September 06, 2024

Iran Update, September 7, 2024

Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells and Brian Carter

Iran Update, September 7, 2024

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force (IAF) conducted three airstrikes targeting Hamas command and control centers in Gaza City and Deir al Balah since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on September 6. One airstrike in Deir al Balah killed PIJ’s eastern Deir al Balah Battalion commander Hatem Abu al Jedian and PIJ’s southern Deir al Balah Battalion commander Abdullah Khattab.
Ceasefire Negotiations: CIA Director Bill Burns said on September 7 that whether Israel and Hamas accept a new ceasefire proposal will be determined by political will.
Northern Israel: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least 13 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 6.
Yemen: US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed one Houthi drone and one Houthi “support vehicle” in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on September 6.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The IDF Air Force (IAF) conducted three airstrikes targeting Hamas command and control centers in Gaza City and Deir al Balah since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on September 6.[1] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that the IAF struck command and control centers in the Amru Ibn al Aas school and Halima al Saadia school in Gaza City. An IAF airstrike on September 6 targeting a Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) command center in Deir al Balah killed two PIJ battalion commanders.[2] The IDF reported that the airstrike killed PIJ’s eastern Deir al Balah Battalion commander Hatem Abu al Jedian and PIJ’s southern Deir al Balah Battalion commander Abdullah Khattab. Khattab led a group of PIJ fighters in an attack in southern Israel on October 7.[3]

The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed one rocket and mortar attack targeting Israeli forces around the Netzarim Corridor on September 7.[4] The IDF has operated around the Netzarim Corridor in recent weeks in order to expand IDF control over territory along the corridor.[5]

CIA Director Bill Burns said on September 7 that whether Israel and Hamas accept a new ceasefire proposal will be determined by political will.[6] Burns said that he had hoped to have a “more detailed” ceasefire agreement to propose to Israel and Hamas in the coming days and said that the remaining “10%” of the deal contains the most challenging obstacles. Israel, Hamas, and international mediators have not resolved opposing demands relating to the hostage-prisoner release and the presence of Israeli forces along the Philadelphi Corridor.[7] US officials have also recently questioned Hamas’ willingness to reach a deal after its execution of six Israeli hostages.[8] Israeli Army Radio reported on September 6 that Israeli officials are “pessimistic” and added that “the chances of a deal are slim.”[9]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

CTP-ISW did not observe any clashes in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 6. This marks the first time CTP-ISW did not observe any West Bank clashes since June 17, 2024.[10]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
Expel the United States from Syria

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least 13 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 6.[11] Lebanese Hezbollah claimed a drone attack on the IDF’s 91st Division headquarters in Ayelet HaShahar on September 7.[12] Israel Army Radio confirmed that 2 to 3 drones “exploded” in the Ayelet HaShahar area on September 7 but did not cause any casualties.[13]