Iran Updates January 2024

Iran Update, January 31, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in western and southwestern Gaza City. Palestinian fighters likely infiltrated these areas during January.
• Political Negotiations: An unspecified senior Hamas official told Reuters on January 30 that mediators provided a ceasefire proposal of unspecified length to Hamas.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias six times in the West Bank on January 31.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that northern Israel may lose power in the event of a wider war with Lebanon during a meeting with the heads of local municipalities in northern Israel.
• Iraq and Syria: An “informed source” told Iraqi media that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Baghdad on January 29 to “stop [the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias'] military escalation” against US forces.
• Iran: Iranian officials are attempting to deter a US response to the January 28 attack that killed three US servicemembers in northeastern Jordan. Iranian officials warned on January 30 and 31 that Iran will respond “decisively” to any US retaliation targeting Iran.

Iran Update, January 30, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters clashed in western Gaza City where Palestinian militias have likely infiltrated. The Guardian reported that Hamas is returning to the northern Gaza Strip and rebuilding a system of governance there.
• Central Gaza Strip: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters, including conducting an airstrike on Palestinian fighters armed with rocket-propelled grenades. Palestinian fighters separately mortared Israeli forces.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued conducting clearing operations around Khan Younis. Palestinian fighters continued conducting a deliberate defense against Israeli forces in western Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: Hamas is considering a new hostage-for-prisoner proposal. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh will soon travel to Cairo to discuss the proposal.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias 10 times. Israeli forces killed three Palestinian fighters affiliated with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a hospital in Jenin.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Unidentified militants launched rockets from Syria into the Golan Heights.
• Iraq and Syria: Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah are conducting an information operation to distance Iran from the January 28 one-way drone attack that killed three US service members in northeastern Jordan.
• Yemen: Houthi Defense Minister Mohammad Nasser al Atifi said that the Houthis are prepared for a long-term confrontation with US and UK forces in the Red Sea.
• Iran: The Iranian Law Enforcement Command Border Guards commander announced that it killed a member of the Baloch militant group, Ansar al Furqan, in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.

Iran Update, January 29, 2024

• Jordan: Iran and its proxies are advancing an information operation to obfuscate the origin of the January 28 attack that killed three US service members in Jordan. Statements from Kataib Hezbollah before the attack and Iraqi militia actions afterward suggest that the attack came from Iraq.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias are continuing to conduct attacks against Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip as they infiltrate previously cleared areas.
• Central Gaza Strip: The IDF reported that the Nahal Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) raided a building and seized a weapons cache in an unspecified area of the central Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: The 89th Commando Brigade (assigned to the IDF 98th Division) captured Palestinian militia weapons caches and killed five Palestinian fighters in western Khan Younis.
• West Bank: Israeli forces conducted raids, detained ”wanted individuals,” and captured weapons during operations in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: LH claimed 13 attacks targeting Israeli forces and border outposts. LH has claimed on average six attacks per day in January 2024.
• Syria: Unspecified militants conducted an attack targeting US forces at al Shaddadi, Hasakah Province, Syria.

Iran Update, January 28, 2024

1. Jordan: An Iranian-backed militia conducted a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in northeastern Jordan, killing three American service members and wounding another 25. This attack is part of the ongoing Iranian-led campaign to expel US forces from the Middle East. The Iranian-backed attack highlights the growing prominence of Jordan in Iranian regional strategy.
2. Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces 5th Brigade (assigned to the 143rd Division) located and destroyed a tunnel route.
3. Central Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces Nahal Brigade (assigned to the 143rd Division) clashed with Palestinian fighters.
4. Southern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces withdrew the 4th (Kiryati) Brigade and 55th Paratrooper Brigade from Khan Younis.
5. West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in seven locations, primarily around Jenin.
6. Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
7. Iraq and Syria: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for five attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria.

An Iranian-backed militia conducted a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in northeastern Jordan on January 28, killing three American service members and wounding another 25.[i] This attack is part of the ongoing Iranian-led campaign to expel US forces from the Middle East. CTP-ISW has reported extensively in recent months on how Iranian-backed militias have used military and political pressure to catalyze a US withdrawal from Iraq and Syria.[ii] These militias have conducted over 170 attacks targeting US positions as part of this effort since October 2023.[iii] The militias have framed their attacks as responses to the Israel-Hamas war, when the attacks are in actuality part of the larger Iranian project in the Middle East. Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” view the Israel-Hamas war as an opportunity to accelerate their campaign to expel US forces, as they have used the war to narratively justify their attacks.

