Iran Updates December 2023

Iran Update, December 31, 2023

1. Israeli forces advanced into Beit Lahiya for clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias attempted to defend against Israeli forces operating in Tuffah and al Daraj in Gaza City. Palestinian militias did not claim any attacks in Jabalia City and Sheikh Radwan neighborhood.
2. Palestinian militias are clashing with Israeli forces in al Bureij in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
3. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis for the fourth straight week as Palestinian militia fighters tried to defend against Israeli advances. Palestinian militias have sustained almost daily attacks on Israeli forces in Khan Younis since Israel forces advanced into the southern Gaza Strip in early December.
4. Israel has withdrawn five IDF brigades from the Gaza Strip, which is consistent with Israeli forces transitioning to a third phase of operations. The third phase will include the end of major combat operations, a “reduction in forces” in the Gaza Strip, the release of reservists, a “transition to targeted raids,” and the establishment of a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip.
5. An unspecified Israeli intelligence officer told the Economist that most of Hamas’ command structure is “gone” and that Hamas is no longer operating as a military organization. CTP-ISW assesses that at least three of 30 Hamas battalions in the five brigades are combat ineffective, at least eight battalions are degraded, and at least 12 battalions are currently under intense IDF pressure.
6. An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that IDF sources believe the intensification of fighting on the ground in the Gaza Strip has contributed to a reduction in Palestinian rocket capabilities. Palestinian militias did not claim any indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
7. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in six locations across the West Bank.
8. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. LH Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem stated that LH will not allow displaced Israeli civilians to return to their homes in northern Israel until Israel halts its military operations in the Gaza Strip.
9. Iranian-backed militants conducted two attacks on US forces stationed at Conoco Mission Support Site and al Omar oil field on December 30. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted two attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 31.
10. Houthi fighters conducted two attacks on the MV Maersk Hangzhou container ship in the southern Red Sea. The Houthis likely focused on attacking a Maersk-operated vessel in particular because Maersk announced that it would resume its operations in the Red Sea on December 24. These Houthi attacks are part of a broader regional escalation that Iran is leading against the United States and Israel.
11. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian discussed the Israel-Hamas war with senior Houthi official Mohammad Abdul Salam in Tehran.

Iran Update, December 30, 2023

1. Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City. Israeli forces continued executing tasks consistent with holding operations in some areas of Gaza City. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Beit Lahiya and Sheikh Radwan in the northern Gaza Strip.
2. Palestinian militias are launching attacks from civilian-populated areas of al Bureij as Israeli forces advance clearing operations in the Central Governorate. Palestinian militias claimed several attacks on Israeli forces north and east of al Bureij, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that the IDF appears to be isolating Hamas’ Bureij Battalion and other Palestinian militias there before reducing them.
3. The IDF continued to make ground advances in and around Khan Younis. At least five Palestinian militias attempted to defend against Israeli advances into Khan Younis. Palestinian militia fighters attacked Israeli forces south of Khan Younis.
4. Hamas and PFLP officials messaged a unified and positive position on the Egyptian peace proposal and accused Israel of spreading disinformation about the negotiations.
5. Palestinian fighters conducted at least two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in three locations across the West Bank.
7. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
8. The Axis of Resistance may escalate further against US forces in the region around the four-year anniversary of the US killing Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2024. The IRGC Quds Force is engaging with senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia and political leaders likely to discuss their military and political campaign to expel US forces.
9. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani ordered the opening of Celebration Square in Baghdad’s Green Zone for New Year’s Eve.
10. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria.
11. The Shia Coordination Framework—a loose coalition of Iranian-backed political parties—is conducting a series of political maneuvers to try to increase its political influence in Basra.
12. Israel was likely responsible for a series of airstrikes targeting Aleppo International Airport and Iranian and Iranian-backed targets in Albu Kamal, Syria, to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to Lebanese Hezbollah.
13. The Houthi military spokesperson warned the United States against “escalating” with the Houthis and rallying other nations to protect Israeli shipping.

Iran Update, December 29, 2023

1. Iran has increased its production rate of highly enriched uranium (HEU). This development is consistent with CTP-ISW’s long-standing assessment that Iran has developed a nuclear program that it intends to use to produce a nuclear arsenal.
2. IDF operations in Daraj and Tuffah may have degraded the al Qassem Brigades’ command and control of its battalion there.
3. The IDF continued clearing operations near Khuzaa, east of Khan Younis, on December 29. The IDF also said that it is “expanding operations” in Khan Younis.
4. Khan Younis Brigade commander Mohammed Sinwar may be increasing his power within Hamas’ military wing at the expense of Mohammed Deif.
5. Israeli aircraft conducted two airstrikes targeting Damascus International Airport and air defense systems in southern Syria to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to Lebanese Hezbollah on December 28.
6. Two key Iranian proxies in Iraq called for the expulsion of US forces from Iraq on December 29.
7. The US Treasury Department sanctioned a Turkish and Yemeni financial network that enabled the IRGC Quds Force to fund the Houthis.

Iran has increased its production rate of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The United States and the E3 confirmed in a joint statement on December 28 that Iran has increased its enrichment rate of 60 percent purity uranium.[i] Iran has been stockpiling 60 percent HEU since April 2021.[ii] Iran decreased its enrichment rate and HEU stockpile after it reached an informal nuclear agreement with the United States in August 2023.[iii] Western media reported that the United States refroze Iranian financial assets released as part of the agreement in October.[iv] Iran’s current stockpile of 60 percent HEU stands at 128.3 kilograms as of October 28.[v]

This development is consistent with CTP-ISW's long-standing assessment that Iran has developed a nuclear program that it intends to use to produce a nuclear arsenal.[vi] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defines 25 kilograms of 20 percent or more enriched HEU as a “significant quantity” for “which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.”[vii] Iran has stockpiled at least five bombs worth of HEU, given Iran’s current stockpile of 128.3 kilograms of 60 percent HEU. Iran previously planned to produce nuclear warheads for ballistic and cruise missiles as part of its pre-2003 nuclear weapons program[viii] The stockpiling of HEU is one of the key steps Iran would have to pursue to develop an arsenal and has previously conducted work on the other key steps in weaponization and delivery vehicles.[ix] The Iranian enrichment infrastructure is also designed for a speedy mass production of HEU and/or weapons-grade uranium for multiple nuclear weapons.[x]

Iran has no use for 60 percent HEU other than for use in a compact nuclear explosive or to further enrich it to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium. Sixty percent HEU can only be used for nuclear weapons and does not have an alternate civilian purpose. The required enriched uranium purity for energy purposes is between 3 to 5 percent, and medical research reactors use 20 percent HEU.[xi] Iran is now capable of producing weapons-grade uranium at a much faster rate than it would be if it only had a stockpile of lower than 60 percent enriched uranium.

