Iran Update, September 25, 2023

The Iran Update covers provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates weekly on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Key Takeaways

1. The People’s Republic of China and Syria signed several development and technology cooperation agreements on September 22, which may compete with reconstruction agreements that Iran and Syria signed in May.
2. A drone strike near Mayadin City on September 25 caused multiple casualties among the Iranian-affiliated Arab tribesmen who were deploying to Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled territory in eastern Syria. The deployment of Arab tribesmen to combat the SDF is consistent with ISW’s assessment that the tribal insurgency will likely support Iran’s efforts to establish a grassroots resistance to expel US forces from Syria.

Iranian Activities in the Levant

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Syria signed several development and technology cooperation agreements on September 22, which may compete with reconstruction agreements that Iran and Syria signed in May.[1] Syrian President Bashar al Assad and PRC President Xi Jinping elevated the countries’ bilateral relations to a “strategic partnership” on September 22.[2] Syria was already a member of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the PRC has expressed a willingness to assist in Syrian reconstruction for several years, however.[3] The PRC has more economic resources than Iran to support reconstruction projects in Syria.

• The establishment of a “strategic partnership” with Syria is a common PRC foreign policy practice. The PRC has strategic partnerships with over 100 states and uses the relationships instead of bilateral treaties to structure its bilateral political and economic relations.[4]
  It has “strategic partnerships” or stronger ties across the Middle East and even established a strategic partnership with the Palestinian Authority in Ju[5]
• The strategic partnership with Syria includes economic and reconstruction memoranda of understanding (MOUs) PRC Prime Minister Li Qiang said would provide support for reconstruction and consolidation of stability.[6] Neither the PRC nor the Syrian regime specified the projects the PRC will support or the amount of money they entail, however.
• Iran and Syria signed MOUs covering oil, energy, transportation, reconstruction, and communications technology in May 2023 and have since held several follow up meetings.[7] Iran is particularly interested in developing a rail link through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean.[8]

The Syrian regime will continue to rely on Iran and Russia for military support. Xi and Assad have not released any security cooperation announcements, nor did Syrian military officials accompany Assad to China.[9] Iran, however, has built up a large military footprint in Syria, as ISW has previously reported.[10] Iran reasserted its military commitment to Syria on September 21 during a joint Iran-Syria military exercise led by commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force.[11] Russia has also remained active in Syria despite the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has provided critical air support to regime forces in the conflict against rebels in Idlib Province.[12]

A drone strike that destroyed a bridge near Mayadin City on September 25 caused multiple casualties among the Iranian-affiliated Arab tribesmen who were deploying to Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled territory in eastern Syria, according to Syrian opposition media.^[13] The tribesmen were crossing the bridge to support the Arab tribes’ fight against the US-backed SDF, which has been ongoing since mid-August and has developed into an insurgency that is fracturing the SDF.^[14] ISW previously reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force is forming a tribal militia to strengthen the Arab tribe's control of SDF-controlled territory and fight SDF forces.^[15] The deployment of Arab tribesmen to combat the SDF is consistent with ISW’s assessment that the tribal insurgency will likely support Iran’s efforts to establish a grassroots resistance to expel US forces from Syria.