Iran Update, January 27, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters claimed clashes with Israeli forces. Hamas and other Palestinian fighters have contested Israeli raids in certain areas of the northern Gaza Strip throughout January 2024.
• Central Gaza Strip: Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s militant wing targeted an Israeli supply line with mortars and rockets.
• Southern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces 98th Division destroyed weapons warehouses and clashed with Palestinian fighters in western Khan Younis. Several Palestinian militias, including Hamas, continued to execute a deliberate defense against the Israeli ground operations in Khan Younis, particularly west and south of the city.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in three locations.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 14 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Iraq and Syria: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for four attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria.
• Yemen: US Central Command announced that the United States struck a Houthi anti-ship missile that was prepared to launch and presented an imminent threat to commercial vessels and US Navy ships in the Red Sea.

Iran Update, January 26, 2024

• Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq released a statement rejecting the US and Iraqi decision to begin negotiations over the status of US-led coalition forces in Iraq and vowed to continue attacking US forces. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq will likely continue to attack US forces in Iraq and Syria to pressure the Mohammad Shia al Sudani administration to order the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.
• Yemen: The Houthis conducted multiple attacks on a US Navy warship and two commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden. CENTCOM reported that the Houthis fired one anti-ship ballistic missile targeting the USS Carney. two missiles exploded within a few hundred meters of the Panama-flagged commercial tanker Achilles around the same time as the attack on the USS Carney.
• Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) destroyed military infrastructure and clashed with Palestinian fighters in the northern Gaza Strip. Hamas and other Palestinian fighters have contested Israeli raids in certain areas of the northern Gaza Strip throughout January 2024.
• Central Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias conducted multiple attacks on Israeli forces in the central Gaza Strip. Hamas’ military wing detonated explosives in a tunnel entrance targeting Israeli infantrymen near the Maghazi refugee camp.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias conducted seven indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in three locations across the West Bank. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah, and the Tubas Battalion of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad military wing claimed that they targeted Israeli forces with explosives and small arms fire in Tubas.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 26.  Hezbollah conducted three attacks targeting Israeli forces using rockets and other unspecified munitions.
• Iran: The Iranian regime denied a recent Wall Street Journal report that the United States secretly warned Iran that the Islamic State was preparing to conduct the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman.

Iran Update, January 25, 2024

• Iraq: The United States and the Iraqi federal government will soon begin negotiations on Iraq's current security arrangement with US-led coalition forces, which could involve US forces withdrawing from Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors praised the US and Iraqi decision to begin negotiations about the status of US-led coalition forces in Iraq.
• Yemen: Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi falsely claimed that Houthi attacks on maritime traffic in the Red Sea have not significantly impacted maritime trade. Abdulmalik separately reiterated the false Houthi narrative that the anti-shipping attacks have only targeted Israel-linked vessels and further claimed that the Houthis have allowed almost 5,000 non-Israel-linked vessels to freely operate in the Red Sea.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to engage Palestinian fighters throughout the northern part of the strip. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Hamas and other Palestinian militias are reinfiltrating areas that Israeli forces previously cleared.
• Central Gaza Strip: Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine conducted a combined attack targeting an Israeli supply line. The operation marks the third claimed indirect fire attack targeting Israeli supply lines in recent days.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued conducting clearing operations in Khan Younis. Palestinian fighters continued conducting a deliberate defense against Israeli clearing operations in western and southern Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: US Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns will meet with the Qatari prime minister and the Egyptian and Israeli intelligence chiefs in the coming days to broker a deal for the release of hostages and a pause in fighting in the Gaza Strip.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighter four times in the northern West Bank, primarily around Jenin and Tubas.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Iran: The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States secretly warned Iran that the Islamic State was preparing to conduct the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman.

Iran Update, January 24, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 215th Artillery Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) directed airstrikes to kill many Palestinian fighters in the northern Gaza Strip in the past 24 hours.
• Central Gaza Strip: Israeli forces destroyed an underground tunnel route 1.5 kilometers from the Israeli border that connects the northern and southern Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters defended against Israeli clearing operations in western, southern, and eastern Khan Younis on January 24.
• Political Negotiations: Israel and Hamas continued indirect talks regarding a ceasefire on January 24. Hamas demanded a total Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
• West Bank: CTP-ISW did not record any clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militias in the West Bank on January 24.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 24.
• Iraq: The United States conducted airstrikes targeting three Kataib Hezbollah facilities in Iraq in al Qaim, Anbar Province, and Jurf al Sakhr, Babil Province, on January 23.
• Yemen: Houthi fighters fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting two US-flagged ships transporting US military supplies through the Gulf of Aden on January 24
• Iran: Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with senior Russian officials on January 24.