Iran Update, December 28, 2023

1. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani announced that his administration will begin procedures to remove International Coalition forces from Iraq during a press conference on December 28, likely due to pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. An Iraqi decision to expel US forces will very likely create space for ISIS to rapidly resurge in Syria within 12 to 24 months and then threaten Iraq .
2. Hamas and its Palestinian allies are trying to shape peace negotiations in a way that is incompatible with the stated Israeli war aims. Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is likely using Israeli hostages he holds as leverage to keep Hamas’ Gaza Strip leaders at the table during these negotiations—rather than delegating such negotiations exclusively to Hamas’ external leadership.
3. The Israel Defense Forces continued clearing operations in Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods in the northern Gaza Strip. The IDF destroyed three tunnel shafts while searching a hospital and school.
4. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad attempted to defend against Israeli advances in Bureij.
5. Palestinian militias continued trying to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Khan Younis.
6. Palestinian fighters conducted three indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
7. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in 11 locations across the West Bank.
8. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
9. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed attacks on several new locations across the Middle East. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for a rocket attack targeting US forces at US Conoco Mission Support Site in northeastern Syria.
10. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki met with senior Iranian-backed Iraqi actors.
11. The Iranian regime held a funeral ceremony for killed IRGC Brigadier General Razi Mousavi in Tehran.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani announced that his administration will begin procedures to remove International Coalition forces from Iraq during a press conference on December 28, likely due to pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. These militias have used legal, military, and political pressure in recent weeks to expel US forces, as CTP-ISW previously assessed. This pressure, particularly the Iranian-backed attacks on US forces, creates an escalation cycle that triggers US self-defense strikes to protect US servicemembers. The Iranian-backed factions and militias then misrepresent these self-defense strikes as violations of Iraqi sovereignty, which generates domestic pressure on Sudani to remove US forces. This pressure appears to have succeeded at least partly in that Sudani repeated Iranian-backed militia talking points about the United States. Sudani said that that the self-defense strikes are violations of Iraqi sovereignty and were inconsistent with the advisory role of the International Coalition.[i] These claims ignore the fact that the US forces have a right to self-defense and that the Iranian use of client militias and proxies in Iraq to attack US forces in line with Tehran’s regional agenda is itself a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. US advisory forces are currently deployed in Iraq for counter-ISIS operations at the invitation of the Iraqi [ii]government. Sudani did not provide a timeline for removing International Coalition forces or describe the mechanism by which they would be removed.[iii]

An Iraqi decision to expel US forces will very likely create space for ISIS to rapidly resurge in Syria within 12 to 24 months and then threaten Iraq. The US military mission in these countries is to enable the enduring defeat of ISIS and through cooperation with local partners.[iv] The US support to its counter-ISIS partners in both Iraq and Syria is instrumental to successfully defeating ISIS.[v] US forces and infrastructure in Iraq provide the logistical support that enables the presence of US forces in Syria. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would necessitate a withdrawal from Syria, where ISIS is reconstituting itself in Syrian regime-held territory.[vi] CTP-ISW continues to assess that the United States and its partner in Syria have successfully contained but not defeated ISIS and that the US withdrawal from Syria will very likely cause a rapid resurgence in Syria within 12 to 24 months.[vii] A resurgent ISIS would then be able to threaten Iraq again. The Iraqi Security Forces still face significant deficiencies in logistics, intelligence, and fire support that inhibit their ability to defeat ISIS alone.[viii]

Hamas and its Palestinian allies are trying to shape peace negotiations in a way that is incompatible with the stated Israeli war aims. Hamas representatives met with other Palestinian factions in Beirut on December 27 to discuss the war and a possible ceasefire.[ix] The other factions included Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the leftist Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), and the PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC). These groups called collectively for establishing a national dialogue among all Palestinian factions, a unity government that includes all Palestinian factions, an end to the Israel-Hamas war, and free elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.[x] The groups also called for a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. The groups said that the October 7 attack was a “historic turning point” and reaffirmed the importance of the Palestinian issue.[xi] They blamed the Oslo Accords for the “decline” of the importance of the Palestinian cause in the Middle East.[xii] These principles articulated by the Palestinian factions conflict with Israeli war aims, which Israeli officials have said are to “destroy Hamas, demilitarize Gaza, and deradicalize Palestinian society.”[xiii] The participation of Hamas and other radical groups, such as PIJ, that seek the destruction of Israel in a future Gazan or Palestinian government is tantamount to an Israeli defeat in this war.

Hamas and its Palestinian allies are using multiple, overlapping negotiations with different external parties to embed themselves in a postwar “unity government” and thereby undermining Israel’s ability to accomplish its war aims. Hamas is engaging in at least four sets of separate negotiations to counter any Israeli and Western efforts to form a governing authority that excludes Hamas. The negotiations in which Hamas representatives are involved include one with Egypt regarding the war itself, a second with its wartime allies in the Palestinian Allied Factions, a third with former Fatah and Palestinian Authority (PA) officials, and a fourth with the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).[xiv] Hamas political leaders met with Fatah and PA officials, including a deputy to Mohammed Dahlan and a former PA foreign affairs minister, to discuss integrating Hamas into the PLO after the war.[xv] These negotiations will limit Israel’s ability to build a viable postwar governing authority in the form of a “reformed PA” by associating many of a reformed PA’s possible leaders with Hamas.[xvi]

Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is likely using Israeli hostages he holds as leverage to keep Hamas’ Gaza Strip leaders at the table during these negotiations—rather than delegating such negotiations exclusively to Hamas’ external leadership. CTP-ISW still assesses that Hamas writ large is also using the Israeli hostages as leverage to ensure its continued relevance in postwar negotiations.[xvii] Sinwar is opposed to negotiations with the PLO because these talks sideline Sinwar. Sinwar asked Hamas leaders outside the Gaza Strip to cease talks with the PLO and PA.[xviii] Sinwar’s refusal to release hostages is in part to use them as leverage to maintain his influence in the negotiations. Hamas has also repeatedly refused to release its hostages prior to a comprehensive ceasefire, including in the December 28 joint statement after the meeting in Beirut.[xix] Sinwar’s ability to agree to or refuse a hostage exchange allows him to maintain his influence within the movement writ large.

