Iran Update, March 30, 2023

March 30, 2023, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Contributors: Anya Caraiani, Aleeshyah Lightfoot, and James Motamed

Iran and its proxies may target US forces in Syria in retaliation for multiple Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and Iranian-backed forces in Syria on March 30. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted two airstrikes targeting a likely Iranian or proxy officer and an Iranian-backed militant facility near Damascus on March 30.[i] Syrian media reported that the first airstrike targeted a “pro-Iranian” foreigner traveling in the vicinity of a possible Iranian air defense site, suggesting that the target was an individual of some significance to the Iranian project in Syria.[ii] CTP previously reported that the IDF likely targeted an IRGC Quds Force facility and headquarters in the same general area on February 18, indicating that senior Iranian and proxy officers are present there.[iii] Iranian leadership has previously warned that it holds the US accountable for Israeli airstrikes in Syria, and Iranian proxies have attacked US positions on several occasions in retaliation for such airstrikes, including the March 23 drone attack that killed an American contractor in northeastern Syria.[iv]

Iranian officials and state media outlets have signaled their readiness to continue the escalation cycle against the US in recent days. The Iranian Advisory Center in Syria—a likely front for the IRGC Quds Force—issued a statement on March 24 warning that Iran’s Axis of Resistance can retaliate against any US attacks in Syria.[v] Iranian-state and proxy media echoed these remarks, emphasizing that the Axis of Resistance is prepared to respond to attacks on its forces.[vi] State-controlled IRNA similarly reported on March 28 that some of the recent Iranian-backed attacks on US forces demonstrated that “the resistance forces are ready to respond to any American aggression.”[vii] IRNA added that the American bases in Syria are ”vulnerable,“ despite having air defenses.[viii] IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency separately reported on March 26 that Iran gave an “iron fist” response to the US in Syria and that the US decided to engage in a conflict with the Axis of Resistance in Syria because of its “reduction (in) position in regional equations.”[ix] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated on March 29 that Iran responded, “decisively and clearly to the American side” in “the events that took place east of the Euphrates."[x]  The IDF’s latest airstrikes may therefore trigger Iranian-backed strikes on US forces meant to, in fact, deter Israeli airstrikes.

Key Takeaways

• Iran and its proxies may target US forces in Syria in retaliation for multiple Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and Iranian-backed forces in Syria on March 30.
• At least three protests occurred in three cities across three provinces.
• Iranian officials continued discussing the mandatory hijab law with increased urgency.
• The Iranian rial depreciated from 538,500 rials to one US dollar on March 29 to 549,000 rials to one US dollar.
• Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated that the Iranian parliament could impose a deadline for nuclear negotiations during an interview with Al Jazeera.
• The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that the US must compensate Iran for freezing its assets and declared that it had no jurisdiction over the 1.7 billion US dollars' worth of Iranian assets frozen in the US.
• IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani in an unannounced visit to Baghdad.
• Anti-regime outlet Iran International published a purported interrogation video of an Intelligence and Security Ministry officer discussing Iran’s covert operations in Africa.

Internal Security and Protest Activity

At least three protests occurred in three cities across three provinces on March 30. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Haft Tappeh, Khuzestan Province[xi]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Haft Tappeh Sugarcane Factory workers

Saghez, Kurdistan Province[xii]

• Size: Small to Medium
• Demographic: Mourners
• Notes: Gathered around Mahsa Amini’s grave

Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province[xiii]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Mourners