Iran Update, January 23, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias claimed attacks in areas of the northern Gaza Strip where Israeli forces previously conducted clearing operations. The claimed attacks are consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Hamas and other Palestinian militias are likely in the early stages of reconstituting their governance and military capabilities in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Central Gaza Strip: Hamas’ military wing conducted a complex attack that killed 21 Israeli soldiers in the deadliest single attack since Israeli ground operations began. The IDF Chief of Staff said that the fallen soldiers were conducting a defensive activity that will allow Israeli residents to return to their homes surrounding the Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces located an underground weapons production facility that the IDF said is the largest it has found to date. Palestinian militias are continuing to execute a deliberate defense against Israeli operations in western Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: Israel proposed a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for Hamas releasing over several phases the remaining hostages held in the Gaza Strip. An anonymous Egyptian official told the Associated Press that Hamas rejected the proposal.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters twice in the West Bank. The IDF detained eight wanted individuals and confiscated weapons.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah claimed three attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Israeli media reported that the IDF Air Force destroyed an unspecified military asset used by Hezbollah but operated by Iran.
• Iraq: The Shia Coordination Framework—a loose coalition of Iranian-backed Shia political factions—discussed Iranian-backed militia efforts to “provoke” US self-defense strikes in a meeting.
• Syria: Israel likely conducted two airstrikes targeting an IRGC weapons storage facility and an Iranian-backed militia truck transporting weapons around Albu Kamal, Syria.
• Yemen: US and UK forces conducted combined strikes on eight Houthi military targets in Yemen. The Houthis are harassing UN operations and personnel in Yemen.
• Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized Islamic countries for not demanding a ceasefire for the Israel-Hamas war during a meeting with the Tehran branch of the Martyrs’ Commemoration National Congress.

Iran Update, January 22, 2024

• The Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces “expanded” ground operations in Khan Younis to “dismantle” Hamas’ military forces in Khan Younis.
• The Northern Gaza Strip: Hamas and other Palestinian fighters are likely in the early stages of the reconstitution of their military and governance capabilities in the northern Gaza Strip.
• The West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters seven times across the West Bank on January 22.
• Northern Israel and Southern Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 22.
• Iraq: The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Iraqi airline Fly Baghdad for aiding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force and its militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Syria and Iraq on January 22.
• Yemen: The Houthis claimed that they conducted a missile attack targeting an American military cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden on January 22.
• Iran: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) held a funeral ceremony in Tehran on January 22 for three IRGC Quds Force officers that Israel killed in Syria. Israel’s strike on January 20 was a response to Iran’s efforts to accelerate its supply of military equipment to Hezbollah, which is using the equipment to support attacks into northern Israel.

Iran Update, January 21, 2024

• The United States, Egypt, and Qatar are pushing a new, multi-part plan to end the Israel-Hamas war. The US-Egyptian-Qatari plan will enable Hamas to reconstitute and present a continued threat to Israel. This proposed plan, as reported, does not include any provisions to disarm Hamas.
• Israeli forces raided an underground tunnel in a civilian area of Khan Younis that previously held Israeli hostages.
• Palestinian militias conducted five indirect fire attacks targeting southern Israel on January 21.
• Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in four locations across the West Bank on January 20 after CTP-ISW's data cutoff.
• Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel targeting Israeli towns and military facilities on January 21.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two one-way drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria on January 21.

The United States, Egypt, and Qatar are pushing a new, multi-part plan to end the Israel-Hamas war.[i] The plan contains three parts that will occur over a 90-day period, according to the Wall Street Journal. Hamas would first release all civilian hostages in return for Israel releasing “hundreds” of Palestinian prisoners. Israel would also withdraw its forces from population centers in the Gaza Strip, allow freedom of movement throughout the Gaza Strip, end “surveillance,” and double the flow of humanitarian aid into the strip. Hamas would release all female Israeli soldiers and return the bodies of dead hostages to Israel in the second stage. Finally, Hamas would release the remaining Israeli soldiers and fighting-age males, while Israeli forces withdraw from the strip completely. An Egyptian official told the Wall Street Journal that the parties to the agreement are considering “safety guarantees” for Hamas’ political leadership and the formation of an “international fund” for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. After the 90-day period, the plan would lead to a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the relaunching of a process to form a Palestinian state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his rejection of a “ceasefire” in exchange for the release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas in a video published on January 21.[ii] Netanyahu was not explicitly responding to the US-Egyptian-Qatari plan. Netanyahu noted that an end to the war that leaves Hamas intact means that the next October 7 attack is “a matter of time.” Netanyahu laid out the Israeli war aims—”deradicalization” of Palestinian society, demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, and the destruction of Hamas—in the Wall Street Journal on December 25, 2023.[iii]

