Iran Updates July 2024

Iran Update, July 31, 2024

Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 30. Israeli agents appeared to have launched an explosively laden drone or missile from inside Iran to target Haniyeh, who was visiting for the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh was staying at a facility with the IRGC Quds Force in northern Tehran.[1] The killing of Haniyeh reflects the degree to which Israel has infiltrated the Iranian security sector and is able to strike high-value targets within Iran. Hamas responded to the killing by calling on Middle Eastern countries to “deter” and “rein in” Israel.[2] Hamas also threatened to expand the war against Israel to ”new dimensions.”[3]

Iran is signaling that it will retaliate directly for Israel killing Haniyeh. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), which is the seniormost Iranian defense and foreign policy body, held an emergency meeting on July 31 to discuss the killing of Haniyeh.[4] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attended the SNSC meeting, which is rare but normal during serious crises, including immediately following the United States killing Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.[5] Three anonymous Iranian officials told the New York Times that Khamenei ordered a direct strike on Israel during the SNSC meeting.[6] Khamenei later published a statement that blamed Israel directly and vowed retaliation.[7] The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) similarly published a statement saying that the Axis of Resistance and ”especially Iran” will retaliate against Israel.[8] Iran separately raised the red flag of Imam Hossein over the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom, which signals an Iranian intent to seek revenge.[9] Iran similarly raised the red flag after the United States killed Soleimani.

One of the most dangerous courses of action would be Iran and other members of the Axis of Resistance conducting a large-scale, combined drone and missile attack into Israel. Iran could launch an attack similar to the one it conducted against Israel in April 2024, which involved around 300 drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.[10] Iran could target multiple locations in Israel or mass its fire on a single target. Using a large strike package against even a single target could still appear as a widespread attack. This scenario would also involve simultaneous attacks from other members of the Axis of Resistance, such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. Such a combined Iranian-Axis of Resistance attack would be especially dangerous because attacking from multiple direction would put greater pressure on Israeli air defenses than the Iranian attack in April 2024 did. The United States and Israel were furthermore able to defend against the Iranian attack in April 2024 so effectively in part because it took the attack drones several hours to get from Iran to Israel.[11] That hours-long period gave the United States, Israel, and their regional partners time to prepare their defenses and intercept all of the drones. The United States and Israel would have far less warning and opportunity to intercept if the Axis of Resistance launched large swarms of drones from Iraq, Lebanon, or Syria toward Israel. Hezbollah may be especially incentivized to participate in such an attack given its desire to retaliate for Israel killing Fuad Shukr in Beirut, though Hezbollah has not yet indicated that it would retaliate for the killing of Shukr at the time of this writing. CTP-ISW has noted previously that Hezbollah and the Houthis have probed Israeli air defenses to better understand the strengths and weaknesses.[12]

Lebanese Hezbollah confirmed that the IDF killed one of its seniormost commanders, Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30.[13] Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is expected to speak on Hezbollah’s “political position” at Shukr’s funeral on August 1.[14] The IDF Air Force targeted Shukr in a building in southern Beirut, where Hezbollah has a deep and long-standing presence.[15] The IDF was responding to a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children in the Golan Heights on July 27. IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said that Shukr gave the orders for the rocket attack.[16]

Shukr had led the Hezbollah attack campaign into northern Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began.[17] Shukr has been described as Nasrallah’s ”right-hand man” and roughly equivalent to the chief of staff of Hezbollah forces.[18] Hezbollah said in a statement mourning Shukr that he was part of Hezbollah’s founding generation and fought in the 1982 and 2006 wars in Lebanon.[19] Shukr later served on Hezbollah’s highest decision-making body—the Shura Council—as well as its top military body—the Jihad Council—since its founding.[20] The IDF stated that Shukr managed Hezbollah’s advanced weapons arsenal, including sophisticated drones, missiles, and rockets.[21] Several Palestinian militias, including Hamas, mourned Shukr’s death and lauded his central role in the war against Israel.[22]

The United States conducted a self-defense strike on July 30 targeting Iranian-backed militants in Iraq, who were preparing to launch a one-way attack drone.[23] The United States deemed the drone to be a threat to US and International Coalition forces given the recent Iranian-backed militia attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria.[24] The US strike comes as Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have resumed their campaign to expel US forces from Iraq and Syria. The Iraqi militants whom the United States struck were affiliated with prominent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah.[25] The United States killed four Iraqi militants and wounded another four, according to Reuters.[26] Kataib Hezbollah claimed that the United States struck ”drone experts,” who were working to implement new security measures for Shia pilgrims.[27] Kataib Hezbollah also claimed that the United States launched the self-defense strike from Kuwait and warned Kuwait against allowing the United States to launch attacks from its territory.[28]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran is signaling that it will retaliate directly. One of the most dangerous courses of action would be Iran and the Axis of Resistance launching a large-scale, combined drone and missile attack into Israel.
• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah confirmed that Israel killed one of its seniormost commanders, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah will address the killing of Shukr during his funeral on August 1.
• Iraq: The United States conducted a self-defense strike targeting Iranian backed militants in Iraq, who were preparing to launch a one-way attack drone. Iranian-backed militias have resumed their campaign to expel US forces from Iraq and Syria in recent days.

Iran Update, July 30, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) likely killed a senior Lebanese Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut on July 30. The IDF Air Force targeted Fuad Shukr in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights on July 27.[i] The IDF claimed that the strike killed Shukr while Lebanese sources said he survived the strike.[ii] A Saudi government-owned media outlet and a Lebanese outlet both also confirmed that Shukr died in the strike.[iii] Hezbollah has not commented at the time of this writing. Shukr was a senior military advisor to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and equivalent to “Hezbollah‘s chief of staff,“ according to Israeli media.[iv] He also served on Hezbollah's highest military body, the Jihad Council.[v] Shukr is the second member of the Jihad Council whom the IDF has killed. The IDF also killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps representative to the Jihad Council, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, on April 1 in Damascus.[vi] The IDF claimed that Shukr headed a Hezbollah unit responsible for maintaining advanced weaponry and planning attacks against Israel.[vii] The IDF initially did not specify that the strike targeted Shukr, only that it struck “the commander responsible for” the Majdal Shams rocket attack.[viii]

CTP-ISW is considering two possible Hezbollah courses of action after the IDF strike that likely killed Fuad Shukr:

• Hezbollah may decide to respond with a major rocket and drone barrage on northern Israel that resembles previous Hezbollah attacks in retaliation for previous IDF strikes on senior commanders. Hezbollah has previously responded by launching salvoes of 100+ rockets targeting IDF bases in northern Israel and the Golan Heights.[ix] Hezbollah could attempt to build a strike package that it calibrates to avoid a strong Israeli response, thereby allowing tensions on the border to diffuse and return to the standard tit-for-tat attacks. Hezbollah’s strike package would presumably be larger and strike deeper into Israel than past retaliatory attacks given Shukr’s seniority, however.[x] Israeli sources said immediately after the strike targeting Shukr that this would be the extent of Israel’s response to the Majdal Shams rocket attack, and that further escalation is dependent on Hezbollah's response.[xi]  Hezbollah officials messaged on July 29 that Hezbollah did not want an all-out war, suggesting that Hezbollah will temper its response to deescalate the situation.[xii] There remains the risk that even a carefully calculated strike package would unintentionally strike a sensitive target in Israel and prompt further escalation.
• Hezbollah may decide that in order to restore deterrence with Israel, it needs to conduct a more significant attack that targets civilian and military areas deep inside Israel. This is the less likely but more dire course of action. Hezbollah could calculate that the Israeli strike targeting a senior Hezbollah leader in Beirut who was personally close to Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah crosses a red line and requires a strong Hezbollah show of force to restore deterrence. A senior Lebanese Hezbollah official told Al Jazeera before the targeted strike on Shukr that Hezbollah would respond to any attack on Lebanon and that Hezbollah is capable of striking military installations in Haifa, the Golan Heights and Ramat David.[xiii]  Nasrallah threatened on July 17 to attack civilian targets deep into Israel in response to Israeli airstrikes that kill Lebanese civilians.[xiv] The IAF strike in southern Beirut killed at least three people and injured 74, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health speaking to Hezbollah-run media.[xv]

Iran gave its “full blessing” to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to resume attacks targeting US forces if Israel conducts a “massive retaliatory assault” targeting Hezbollah and/or non-Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, according to a senior Iraqi militia leader who spoke to BBC on July 30.[xvi] The militia leader emphasized that “Lebanon, and not only Hezbollah, is our red line.”[xvii] It is unclear whether Israel’s retaliatory strike targeting Fuad Shukr on July 30 constitutes a “massive retaliatory assault.” The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted over 160 attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria between October 2023 and February 2024.[xviii] The group suspended attacks targeting US forces following a one-way drone attack that killed three US personnel in northeastern Jordan in late 2024.[xix] The militia leader told BBC that senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders are currently in Tehran to attend Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration ceremony.[xx] He added that the militia leaders have met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and unspecified Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and IRGC Quds Force commanders on the sidelines of the ceremony.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has officially resumed its attack campaign targeting US forces in the Middle East.[xxi] Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba spokesperson Mahdi al Kaabi announced the resumption of the attack campaign on July 30 and warned that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq could target US bases “at any moment.”[xxii] Kaabi added that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq “does not believe [that the United States should have] advisers or bases [in Iraq]” and emphasized the need for Iraq to diversity its sources of weapons and military equipment.[xxiii] Kaabi’s announcement follows recent warnings from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that they would resume attacks targeting US forces if the Iraqi federal government did not set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.[xxiv] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have conducted four attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria since July 16.[xxv] CTP-ISW assessed on July 17 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appeared to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq.[xxvi]  