Iranian officials continued discussing the mandatory hijab law with increased urgency on March 30. Masal County, Gilan Province Governor Gholam Reza Gil Chalani warned that “[hijab violations] will get worse in the summer” if the regime does not act against unveiled women.[xiv] Parliamentary Cultural Committee spokesperson Ahmad Rastineh separately stated that officials who disregard hijab violations are more guilty than unveiled women themselves.[xv] Ahvaz Friday Prayer Leader Hojjat ol Eslam Mir Ahmad Reza Hajiti additionally stated that inflation and hijab violations are the two main problems facing Iran.[xvi] These remarks from a wide array of officials highlight the extent to which the hijab issue continues to dominate much of the internal Iranian political discourse. Regime officials may be discussing the hijab issue with greater urgency because failing to enforce the law may encourage more women to violate it, especially as Iran enters the summer months. The regime has discussed various methods—including physical confrontation, ‘smart’ and advanced surveillance, and social pressure—to enforce mandatory veiling in recent months, as CTP previously reported.[xvii] It is unclear whether these approaches will achieve the regime’s desired effect of increasing hijab compliance in the coming months, however.

Economic Affairs

The Iranian rial depreciated from 538,500 rials to one US dollar on March 29 to 549,000 rials to one US dollar on March 30.[xviii] Iranian social media users circulated footage of individuals in Tehran lining up to buy US dollars on the same date.[xix]

Nuclear Program

Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated that the Iranian parliament could impose a deadline for nuclear negotiations during an interview with Al Jazeera on March 29.[xx] Amir Abdollahian further expressed that “the window of the talks to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action won’t remain open forever.” Amir Abdollahian likely made this remark to pressure US officials to return to the nuclear negotiations. Amir Abdollahian gave an interview with CNN on March 1 likely in an attempt to convince the US to return to the suspended nuclear negotiations, as CTP previously assessed.[xxi]

Foreign Policy and Diplomacy

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled on March 30 that the US must compensate Iran for freezing its assets and declared that it had no jurisdiction over the 1.7 billion US dollars' worth of Iranian assets frozen in the US.[xxii] The ICJ ruling was on a claims tribunal between the US and Iran. Iran filed the case with the ICJ in 2016, claiming that the US had violated its 1955 “Treaty of Amity, Economic Relations and Consular Rights” with Iran.

External Security and Military Affairs

IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani in an unannounced visit to Baghdad on March 30.[xxiii] Ghani also reportedly met with the Coordination Framework—a loose coalition of pro-Iranian political parties—in Baghdad and separately attended the funeral of Sayyid Sadiq al Hakim in Najaf, a prominent Shia religious figure and relative of the leader of the Iranian-backed Wisdom Movement, later that evening.[xxiv] Unverified reporting claimed that Moqtada al Sadr rejected a meeting with Ghaani on March 30.[xxv] Coordination Framework leadership and Sadr recently clashed over new Framework-backed election laws that could sideline the Sadrist Movement in future elections. Sadr has issued several emphasizing his popularity and alluding to a response. Ghaani may have sought to deescalate tensions between Sadr and Coordination Framework leadership. Ghaani last visited Iraq on January 16 and met with senior Shia Coordination Framework officials and proxy militias.[xxvi]

Anti-regime outlet Iran International published a purported interrogation video of an Intelligence and Security Ministry officer on March 29 discussing Iran’s covert operations in Africa.[xxvii] Iran International identified Hamidreza[xxviii]mmad Abraheh as an intelligence officer operating in Tanzania. Abraheh stated that his main mission in Tanzania was to build a network of locals with access to high- and low-ranking Tanzanian officials to support intelligence collection and operations over the next five to ten years. Abraheh added that the ministry's intelligence collection efforts were focused on the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Azerbaijan and referenced tensions between the Ministry and IRGC Intelligence Organization. tensions between the MOIS and IRGC Intelligence Organizations.

The Saudi Ambassador to Iraq Abdulaziz al Shammari and the Syrian Ambassador to Iraq Satam Jadan al Dandah may have discussed rapprochement between the two countries at an Iftar banquet hosted by Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Mohammad Kazem al Sadegh on March 30.[xxix] Sadegh is a former Quds Force officer.[xxx]  Saudi Arabia is negotiating a rapprochement deal with Syria, according to unnamed sources in Western news outlets.[xxxi]