The US-Egyptian-Qatari plan will enable Hamas to reconstitute and present a continued threat to Israel. This proposed plan, as reported, does not include any provisions to disarm Hamas. Hamas will be able to rebuild its governance capabilities in the Gaza Strip, which allowed it to generate funds for its operations prior to its October 7 attack.[iv] Hamas would essentially have access to the same resource pools that it had prior to the war. Hamas fighters are already reinfiltrating areas that Israeli forces cleared in the northern Gaza Strip, which will facilitate Hamas’ reconstitution.[v] This reinfiltration process would accelerate under the implementation of the first phase of the proposed plan, in which Israeli forces would leave Gazan cities and towns.[vi] “Safety guarantees” for Hamas’ political leadership would protect some of the planners of the October 7 attacks, possibly including Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar is Hamas’ political leader in the Gaza Strip. He closely collaborates with Hamas military leaders Mohammad Deif and Marwan Issa.[vii] Sinwar also founded and led Hamas’ internal security apparatus and is responsible for the deaths of many Palestinians and Israelis in that role.[viii]

Iran Update, January 20, 2024

1. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in eastern Jabalia on January 20. A local Gazan activist also reported that an Israeli armor convoy reentered eastern Jabalia from the Gaza “envelope.”
2. The IDF 7th Armored Brigade continued clearing operations in Khan Younis City on January 20.
3. Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces three times across Nablus Governorate in the West Bank on January 19.
4. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted three attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel targeting Israeli military facilities.
5. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a missile attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq, on January 20.
6. The IRGC announced on January 20 that Israel killed five IRGC “advisors” in an airstrike on Al Mazzah, Damascus, Syria
7. US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted two separate preemptive airstrikes on January 19 and 20 targeting anti-ship missiles that the Houthis had prepared to launch from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen towards the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

Iran Update, January 19, 2024

1. The Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting the Marshall Islands-flagged, US-owned, Greek-operated Chem Ranger commercial vessel in the Gulf of Aden on January 18.
2. The Houthis continued to frame US airstrikes in Yemen as part of a US regional “escalation” on January 19. The Houthis and their allies throughout the region—including Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq—threatened on January 17 and 18 to expand the war in the Middle East by targeting other US and UK interests outside of the Red Sea region.
3. Iranian officials explicitly stated on January 19 that the January 15 IRGC missile strikes in Idlib Province, Syria, were meant to signal Iran’s ability to attack Israel directly.
4. Iranian-backed political actors are continuing to try to pressure the Iraqi federal government to expel US forces from Iraq.
5. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are continuing to try to install their preferred candidate as Iraqi parliament speaker.
6. Palestinian fighters continued to attack Israeli forces in three areas of the northern Gaza Strip where Israeli forces previously conducted clearing operations.
7. Israeli forces under the command of the Menashe Brigade concluded a 45-hour counter-terrorism operation in Tulkarm on January 19.
8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it shot down a US Air Force (USAF) MQ-9 Reaper drone in Diyala Province, Iraq, on January 18.
9. Iran and Pakistan continued to deescalate tensions following the exchange of strikes on each other’s territory in recent days.

Iran Update, January 18, 2024

1. The Pakistani armed forces conducted cross-border attacks targeting Baloch separatists in three locations near Saravan, Iran. Iranian officials and state media attempted to deescalate after the Pakistani airstrikes.
2. The Houthi supreme leader, Abdulmalik al Houthi, stated that US and UK vessels have become legitimate targets for Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi said that the group would interpret an attack on the Houthis as an attack on KH in a letter to the Houthi supreme leader.
3. Palestinian fighters are attacking Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip where Israeli forces previously conducted clearing operations. This activity is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Hamas is likely reinfiltrating some of these areas.
4. Israeli forces destroyed Hamas’ main weapons manufacturing facility in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip. Israeli clearing operations are likely one of the factors constraining Palestinian militias‘ ability to conduct indirect fire attacks into Israel.
5. The IDF Givati Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) raided an outpost of Hamas’ Southern Khan Younis Battalion in southern Khan Younis City. Palestinian fighters launched multiple attacks targeting Israeli forces in and around Khan Younis City.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters six times across the West Bank. Israeli forces continued raids targeting Palestinian fighters in the Tulkarm refugee camp.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Unspecified fighters launched three rockets into the Golan Heights from Syria as well.
8. Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh, Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri, and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki discussed efforts to “strengthen national sovereignty” in a meeting.
9. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani reiterated that he seeks to restructure the presence of US-led coalition forces in Iraq during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
10. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian discussed the January 15 IRGC drone and missile strikes in Erbil, Iraq, with Iraqi National Security Adviser Qassem al Araji in a phone call.
11. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting US forces in Himu, northeastern Syria.
12. The Jordanian Royal Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian-linked drug smuggling operations in southern Syria.