The Iranian Parliament swore in Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s ninth president on July 30.[xxvii] Many Iranian political and military officials, as well as 88 foreign delegations, attended the inaugurations.[xxviii]  Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf claimed that Iran did not experience the “slightest tension” in the transition from Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency to Masoud Pezeshkian‘s presidency during a speech at the inauguration ceremony.[xxix]  President Masoud Pezeshkian also gave a speech in which he described himself as ”belonging to all Iranians and committed to the priority of national interests.”[xxx] Pezeshkian vowed to try to solve economic issues, such as high costs of living. Pezeshkian added that “the priority of my foreign policy is to strengthen relations with neighboring countries,“ echoing former President Ebrahim Raisi’s ”neighborhood policy.”[xxxi] This policy seeks to build relations with regional states.[xxxii] He condemned Israeli actions in the Israel-Hamas war and affirmed his support for Palestinians.[xxxiii] Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran’s ”commitment” to negotiations should have brought ”negotiating parties to the understanding that [Iran adheres] to [its] commitments.”[xxxiv] This comment is consistent with previous regime statements that place the onus of returning to nuclear negotiations on the West, and particularly on the United States.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and newly sworn-in President Masoud Pezeshkian held meetings with numerous foreign officials and Axis of Resistance leaders on the sidelines of the presidential inauguration on July 29 and 30. Khamenei met with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah to discuss regional security, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, and Iranian cooperation with Hamas and PIJ.[xxxv] Khamenei also met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.[xxxvi] Khamenei described the Zangezur Corridor as ”detrimental to Armenia” during his meeting with Pashinyan.[xxxvii] The Iranian regime has historically opposed Azerbaijani and Turkish efforts to establish the Zangezur corridor between Azerbaijan proper and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic because such a corridor would sever Iran’s land access to Russia and Europe via Armenia.[xxxviii] President Masoud Pezeshkian also met separately with Haniyeh and senior Houthi official Mohammad Abdulsalam to discuss the Israel-Hamas War. Pezeshkian underlined Iran’s support for the Palestinian people and the Houthis.[xxxix] Pezeshkian also held meetings with the Armenian prime minister, the Turkmen deputy prime minister, the Georgian prime minister, the Kazakh senate chairman, the Uzbek parliament speaker, the Kyrgyz deputy prime minister and the Malaysian parliament speaker.[xl]

IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri stated that the IRGC Navy seeks to “expand the geography of [its] missions,” which is consistent with the IRGC Navy’s ongoing effort to expand the scope of its operations beyond the Persian Gulf.[xli] Tangsiri made this statement during an IRGC naval commander conference in Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province, on July 30.[xlii] Tangsiri stated that the IRGC Navy seeks to conduct “ocean missions” with the Artesh Navy, which is Iran’s traditional blue-water navy.[xliii] The IRGC Navy is currently responsible for the Persian Gulf, while the Artesh Navy primarily operates around the Caspian Sea and Indian Ocean.[xliv] The IRGC Navy has sought to expand the range of its operations since 2020, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on the IRGC Navy to increase Iran’s ability to confront adversaries in ”distant waters.”[xlv] Tangsiri previously claimed in September 2022 that the IRGC Navy’s Shahid Soleimani could travel 9,000 kilometers from the Persian Gulf.[xlvi] Tangsiri also claimed that the IRGC Navy produces missiles with a range of between 10 and 2,000 kilometers.[xlvii]

The July 29 break-in to an IDF base by Israeli protesters forced IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi to temporarily withdraw from meetings discussing the Israel’s military plans for Lebanon and the situation in northern Israel.[xlviii] An Israeli military correspondent reported that around 1,200 protestors gathered around the Beit Lid base to protest the detainment of nine Israeli soldiers for the alleged "substantial abuse” of a Palestinian fighter in an Israeli detention center.[xlix] The protestors broke into the Beit Lid base to release the detained Israeli soldiers by force and left the base after finding out that the detained Israeli soldiers were no longer there.[l] The IDF postponed the court hearings of non-urgent cases scheduled for July 30 to reduce the presence of civilians in the courtroom after protestors broke into the court premises in Beit Lid on July 29.[li] The IDF reportedly moved additional troops from across the West Bank to reinforce the security of the Beit Lid base.[lii]

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) likely killed a senior Lebanese Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut on July 30. Hezbollah may decide to respond with a major rocket and drone barrage on northern Israel that resembles previous Hezbollah attacks in retaliation for previous IDF strikes on senior commanders. In an alternative scenario, Hezbollah may decide that in order to restore deterrence with Israel, it needs to conduct a more significant attack that targets civilian and military areas deep inside Israel.

Iran: Iran gave its “full blessing” to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to resume attacks targeting US forces if Israel conducts a “massive retaliatory assault” targeting Hezbollah and/or non-Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, according to a senior Iraqi militia leader who spoke to BBC on July 30. It is unclear whether Israel’s retaliatory strike targeting Fuad Shukr on July 30 constitutes a “massive retaliatory assault.”

Iraq and Syria: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has officially resumed its attack campaign targeting US forces in the Middle East. CTP-ISW assessed on July 17 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appeared to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq.

Iranian Presidential Inauguration: The Iranian Parliament swore in Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s ninth president on July 30. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and newly sworn-in President Masoud Pezeshkian held meetings with numerous foreign officials and Axis of Resistance leaders on the sidelines of the presidential inauguration on July 29 and 30.

Iran Update, July 29, 2024

The Israeli Security Cabinet approved an Israeli military response against Lebanese Hezbollah on July 28. The Israeli Security Cabinet authorized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to determine the “manner and timing” of Israel’s retaliation for the July 27 rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.[i] Lebanese Hezbollah likely conducted the attack, which killed 12 Israeli children.[ii] Hezbollah’s decisions—including the Hezbollah decision to shift to using more advanced weapons systems to attack Israel—increased the risk that a Hezbollah attack would cause significant Israeli civilian or military casualties, either by design or incidentally.[iii] Israeli military and political officials vowed immediately after the attack to respond “harshly” and ”take Hezbollah backwards.“[iv]

Unspecified Israeli security officials stated that Israel is ready to implement a response plan ”without delay” following the Security Cabinet’s approval.[v] Security cabinet approval is required by law for significant offensive military operations.[vi] The extent and strength of Israel’s response is unclear as of this writing, but the IDF reportedly formulated numerous attack scenarios that vary from ”more and less stringent” courses of IDF action. Previous IDF retaliatory strikes in this war have typically struck more sensitive targets located further north in Lebanon, such as higher value munitions or training sites.[vii] The attack on Majdal Shams on July 27 risks triggering a much larger or lengthy response, though, given that the Majdal Shams attack was the deadliest attack on Israeli civilians since the war began. A Hezbollah official told Western media that the group began moving its precision-guided missiles to avoid losing necessary assets in preparation for the attack.[viii] 

Hezbollah officials are messaging that Hezbollah does not want an all-out war, likely in an effort to deescalate the situation. Hezbollah officials told Western media on July 29 that Hezbollah does not want a ”full-blown war” with Israel.[ix]

Israeli officials have also expressed that Israel does not want an all-out war at this time. Unspecified Israeli officials speaking with Israeli and Western media clarified on July 29 that Israel’s response will be “limited but significant” and that Israel has “no intention” of entering an all-out war with Hezbollah.[x] An Israeli diplomatic source told Reuters that Israeli leaders estimate that Israel’s response will not lead to war with Hezbollah as it would “not be in [Israel’s] interest at this point.”[xi]

Iran and its Axis of Resistance are trying to deter Israel from conducting an offensive into Lebanon following the likely Lebanese Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children and teens in Majdal Shams, northern Israel, on July 27. Former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohsen Rezaei warned on July 28 that a Israel-Hezbollah war would be “more dangerous” for Israel than Israel’s war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.[xii] Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani assessed on July 28 that the probability of Israel and Hezbollah going to war is “very low,” but noted that Iran “is not afraid of war” and can defend its Axis of Resistance.[xiii] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah separately warned on July 29 that the “new rules of engagement” in an Israel-Hezbollah war would “not be in the favor of Israel or the United States.”[xiv]

Unspecified Israeli negotiators told an Israeli military correspondent that they are pessimistic that Israel and Hamas will reach a ceasefire agreement following a meeting with mediators in Rome on July 28.[xv] Israel delivered a revised ceasefire proposal to the United States on July 27 according to a senior Israeli official and two unspecified sources with knowledge of the issue cited by Axios.[xvi] The revised proposal calls to establish a ”foreign mechanism” to prevent weapons from moving from the southern Gaza Strip to the northern Gaza Strip according to an unspecified Israeli official cited by Axios on July 27.[xvii] Israel issued a stipulation during negotiations in early July that would establish checkpoints along an unspecified strategic highway to prevent weapons smuggling.[xviii] The official added that the revised proposal also changed where Israeli forces will be deployed in the Gaza Strip during the first phase of the ceasefire.[xix] The New York Times cited seven officials ”involved in or briefed” on the negotiations in Rome on July 28 who claimed that the IDF’s presence in the Gaza Strip during the ceasefire is a barrier to reaching an agreement.[xx] Hamas claimed that Israel’s revised proposal was a ploy to procrastinate and delay a ceasefire deal.[xxi] An Israeli military correspondent reported that the July 28 meeting in Rome lasted two hours.[xxii]

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei officially endorsed President Masoud Pezeshkian on July 28.[xxiii] Khamenei called on Pezeshkian to prioritize economic issues over sociocultural ones and to work “tirelessly” to solve the country’s economic problems, such as high inflation. Khamenei also called on Pezeshkian to continue former President Ebrahim Raisi’s foreign policy of strengthening relations with neighboring countries and to develop ties with unspecified African and Asian countries. Iran has sought to strengthen relations with several African countries, most notably Sudan, Niger, and Zimbabwe, in recent months.[xxiv]

Khamenei signaled openness to pursuing nuclear negotiations with the West, stating that Iran could choose to mend its relations with European countries if these countries stop their “bad behavior”—including imposing sanctions—on Iran.[xxv] Khamenei previously expressed support for both lifting and ”neutralizing” Western sanctions that target Iran’s nuclear program in a speech on July 21.[xxvi] Lifting sanctions refers to pursuing nuclear negotiations with the West, while neutralizing sanctions refers to mitigating and undermining the impact of sanctions, such as by promoting self-sufficiency and economic relations with regional and extra-regional states. The strategies of pursuing nuclear negotiations and trying to mitigate the effects of sanctions are not mutually exclusive. Khamenei previously urged Ebrahim Raisi administration officials to counter the impact of economic sanctions while simultaneously expressing support for sanctions-lifting nuclear negotiations.[xxvii] A new nuclear deal would not necessarily require the United States and its partners to lift all the sanctions they have imposed on Iran, such as sanctions tied to Iran’s drone and missile programs.

Pezeshkian reiterated his support for engaging in “constructive and effective interactions with the world” in a speech following Khamenei’s official endorsement of him as Iran’s nineth president.[xxviii] Pezeshkian repeatedly called for increasing international engagement with the West and endorsed a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action during his presidential campaign.[xxix] Pezeshkian also stressed his commitment to Khamenei's vision for the Islamic Republic and called for national unity and cohesion to implement Khamenei’s “general policies.”[xxx] Pezeshkian’s inauguration ceremony will take place on July 30.[xxxi] Delegations from China, Iraq, Niger, Russia, and Syria, among other countries, will attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration.[xxxii] A Hamas delegation will also attend the inauguration.[xxxiii]

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appointed former Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani administration officials as his first vice president and chief of staff, respectively.