Iran Update, December 27, 2023

1. Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are driving an escalation cycle that combines military and political pressure to try to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. US, UN, Saudi, and Yemeni officials are negotiating an agreement to end the war in Yemen, which will not remove the threat the Houthis pose to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al Mandeb.
3. The IRGC spokesperson claimed that the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel was retaliation for the United States’ targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani. This was a failed effort to show unity across the Axis of Resistance and portray Iran as a leader.
4. The IDF officially began operations against Palestinian militias in Khuzaa south of Khan Younis on December 27.
5. Palestinian political factions, including Hamas and PIJ, affirmed their unity against Israel on December 27. They stressed the need for a reform of Palestinian governance after the end of the war but did not specify what reform would entail.
6. An Israel Army Radio correspondent reported on December 27 that the IDF intercepted an Iranian-made drone over the Mediterranean Sea that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched from Iraq.
7. Iran and Russia finalized an agreement to conduct trade using their national currencies rather than the US dollar.

Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are driving an escalation cycle that combines military and political pressure to try to expel US forces from Iraq. Iranian-backed militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba said on December 11 that expelling US forces requires political efforts from the government and military efforts from the militias.[i] Iranian-backed attacks against US forces combine both military and political effects to drive US forces from Iraq, which is a long-held objective for Iran and its proxies. Iranian-backed militias—not the United States—are driving the escalation in Iraq by conducting attacks that risk killing US military personnel to trigger US self-defense airstrikes against the militias.[ii] These Iranian-backed groups then frame these self-defense airstrikes as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty to argue that the Iraqi government should expel the United States from Iraq. The United States is in Iraq at the invitation of Iraq’s government to defeat ISIS, meaning that Iranian-backed attacks on an Iraqi partner are themselves a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.[iii]

The Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are using legal and political pressure to drive out US forces, as CTP-ISW has previously assessed.[iv] The militias’ military lines of effort create the conditions for Iranian-backed proxies to increase the legal and political pressure on Iraq’s parliament and prime minister. The Badr Organization-chaired Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee drafted a new resolution to expel US forces from Iraq in response to a US self-defense strike targeting Kataib Hezbollah in November, and multiple Iranian-backed politicians have called for the expulsion of US forces in the wake of the December 25 US airstrikes.[v] The November strike was in response to a KH ballistic missile attack targeting US forces in Iraq.[vi] Iranian-backed proxies called US forces a “threat” and demanded a timetable for a US withdrawal in separate statements after the December 25 US airstrikes.[vii] The US strikes were a response to an Iranian-backed attack that wounded two US service members and severely injured a third.[viii] The agreement that allows the US military presence in Iraq is an executive agreement, but a non-binding resolution will still impose political pressure on the prime minister to expel US forces.[ix] The prime minister could choose to expel US forces by introducing a timetable, such as the one former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki set in the 2000s.

US, UN, Saudi, and Yemeni officials are negotiating an agreement to end the war in Yemen, which will not remove the threat the Houthis pose to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al Mandeb.

US, UN, Saudi, and Yemeni officials told the Wall Street Journal that there is now an “informal three-year roadmap” to “end” the war in Yemen.[x] The negotiations did not include key Yemeni belligerents.[xi] A US official told the Journal that the United States is “separating” the Yemeni “peace” process and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. “Sources familiar with Saudi thinking” said that Riyadh urged Washington not to retaliate against the Houthis, however.[xii] Saudi Arabia seeks to prevent US strikes targeting the Houthis, believing that US strikes risk derailing the peace process.[xiii] Reaching an agreement would not change Riyadh’s calculus, as discouraging US efforts to deter Houthi terrorism and piracy in the Red Sea would prevent a breakdown in the agreement.[xiv]

The IRGC spokesperson claimed that the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel was retaliation for the United States’ targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani in a failed effort to show unity across the Axis of Resistance and portray Iran as a leader.[xv] IRGC Spokesperson Brigadier General Ramazan Sharif claimed that Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 civilians was in response to the United States’ targeted killing of RGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani.[xvi] Iran funded, supported, and provided the weapons and training used in the October 7 attacks, but was reportedly surprised by the scope and timing of the attacks.[xvii]

Hamas denied the Iranian claim, likely to present itself domestically and internationally as only the defender of Palestine and thereby obfuscate its role as the initiator of the current war and an extension of Iran’s regional project. Iran has provided weapons, materiel, training, and guidance to Hamas, and the group is a member of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance.[xviii] The group's leaders frequently meet with Iranian officials and coordinate their actions with Iran.[xix]

Hamas likely seeks to frame itself as the defender of Palestine in part to prevent blowback from its domestic audiences. Palestinians have borne the brunt of Hamas’ decision to launch its war against Israel with the October 7 terrorist attacks. Hamas’ popularity decreased in the Gaza Strip after the 2008 and 2014 Israeli ground operations.[xx] Recent polls show that support for Hamas remains high in Gaza, although anecdotal evidence suggests that some Gazans increasingly blame Hamas for starting the war and/or for failing to provide for and protect civilians having begun it.[xxi] Hamas officials found after Israeli operations in Gaza City in 2014 that the Gazan public "did not feel they were getting the benefits [from Hamas] for tolerating the bombing of Gaza by Israel,” for example.[xxii] Accepting Iran’s claim that Hamas attacked Israel to avenge the death of an Iranian general could alienate Gazans. Iran’s presentation of the October 7 attacks as an offensive action in response to the Soleimani strike also undermines the current Hamas narratives that it is acting defensively against Israeli "aggression” and on behalf of the Gazan people rather than solely on behalf of Iran.

