Iran Update, May 2, 2023

May 2, 2023, 5:00 pm ET

Contributor: Andie Parry

The Iran Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.  

Iranian officials and members of the clerical establishment have expressed increased concern over the safety of religious figures in recent days. Former Intelligence and Security Minister and Shia cleric Hojjat ol Eslam Ali Fallahian called on Friday prayer leaders to learn self-defense during an interview with reformist news outlet Entekhab on May 2.[i] The Islamic Propaganda Coordination Council—a regime body responsible for organizing official ceremonies and public events—separately issued a statement on May 2 urging law enforcement and security services to decisively confront “thugs."[ii] The council issued this statement in response to the killing of Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Abbas Ali Soleimani on April 26. The council chairman—Mohammad Hossein Musa Pour—is a cleric and former governor of Qom City, Qom Province.[iii] Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan additionally discussed Soleimani’s murder with Qom Friday Prayer Leader Ayatollah Mohammad Saedi on April 29, possibly to discuss measures to protect clerics.[iv]

Iranian-backed Syrian militias may be setting rhetorical conditions to attack US forces in response to Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo Province on May 1. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes on Aleppo International Airport and a former chemical weapons production and storage site in Safirah, Aleppo Province.[v] The Assad regime produced and stored chemical weapons at the Safirah site for use in barrel bombs throughout Aleppo Province in 2013, but CTP has observed no indications that Iranian-backed forces use the site for the same purpose.[vi] The Aleppo International Airport airstrikes disabled the runway and killed three Syrian Arab Army air defense battalion personnel and possibly a Lebanese Hezbollah field commander.[vii] The airstrikes also triggered a series of secondary explosions, suggesting that the airstrikes targeted munitions stored at the airport.[viii] Iranian-backed militants traveled to the Safirah facility after the airstrikes, likely to secure the area.[ix]

A popular pro-Iranian Twitter account claimed without evidence that the Israeli aircraft traveled through Jordanian and US-controlled airspace in Syria, implying that the US greenlighted the airstrikes.[x] Iranian leaders frequently threaten to hold the US accountable for Israeli actions. Iranian-affiliated social media accounts and militias have furthermore accused the US of tacit involvement in Israeli airstrikes to justify attacks against US forces in eastern Syria in the past.[xi]

Key Takeaways

• Iranian officials and members of the clerical establishment have expressed increased concern over the safety of religious figures in recent days.
• Iranian-backed Syrian militias may be setting rhetorical conditions to attack US forces in response to Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo Province.
• At least 12 protests occurred in 12 cities across 12 provinces.
• Israeli media reported that Saudi and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) officials are considering holding talks to improve relations, citing an unidentified European official.

Internal Security and Protest Activity

At least 12 protests occurred in 12 cities across 12 provinces on May 2. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province[xii]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province[xiii]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province[xiv]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Tehran City, Tehran Province[xv]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Shahr-e Kord, Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province[xvi]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Shiraz, Fars Province[xvii]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Ghazvin City, Ghazvin Province[xviii]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province[xix]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Ilam City, Ilam Province[xx]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province[xxi]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Arak, Markazi Province[xxii]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province[xxiii]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Retired telecommunications workers

CTP recorded student poisoning incidents in four cities across three provinces on May 2.

Iranian officials and state media are trying to counter recent reports about pro-regime actors confronting women over the mandatory hijab law. Iranian media reported that several “thugs” were harassing women in Sabzevar, Khorasan Razavi Province on April 28 and murdered Hamid Reza al Daghi after he tried to defend these women.[xxiv] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami praised al Daghi as a “hero in the defense of chastity and honor” in a condolence message to his family.[xxv] Several regime-affiliated outlets additionally reported on the outpouring of popular support for al Daghi, publishing footage of a heavily populated funeral procession and numerous letters praising him.[xxvi] Regime loyalists and morality patrols have recently physically and verbally harassed women over mandatory veiling, which CTP previously reported.[xxvii]