• Mohammad Reza Aref: Pezeshkian appointed Aref as his first vice president.[xxxiv] Aref is a 73-year-old reformist politician who served as former reformist President Mohammad Khatami’s first vice president between 2001 and 2005.[xxxv] Aref competed in the 2013 presidential election but withdrew in favor of former moderate President Hassan Rouhani.[xxxvi] Aref represented Tehran in Parliament between 2016 and 2020 and currently serves as a member of the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council and the Expediency Discernment Council.[xxxvii]
• Mohsen Haji Mirzaei: Pezeshkian appointed Mirzaei as his chief of staff.[xxxviii] Mirzaei served as Rouhani’s education minister between 2019 and 2021.[xxxix]

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei approved President Masoud Pezeshkian’s nomination of Abbas Araghchi as his foreign affairs minister, according to unspecified senior Iranian sources speaking to UK-based Amwaj Media.[xl] Pezeshkian has not publicly announced Araghchi’s nomination at the time of this writing, although IRGC-affiliated media reported on July 10 that Pezeshkian’s advisers had “almost reached the final conclusion” to nominate Araghchi.[xli] Araghchi played a prominent role in the nuclear negotiations with the West under the Hassan Rouhani administration and served as Rouhani's deputy foreign affairs minister for policy between 2017 and 2021.[xlii] Pezeshkian’s nomination of Araghchi therefore underscores his intent to seriously pursue nuclear negotiations with the West. It is unclear whether the Iranian Parliament, which is currently dominated by hardliners, would approve Araghchi as foreign affairs minister. An unspecified senior Iranian source told Amwaj Media that Araghchi will likely face a “very, very difficult vote of confidence in this Parliament.”[xliii] Another source told Amwaj Media that the Iranian Parliament will likely approve Araghchi, but that it will “not be easy.”[xliv]

Iran and its revisionist partners are continuing to try to legitimize and bolster one another. Iranian officials congratulated Nicolas Maduro on July 29 on his re-election as the president of Venezuela.[xlv] Local and international observers have noted that the Maduro regime likely rigged the election to ensure Maduro’s victory.[xlvi]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appointed former Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani administration officials as his first vice president and chief of staff, respectively.
• Lebanon: The Israeli Security Cabinet approved an Israeli military response against Lebanese Hezbollah on July 28 as both Israeli officials and Hezbollah messaged that they do not want “all-out war” at this time.
• Gaza Strip: Unspecified Israeli negotiators told an Israeli military correspondent that they are pessimistic that Israel and Hamas will reach a ceasefire agreement following a meeting with mediators in Rome on July 28. Separately, the IDF detained nine Israeli soldiers on July 29 for alleged "substantial abuse” of a Palestinian fighter who the IDF detained for questioning.
• West Bank: The IDF Central Command commander said that the IDF has increased security around Israeli settlements and increased “offensive” measures against Palestinian fighters in the West Bank.

Iran Update, July 28, 2024

Hezbollah likely conducted the July 27 rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children in Majdal Shams, northern Israel. The IDF published a graphic on July 28 showing the Falaq-1 rocket’s flight path, which passed several hundred feet west of the IDF position at Maale Golani, 2km north of Majdal Shams.[1] Hezbollah fired the rocket from north of Shebaa village, southern Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed two attacks targeting Maale Golani on July 27, including one attack in which Hezbollah said that it fired a Falaq-1.[2] Hezbollah claimed the Falaq-1 attack targeting Maale Golani at 1229 ET, roughly one hour after the first reports of a rocket impact at Majdal Shams.[3] Hezbollah attack claims frequently lag behind reports of the actual attack. Hezbollah denied that it conducted the attack on Majdal Shams and falsely claimed that the attack was the result of an Israeli Tamir Iron Dome interceptor that hit Majdal Shams.[4] The IDF found debris of an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket in Majdal Shams, and the IDF reported that only Hezbollah uses the Falaq-1.[5] The IDF did not fire an Iron Dome interceptor at the rocket.[6] Other militias operating in southern Lebanon—such as Hamas elements or Jama’a al Islamiyah—could have acquired and used a Falaq-1, but CTP-ISW has not previously observed these militias using the Falaq-1.

This attack is the consequence of a long, Hezbollah-initiated campaign targeting both civilian areas and military sites in northern Israel. Hezbollah initiated the war in the north on October 8, when it began its attack campaign targeting northern Israel. This campaign caused Israel to evacuate tens of thousands of civilians from their homes in northern Israel.[7] Hezbollah has targeted both civilian and military sites throughout the war. Hezbollah’s decision in early 2024 to transition from less-sophisticated rocket and anti-tank guided missile systems to more advanced and deadly rocket (including the Falaq-1), one-way attack drone, and anti-tank guided missile systems also increased the risk that a Hezbollah attack would cause significant Israeli casualties, either intentionally or due to a miscalculation.[8]  

Israeli political officials are currently weighing their response to this attack amid mounting domestic pressure to address Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel. Israeli military and political officials vowed to respond “harshly” to Hezbollah’s attack on Majdal Shams.[9] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to Tel Aviv from the United States to convene the Security Cabinet on July 28.[10] Israeli law requires the approval of the Security Cabinet to discuss major military offensive operations. Two unspecified security sources told Reuters that Hezbollah is on “high alert” and had cleared out some key sites in both Lebanon's south and the eastern Bekaa Valley anticipating a retaliatory Israeli attack.[11] Domestic pressure on the Israeli government has been increasing for months, with some senior government officials beginning to call for action against Hezbollah even before the July 27 attack.[12] The Israeli education minister announced on July 23 that northern Israeli schools would not open for the new school year. The minister called on Netanyahu to ”act now, strongly, against the state of Lebanon.”[13]

Israeli artillery shelled the alleged launch site for the Majdal Shams attack in Shebaa village with artillery fire on July 27.[14] The IDF Air Force separately conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah sites in at least seven locations near Tyre, in the Bekaa Valley, and in southern Lebanon on July 27.[15] These airstrikes are consistent with Israel’s daily targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon and are not the full Israeli response to the Majdal Shams attack.  

An unspecified senior Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada official claimed on July 28 that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee do not know which militia conducted the recent attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.[16] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have conducted four attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria since July 16.[17] The senior militia official claimed that Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada is “committed to calm” and that the militia that conducted the recent attacks targeting US forces probably operated “individually.”[18] A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, al Thawriyyun, claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq and the Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria on July 25.[19] Al Thawriyyun asserted that it is connected to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that claimed over 160 attacks target US forces between October 2023 and February 2024.[20] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq suspended attacks targeting US forces following a one-way drone attack that killed three US personnel in northeastern Jordan in late January 2024.[21]

Key Takeaways:

• Rocket Attack in Northern Israel: Hezbollah likely conducted the July 27 rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children and “youths” in Majdal Shams, northern Israel. This attack is the consequence of a long, Hezbollah-initiated campaign targeting both civilian areas and military sites in northern Israel. Hezbollah began using more advanced systems to attack northern Israel in January, which increased the risk that a Hezbollah attack would cause significant casualties, either intentionally or due to a miscalculation.
• Israeli Response to the Rocket Attack: Israeli political officials are currently weighing their response to this attack amid mounting domestic pressure to address Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel. Israeli military and political officials vowed to respond “harshly” to Hezbollah’s attack on Majdal Shams.
• Lebanon: Israeli artillery shelled the alleged launch site for the Majdal Shams attack in Shebaa village on July 27.
• Gaza Strip: The IDF issued evacuation orders for areas of Bureij and Shuhada in the central Gaza Strip on July 28.
• Iraq and Syria: An unspecified senior Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada official claimed on July 28 that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee do not know which militia conducted the recent attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.

Iran Update, July 27, 2024

Iranian-backed militias continued attacks on US forces in Syria on July 26, likely as part of a new attack campaign aimed at expelling US forces from Iraq and Syria. Local Syrian sources and international journalists reported that Iranian-backed militants fired at least two rockets targeting US forces at Conoco Mission Support Site in eastern Syria.[i] Unspecified US officials confirmed to a BBC journalist that US forces struck the rocket launch site shortly after the attack.[ii] The US Defense Department has not publicly confirmed this report.  A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia “al Thawriyyun” previously claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on July 25.[iii] One of those rocket attacks targeted Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria.[iv] Al Thawriyyun said that their attacks on US forces would persist and become more advanced until US forces withdraw from Iraq.[v] CTP-ISW noted on July 17 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.[vi] This is the fifth attack on US forces in Iraq and Syria since late June 2024.[vii] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq paused its attack campaign in February 2024 but militias within the coalition recently threatened to resume their attacks against US forces.[viii]

The IDF assessed that Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a rocket attack that killed at least ten Israeli children and “youths” and wounded 30 other Israeli civilians in Majdal Shams, northern Israel, on July 27.[ix] The IDF assessed that Hezbollah conducted the attack using at least 40 projectiles in three separate barrages.[x] Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack.[xi]  The rockets struck a soccer field in Majdal Shams, which is a Druze village in northern Israel.[xii]  Israeli media reported that many the wounded civilians are children.[xiii] Israeli media reported that this attack caused the most civilian casualties in northern Israel since October 2023.[xiv] The IDF's preliminary investigation concluded that while there was a rocket alert, the warning was too short.[xv] The attack followed an IDF attack that killed four Hezbollah fighters in Kfar Kila, Lebanon on July 27.[xvi] Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah previously threatened to strike new locations inside Israel in a televised speech on July 27.[xvii] Nasrallah stated that Hezbollah would hit new Israeli targets if Israel “continues to target civilians” in Lebanon. Hezbollah—not Israel—initiated the war on the northern border by conducting near daily attacks into northern Israel beginning on October 8.

