Iran Update, September 19, 2023

The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates Monday through Friday. To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched an interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions.

Key Takeaways

1. Iran is expanding its military infrastructure in eastern Syria as part of its effort to secure a permanent presence there.
2. Iranian and Iraqi officials reported on September 19 that Iraq fulfilled its commitment to disarm and relocate anti-Iranian regime Kurdish militias in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Iranian Activities in the Levant

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant especially in Syria. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Iran is expanding its military infrastructure in eastern Syria as part of its effort to secure a permanent presence there. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force plans to build up its Soleimani base near Mayadin into the largest Iranian military base abroad, according to local Syrian reporting. This project supports the Iranian effort to become the dominant power in Deir ez Zor Province in eastern Syria. This project ultimately furthers the long-standing Iranian effort to transform Syria into a platform from which Iran can project military strength and facilitate the transfer of arms and military equipment to its so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

• The Soleimani base project involves transferring unspecified weapons from the Imam Ali base near the Iraq-Syria border to the Soleimani base.[i] The Imam Ali base is currently the largest Iranian military base abroad, which the IRGC built in 2018 and uses to house drones, missiles, and fighters.[ii] The IRGC began building the Soleimani base--also known as the Ain Ali base--in 2022.[iii] It is unclear at this time exactly what military function the base serves. The United States and Israel have both conducted airstrikes on it previously.[iv]
• Iranian leaders instructed the IRGC Quds Force to achieve “total hegemony” in Deir ez Zor Province in May 2023.[v] The IRGC Quds Force has since then built new military infrastructure in eastern Syria, including drone runways and headquarters, and conducted a series of activities meant to undermine the stability of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. These activities also support the Iranian campaign to expel the United States from Syria.
• Iranian leaders have invested tremendous energy, resources, and time since 2011 toward entrenching their military influence throughout Syria and transferring advanced capabilities, such as drones and missiles, there. The deployment of these capabilities throughout Syria diversifies the avenues from which the IRGC can conduct attacks against US and Israeli targets. Iranian leaders also view Syria as one of the principal routes through which they can funnel military arms, equipment, and personnel to Axis of Resistance members in Lebanon and Palestine.

Iranian Activities in Iraq

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout Iraq. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Iranian and Iraqi officials reported on September 19 that Iraq fulfilled its commitment to disarm and relocate anti-Iranian regime Kurdish militias in Iraqi Kurdistan.[vi] Iranian leaders regularly accuse these groups of stoking civil unrest in Iran and reached a security agreement with the Iraqi central government to address the matter in March 2023. Iranian leaders threatened to conduct attacks against these groups in Iraqi Kurdistan if Iraqi authorities did not disarm and relocate the groups as part of the agreement by September 19. Iranian and Iraqi officials acknowledging the full implementation of the deal supports CTP’s assessment that an Iranian attack into Iraqi Kurdistan is unlikely in the coming days.[vii] CTP also assessed that Iran deployed units from the IRGC Ground Forces to the Iran-Iraq border on September 13 to coerce Iraqi authorities to full implement the agreement.[viii]