Iran Update, January 17, 2024

1. Palestinian fighters are attacking Israeli forces in areas of the northern Gaza Strip where Israeli forces conducted clearing operations previously.
2. The Gaza Strip is experiencing the longest, largest-scale internet blackout since the Israel-Hamas war began.
3. Israel and Hamas began implementing a deal on January 17 that aims to supply medicine for Israeli hostages in exchange for additional humanitarian flow into the Gaza Strip.
4. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said that the likelihood of war in northern Israel is “higher than before” on January 17 while attending IDF drills simulating an offensive in Lebanon.
5. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani is attempting to retain some US presence in Iraq by restructuring Iraq’s security agreement, despite pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi groups to expel US forces entirely. This policy is at odds with Iranian-backed Iraqi actors’ maximalist demands to immediately remove all US forces from Iraq.
6. The US State Department redesignated the Houthis as specially designated global terrorists on January 17.
7. The Pakistani government has strongly condemned and warned of possible retaliation for the IRGC strikes.

Iran Update, January 16, 2024

1. Palestinian militias are likely re-infiltrating into areas of the northern Gaza Strip where Israeli forces previously conducted clearing operations.
2. The IDF 646th Paratroopers Brigade (assigned to the 99th Division) continued to conduct clearing operations in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
3. The New York Times reported that the IDF now believes that there are more tunnels underneath the Gaza Strip than previously thought.
4. The 98th Division conducted clearing operations focused on locating Hamas leadership and degrading Hamas’ Khan Younis Battalion in the southern Gaza Strip.
5. The IDF announced Special Forces Unit 217 (Duvdevan) operating under the 89th Commando Brigade withdrew from the southern Gaza Strip.
6. A low-level Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander told Israeli intelligence he received military training in Iran before Hamas’ October 7 attack.
7. Hamas and Israel reached a deal to supply medicine to Israeli hostages in exchange for additional humanitarian aid inflows to the Gaza Strip.
8. The al Qassem Brigades fired rockets from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters four times across the West Bank.
10. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
11. Iran conducted three drone and missile strikes abroad.
12. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted a long-range cruise missile attack targeting Israel.

Iran Update, January 15, 2024

1. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are trying to install their preferred candidate as Iraqi parliament speaker as part of their ongoing campaign to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. Israeli forces have continued targeting the remaining Palestinian fighters and militia infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip.
3. The IDF announced that it withdrew the 36th Division from the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
4. The IDF 646th Paratroopers Brigade Combat Team (assigned to the 99th Division) continued to conduct clearing operations in Nuseirat in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
5. The IDF 98th Division continued clearing operations in the southern Gaza Strip.
6. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Hamas’ “Khan Younis Brigade is gradually disintegrating as a fighting force.
7. The Gaza Strip is experiencing the longest, large-scale internet blackout since the Israel-Hamas war began.
8. The al Quds Brigades fired rockets from the Gaza Strip targeting Sderot in southern Israel.
9. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades announced the establishment of a “military council” to plan attacks on Israeli targets “in every corner of the Earth.”
10. Two West Bank residents conducted a car-ramming attack in Raanana, killing one civilian and wounding 17 others.
11. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters five times across the West Bank, compared to the weekly average of nine attacks per day.
12. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
13. Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech detailing the state of the Israel-Hamas war and ongoing Iranian-backed escalation against the United States throughout the region.
14. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed four attacks on three US positions in Iraq and Syria.
15. The Houthis continued attacking and harassing US naval forces and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Iran Update, January 14, 2024

1. Israel Defense Forces units in the central Gaza Strip are isolating Maghazi.
2. The Israel Defense Forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis City.
3. The Israel Defense Forces continued clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip around Atatra and Beit Lahia.
4. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Israel will continue its fight against Hamas until the IDF achieves a “complete victory.
5. Hamas’ al Qassem Brigades and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s al Quds Brigades each conducted one rocket attack targeting southern Israel.
6. Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces in five locations across the West Bank.
7. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed two attacks on US forces in northwestern Syria.

