrike targeted armed fighters who opened fired on IDF forces operating in Balata Camp.[lviii] Palestinian media reported several casualties.[lix]

  This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
• Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
• Expel the United States from Syria

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least twelve attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 26.[lx]

An IDF Navy Sa’ar class corvette intercepted a Hezbollah drone over Israel’s maritime exclusive economic zone on July 27.[lxi] An Israeli military correspondent reported that a navalized Iron Dome system shot down a Hezbollah drone that was reportedly heading towards Israeli offshore gas infrastructure.[lxii] The IDF intercepted the drone ”at a significant distance” from Israel’s Karish gas field in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.[lxiii] The IDF reported that there was no security threat to the offshore infrastructure. The IDF is investigating as of the time of writing whether the drone was a one-way attack drone or a reconnaissance platform.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance

US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed six Houthi drones (UAVs) over Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen on July 26.[lxiv] CENTCOM also destroyed three Houthi uncrewed surface vessels (USV) off the coast of Yemen. CENTCOM determined that both the drones and uncrewed surface vessels presented an imminent threat to US and coalition forces, and merchant vessels in the area.