Israel submitted an updated ceasefire proposal to international mediators on July 27. A senior Israeli official and two knowledgeable sources told an Israeli journalist that Israeli gave US officials its updated proposal to deliver to Hamas.[xviii] Hamas has not confirmed receipt of the proposal at the time of this writing. Israel’s proposal is expected to include a vetting mechanism to facilitate the return of displaced Palestinians to the northern Gaza Strip.[xix] An Israeli official said that the proposal also changes the areas that the IDF would move to within the Gaza Strip as part of withdrawals from certain areas of the Strip during the first phase of the proposal.[xx] The proposal also reportedly enables Israeli forces to remain along the Philadelphi Corridor on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt during the first phase of the deal.[xxi] Senior US, Egyptian, and Qatari officials are expected to meet in Rome on July 28 to discuss the updated proposal.[xxii] Lebanese Hezbollah media cited a senior Palestinian source who said that Hamas would refuse to consider any new proposals. [xxiii]

Key Takeaways:

• Iraq and Syria: Iranian-backed militias continued attacks on US forces in Syria on July 26, likely as part of a new attack campaign aimed at expelling US forces from Iraq and Syria.
• Lebanon: The IDF assessed that Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a rocket attack that killed at least ten Israeli children and “youths” and wounded 30 other Israeli civilians in Majdal Shams, northern Israel, on July 27.
• Ceasefire Negotiations: Israel submitted an updated ceasefire proposal to international mediators on July 27.

Iran Update, July 26, 2024

A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on July 25. The al Thawriyyun group took responsibility for attacking Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq and Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria.[1] US and Iraqi officials confirmed that the attack targeting Ain al Asad Airbase caused no damage.[2] CTP-ISW reported this rocket attack on July 25.[3] A BBC journalist said that unspecified officials confirmed that rockets targeted Conoco Mission Support Site but did not reach the base.[4] CTP-ISW noted on July 17 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.[5]

The al Thawriyyun group asserted that it is connected to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that has mounted attack campaigns against US forces and Israel since October 2023.[6] The militia created a Telegram channel the day of the attacks to claim responsibility for them.[7] Al Thawriyyun said that their attacks on US forces would persist and become more advanced until US forces withdraw from Iraq.[8] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq paused its attack campaign in February 2024 but militias within the coalition recently threatened to resume their attacks against US forces.[9] The Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened on or before June 5 to attack US forces in Iraq if the Iraqi prime minister failed to set a date for US troop withdrawal within 40 days, and the militias’ coordinating body also threatened to resume attacks on June 19.[10]

Former US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida on July 26.[11] They discussed ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas.[12] Trump called for the immediate release of Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu said that Israel plans to send negotiators to Rome in the coming days. Netanyahu previously met with US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris separately in Washington, DC on July 25.[13]

An anonymous Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force official told Kuwaiti media that Iran has delivered “electromagnetic bombs” to Lebanese Hezbollah.[14] It is unclear whether the report is accurate, but the claim is meant to deter Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon. The Quds Force official told al Jarida that the munitions given to Hezbollah carry “explosive electromagnetic warheads” that could disable Israeli communication systems, electricity grids, and radars.[15] The Quds Force official also stated that Iran has tested “dozens” of such weapons through other members of the Axis of Resistance to create a database of weapons that could defeat Israeli air defenses.[16] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran, and its Axis of Resistance are conducting an information operation through Western and international media to deter Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon.[17] The IRGC has previously used al Jarida to message to external audiences, including about arms transfers to Hezbollah.[18]

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian gave an interview to the official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on July 25, in which Pezeshkian discussed regime responsibility in addressing cultural and economic issues.[19] Pezeshkian said that the regime is responsible for defining the national culture and that “we must start with ourselves“ to fix cultural challenges. Pezeshkian also emphasized the need for the regime to rely on experts and technocrats to solve economic shortcomings. Pezeshkian also stressed the importance of relying on evidence and science to inform policy. The framing that Pezeshkian presented in his interview diverged notably from the attitudes that former President Ebrahim Raisi expressed in office. Raisi often used a less sympathetic tone in describing the cultural divide between the regime and its people. Raisi also populated his administration with deeply ideological hardliners who sometimes lacked the appropriate credentials for their offices. That Khamenei’s office published the interview with Pezeshkian indicates that Khamenei has endorsed the approach that Pezeshkian described.

Pezeshkian also emphasized in the interview his subordination to and close alignment with Khamenei, highlighting Pezeshkian’s limited ability to make fundamental changes to regime policy without Khamenei’s backing.[20] Pezeshkian stated that he is working in close coordination and consultation with Khamenei in preparing his cabinet nominations for Parliament.[21] This statement is consistent with Pezeshkian’s repeated emphasis in recent months about his subordination to Khamenei.[22]

Key Takeaways:

• Iraq: A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria. CTP-ISW previously reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attacks targeting US forces.
• Israel: Former US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida. They discussed the ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
• Lebanon: An anonymous IRGC Quds Force official claimed that Iran gave electromagnetic munitions to Lebanese Hezbollah. This claim is part of a larger effort by Iran and its Axis of Resistance to deter a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon.
• Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian gave an interview to the official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian emphasized regime responsibility in addressing cultural and economic issues while reiterating his subordination to Khamenei.

Iran Update, July 25, 2024

US President Joe Biden met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 25.[1] Biden and Netanyahu discussed Biden’s “ironclad commitment” to Israeli security, as well as “developments in Gaza, including efforts to reach a ceasefire.” An unspecified US official said that the administration believes that the deal “is in the closing stages.”

US Vice President Kamala Harris said that she told Netanyahu that it is “time for this war to end” and that “it is time to get this [ceasefire] deal done.”[2] Harris met with Netanyahu on July 25 following Netanyahu’s meeting with Joe Biden. Harris added that the war must “end in a way that ensures Israel’s security.” Harris called her conversation with Netanyahu ”frank and constructive,” and added that she will continue to support Israel against Iran and its partners. US officials emphasized that Harris has been involved in “every call“ with Netanyahu since October 7.[3]

US, Israeli, and Arab officials are reportedly considering former Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan as an interim leader of Palestinian security forces in the post-war Gaza Strip. Dahlan is a former Fatah official who was a close advisor to former Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasser Arafat. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 25 that under the plan, Dahlan would oversee an interim security force of 2,500 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip after Israeli troops withdraw, citing Arab officials.[4] The United States, Israel, and Egypt would vet the Palestinian personnel, who would work in coordination with unspecified international forces and even private Western security firms. The Palestinian security force would not be directly affiliated with the PA. International mediators have recently considered multiple alternative proposals that have recommended sending non-Israeli, non-Hamas, and UAE-supported security forces to maintain security in the Gaza Strip.[5] The Arab officials also said that the Palestinian force could assist with the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip if it operates successfully.

Dahlan could be a “palatable figure” to Israel, the United States, Gulf states, and potentially Hamas who may be capable of leading post-war Palestinian security forces.[6] Dahlan organized Fatah-led PA forces against Hamas’ 2007 takeover in the Gaza Strip.[7] Hamas destroyed the Fatah-led PA forces in the Gaza Strip during that takeover. Dahlan left the Palestinian territories for the UAE after Fatah party leadership expelled him in 2011.[8] Dahlan maintains an active political party in the West Bank and he has connections to armed Palestinian networks on the ground, however.[9] Dahlan has publicly argued in recent months that a lasting solution requires a new Palestinian leader within a transitional government until parliamentary elections can be held.[10] Dahlan stated that this cannot be reached without Hamas’ consent.[11] Notably, Hamas has reportedly indicated to meditators in recent weeks that it has “softened” its hostility towards Dahlan and could accept him as an interim security leader.[12] Dahlan has repeatedly met with top Hamas officials since the beginning of the war, initially to coordinate aid distribution.[13] Arab and Hamas officials said that Dahlan has presented himself in recent conversations with Hamas as someone who could oversee aid distribution within a new Palestinian system in Gaza.[14]

The proposed 2,500-strong Palestinian security force is probably insufficient to counter Hamas’ future attempts to reassert control in the Gaza Strip, regardless of who leads the force. Hamas would need to agree to Dahlan or any other leader unless Hamas is militarily defeated and unable to resist a transitional force. Failing to defeat Hamas militarily will risk a resumption of de-facto or de-jure Hamas control in the Gaza Strip. Hamas would almost certainly act to suppress the authority of any non-Hamas security force attempting to assume Hamas’ former security responsibilities in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has a long history of violently countering attempts from other Palestinian factions to assert authority in the Gaza Strip, including defeating Dahlan’s PA forces in the Gaza Strip in 2007.[15] A 2,500-strong interim security force would likely be insufficient to challenge Hamas’ long-standing monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip. Dahlan, who is currently based in the UAE, has not expressed explicit public interest in assuming the position.[16] Hamas’ reported acceptance of Dahlan also indicates that Hamas assesses it could maintain significant influence under his rule.

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) head Mohammad Eslami claimed that Iran had exported nuclear materials and expertise to various unspecified countries in an interview with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website on July 22.[17] Eslami stated that Iranian nuclear experts had “exported services” to unnamed countries during an unspecified timeframe. Eslami added that an AEOI technical group had travelled to an unspecified Latin American country within the past four months for “consultations” and that Iran was “continuously receiving” similar requests from other countries. Eslami also stated that Iran had exported domestically-produced heavy water—a substance that serves as a moderator and coolant in nuclear reactors—without providing further details. Eslami‘s statements focused on the development and export of Iranian pharmaceutical nuclear capabilities. Khamenei publicly called on the AEOI in June 2023 to commercialize nuclear products—specifically heavy water and nuclear isotopes—and services.[18] Khamenei.ir published Eslami’s interview on a new page titled “A Strong Iran with an Advanced Nuclear Industry,” underscoring the extent to which the supreme leader seeks to promote Iranian indigenous nuclear capabilities.[19]

It is unclear to what extent Iran has previously provided nuclear expertise to other actors, although Iranian officials have previously expressed their readiness to do so. Eslami stressed Iran’s willingness to help Saudi Arabia develop its nuclear program in May 2024.[20] Iran sold heavy water to the US in 2016 as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.[21] Iranian officials have since claimed that the US purchased and requested the purchase of Iranian heavy water in recent years.[22] One Iranian official stated that Iran discussed heavy waters sales with Russia in 2016, although it is unclear if these discussions resulted in the purchase of such materials.[23]

Key Takeaways:

• Netanyahu Visits Washington, DC: US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 25. Harris told Netanyahu that it is “time for this war to end” and that “it is time to get this [ceasefire] deal done.
• Gaza Strip: US, Israeli, and Arab officials are reportedly considering former Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan, who could be palatable to all parties, as an interim leader of Palestinian security forces in the post-war Gaza Strip. The proposed 2,500-strong Palestinian security force is probably insufficient to counter Hamas’ future attempts to reassert control in the Gaza Strip, regardless of who leads the force. Hamas would need to agree to Dahlan or any other leader unless it is militarily defeated and unable to resist that force. Failing to defeat Hamas militarily will risk a resumption of de-facto or de-jure Hamas control in the Gaza Strip.
• Iraq: Two unspecified security officials cited by Reuters reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched four rockets at Ain al Asad Airbase, Anbar, on July 25.
• Iran: Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) head Mohammad Eslami claimed that Iran had exported nuclear materials and expertise to various unspecified countries in an interview with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website on July 22.