Iran Update, January 13, 2024

1. The Iranian-backed Badr Organization announced the submission of a draft law that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq. This law aims to increase pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani and to force him to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. Israeli forces destroyed military infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip.
3. Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces in three locations across the West Bank.
4. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
5. The USS Carney launched Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles targeting a Houthi radar site at Dailami Airbase near Sana’a.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a rocket attack targeting US forces at the Conoco facility in northwestern Syria.

Iran Update, January 12, 2024

1. The United States and the United Kingdom conducted joint strikes on January 11 that targeted Houthi military facilities to degrade the group’s capability to attack ships transiting the Red Sea.
2. The Houthis will likely continue to attempt attacks against international shipping in the Red Sea because the January 11 airstrikes do not sufficiently threaten the Houthis’ position within Yemen.
3. Palestinian militias in the northern Gaza Strip are disrupting Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations to destroy military infrastructure and secure areas bordering Israel.
4. The IDF is conducting clearing operations in Bureij and Maghazi in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
5. The IDF continued clearing operations in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed two attacks targeting Israel on January 12.

Iran Update, January 11, 2024

1. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in the central Gaza Strip.
2. The IDF 98th Division continued clearing operations in Khan Younis.
3. Hamas and other unspecified Palestinian political factions discussed the state of the Israel-Hamas war in an “emergency national meeting,” which may signal that Palestinian political factions are considering re-opening indirect talks with Israel after talks froze on January 2.
4. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 11 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
5. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a rocket attack targeting US forces at al Shaddadi, Hasakah Province, Syria.[i]
6. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein stated that the Iraqi federal government will announce a start date soon for talks to remove US forces from Iraq during an interview with Saudi-owned al Arabiya.
7. Houthi Spokesperson Mohammad Abdulsalam rejected United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2722 and announced that the Houthis will continue to target Israeli ships in the Red Sea.
8. An online shipping tracker organization reported that the IRGC spy ship Behshad, which provides the Houthis with real-time intelligence has left the Red Sea and is en route to Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, Iran.

Iran Update, January 10, 2024

1. Hamas published several videos of its operations in the northern Gaza Strip, messaging that it still has a military presence there. The al Qassem Brigades and other Palestinian militias are not destroyed in the northern Gaza Strip and maintain a limited presence there, especially around southern Gaza City.
2. A Palestinian journalist reported that Israeli forces “repositioned” themselves in Gaza City after withdrawing from several areas in the city over the past two weeks.
3. The Israel Defense Forces continued clearing operations in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias continued attempting to defend against Israeli clearing operations in the central Gaza Strip.
4. The Israel Defense Forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces said that it completed operations in Khuzaa, south of Khan Younis.
5. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with NBC News that normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is still possible.
6. Israeli media reported that the latest Qatari proposal for a ceasefire agreement would include exiling Hamas leaders from the Gaza Strip.
7. Palestinian fighters attacked Israeli forces conducting raids in five locations in the West Bank. Hamas Political Bureau leaders have in recent days called attention to violence and Israeli raids in the West Bank.
8. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted two attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 10, compared to the weekly average of around nine attacks.
9. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani is attempting to balance pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi actors to expel US forces from Iraq with his administration’s reported desire to sustain the US-led coalition presence in Iraq.
10. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria.
11. The Houthis conducted their largest and most complex attack yet into the Red Sea.
12. Iran has reportedly developed a new Shahed drone for Russian forces to use against Ukraine and is “close” to providing Russia with surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and systems.

Iran Update, January 9, 2024

1. A Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated organization invited Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh to deliver a major speech at its General Assembly in Doha. Haniyeh laid out his most comprehensive argument to date about Hamas’ October 7 attack into Israel and appealed for donations and weapons transfers.
2. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip.
3. The Israel Defense Forces continued clearing operations in Maghazi and Bureij in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
4. Israeli forces expanded clearing operations in some urban areas of southern Khan Younis City. Palestinian militias continued attempting to defend against Israeli clearing operations Khan Younis.
5. Israeli and Egyptian delegations met in Cairo to discuss resuming talks on the release of hostages and a ceasefire agreement.
6. Palestinian militias conducted two indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
7. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in nine locations across the West Bank.
8. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a one-way drone and rocket attack targeting the IDF Northern Command headquarters in Safed, Israel. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine other attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
9. The Israel Defense Forces killed Lebanese Hezbollah Air Force Commander for Southern Lebanon Ali Hussein Burji in an airstrike in southern Lebanon.
10. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated that Israel’s top priority is enabling displaced Israeli citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel in a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
11. The Iraqi federal government continues to fail to protect US forces, who are deployed to fight the Islamic State, from Iranian-backed militia attacks while also rejecting the United States’ right to defend its servicemembers in Iraq. Politico reported that senior advisers to the Iraqi prime minister privately told US officials that he seeks to keep US forces in Iraq.
12. Kataib Hezbollah spokesperson Jafar al Husseini warned that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would help Lebanese Hezbollah fight Israel if war erupted between Israel and Hezbollah.
13. The Jordanian Royal Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian-linked drug smuggling operations in southern Syria. This airstrike is part of growing Jordanian operations against these smuggling networks.

