Iran Update, June 15, 2024

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Note: this assessment has been updated to reflect that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed one drone and one cruise missile attack targeting Haifa Port, Israel, since CTP–ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters have continued to defend against Israeli forces in the Saudi neighborhood, western Rafah. Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades mortared Israeli forces in eastern Zaytoun.
• West Bank: Israeli forces engaged PIJ and the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades fighters in Kfar Dan.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Yemen: US CENTCOM destroyed seven Houthi radars in a Houthi-controlled area in Yemen. Crew from a commercial vessel that the Houthis attacked evacuated the vessel, marking the second such incident in 24 hours.
• Region: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed two separate drone attacks targeting Haifa, Israel.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades conducted two separate mortar attacks targeting Israeli forces in eastern Zaytoun on June 15.[i] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades also mortared an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) site.[ii]

Hamas and the Nasser Salah ad Din Brigades conducted mortar and rocket attacks targeting Israeli forces along the Netzarim Corridor on June 15.[iii]

Palestinian fighters have continued to defend against Israeli forces in the Saudi neighborhood, western Rafah, since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on June 14. Hamas and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades conducted rocket propelled grenade attacks targeting IDF vehicles.[iv] The National Resistance Brigades conducted an improved explosive device (IED) attack targeting an IDF bulldozer.[v]

Unidentified Palestinian fighters conducted an IED attack targeting the IDF 401^st Armored Brigade in Tel al Sultan on June 15, killing eight IDF soldiers. The IED attack struck an IDF Namer armored combat engineering vehicle (CEV), damaging the vehicle and killing the occupants.[vi] The vehicle was traveling in a convoy to a captured building for forces to rest when the attack happened. The IDF explained that the CEV should have prevented injuries to troops inside and suggested that the Palestinian fighters may have planted the IED on the vehicle.

Palestinian fighters have conducted at least four indirect fire attacks into southern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on June 14.[vii] Hamas and PIJ fighters launched a salvo of rockets targeting an IDF site at Sufa.[viii] Hamas also launched a salvo of rockets targeting the Kisuffim site.[ix] PIJ and the al Nasser Salah ad Din Brigades conducted a combined rocket attack targeting Kisuffim.[x] IDF Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee reported that Palestinian fighters fired five rockets from a humanitarian zone in the central Gaza Strip targeting Kissufim and the surrounding area.[xi] Adraee said that three munitions fell short into the Gaza Strip and the other two landed in open areas in Israeli territory. The Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades launched a salvo of rockets targeting Israeli forces stationed at the Kerem Shalom border crossing.[xii] An Israeli military correspondent reported on June 15 that one rocket was launched from the Khan Younis area and fell in an open area of the Eshkol Regional Council bordering the Gaza Strip.[xiii]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Israeli forces have engaged PIJ and the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades fighters in Kfar Dan since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on June 14.[xiv]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
• Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
• Expel the United States from Syria

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted four attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on June 14.[xv]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

US CENTCOM destroyed seven Houthi radar sites in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on June 14.[xvi] CENTCOM additionally destroyed a Houthi drone launched from Yemen over the Red Sea. CENTCOM also destroyed two Houthi unmanned surface vessels in the Red Sea.

The crew from an unspecified commercial vessel that the Houthis attacked evacuated and abandoned the vessel on June 15, marking the second such incident in 24 hours.[xvii] The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on June 15 that the vessel is no longer in command of the crew, on fire, and sinking. The vessel is currently 30 nautical miles northeast of Djibouti. The Houthis struck the vessel 98 nautical miles east of Aden, Yemen, on June 13 with three unknown projectiles.[xviii] The crew from another unspecified commercial vessel evacuated their craft on June 14 following a Houthi strike.[xix]

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed one drone and one cruise missile attack targeting Haifa Port, Israel, since CTP–ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.[20] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it fired one unspecified drone targeting Haifa on June 14 and one Arqab cruise missile targeting Haifa on June 15.[21] The IDF acknowledged that a suspicious aerial target was launched ”from the east” toward Israel on June 15.[22] The IDF intercepted the suspicious aerial target and reported that the object did not enter Israeli airspace. The IDF activated red alert sirens in the Naora area of northern Israel and reported no casualties. Israeli officials and media have not commented on that attack at the time of this writing.