Iran Update, December 26, 2023

1. Hamas and other Palestinian militias are exploiting the Israeli hostages they are holding to ensure that Hamas and its partners are involved in any negotiations about the future of the Gaza Strip. Hamas having a role in the future of the strip is incompatible with Israel’s stated war objectives of destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing “Palestinian society.”
2. Hamas fighters attacked Israeli forces conducting holding operations in Beit Hanoun. CTP-ISW assessed on December 20 that the IDF transitioned to a hold phase in Beit Hanoun.
3. Hamas and its militia allies continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Jabalia. The IDF reported that one of Hamas’ battalions used Indonesian Hospital in Jabalia as a headquarters.
4. The IDF continued clearing operations in Daraj wal Tuffah, Gaza City. Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Daraj wal Tuffah.
5. Palestinian militias continued to try to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Khan Younis. Palestinian militias used mortars, small arms fire, and anti-tank rockets to defend against the Israeli advances.
6. A Hamas security official shot and killed a fifteen-year-old Palestinian boy at an aid distribution site in Rafah, demonstrating the continued breakdown of governance and social order across the Gaza Strip.
7. Palestinian militias conducted at least two mortar attacks from the Gaza Strip targeting southern Israel on December 25 and five rocket attacks on December 26.
8. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters across the West Bank in nine locations on December 25 and in four locations on December 26.
9. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted from southern Lebanon into northern Israel 10 attacks on December 25 and nine attacks on December 26.
10. Israeli media reported that LH began withdrawing many of its forces, including Radwan special operations forces, from the Israel-Lebanon border.
11. The United States conducted airstrikes targeting three Kataib Hezbollah drone facilities in Hillah, Babil Province, Iraq, in response to a KH drone attack that wounded three US military personnel at Erbil International Airport earlier that day.
12. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria.
13. Iranian Supreme National Defense University President IRGC Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam discussed security and counterterrorism cooperation with Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh in Baghdad.
14. Israel was likely responsible for an airstrike on the IRGC military headquarters near Sayyidah Zainab, Syria, killing senior IRGC officer Brigadier General Razi Mousavi. The IRGC and senior Iranian officials vowed that Iran would retaliate against Israel for Mousavi’s death.
15. The Houthis attacked two vessels in the Red Sea as part of the ongoing anti-shipping attack campaign that they and Iran have conducted around the Bab al Mandeb in recent weeks. The IDF intercepted at least one Houthi drone targeting southern Israel.

Hamas and other Palestinian militias are exploiting the Israeli hostages they are holding to ensure that Hamas and its partners are involved in any negotiations about the future of the Gaza Strip. Beginning international negotiations on what the Gaza Strip will look like after the war with discussions on hostage releases has created the opportunity for Hamas and its allies to insert themselves into the discussion on the future of the strip. Hamas and its allies seek to use the hostages as leverage to get Israel to leave the Gaza Strip and end the war on terms favorable to Hamas. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad rejected an Egyptian three-phase peace proposal on December 25 that sought to create a long-term ceasefire likely because it did not guarantee an immediate Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.[i] The first phase of the agreement would have Hamas release 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for Israeli releasing 140 Palestinian prisoners.[ii] This phase also included the withdrawal of the IDF only from residential areas in the Gaza Strip.[iii] Releasing hostages prior to a complete Israeli withdrawal deprives Hamas and its allies of some of their negotiating leverage. The second and third phases of the agreement would have Hamas release female and then male soldiers held hostage in return for Israel releasing additional Palestinian prisoners.[iv] The third phase would include the formation of a transitional government in the Gaza Strip that would include “various Palestinian factions, including Hamas.”[v] Hamas officials have said repeatedly in recent days that they would refuse to release any hostages prior to a complete ceasefire that forces Israel to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, leaving Hamas in power.[vi] Hamas and its allies are thus exploiting the hostages to ensure it will remain in power after the end of Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip.

Hamas' effort to secure its role in the future of the Gaza Strip is incompatible with Israel’s stated war objectives of destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing “Palestinian society.”[vii] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated these aims in an op-ed on December 26.[viii] Any agreement that maintains Hamas’ military and political role in the Gaza Strip would be tantamount to Israel’s defeat in this war because it would preserve Hamas as a governing body and military force and provide Hamas safe haven to reconstitute itself and threaten Israel again in the future. Hamas remains resilient and able to reconstitute its military capabilities, despite its military losses in the war thus far.[ix] Israel’s stated war goals are meant to prevent Hamas’ reconstitution by destroying Hamas as a governing body and military force. Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have highlighted that Israel will need to fight a "prolonged” war to achieve these objectives.[x]

Iran Update, December 24, 2023

1. The Houthi movement likely conducted four attacks targeting civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea. Iran and the Houthis are functioning as a coalition to conduct combined military operations targeting international shipping in the Red Sea.
2. Multiple Israeli sources told Israeli media that Egypt presented a three-stage ceasefire and hostage-for-prisoner exchange deal to Israel and Hamas. Informed sources told Saudi Arabia-based al Sharq that Hamas “expressed agreement” with a separate Egyptian initiative that seeks to form a “technocratic” Palestinian government after the war.
3. Israel announced that 15 of its soldiers were killed by enemy action across the Gaza Strip in several engagements.
4. The Israeli Army Radio’s military correspondent reported that Hamas is implementing lessons learned in the fight against the IDF to improve its ability to defend against IDF operations.
5. Palestinian militias continued trying to defend against IDF clearing operations in Jabalia. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis.
6. Palestinian militias conducted at least one rocket attack from the Gaza Strip targeting southern Israel.
7. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters four times across the West Bank.
8. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
9. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Senior Advisor Ali Asghar Khaji discussed the Israel-Hamas war in a meeting with Russian Foreign Ministry Special Representative for the Middle East Peace Process Vladimir Safronkov in Tehran.

The Houthi movement likely conducted four attacks targeting civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea on December 23.