Iran Update, July 24, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the US Congress on July 24.[1] Netanyahu described his vision for “a demilitarized and deradicalized” post-war Gaza Strip but did not offer details about how to achieve this vision.[2] Netanyahu further said that Israeli would need to ”retain overriding security control” over the Gaza Strip for the ”foreseeable future” to prevent the resurgence of Hamas.[3] Netanyahu added that the Gaza Strip ”should have a civilian administration run by Palestinians.”[4] He did not directly comment on the ongoing ceasefire negotiations but said that the war would end “tomorrow“ if Hamas surrenders, disarms, and returns all the hostages.[5] He said that, if Hamas does not, Israel will fight until Hamas is destroyed militarily, its rule of the Gaza Strip is ended, and Israel frees all the hostages.[6] Netanyahu said that he prefers a diplomatic resolution that returns residents of northern Israel to their homes but that Israel “will do whatever it must do to restore security,” in reference to expectations that Israel may conduct a major military operation into southern Lebanon against Lebanese Hezbollah.[7] Netanyahu also proposed creating a new security alliance of regional Arab states that he termed the ”Abraham Alliance” to balance against Iran and the Axis of Resistance.[8] Netanyahu said that the US-assembled coalition that successfully defended Israel from the April 13 large-scale Iranian drone and missile attack shows the potential of such an alliance.[9]

Egypt may agree to a long-term Israeli presence along the Egypt-Gaza Strip border, according to an anonymous Israeli official.[10] Egypt and Israel have not yet reached an agreement on control of the Philadelphi Corridor, however, which separates Egypt from the Gaza Strip. Cairo has vocally opposed in recent months any Israeli presence along the Philadelphi Corridor.[11] Israeli forces took control of the corridor in May 2024 and have since consolidated their position by creating 800-meter buffer zone.[12]The anonymous Israeli official suggested that recent discussions between Egypt and Israel have made progress toward a long-term arrangement that allows the IDF to remain around the Philadelphi Corridor.

An enduring IDF presence along the Philadelphi Corridor would complicate ongoing ceasefire negotiations but provides a better guarantee against Hamas rearming. Hamas has demanded repeatedly that Israeli forces withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor in a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal.[13] But Israeli officials consider controlling the Philadelphi Corridor as necessary to prevent Hamas from importing military materials into the Gaza Strip.[14] Hamas could use such materials to support its larger effort to rebuild its weapons production capacity and reconstitute its forces.[15] The IDF has called the corridor Hamas’ "lifeline” that Hamas needs to replenish its military resources, such as explosive materials, supplies, and weapons.[16]

The discussions about a lasting Israeli presence along the Philadelphi Corridor are part of a larger series of conversations about how to manage the corridor in the long term. The United States, Egypt, and Israel have reportedly considered alternative smuggling interdiction methods, such as constructing a high-tech and deep-buried border fence.[17] Israel also reportedly considered involving the United Nations and Gazans who are not connected to Hamas in managing parts of the border, such as the Rafah border crossing.[18] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he would not consider an IDF withdrawal from the corridor on July 12, tabling these alternatives to long-term Israeli control of the corridor.[19]

Lebanese Hezbollah published drone footage of an Israeli airbase in northern Israel on July 24 as part of an effort to deter Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon.[20] The drone footage showed the IDF Ramat David airbase, which is about 50 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border. The footage included purported details of the airbase, such as the locations of air defenses, aircraft shelters, and fuel storage units.[21] This video marks the third time in recent months that Hezbollah has published drone footage of critical Israeli sites.[22] These videos are meant to demonstrate Hezbollah’s ability to reach these sites while terrorizing Israeli civilians and military personnel. The videos could also communicate information about critical Israeli targets to other members of the Axis of Resistance.

The United States and Iraq continued discussing their bilateral security partnership, which is in conflict with Iranian-backed efforts to expel US forces from Iraq. US and Iraqi delegations concluded their two-day Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue in Washington, DC, on July 23.[23] The dialogue covered ending the International Coalition’s mission in Iraq and transitioning the US presence in Iraq to part of a bilateral security relationship.[24] US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that the United States will continue to develop and strengthen its security partnership with Iraq.[25] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have conducted around over 160 attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria since the Israel-Hamas war began in order to compel Washington to withdraw its troops.[26] The militias paused attacks in February 2024 but announced on July 19 that they would resume attacks since Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani had failed to set a timeline for the complete withdrawal of US forces.[27]

Key Takeaways:

• Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the US Congress to discuss the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and international efforts to counter Iran and its Axis of Resistance.
• Gaza Strip: Egypt may agree to a long-term Israeli presence along the Egypt-Gaza Strip border, according to an anonymous Israeli official.
• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah published drone footage of an IDF airbase in northern Israel as part of an effort to deter Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon.
• Iraq: The United States and Iraq continued discussing their bilateral security partnership, which is in conflict with Iranian-backed efforts to expel US forces from Iraq.

Iran Update, July 23, 2024

Hamas, Fatah and other unspecified Palestinian political factions agreed on a vision for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip on July 23 during “intra-Palestinian reconciliation” talks in Beijing.[1] The factions signed a joint declaration setting out their intention to form “a temporary national unity government” responsible for governing the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.[2] The agreement stipulates that a government partly influenced by Hamas would rule the Gaza Strip and West Bank until elections could be held at an unspecified future date.[3] The declaration reportedly does not address what party maintains security control over the Gaza Strip, and Hamas has been adamant it will keep its military wing.[4] Hamas, Fatah, and China have not disclosed the full text of the declaration at the time of this writing. Senior Hamas official Hossam Badran claimed that unity government would supervise the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, manage the affairs of the Palestinian people, and provide a “formidable barrier” against regional and international intervention in the governance of the Gaza Strip.[5] Hamas and Fatah have previously signed a series of unimplemented reconciliation agreements.[6] The former Palestinian Authority prime minister and top Fatah official Mohammad Shtayyeh said that Hamas and Fatah must continue discussions to advance the declaration’s framework.[7] CTP-ISW will publish more in-depth analysis and coverage of this development as more details of the agreement become available.

The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are separately advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with the Beijing meeting’s vision.[8] Israeli sources said that Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah Bin Zayed organized a meeting with top US and Israeli officials, including Israeli defense officials responsible for “day-after plans” for the Gaza Strip, on July 18.[9] Abdullah Bin Zayed’s special envoy to the United Nations published a proposal for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip shortly before the meeting and indicated that the UAE could send armed forces to support a multinational “stabilization” mission in the Gaza Strip.[10] The UAE specified that it would only send forces if it was invited by the Palestinian Authority and the United States held a leadership role in the post-war Gaza Strip.[11] Part of the UAE’s plan involves appointing a reformed Palestinian Authority led by an independent prime minister to govern the post-war Gaza Strip.[12] The Palestinian Authority remains most influenced by Fatah, which just signed a unity government declaration with Hamas. The UAE is pushing for non-Fatah officials, such as former Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad, to head the government, however.[13]

The US-Israeli-UAE plan could move towards accomplishing Israeli war aims by protecting nascent, non-Hamas alternatives in the Gaza Strip. The non-Israeli, non-Hamas, and UAE-supported security forces described in this plan could successfully maintain security in the Gaza Strip if Hamas were militarily defeated. This force or one with similar features is necessary to accomplish Israeli war aims because it would be able to suppress Hamas military remnants and begin the process of transitioning to a non-Hamas authority. This transition would take a considerable amount of time.  This plan stands in stark contrast with the Beijing proposal, which would probably result in Hamas retaining at minimum a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip. A monopoly on violence would give Hamas excessive influence over governance of the Gaza Strip even if under a nominally muti-party structure. CTP-ISW previously assessed Hamas would similarly take over a technocratic government if the group retains a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip.[14] The Beijing proposal, if successful, would result in an Israeli defeat because it would result in at least de-facto—if not de jure—Hamas control in the Gaza Strip. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on July 19 that a ceasefire agreement without an interim governance plan for the Gaza Strip would create a void that is filed by Hamas resurgence, Israeli military presence, or “chaos.”[15]

Four unspecified Iraqi sources cited by Reuters on July 22 claimed that an Iraqi delegation in Washington, DC, has requested the United States begin withdrawing its forces from Iraq starting in September 2024.[16] The unspecified Iraqi sources claimed that the delegation has asked the coalition to begin withdrawing its forces in September 2024 in order to end the International Coalition’s mission in Iraq by September 2025. US and Iraqi officials began talks on July 22 in Washington, DC, to continue negotiations over the end of the International Coalitions mission in Iraq.[17] The United States and Iraq are evaluating a timeline to end the International Coalition’s mission in Iraq based on threats posed by ISIS in Iraq and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) capabilities to conduct independent counter-ISIS operations.

CTP-ISW continues to assess that the United States and its partners in Iraq and Syria have successfully contained but not defeated ISIS and that a US withdrawal from Syria would very likely cause a rapid ISIS resurgence there within 12 to 24 months that would then spill into Iraq.[18] Iraqi security forces still face significant deficiencies in fire support, intelligence, and logistics that would impede their ability to eliminate ISIS and other domestic threats alone.[19] The US presence in Iraq logistically sustains the presence in Syria.[20] This is consistent with CENTCOM’s previous and current reporting about the state of ISIS. US Central Command commander Gen. Michael Kurilla said in March 2024 that a US withdrawal from Iraq before the Iraqi Security Forces could successfully ”stand on their own” would ”all but guarantee” ISIS’s return.[21] Kurilla’s statements echo his 2023 Congressional Testimony, when he reported that he assessed ISIS would reconstitute within 12 to 24 months without a US presence in Iraq and Syria.[22] CENTCOM reported on July 16 that ISIS attacks in Iraq and Syria are on track to double from 2023 to over 153 attacks in 2024.[23] CENTCOM noted that the rate of attacks suggests that ISIS is attempting to reconstitute itself. CENTCOM’s report is consistent with CTP-ISW assessment that the United States and its partners in Syria have successfully contained but not defeated ISIS.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave a speech to Parliament in which he implicitly called on Parliament not to obstruct potential efforts by President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian to resume nuclear negotiations with the West. Khamenei simultaneously encouraged Parliament to work to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions.[24] Khamenei voiced support for both “lifting and neutralizing” western sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program while impressing upon Parliament the importance of unity within government and acting with a “united voice” with President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian voiced support for increased international engagement with Western actors and endorsed a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) throughout his campaign.[25] Iran’s Parliament will not play a direct role in negotiations, though it is responsible for approving any agreement, and Iran’s recently-elected Parliament is dominated by hardline politicians who have obstructed nuclear negotiations in the past.[26] Khamenei implicitly called on hardliners to allow Pezeshkian to pursue nuclear talks by encouraging unity, but his comment about ”neutralizing” sanctions simultaneously encourages hardliners to work to mitigate the effects of sanctions. Neutralizing and mitigating the effect of sanctions has been a long-held foreign policy objective for Iran. This effort includes improving relations with non-Western countries and improving Iran’s own economic self-reliance.[27]