Iran Update, January 8, 2024

1. PIJ released a video on January 8 showing one of its Israeli hostages appealing for a renewed hostage exchange with Israel, which is an effort to pressure the Israeli government to agree to a ceasefire.
2. IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari reported on January 8 that the war “shifted to a stage” that will involve fewer ground forces and airstrikes in the Gaza Strip.
3. The IDF killed a senior commander in LH’s Radwan Unit, Wissam Hassan al Tawil, in an airstrike on January 8.
4. Tawil’s death in southern Lebanon indicates that LH is not complying with UNSC Resolution 1701, which mandates that LH cannot deploy military forces south of the Litani River. UNSC Resolution 1701 ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War.
5. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba spokesperson Hussein Moussawi stated that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted an attack targeting Haifa, Israel, on January 7 to signal to Israel its ability to attack targets “beyond [Haifa].”
6. An Iraqi official close to the Shia Coordination Framework claimed on January 7 that the framework recently “authorized” Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani to discuss the removal of US forces from Iraq with the US Government.

Iran Update, January 7, 2024

1. The Israel Defense Forces announced that it “dismantled” the 12 Hamas battalions in the northern Gaza Strip. CTP-ISW has warned that the third phase of Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip, as described, will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily.
2. The Israel Defense Forces reported that it uncovered evidence of Iran training Hamas in constructing precision munitions in the Gaza Strip.
3. The Nahal Brigade Combat Team located a Palestinian compound with dozens of rocket launchers in Beit Lahia.
4. The Golani Brigade continued conducting clearing operations in Maghazi and Bureij in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
5. The Kfir Brigade continued conducting clearing operations in Khan Younis.
6. Former IDF Military Intelligence Directorate chief Amos Yadlin reported that the IDF knows where Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is located but that he has surrounded himself with many of the remaining hostages, which complicates Israeli targeting.
7. The al Quds Brigades fired five rocket salvos from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
8. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters ten times across the West Bank.
9. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 14 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
10. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted a long-range cruise missile attack targeting Haifa. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also conducted two one-way drone attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria.
11. Unspecified actors conducted an airstrike targeting an Iranian-backed militia convoy reportedly transferring military equipment in Albu Kumal, Syria. Israel has conducted an air campaign in Syria in recent months meant to disrupt Iranian military transfers into the Levant.
12. The Jordanian armed forces reported that they eliminated five Iranian-backed militia members attempting to smuggle drugs and weapons into Jordan from southern Syria.
13. IRGC Quds Force officer Brigadier General Eraj Masjedi stated that the Palestinian militias will eventually obtain unspecified “defensive weapons” that would prevent Israel from conducting airstrikes into the Gaza Strip.

Iran Update, January 6, 2024

1. Hamas’ military wing, the al Qassem Brigades, is reporting some attacks in the central and southern Gaza Strip only after its fighters return to rear areas. The delays in reporting to higher headquarters may indicate a loss of command-and-control over some al Qassem Brigades units engaged with Israeli forces.
2. The al Qassem Brigades have only conducted three rocket attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip since December 21, indicating that Israeli operations have severely degraded Hamas’ rocket capability.
3. The Hamas-run Gazan Health Ministry reported on January 6 that some operating rooms at al Shifa hospital resumed operations.
4. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that it clashed with Israeli forces in 7 locations across the West Bank.
5. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed that it fired 62 rockets and anti-tank guided missiles targeting an IDF facility on Mount Meron.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for drone attacks targeting two US positions in Syria on January 5.
7. The Houthis continued attacking and harassing US naval forces and commercial shipping in the Red Sea on January 6. Houthi military leaders signaled on January 6 that they intend to retaliate for the US self-defense fire that killed ten Houthi fighters on December 30.
8. Iranian officials continued emphasizing the false narrative that the United States created ISIS to blame the United States and Israel for the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran.