• US CENTCOM reported that unidentified fighters fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles from Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory into international shipping lanes in the southern Red Sea.[i] A Yemeni journalist reported that Houthis launched both missiles from Huban, Taiz governorate.[ii] CENTCOM said that no ships reported that they were hit by the missiles.[iii]
• US CENTCOM reported that unidentified fighters targeted the USS Laboon in the southern Red Sea with four drones.[iv] CENTCOM reported that the drones originated from Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory. The USS Laboon intercepted all four drones and reported no injuries or damage from the attack.
• Houthi fighters conducted two attacks targeting the Norwegian-flagged Blaamanen and Indian-flagged Saibaba with one-way attack drones in the southern Red Sea.[v] The Blaamanen reported that the Houthi drone missed the ship. The Saibaban reported that one attack drone hit the ship but did not cause in casualties among the crew. CENTCOM reported that the USS Laboon responded to distress signals from both vessels at approximately 2000 local time.[vi]

Iran and the Houthis are functioning as a coalition to conduct combined military operations targeting international shipping in the Red Sea. Iran considers the Axis of Resistance as its unconventional alliance of state, semi-state, and non-state actors.[vii] Their anti-US and anti-Israeli ideology unites the Axis of Resistance, creating strategic alignment across its members. Multiple US officials have highlighted the role Iran plays in the targeting and execution of Houthi attacks against international shipping.[viii] Iran provides the weapons and uses advisers on the ground in Yemen and at least one spy ship anchored in the Red Sea to support its Houthi partners, who execute the attacks based on Iranian advice and intelligence.[ix]

Iranian state media claimed that the US-led Red Sea security coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian, is collapsing.[x] An Iranian state Arabic-language media outlet claimed that France, Spain, and Italy’s decision to operate outside of Operation Prosperity Guardian was evidence that they and other countries in the coalition are unwilling to be the "aggressor” in the Red Sea to protect Israeli economic interests.[xi] The outlet reiterated the Houthi’s false claim that its fighters only target ships en route to Israel. Recent Houthi attacks have targeted many commercial ships not traveling to Israel. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18 as a multinational security force to address security challenges in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden following Houthi attacks threatening freedom of navigation.[xii] Austin reported that the coalition is composed of the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain.[xiii] Italy and France released separate statements announcing that their forces would operate independently in the Red Sea to secure freedom of navigation and would not operate under Operation Prosperity Guardian.[xiv] Spanish officials said separately that their forces would only operate under a NATO- or EU-led operations.[xv]

Iran Update, December 23, 2023

1. Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are signaling their capability and willingness to attack maritime targets beyond just the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Iran has invested in building “drone carriers” to add to its naval forces in recent years, which will amplify the threat that the Axis of Resistance poses to international shipping and other maritime targets.
2. Palestinian militias continued trying to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Jabalia and Sheikh Radwan in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces continued executing tasks consistent with holding operations in some areas of Gaza City.
3. The al Qassem Brigades conducted several complex attacks on Israeli forces conducting clearing operations in Juhor ad Dik.
4. The IDF spokesperson said that the IDF is in “operational control” of most of the northern Gaza Strip.
5. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis for the third week as Palestinian militia fighters attempted to defend against Israeli advances.
6. Israel’s public broadcaster said that the IDF will transition to the third phase of its ground operation in the Gaza Strip in the “coming weeks” and outlined five aspects of the third phase.
7. Palestinian militias conducted four indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
8. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters eight times across the West Bank.
9. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
10. The Shia Coordination Framework—a loose coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia parties—established a special committee to appoint provincial councils and governors.
11. The Iranian regime is continuing its diplomatic and informational campaign trying to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to isolate Israel in the international community.

Iran Update, December 22, 2023

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces are executing tasks consistent with holding operations in Beit Hanoun and al Shati Camp in the northern Gaza Strip.
2. Palestinian militia fighters are attempting to defend against Israeli advances in dense, urban terrain in the northwestern Gaza Strip.
3. The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution to boost humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip, but the resolution did not call for a ceasefire.
4. Israeli forces located long-range rocket launchers which the al Qassem Brigades likely used to launch a large salvo of rockets at Tel Aviv.
5. The New York Times reported that the Biden administration is holding talks with Israel, Lebanon, and intermediaries for Lebanese Hezbollah to “reduce tensions” on the Israel-Lebanon border.
6. Spokesperson for Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Ashab al Kahf Abu Murtaja al Husseini said that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq will reject any discussion on stopping attacks targeting US positions in Iraq.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting Eilat, Israel on December 21 in retaliation for civilian deaths in the Gaza Strip.
8. The Wall Street Journal reported that an Iranian spy ship is directing Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Iran Update, December 21, 2023

1. Israeli forces have expanded clearing operations to target Hamas’ Central Gaza Strip Brigade, as Israeli forces transition into holding operations in parts of the northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias tried to defend against Israeli advances toward the central Gaza Strip.
2. The IDF stated that it established “operational control” of Shujaiya after dismantling Hamas' battalion there. Palestinian militias other than Hamas continue to attack Israeli forces around Shujaiya and the surrounding neighborhoods.
3. Israeli forces continued engaging Palestinian fighters in the northern Gaza Strip, which is consistent with the nature of holding operations. The IDF announced that it plans to target the three seniormost commanders remaining in Hamas’ Northern Gaza Strip Brigade.
4. Palestinian militia fighters continued conducting a deliberate defense against Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis.
5. Hamas claimed that all Palestinian groups agree that they will not accept a hostage exchange with Israel until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
6. Palestinian militias conducted six indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The al Qassem Brigades fired a large salvo of rockets at Tel Aviv.
7. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in seven locations across the West Bank. Hamas called for Palestinians to demonstrate across the West Bank on December 22 in support of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and for Palestinian militias’ victory against Israel.
8. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 15 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
9. Iraqi state media, citing the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission, released preliminary results for the provincial council elections. The We Build Coalition, led by Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri, has won 43 seats.