Khamenei also defended the Strategic Action Plan to Lift Sanctions and Protect Iranian Nation’s Interests, but his statements on the Strategic Action Plan probably sought to placate hardliners in parliament. Khamenei said that passing the Strategic Action Law “was the right thing to do.“[28] This 2020 legislation mandated that Iran increase uranium enrichment and reduce IAEA inspections if the United States did not lift sanctions.[29]

The pursuit of nuclear negotiations to lift sanctions caused by the nuclear program and an effort to mitigate the effects of sanctions in general are not mutually exclusive.  Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei previously urged Raisi administration officials to counter the impact of economic sanctions and simultaneously expressed approval of sanctions-lifting nuclear negotiations.[30] It does not necessarily follow that a new nuclear deal would cause the United States and its partners to lift all of the sanctions they have imposed on Iran, such as sanctions tied to Iran’s drone and missile programs.[31]

The Houthis appear to have successfully coerced Saudi Arabia into stopping a Yemeni government effort to cut Houthi access to the international finance system. The Central Bank of Yemen based in Aden (CBY-Aden) had been considering a plan in early July to remove several banks from the SWIFT system.[32] CBY-Aden also suspended at least 26 money exchange companies from operating in government-controlled Yemen between late June and early July.[33] Banning the Houthis from SWIFT would disrupt the ability for these banks to send and receive money from outside Houthi-controlled areas, which could severely damage the economy in Houthi-controlled areas.[34]

The Houthis responded by threatening Saudi Arabia as part of an effort to pressure Riyadh to reverse the Yemeni government’s decision. The Yemeni government is based in Riyadh, and Saudi Arabia can exert significant amounts of pressure on the Yemeni government to secure Yemeni agreement in negotiations. The Houthis threatened to target Saudi Arabia on July 8, one week after plans to remove several banks in Houthi-controlled areas from the SWIFT system leaked.[35] The Houthis published drone footage of airports and ports in Saudi Arabia, and the Houthi leader threatened that ”if [Saudi Arabia] wants good for [itself], stability [for itself] and [its] economy,” Saudi Arabia would need to stop conspiring against Yemen and cease cooperation with the United States.[36]

Saudi Arabia likely pressured the Yemeni government to cancel its decisions to prevent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The United Nations Special Envoy for Yemen noted that Saudi Arabia played a “significant role” in securing a Houthi-Yemeni government agreement to “cancel all recent decisions and procedures against banks” on July 23, suggesting that Saudi Arabia pressured the Yemeni government into reversing its decisions in the banking sector.[37] Saudi Arabia has previously undermined its Yemeni allies’ position by either negotiating with the Houthis without the Yemeni government or by pressuring the Yemeni government to agree to disadvantageous deals with the Houthis.[38] The CBY-Aden governor resigned after the agreement was signed.[39]

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are separately advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with a separate Chinese-mediated proposal for a unity government between Hamas and Fatah. The US-Israeli-UAE plan could move towards accomplishing Israeli war aims by protecting nascent, non-Hamas alternatives in the Gaza Strip. The Beijing proposal would amount to an Israeli defeat, if implemented.
• Iraq: Four unspecified Iraqi sources cited by Reuters on July 22 claimed that an Iraqi delegation in Washington, DC, has requested the United States begin withdrawing its forces from Iraq starting in September 2024. CTP-ISW continues to assess that the United States and its partners in Iraq and Syria have successfully contained but not defeated ISIS and that a US withdrawal from Syria would very likely cause a rapid ISIS resurgence there within 12 to 24 months that would then spill into Iraq.
• Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave a speech to Parliament in which he implicitly called on Parliament not to obstruct potential efforts by President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian to resume nuclear negotiations with the West. Khamenei simultaneously encouraged Parliament to work to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions. The pursuit of nuclear negotiations to lift sanctions caused by the nuclear program and an effort to mitigate the effects of sanctions in general are not mutually exclusive.
• Houthi Attacks on Israel: Unspecified military sources in Sanaa told Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar on July 23 that the Houthis will target new civilian sites in Israel, which is consistent with the Houthi leader’s statements on July 21.
• Houthi Threats Against Saudi Arabia: The Houthis appear to have successfully coerced Saudi Arabia into stopping a Yemeni government effort to cut Houthi access to the international finance system. Saudi Arabia likely pressured the Yemeni government to cancel its decisions to prevent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah may be expanding the locations it targets in northern Israel. This expansion follows threats by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to expand the group’s targets on July 17.

Iran Update, July 22, 2024

The modified Houthi drone that struck Tel Aviv flew at least 2,600 kilometers, demonstrating how Iran and its partners have expanded the geographic range of their weapon systems to target the eastern Mediterranean and other areas.[i] The modified Sammad-3 drone traveled east-to-west from Yemen, crossing into Eritrea before turning north and flying through Sudan and Egypt and then turning east to target Tel Aviv from the west. A standard Sammad-3 can travel 1,500 kilometers. Israeli air defense operations failed to identify the drone as a threat because it traveled in civilian flight corridors and dropped off and on the Israeli radar system. The Houthi attack approached Israeli air space at the same time as a second drone that came from Iraq. The IDF concluded that there was no operational coordination between the Houthis and the Iranian-backed Iraqi militia. The Iraqi drone arrived near Israel at the same time, but it was not launched simultaneously, given the much shorter flight time from Yemen.[ii]

Key Takeaways:

• Yemen: The modified Houthi drone that struck Tel Aviv flew at least 2,600 kilometers, demonstrating how Iran and its partners have expanded the geographic range of their weapon systems to target the eastern Mediterranean and other areas.
• Iraq: US and Iraqi officials began talks on July 22 in Washington, DC, to continue negotiations over the end of the International Coalition’s mission in Iraq.
• Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 98th Division launched a new clearing operation in Khan Younis on July 22 to disrupt Hamas’ efforts to reconstitute in the governorate.
• West Bank: The Shin Bet said on July 22 that it uncovered a plot by Palestinian fighters to kidnap IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians in the West Bank.
• Lebanon: A Wall Street Journal report on July 22 highlighted challenges that Israel faces intercepting drones targeting northern Israel.

Iran Update, July 21, 2024

The IDF reported that its airstrikes targeting Hudaydah, Yemen, on July 20 sought to disrupt the Iranian weapons supply route to the Houthis and damage dual-use infrastructure.[i] The IDF said that it intended to disrupt an Iranian weapons supply route to the Houthis and a critical source of Houthi financing by targeting dual-use energy infrastructure and the port’s cargo unloading capabilities.[ii] The IDF estimated that 70% of goods that enter the port of Hudaydah reach the Houthis.[iii] Israeli F15s and F35s struck 20 fuel depots, large container cranes used to unload goods from ships, and unspecified energy infrastructure.[iv] The strikes set fire to the port and the fire is expected to continue burning for several days.[v] Houthi-affiliated media reported that 84 people were wounded in the airstrikes.[vi] An Israeli military correspondent reported that the IDF assessed that the port of Hudaydah’s ability to receive goods has been “completely shut down” by the airstrikes.[vii]  The IDF stated that this operation was the longest-range operation conducted by the IDF Air Force.[viii] The IDF said that the Houthis did not attempt to shoot missiles at incoming Israeli aircraft.[ix]

A senior security official told an Israeli Army Radio correspondent that Israel needs to “project power towards the entire region” after the Houthi drone hit Tel Aviv.[x] A senior security official told an Israeli Army Radio correspondent that the IDF may need to conduct further attacks in Yemen in the near future.[xi] The IDF conducted the July 20 airstrikes in retaliation for the July 18 Houthi drone attack that targeted Tel Aviv and killed one Israeli citizen, but the IDF added that the airstrikes were also a response to “hundreds of [Houthi] aerial threats” targeting Israel in recent months.[xii] US and coalition airstrikes have previously targeted military sites and targets within Houthi-controlled Yemen.[xiii] An Israeli military correspondent noted that Hudaydah port is also used to import humanitarian aid into Yemen.[xiv] The July 20 airstrike was the first Israeli strike targeting the Houthis.

Houthi supreme leader Abdulmalik al Houthi announced the start of the fifth phase of Houthi escalations against Israel known as “Operation Jaffa” in a speech on July 21.[xv] Abdulmalik’s speech follows the IDF‘s retaliatory strike on the port of Hudaydah, Yemen on July 20. Abdulmalik claimed that Israelis are no longer safe in main population centers of Israel, including Tel Aviv. Abdulmalik added that Israel will not re-establish deterrence vis-a-vis the Houthis by launching attacks on Yemen. Abdulmalik denied that the “Jaffa” drone that the Houthis used in its July 18 attack on Tel Aviv was foreign-made and referred to it as “purely“ Yemeni made.[xvi] The Jaffa drone, however, appears to be a modified variant of the Iranian-designed Samad-3 drone.[xvii] The Houthis presumably modified the Samad-3 in order to extend its range. Abdulmalik denied that the Houthis are conducting operations to benefit Iran and reiterated that the Houthis are operating in support of the Palestinians.[xviii] Houthi spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea separately said in a televised statement on July 20 that the Houthis will respond to this “blatant Israeli aggression and will not hesitate to strike the enemy’s vital targets.”[xix]

The IDF said it intercepted a surface-to-surface missile approaching Israeli territory from Yemen on July 21.[xx] The missile did not cross into Israeli territory.[xxi] The Houthis have not claimed the attack as of this writing.

Key Takeaways:

• Yemen: Houthi supreme leader Abdulmalik al Houthi announced the start of the fifth phase of Houthi escalations against Israel known as “Operation Jaffa,” claiming that Israelis are no longer safe in Israel’s main population centers.
• Gaza Strip: The IDF confirmed on July 21 that it killed a prominent Hamas fighter and the Gaza Brigade commander in the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades in an airstrike on an unspecified date.
• West Bank: Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 20.
• Lebanon: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 20.