Iran Update, January 5, 2024

1. Iran and its proxies—not the United States—are driving escalation in the region to advance their long-held strategic objectives. An end to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip will not on its own stop Iranian escalation because Iran’s effort to expel the United States from the region and decrease US influence transcends the war.
2. Iran and its Iraqi proxies are advancing their campaign to expel US forces from Iraq.
3. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant released a four-pronged security and governance plan for the Gaza Strip.
4. Lebanese Hezbollah continued to signal that it does not seek escalation to a full-fledged war with Israel while Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
5. Iranian state media is downplaying the connection between Afghanistan and the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran, and blaming the United States and Israel for the attack
6. Iraqi police discovered an Iranian-designed land attack cruise missile in southern Iraq on January 5.

Iran Update, January 4, 2024

1. Iranian-backed actors in Iraq have intensified their effort to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reported that Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip “are completing the current mission” as part of their transition to a third phase of operations there.
3. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip.
4. Israel moved the evacuation corridor running north-to-south from Salah al Din Road to the coastal road in the Gaza Strip.
5. Palestinian militias tried to defend against Israeli advances in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
6. Israeli forces have degraded the command-and-control capacity of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade, according to the Israel Defense Forces.
7. Hamas’ naval special operations forces have reinforced Palestinian fighters defending Khan Younis via tunnel systems.
8. The al Quds Brigades fired rockets at Ashkelon from the northern Gaza Strip.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 10 times across the West Bank. Hamas called for continued and intensifying anti-Israel demonstrations in the West Bank in response to Israel killing senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri.
10. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
11. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted two drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria.
12. US NAVCENT Commander Vice Admiral Brad Cooper stated that the Houthis tried to conduct an unmanned surface vessel attack in the Red Sea, marking the first instance of them doing so since the Israel-Hamas war began.
13. Afghan branch of the Islamic State—named Islamic State Khorasan Province—claimed responsibility for the recent terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran. CTP-ISW that ISKP terrorist attacks inside Iran will likely exacerbate tensions between Iran and the Afghan Taliban.
14. The New York Times reported that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered his military commanders to exercise “strategic patience” vis-a-vis the United States on an unspecified date, citing unspecified sources familiar with internal regime discussions.
15. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated that Russia has already launched ballistic missiles acquired from North Korea at targets in Ukraine and continues efforts to acquire similar missiles from Iran.

Iran Update, January 3, 2024

1. Palestinian militias continued to try to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City on January 3. Palestinian militias are attacking Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance in Gaza City.
2. Hamas, PIJ, and other Palestinian groups condemned the killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri.
3. Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah signaled on January 3 that LH will not immediately escalate against Israel for Israel’s “surgical strike” killing Hamas deputy political bureau chairman Saleh Arouri in Beirut.
4. Senior Iranian and Axis of Resistance leaders condemned Israel’s killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri.
5. Unspecified fighters conducted a terrorist attack near Qassem Soleimani’s burial site in Kerman on the fourth anniversary of Soleimani’s death. Bloomberg News reported that the United States initially believes that the Islamic State or a related group was responsible for the attack.
6. The Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles at the Malta-flagged commercial vessel CMA CGM TAGE in the Red Sea. US CENTCOM reported that this was the 24th Houthi attack on maritime shipping in the Red Sea since November 19.
7. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba warned that Iraqi militias will conduct an “unprecedented escalation” to expel US forces from Iraq if the Iraqi federal government orders US forces to withdraw from Iraq and the United States does not comply with its request.

Iran Update, January 2, 2024

1. Israeli forces are transitioning to the third phase of their operations in the northern Gaza Strip, which will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily. Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” will very likely continue their regional escalation against the United States and Israel, despite Israel withdrawing some of its forces from the Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces conducted a “surgical strike” targeting senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri in southern Beirut. LH harbors Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) officials in Lebanon and permits them to conduct attacks into Israel.
3. Israeli forces raided a Hamas and PIJ command and control center in Gaza City’s Shujaiya neighborhood.
4. Israeli forces captured a Hamas compound in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City.
5. Palestinian militias are attempting to defend against Israeli advances in Bureij in the central Gaza Strip.
6. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israeli forces are “isolating” Khan Younis to find Hamas fighters underground.
7. Israel rejected a Hamas-proposed, three-phase hostage-for-prisoner deal. The proposal is not compatible with Israeli war aims, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.
8. The al Qassem Brigades fired a large salvo of rockets at Tel Aviv.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in Jenin following demonstrations organized by Palestinian militia groups on January 1. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in eight locations across the West Bank on January 2.
10. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least three attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 1 and another eight attacks on January 2.
11. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted eight drone and rocket attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria. The group also claimed an unspecified attack targeting Eilat in southern Israel.
12. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with senior Houthi official Mohammad Abdul Salam in Tehran.