Iran Update, December 20, 2023

1. Israeli forces are transitioning from clearing operations to holding operations in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip.
2. Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi threatened to target US warships in the Red Sea.
3. Israel and Hamas continued negotiations for a new humanitarian pause in fighting in exchange for Israeli hostages being held in the Gaza Strip.
4. PIJ Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah and a PIJ delegation will travel to Cairo in the coming days to discuss ceasefire negotiations with Egyptian officials.
5. Iranian military leaders view current Hamas operations in the Gaza Strip as the prelude to a long-term war to destroy Israel.
6. Iraqi political parties and coalitions aligned with the Shia Coordination Framework—a loosely aligned coalition of pro-Iranian political parties—have won the most seats in the provincial council elections.
7. Iraqi media claimed on December 20 that unspecified militants attacked US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq

Iran Update, December 19, 2023

1. Israel has degraded Hamas’ North Gaza Brigade, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias continued attacks targeting Israeli forces east of Jabalia.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza City.
3. Palestinian militias are continuing to use the relative safe haven of the Gaza Strip’s Central Governorate to attack Israeli forces south of Gaza City.
4. Palestinian fighters continued to conduct a deliberate defense against Israeli advances in Khan Younis. The IDF deployed an additional brigade to Khan Younis
5. Palestinian militias mortared Israeli forces in the central and southern Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades conducted at least two indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters seven times across the West Bank. Hamas continues to demonstrate solidarity with Palestinian militias in the West Bank.
7. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
8. Israel seeks a deal to push Lebanese Hezbollah forces “roughly six miles” from the Israel-Lebanon border to prevent possible LH cross border attacks, according to US and Israeli officials.
9. The Iraqi High Electoral Commission released preliminary results for the Iraqi provincial council elections. Shia parties, including those affiliated with Iran, won the largest count of votes in Baghdad and most of Iraq’s southern provinces.
10. The Jordanian Air Force conducted airstrikes on Iran-linked drug smuggling targets in Salkhad, Suwayda Province, Syria.
11. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced Operation Prosperity Guardian in response to Houthi attacks on international shipping around the Red Sea. The Houthi attack campaign targeting commercial shipping continues to achieve one of its desired effects of disrupting Red Sea maritime traffic headed to Israel.
12. Fighters from the Balochi Salafi-jihadi group Jaish al Adl were likely responsible for an improvised explosive device attack targeting an IRGC Special Forces Brigade near Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.

Iran Update, December 18, 2023

1. Israeli appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip.
2. The IDF reported on December 18 that Israeli forces destroyed Hamas’ Beit Hanoun Battalion.
3. The al Qassem Brigades still has two units that are not committed to combat in the Rafah and the Central governorates that it could draw on to defend Khan Younis.
4. Palestinian militias conducted three indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
5. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times across the West Bank.
6. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
7. The Houthis claimed to have conducted two drone attacks targeting the Norwegian-owned, Cayman Islands-flagged Swan Atlantic tanker and Swiss-owned, Panama-flagged MSC Clara container ship in the Red Sea.
8. Israel conducted airstrikes targeting the IRGC headquarters at Sayyida Zainab, Damascus.

Iran Update, December 17, 2023

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces uncovered an advanced and extensive Hamas tunnel system in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli officials reported that Mohammad Sinwar—the brother of Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar—headed the tunnel building project.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya and Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades have not claimed an attack on Israeli forces in Shujaiya since December 14.
3. Palestinian militias continued attacking Israeli forces near Juhor ad Dik. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Palestinian militias may be using relative safe haven in the central Gaza Strip to enable attacks on Israeli forces around Juhor ad Dik.
4. The IDF reported that it raided the outpost of Hamas’ Deir al Balah Battalion.
5. An Israeli defense correspondent reported that Hamas is transferring forces from the rest of the Gaza Strip to support its Khan Younis Brigade.
6. Israeli forces advanced to the central square in Bani Suheila as Palestinian militias attempted to resist Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis.
7. Telecommunications services are returning to parts of the Gaza Strip after a multi-day communications blackout.
8. Palestinian militias conducted six indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters for several hours in Tulkarm area. Palestinian fighters separately clashed with Israeli forces around Hebron.
10. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 11 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
11. The Houthi anti-shipping attack campaign continues to achieve one of its desired effects of disrupting maritime traffic headed to Israel.

Iran Update, December 16, 2023

Key Takeaways:

1. The Israel Defense Forces concluded its probe into the accidental killing of three hostages by an IDF unit in Shujaiya.
2. Mossad Direct David Barnea met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al Thani to begin negotiations to free additional hostages.
3. Hamas fighters are attacking IDF units near Juhor ad Dik likely from Hamas’ relative safe haven in the Gaza Strip’s Central Governorate.
4. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya, Jabalia, and Sheikh Radwan.
5. Palestinian fighters continued their attempts to resist Israeli forces as the IDF continued its advance in Khan Younis.
6. The al Quds Brigades conducted two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip targeting Sufa, southern Israel.
7. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters around Nablus. The al Qassem Brigades reiterated calls for militia attacks on Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank.
8. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted six cross-border attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
9. An Iraq-focused journalist said that Iraqi Security Forces arrested Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba fighters in connection to the December 8 rocket attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad.
10. The Houthis refocused their attack campaign to target Israel directly rather than international shipping and may have concluded that they achieved their objective of halting shipping through the Red Sea.
11. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks against US forces in Syria.

Iran Update, December 15, 2023

1. Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to demonstrate their capability to control a key maritime route and chokepoint in the Middle East.
2. The Houthis have conducted almost daily drone and missile attacks against commercial vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb since December 9.
3. The Houthi attack campaign signals to the international community that the Axis of Resistance can imperil ships around the Bab al Mandeb in addition to the Strait of Hormuz.
4. Israeli forces destroyed the headquarters of Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion in the northern Gaza Strip.
5. Israeli clearing operations may be disrupting Palestinian militia fighters’ ability to frequently communicate with each other.
6. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 11 cross-border attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
7. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in Tel Aviv that Israel will transition to the next phase of the war, which will focus on targeting leadership and intelligence operations rather than high-intensity clearance operations.
8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Iraq.
9. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba Secretary General Akram al Kaabi released a statement justifying resistance against the United States in Iraq.