Iran Update, July 20, 2024

The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting several Houthi military targets in al Hudaydah, Yemen, on July 20 in retaliation for the July 18 Houthi drone attack targeting Tel Aviv.[i] The IDF stated that it conducted the strike “in response to the hundreds of [Houthi] attacks carried out against the state of Israel in recent months.”[ii] A senior Israeli official told Axios that “the attack by the Houthis on Tel Aviv crossed all the red lines and that is why we responded to it after nine months of restraint.”[iii] The IDF airstrike marks the first time Israel has directly struck Yemen since the Israel-Hamas war began.[iv] A second unspecified Israeli official told Axios that Israel coordinated the attack with the United States and the international coalition that was established in December 2023 to counter Houthi attacks on international shipping.[v] Houthi media claimed that Israel targeted oil facilities and a power station in al Hudaydah.[vi]

Key Takeaways:

• Yemen: The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting several Houthi military targets in al Hudaydah, Yemen, on July 20 in retaliation for the July 18 Houthi drone attack targeting Tel Aviv.
• Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 99th Division operated in Gaza City over the past week and seized weapons in buildings surrounding UNWRA headquarters in Tal al Hawa.
• West Bank: Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least five locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 19.
• Lebanon: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least eight attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 19.

Iran Update, July 19, 2024

The Houthis launched a one-way attack drone into Tel Aviv for the first time on July 18, killing one individual and injuring at least another 10.[i] The Houthis appear to have flown the drone from Yemen to the Mediterranean Sea before turning it eastward into Tel Aviv.[ii] The drone then struck an apartment building about 100 meters from a US consulate.[iii] The Houthis have claimed responsibility for the attack and vowed to continue attacking deep into Israel.[iv] The Houthis said that the attack used their new “Yafa” drone, which appears to be a modified variant of the Iranian-designed Samad-3 drone.[v] The Yafa drone carried around 10 kilograms of explosives, according to an Israeli military correspondent.[vi]

The Houthis have conducted reconnaissance in force against the Israeli air defense network in recent months, which may have enabled the attack into Tel Aviv. The US Army defines reconnaissance in force as “a deliberate combat operation designed to discover or test the enemy’s strength, dispositions, and reactions or to obtain other information.”[vii] The Houthis have conducted regular drone and missile attacks targeting Israel since October 2023 to this end.[viii] These attacks could have provided the Houthis with the information needed to evade Israeli air defenses and strike targets in Tel Aviv. The almost daily Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi militia attacks targeting Israel could be meant to similarly gather information on Israeli air defenses and vulnerabilities.

The Houthi reconnaissance-in-force effort against Israeli air defenses reflects more broadly how Iran and its Axis of Resistance are learning from the Israel-Hamas war and accordingly developing new ways of fighting Israel. Senior Iranian military officials have discussed, for instance, how Hamas’ attack into Israel in October 2023 demonstrated how effective and valuable ground incursions into Israel could be.[ix] Iran and the Axis of Resistance have similarly experimented throughout the war with how to disrupt the Israeli economy by attacking critical Israeli infrastructure and international shipping.[x]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on July 19 that there are “increasing indications” that Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, is dead.[xi] The IDF targeted Deif and Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salameh on July 13 by dropping eight 2,000-pound precision munitions on their location in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF confirmed on July 14 that the strike killed Salameh. The IDF statement on July 19 confirmed that Mohammad Deif was “sitting next to” Salamah at the time of the strike.[xii] Hamas has denied that Deif is dead.[xiii] The IDF has in turn accused Hamas of trying to hide what happened to Deif.[xiv]

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on July 19 that Iran has reduced its nuclear breakout time to one to two weeks.[xv] Senior US officials have previously estimated that the Iranian nuclear breakout time was between 12 days and several months. Blinken’s statement comes as Iran has in recent months expanded its nuclear program and run computer simulations that could support the production of a nuclear weapon.[xvi] Senior Iranian officials have threatened repeatedly in recent months to pursue a nuclear weapon.[xvii]

The IDF conducted airstrikes into southern Lebanon on July 18, killing two officers from Lebanese Hezbollah’s Radwan unit.[xviii] The Radwan unit is Hezbollah’s elite commando force and is designed to conduct ground operations into Israel.[xix] The IDF airstrike killed two operations officers in the Radwan unit—Ali Jafar Matouq and Mohammad Hassan Mustafa. Both officers were involved in Hezbollah attacks into northern Israel.[xx] Matouq had reportedly replaced another Radwan officer, named Ali Ahmed Hussein, whom the IDF killed in April 2024.[xxi]

Hezbollah launched around 65 rockets into northern Israel in retaliation for the IDF killing the two Radwan officers.[xxii] The IDF intercepted some of the rockets, while the rest fell in open areas. Hezbollah claimed that it attacked three Israeli towns—Abirim, Neve Ziv, and Manot—for the first time as part of its retaliation.[xxiii] These attacks come after Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah threatened on July 17 to expand the geographic scope of attacks into northern Israel.[xxiv]

Key Takeaways:

• Yemen: The Houthis launched a one-way attack drone into Tel Aviv for the first time. The Houthis have conducted reconnaissance in force against Israeli air defenses in recent months, which may have enabled the attack.
• Gaza Strip: Israel announced that there are “increasing indications” that Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, is dead. The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting Deif in the southern Gaza Strip on July 13.
• Iran: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Iran has reduced its nuclear breakout time to one to two weeks. His comments come as Iran has in recent months expanded its nuclear program and run computer simulations that could help build a nuclear weapon.
• Lebanon: The IDF conducted airstrikes into southern Lebanon, killing two officers from Lebanese Hezbollah’s Radwan unit. The Radwan unit is Hezbollah’s elite commando force and is designed to conduct ground attacks into Israel.

Iran Update, July 18, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Members of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle told Western Media that Khamenei sought to promote the candidacy of Masoud Pezeshkian due to Pezeshkian’s ability to “foster unity.” 

• Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Air Force killed two Hamas commanders and one PIJ commander in the Gaza Strip on July 18. 

• Lebanon: The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes that killed one Hamas leader and one Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon on July 18. 

Iran Update, July 17, 2024

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched two one-way attack drones targeting US and coalition forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq on July 16, according to two Iraqi militia “officials” cited by Western media.[i] An anonymous US-led coalition source told Iraqi media that US air defense systems intercepted both drones.[ii] No group has officially claimed the attack at the time of writing, though an Iraq-focused analyst reported that a propaganda outlet affiliated with Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba claimed the attack on July 16.[iii] The Iranian-backed Iraqi militias previously threatened on or before June 5 to attack US forces in Iraq if the Iraqi prime minister failed to set a date for US troop withdrawal within 40 days, and the militias’ coordinating body also threatened to resume attacks on June 19.[iv] Ali al Fatlawi, a leader in Ansar Allah al Awfiya cited by Shafaq on July 17, claimed that the drone attack on Ain al Asad Airbase meant attacks against US forces had resumed.[v] Fatlawi did not specify which militia conducted the attack.[vi] Fatlawi is also a member of Asaib Ahl al Haq‘s parliamentary bloc.[vii] This attack marks the second Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks on a US base in Iraq since Iraqi militias suspended their attack campaign targeting US forces in February 2024.[viii]

An Iraqi delegation will travel to Washington, DC, on an unspecified date in July 2024 to continue negotiations over the end of the International Coalition’s mission in Iraq.[ix] Anonymous Iraqi political sources cited by Iraqi news outlet al Mada claimed that the Iraqi delegation will request the withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Iraq in three to four months. The same sources believe the United States will request a longer withdrawal timetable over three to five years. It is unclear how the anonymous Iraqi political sources have access to this information about US calculations. The United States and Iraq have been evaluating a timeline to withdraw International Coalition forces from Iraq following the January 2024 Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attack that killed three US servicemembers.[x]

Iran is still attempting to establish a permanent naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast following unsuccessful bilateral talks in March 2024.  The Wall Street Journal initially reported in March 2024 that Iran unsuccessfully tried to persuade Sudan to allow Iran to build a permanent naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea.[xi]  France-based, Sudanese outlet the Sudan Tribune reported on July 16 that the Sudanese Armed Forces rejected an Iranian proposal to permanently station an Iranian military vessel in Port Sudan in exchange for continued Iranian military aid to the Sudanese Armed Forces.[xii]  The July 16 report stated that Iran modified its initial proposal to instead request to establish a dual-use commercial and military port at Port Sudan. Iran’s initial proposal was to establish a solely military-use port, according to the Wall Street Journal.[xiii] The most recent proposal was also rejected by Sudanese officials, according to the Sudan Tribune report. The July 16 report likely indicates that Iran continued talks with Sudan after its initial talks as reported by the Wall Street Journal in March 2024.

Sudanese Armed Forces officials reportedly rejected these Iranian proposals due to concerns about potential backlash from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Western countries. Port Sudan is located approximately 200 miles west of Saudi Arabia—separated by the Red Sea.  A senior Sudanese intelligence adviser to the Sudanese Armed Forces stated in March 2024 that Sudan rejected the initial proposal to ”avoid alienating the US and Israel.”[xiv] Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all have direct access to the Red Sea, and an Iranian presence on the Red Sea would enable Iran to support longer-range naval operations to disrupt international shipping to any of these states, should Iran choose to do so.[xv] Sudan’s rejection of these proposals has not visibly affected Iran’s decision to supply drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces. Iran has supplied the Sudanese Armed Forces with drones, such as the Mohajer-6, to use against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in the ongoing Sudanese Civil War.[xvi] CTP-ISW previously assessed in March 2024 that Iran would use a naval base in Sudan to support out-of-area naval operations and attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.