Domestic Affairs

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stressed educators’ role in indoctrinating Iranian youth and indirectly criticized the Raisi administration during a meeting with teachers on May 2.[xxviii] Khamenei called on teachers to encourage their students to go to mosques and stated that textbooks must include more information on Islamic concepts and famous Iranian and Islamic historical figures. Khamenei additionally criticized the “continuous change” in education ministers, partly referring to former Education Minister Yousef Nouri’s resignation on April 2 and President Ebrahim Raisi’s appointment of Reza Morad Sahraei as acting education minister on April 3.[xxix]

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf renewed his calls for “reforms in the area of governance” on May 2. Ghalibaf stated that disorganized decision-making has prevented the regime from resolving the country’s problems and emphasized the need for unspecified governmental reforms during an intergovernmental review and planning implementation board meeting.[xxx] He also mentioned the need for further cooperation between the Expediency Discernment Council and Parliament during a meeting with senior regime officials.[xxxi] Ghalibaf similarly expressed the urgent need for efficiency and governmental reform as a way of addressing protester grievances on February 23.[xxxii]

Economic Affairs

IRGC officials and IRGC-affiliated news outlets criticized the Raisi administration’s economic mismanagement on May 2. Tasnim News Agency published an article criticizing President Ebrahim Raisi for reneging on a promise to allocate one percent of mine sales in West Azerbaijan Province to the development of this province.[xxxiii] IRGC Deputy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi separately blamed Iran’s economic challenges on “authorities not fulfilling their duties” during a ceremony honoring IRGC teachers.[xxxiv] These criticisms follow mounting pressure from actors across the political spectrum on President Ebrahim Raisi to fix Iran’s economy in recent days, as CTP previously reported.[xxxv]

Foreign Policy and Diplomacy

Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval met with senior Iranian officials to discuss Indian-Iranian cooperation in Tehran on May 1. President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian both stressed the importance of economic and broader strategic cooperation between the two countries in their separate meetings with Doval.[xxxvi] The national security councils of both countries published a joint statement similarly emphasizing the need for cooperation on international development projects, fighting terrorism, and addressing the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan among other issues.[xxxvii] Doval met with Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani on May 1, which CTP previously reported.[xxxviii]

External Security and Military Affairs

Iranian-backed Palestinian militias conducted several mortar and rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel in retaliation for the death of an imprisoned high-ranking Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) official. The Hamas-led joint operations room in Gaza claimed responsibility for at least 30 mortars and rockets launched into southern Israel on May 1-2.[xxxix] Israel’s emergency medical service reported three injuries, and local imagery confirms damage to populated areas in Sderot.[xl] The joint operations room stated that Palestinian militants fired the rockets in response to the death of PIJ leader Sheikh Khader Adnan, who died after an 87-day hunger strike in Israeli custody.[xli] Palestinian militias and other elements of the Axis of Resistance published rhetoric condemning Israel for Adnan’s death, suggesting a degree of coordination on the messaging.[xlii] Iranian state-controlled IRNA recirculated Lebanese Hezbollah’s condolence message and Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani called Adnan’s detention “a crime against humanity”.[xliii]

Israeli media reported that Saudi and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) officials are considering holding talks to improve relations, citing an unidentified European official. I24 reported that LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed initiating talks between Saudi Arabia and LH on April 29.[xliv] This reporting coincides with Abdollahian‘s visit to Beirut on April 28.[xlv] I24 also reported that Riyadh is interested in starting negotiations with LH via a third party.[xlvi]It is unclear what any potential LH-Saudi talks would entail, although these potential talks are likely part of the broader rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in recent weeks.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani appointed Badr Organization-affiliated Major General Akram Mudannaf as head of the Iraqi Army’s Diyala Operations Command on May 2. Mudannaf replaced former Diyala operations commander Major General Ali Fadel Omran, whom former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi appointed in January 2022.[xlvii] Omran will be transferred to the Iraqi Army’s Western Ninewah Province Operations Command to fill the position that Mudannaf vacated.[xlviii] CTP has previously reported that Badr militants are committing acts of sectarian violence against the Sunni population in Diyala Province, which is, in turn, setting conditions to allow ISIS to resurge.[xlix] Sudani assigning a Badr Organization-affiliated official to oversee security in Diyala will allow the Badr Organization to consolidate additional control over the area and thereby facilitate additional sectarian violence.