Iran Update, December 14, 2023

1. Israeli forces are engaged in intense fighting around Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods of Gaza city. Hamas is trying to defend against an Israeli advance toward Shujaiya from southern Gaza city.
2. Palestinian fighters continued to resist Israeli forces’ northeastward advance in Khan Younis.
3. Palestinian militias conducted two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel.
4. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times in the West Bank. Israeli forces concluded an over two-day-long operation in Jenin.
5. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Syria.
7. Iraqi military spokesperson Major General Yahya Rasoul claimed that Iraqi security services arrested “a number of perpetrators” responsible for the December 8 attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad.
8. The Houthis conducted a missile attack targeting the Danish-owned, Hong Kong-flagged Maersk Gibraltar container ship near the Bab al Mandeb.
9. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian continued his meetings with his foreign counterparts in Geneva.
10. European authorities arrested seven individuals linked to Hamas in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands for allegedly planning terror attacks targeting Israeli and Jewish civilians in Europe.

Iran Update, December 13, 2023

1. Hamas conducted a complex, multi-part ambush targeting an Israeli patrol and quick reaction force in Shujaiya’s kasbah on December 12.
2. Israeli forces are continuing to degrade Hamas forces by targeting military infrastructure and weapons caches throughout the Gaza Strip.
3. Hamas published a video of its fighters engaging Israeli forces from a school in Khan Younis. The video is notable as Hamas claims that its military forces do not use civilian infrastructure for military operations.
4. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 19 times in the West Bank.
5. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted ten attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
6. The Israeli Air Force conducted an airstrike targeting Syrian Arab Army military infrastructure and positions within Syrian territory on December 12 according to a post from the IDF.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two one-way drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria.
8. The Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel after Houthi fighters failed to hijack the ship.

Iran Update, December 12, 2023

1. Palestinian militias are attempting to resist Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis. The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson reiterated orders to residents in Khan Younis and the northern Gaza Strip to evacuate using the Salah al Din Road to Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces are likely degrading Hamas’ capacity to conduct indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The number of indirect fire attacks conducted daily by Hamas has decreased significantly since October, which is consistent with the assessed degradation of Hamas’ indirect fire capacity.
3. The IDF reported that Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya, Zaytoun, and Jabalia over the past week. Palestinian militias continued attacks on Israeli forces advancing in Shujaiya neighborhood.
4. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 17 times in the West Bank.
5. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 11 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
6. The Houthis conducted an anti-ship cruise missile attack on the Norwegian tanker STRINDA around the Bab al Mandeb.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two attacks targeting US positions in eastern Syria.
8. Iranian and Iraqi judicial officials discussed prosecuting the “perpetrators” of the January 2020 US airstrike that killed then-IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani as part of the broader Iranian effort to undermine anti-Iran elements of the Iraqi Security Forces.
9. The secretary general of the Iranian-backed Iraqi Badr Organization, Hadi al Ameri, called on the Iraqi central government to expel the US-led international coalition from Iraq.
10. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in separate phone calls with his Russian and Chinese counterparts.

Iran Update, December 11, 2023

1. Israeli forces are degrading Hamas’ battalions in Shujaiya and Jabalia.
2. Palestinian militias continued to resist Israeli advances in Khan Younis. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted seven indirect fire attacks into Israel.
3. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times in the West Bank.
4. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias attacked nine Israeli towns and military positions.
5. Top Israeli security and military officials discussed how to deal with the threats on Israel’s northern border.
6. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba Political Council called for simultaneous political and military actions to expel the United States from Iraq.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria.
8. US officials are continuing to pressure the Iraqi central government to protect US personnel in Iraq.

Iran Update, December 10, 2023

1. Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli forces on the Israeli forward line of advance in Khan Younis.
2. Palestinian militias attacked Israeli military vehicles in Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced east of the city.
3. Israeli forces killed the Hamas Shujaiya Battalion commander during clearing operations in the neighborhood.
4. Israel moved elements of its Artillery Corps into the Gaza Strip for the first time since the war began.
5. The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began.
6. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine called for greater coordination among Palestinian militias against Israel.
7. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted two indirect fire attacks into Israel.
8. Al Qassem Brigades spokesperson Abu Obeida threatened that Hamas would conduct additional terror attacks against Israeli civilians.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in five towns across West Bank.
10. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a one-way drone attack that injured Israeli soldiers in northern Israel. LH claimed seven other attacks on Israeli military positions in northern Israel.
11. Asaib Ahl al Haq Secretary General Qais al Khazali reiterated his commitment to expelling US forces from Iraq in a social media statement.
12. Unspecified militants conducted two one-way drone attacks on US forces in eastern Syria, according to a US journalist.
13. The French FREMM Multi-Mission Frigate Languedoc intercepted two incoming Houthi drones off the Yemeni coast while patrolling the Red Sea.
14. Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran.

Iran Update, December 9, 2023

1. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced in the northern Gaza Strip. Israel reported that Hamas is stealing supplies from civilians in Shujaiya neighborhood.
3. Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
4. The IDF spokesperson for Arab media posted specific evacuation orders covering areas of Khan Younis on X (Twitter).
5. Palestinian militias conducted at least five indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least seven times in the West Bank.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias conducted 16 attacks into northern Israel from Lebanon.
8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted 11 “operations” against US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 8. Kataib Hezbollah later stated it plans to increase the scope of its attacks on US targets in Iraq.
9. Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea announced that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel, regardless of their national affiliation.
10. Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran.

Iran Update, December 8, 2023

1. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted an indirect fire attack targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 for the first time since 2021, marking a notable escalation in Iranian efforts to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors' current campaign to remove US forces draws remarkable similarities to the 2021 campaign to force a US troop withdrawal from Iraq.
3. Israeli forces are destroying Hamas infrastructure in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist their advances.
4. Israeli forces are operating to dismantle Hamas in Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip. Israeli forces also clashed with Palestinian fighters eight times across the West Bank.
5. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 10 indirect fire attacks into Israel.
6. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias claimed 13 attacks into northern Israel.
7. The IDF conducted multiple strikes on unspecified Iranian-backed targets in southern Syria on December 8 in retaliation for rocket strikes into the Golan Heights the day prior.
8. Unspecified militants conducted 9 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, according to a US journalist.

Iran Update, December 7, 2023

1. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to try to expel US forces from Iraq. They are using military, legal, and political pressure to drive out the United States.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing and targeting operations in Khan Younis. Palestinian militias claimed at least 18 attacks along the northern and eastern lines of Israeli advance in Khan Younis.
3. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Jabalia. The IDF advanced further into the Shujaiya and Tuffah neighborhoods of eastern Gaza city.
4. Palestinian militias conducted one indirect fire attack into southern Israel.
5. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 15 times across the West Bank.
6. Top Israeli officials are outlining Israel’s post-October 7 policy toward Lebanon and attempting to deter further Lebanese Hezbollah military escalation against Israel.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias conducted thirteen attacks targeting northern Israel, including one attack that killed an Israeli civilian.
8. Unspecified Iranian-backed militias fired two rockets from Syria towards Buqata, Israel, in the Golan Heights.
9. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba political chief Sheikh Ali al Asadi warned the United States to withdraw its forces from the Middle East during an interview with Newsweek.
10. Senior Iranian officials met with the International Liaison Department head of the Chinese Communist Party, Liu Jianchao, in Tehran.
11. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke on the phone with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammad al Thani.
12. Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed developing Russian-Iranian economic relations with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow.

Iran Update, December 6, 2023

1. Israeli forces are operating in Khan Younis as part of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s effort to target senior Hamas commanders. Palestinian militias claimed several attacks along Israeli lines of advance in Khan Younis.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Jabalia and the Shujaiya neighborhood of eastern Gaza City.
3. Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters engaged in 15 clashes across the West Bank.
4. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel is pursuing diplomacy to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which bans Lebanese Hezbollah from positioning military forces south of the Litani River.
5. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 10 attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq on December 5 and 6.
7. The Houthi movement said that it launched several ballistic missiles targeting Eilat in southern Israel on December 6.

Iran Update, December 5, 2023

1. Palestinian militia fighters continued to use more sophisticated tactics to target Israeli forces throughout the Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces moved eastward and secured the Salah al Din Road south of Deir al Balah on or before December 3.
3. Israeli forces entered urban areas in Khan Younis and Bani Suheila. Palestinian militia forces, including the al Qassem Brigades and the al Quds Brigades, are attempting to resist the Israeli advance into Khan Younis governorate.
4. Israeli forces continued their advance into Jabalia and Shujaiya.
5. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted nine indirect fire attacks into Israel.
6. Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters clashed in nine towns across the West Bank.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 15 attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon.
8. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps held a funeral ceremony in Tehran for two IRGC Quds Force general officers killed in Syria.
9. US CENTCOM reported that unspecified actors launched 15 122mm rockets from Iraq at the US forces at the Rumalyn Landing Zone in Syria on December 3.
10. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed to cooperate toward undermining international sanctions.

Iran Update, December 4, 2023

1. Israel continued conducting clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip to encircle Hamas in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city.
2. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias in the central and southern Gaza Strip along the Salah al Din Road.
3. Israel continued clearing operations in Beit Hanoun to destroy Palestinian militia infrastructure.
4. Palestinian fighters conducted ten attacks targeting Israeli forces across the West Bank. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 11 attacks into northern Israel targeting Israeli forces and civilians.
5. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 3.
6. US Central Command confirmed that the US military conducted a self-defense strike against five Iraqi militants planning a one-way drone attack on US forces near Kirkuk, Iraq, on December 3.
7. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed expanding intelligence cooperation with the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) during a meeting with PMF Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh in Baghdad on December 4. 

Iran Update, December 3, 2023

1. Hamas has used increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip since the humanitarian pause ended on December 1.
2. Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to support their objective of expelling US forces from the Middle East.
3. The Houthi movement likely attacked three commercial vessels and possibly a US Navy vessel around the Bab al Mandeb.
4. Israeli forces began ground operations into the southern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces along Israeli lines of advance in the southern Gaza Strip using direct and indirect fire.
5. The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson posted specific evacuation orders covering areas of Khan Younis.
6. Israel recalled its negotiators from Qatar after reaching a “dead end” in ceasefire talks.
7. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 21 rocket attacks into Israel.
8. Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in seven towns across the West Bank.
9. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed seven attacks into northern Israel, targeting Israeli forces, including one attack that wounded 11 Israeli soldiers and civilians.
10. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq resumed its attacks on US forces after the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip ended on December 1. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq said that five of its fighters died in battle.
11. The two IRGC general officers killed in Israeli airstrikes in Syria on December 2 were members of the IRGC Quds Force Unit 340, according to Israeli media.

Iran Update, December 2, 2023

1. The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson released on X (Twitter) specific evacuation orders covering Jabalia, Gaza city, and eastern Rafah and Khan Younis governorates.
2. Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Saleh al Arouri said that Hamas would not agree to further hostage-for-prisoner exchanges until the end of Israel’s ground operation and a “comprehensive ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip.
3. Palestinian fighters continued to resist Israeli forces’ eastward advance toward Jabalia. Hamas fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator targeting an Israeli vehicle for the second consecutive day.
4. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 25 rocket and mortar attacks into Israel.
5. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in five towns across the West Bank. This count is half the weekly average.
6. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 12 attacks into northern Israel, primarily on Israeli military targets.
7. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps announced that Israel killed two of its general officers in Syria.
8. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri traveled to Baghdad.

Iran Update, December 1, 2023

1. Fighting resumed in the Gaza Strip after negotiations between Israel and Hamas broke down. Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces along Israeli lines of advance north and south of Gaza city. Palestinian militias resumed indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel after the truce ended.
2. The IDF published a map dividing the entire Gaza Strip into blocks to facilitate civilian evacuations.
3. The Israel government reportedly informed Arab states that it wants to establish a buffer zone in a post-war Gaza Strip.
4. Palestinian fighters conducted seven attacks targeting Israeli forces in the West Bank. Hamas called for anti-Israel demonstrations across the West Bank.
5. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted five attacks into northern Israel.
6. An Iraqi social media account reported that the 30^th Brigade of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces blocked a convoy of Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service and US forces in Iraq.