Hamas likely retains the institutional knowledge and skilled commanders required to reconstitute despite the loss of several high-ranking Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip since October 2023. The IDF has killed three of five Hamas Brigade commanders in the Gaza Strip.[xvii]  The original Hamas Gaza City and Rafah Brigade commanders remain active in the Gaza Strip, and the IDF has conducted operations in both Rafah and Gaza City in recent weeks targeting forces under the command of the last two pre-October 7 brigade commanders.[xviii] Many of the senior Hamas military commanders whom Israel has killed in this war have decades of experience fighting Israel, and their loss will make reconstitution more challenging. Hamas made a deliberate choice to structure its military wing to survive Israeli military action by building a resilient military organization modeled on conventional militaries, however. Militaries design their command structures to ensure continuity of command during combat as units take casualties and leaders die. Killed Hamas commanders are almost certainly backfilled by their deputies and subordinates. These deputies and subordinates have survived nine months in a Darwinian combat environment, which can help lower-ranking commanders develop skills and teach them lessons they may not otherwise develop in peacetime when the stakes are much lower. These commanders will likely quickly assume and execute reconstitution tasks, such as reorganization, recruiting personnel, and replenishing stockpiles of military equipment and weapons across the Gaza Strip.[xix]

Hamas is deploying poorly trained new recruits in the Gaza Strip, probably due to its inability to effectively train new fighters amid Israeli military pressure. This inability to effectively train fighters will not persist if military pressure—from Israel or a different security force—does not continue. Hamas is recruiting new fighters to replace the reportedly 14,000 Palestinian fighters killed in the Gaza Strip since the start of the war.[xx] The IDF reported that these new recruits are ”low quality,” however.[xxi] The ”low-quality” of new fighters is unsurprising given that Hamas does not have the freedom of movement or safe spaces to train new recruits in the same way new fighters would have been trained before October 7th. The IDF Air Force continues to strike with ease across the Gaza Strip. Training would increase the signature of Hamas fighters and present them as targets for the IDF Air Force. These fighters would be able improve their capabilities without a non-Hamas security presence to continue to disrupt training activities, however. An IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip without a viable alternative security force to challenge Hamas’ monopoly on violence would provide Palestinian militias the space to rebuild fighter capacity. Raids can temporarily disrupt but will not stop a reconstitution process.[xxii]

Key Takeaways:

• Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq.
• Gaza Strip: Hamas likely retains the institutional knowledge and skilled commanders required to reconstitute despite the loss of several high-ranking Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip since October 2023. The IDF has killed three of five Hamas Brigade commanders in the Gaza Strip.
• Hamas Reconstitution: Hamas is deploying poorly trained new recruits in the Gaza Strip, probably due to its inability to effectively train new fighters amid Israeli military pressure. This inability to effectively train fighters will not persist if military pressure—from Israel or a different security force—does not continue.
• Iran in Africa: Iran is still attempting to establish a permanent naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast following unsuccessful bilateral talks in March 2024. Sudanese Armed Forces officials reportedly rejected these Iranian proposals due to concerns about potential backlash from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Western countries.
• Lebanon: Nasrallah gave a televised speech on July 17 commemorating the Shia holy Day of Ashura and stated that Hezbollah would hit new Israeli targets if Israel “continues to target civilians” in Lebanon. CTP-ISW has observed that Hezbollah has attacked areas further south in Israel in retaliation for recent Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah leaders.

Iran Update, July 16, 2024

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is articulating a foreign policy that is a continuation of the policies of his hardline predecessor even as Pezeshkian attempts to present himself to the West as a "reformist.” Pezeshkian penned an op-ed entitled "My Message to the World” in English-language, Foreign Ministry-affiliated outlet the Tehran Times on July 12.[i] Pezeshkian framed himself as a reformist and reiterated that he ran his presidential campaign “on a platform of reform.” Pezeshkian contradicted his initial statement by reaffirming his commitment to many of the policies of his hardline predecessor, most notably signaling support for continuing former President Ebrahim Raisi’s “neighborhood” policy. The “neighborhood” policy seeks to build relations with regional states.[ii] The policy is part of a broader Iranian effort to build a new regional order in which Iran is a central player and the United States has little influence.[iii] Pezeshkian emphasized the importance of cooperation with regional partners including Iraq, Oman, Bahrain and Turkey. Pezeshkian also emphasized the importance of working with neighboring Arab countries in an op-ed in UK-based, Qatari-owned Arabic-language outlet al Araby al Jadeed on July 10. Pezeshkian added that one of his administration’s first measures will be to work with neighboring Arab countries to ”utilize all political and diplomatic leverages” to secure a ceasefire and prevent the widening of the Israel-Hamas war. Pezeshkian stressed the ”de[v]value” of Iran’s relations with Russia and China. Pezeshkian separately reaffirmed his commitment to the Axis of Resistance through letters and phone calls following the election.[vi]

Pezeshkian’s only articulated policy that aligned with his “reformist” agenda is his desire to pursue a nuclear deal with the West. Pezeshkian restated his intention to engage in “constructive dialogue” with Western countries in his op-ed. Pezeshkian repeatedly emphasized his desire to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West throughout his campaign.[vii]  It is unclear whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would permit Pezeshkian to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West in a manner that is meaningfully different from the Ebrahim Raisi administration. The Raisi administration attempted to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West, albeit Raisi sought to gain broad sanctions relief in exchange for small concessions on the Iranian nuclear program.[viii] Khamenei implicitly criticized Pezeshkian’s support for increasing Iranian engagement with the West in a speech on June 25.[ix]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not officially confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. The IDF did not include Deif on the list it published on July 16 that shows Hamas commanders who the IDF has confirmed it killed in the Gaza Strip.[x] Israeli journalists reported that the IDF assesses that the likelihood Deif survived the July 13 strike is “extremely slim,” however.[xi] The IDF reportedly has increased confidence that Deif was inside the compound of Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. The IDF has already confirmed that it killed Salamah in the strike.[xii] The IDF Air Force dropped eight 2,000-pound precision munitions targeting a building that the IDF believed Deif and Salamah had entered.[xiii] The IDF also believes that recent clearing operations forced Deif to leave the underground tunnels where he was hiding to join Salamah in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone.[xiv] Israeli intelligence and security establishments reportedly assess that Deif’s death would increase the likelihood of reaching a ceasefire agreement “due to Deif's fanatical positions.”[xv][xvi]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is articulating a foreign policy that is a continuation of the policies of his hardline predecessor even as Pezeshkian attempts to present himself to the West as a "reformist.”
• Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not officially confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. Israeli journalists reported that the IDF assesses that the likelihood Deif survived the July 13 strike is “extremely slim,” however.
• Israel: Israeli police and Shin Bet arrested three Israeli citizens accused of working for Iranian intelligence.
• Yemen: The Houthis claimed three attacks on July 16 targeting civilian tankers in the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea on July 15.

Iran Update, July 15, 2024

The Axis of Resistance is continuing to try to coerce Gulf states into reducing their economic cooperation with Israel. Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah warned Saudi Arabia on July 13 that it will “pay the price” for allowing Israel to conduct trade through Saudi territory.[i] Kataib Hezbollah accused Saudi Arabia of allowing Israel to use overland trade routes through Saudi territory “as an alternative to sea lanes.”[ii] Kataib Hezbollah was likely referring to the trade corridor that connects Israel to the Persian Gulf via the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.[iii] Israel has increasingly relied on this land route to mitigate the impact of Houthi attacks on international shipping around the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.[iv] The Houthis conducted around 190 attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea between November 2023 and mid-June 2024, causing trade activity at the Port of Eilat to decrease by approximately 85 percent.[v] Kataib Hezbollah previously vowed in April 2024 to sever the Israeli “land bridge” that passes through Jordan.[vi]

Kataib Hezbollah’s desire to disrupt the Israeli economic cooperation with the Gulf states is part of a larger Axis of Resistance effort to economically isolate Israel. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have repeatedly called on Muslim countries to impose an embargo on Israel.[vii] Iranian officials and media have also criticized Gulf states for allowing Israel to conduct trade through their territory and argued that the “land bridge” connecting Israel to the Persian Gulf renders Houthi attacks in the Red Sea “ineffective.”[viii] An Iranian-backed Bahraini militia began conducting attacks targeting Israel in April 2024 as part of the Axis of Resistance effort to impose an unofficial blockade on Israel.[ix] Iran and its allies appear to be operating on the theory that severe economic disruption would compel Israel to accept defeat in the Gaza Strip and that such economic pressure could ultimately collapse the Israeli state. Iranian leaders have repeatedly said in recent months that part of their theory on how to destroy Israel revolves around stoking instability and terror in Israel to catalyze reverse migration away from Israel.[x]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not yet confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone on July 13 targeting Deif and Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah.[xi] The IDF confirmed on July 14 that the strike killed Salamah.[xii] Hamas officials maintain that Deif is alive but have not provided evidence to back their assertion.[xiii]

Key Takeaways:

• Iraq: The Axis of Resistance is continuing to try to coerce the Gulf states into reducing their economic cooperation with Israel. The Axis of Resistance has sought to isolate Israel economically throughout the Israel-Hamas war.
• Gaza Strip: Israel has not yet confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. Hamas has asserted that Deif is alive but has provided no evidence.
• Syria: Israel conducted several airstrikes into Syria, including one targeting a high-profile Syrian businessman involved in moving military material across the Levant.

Iran Update, July 14, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it killed Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah in the southern Gaza Strip on July 13.[i] The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Salamah and Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, on July 13.[ii] The IDF described Salamah as one of the “masterminds” of Hamas’ attack into Israel in October 2023.[iii] Salamah helped plan multiple other attacks against Israel throughout his career, including the kidnapping of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit in 2006.[iv] Salamah had commanded the Khan Younis Brigade after replacing senior Hamas military leader Mohammad Sinwar in 2016.[v] The IDF said that Salameh was responsible for all rockets attacks from the Khan Younis area into Israel. The IDF called Salamah’s killing “a significant blow” to Hamas’s military capabilities in the Gaza Strip.[vi] Sources from Hamas confirmed Salamah’s death.[vii]

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: The IDF confirmed that it killed the commander of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade in an airstrike targeting senior Hamas officials in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF said that it is still assessing whether the airstrike killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif.
• West Bank: A Palestinian fighter conducted a car ramming and shooting attack in central Israel, injuring four Israeli soldiers.
• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted nine attacks into northern Israel.
• Yemen: The Houthis claimed two drone and missile attacks targeting a commercial vessel.

Iran Update, July 13, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, on July 13.[i] The strike also targeted Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. Israel is still assessing whether the strike killed Deif or Salamah. Israeli officials confirmed that they conducted the strike based on specific intelligence collected over the prior 24 hours.[ii] The IDF Air Force dropped eight 2,000-pound precision munitions targeting a building in which Deif and Salamah were assessed to be.[iii] Anonymous Israeli officials speaking to Western media said that the building was in a fenced off open separated from refugee tents.[iv] An Israeli military correspondent, citing IDF sources, reported that Israeli security officials are optimistic that the strike killed Deif.[v] Hamas denied that the IDF killed any senior commanders.[vi] The Hamas-run Gazan Health Ministry claimed that strike killed 71 and injured 289.[vii] Anonymous Israeli officials speaking to Western media said that most individuals killed in the strike were Hamas fighters assigned to protect Deif and Salma.[viii]

Mohammed Deif was a notably senior official in Hamas, particularly its military wing. Deif played a leading role in building Hamas’ underground tunnel networks and planning Hamas’ attack into Israel in October 2023.[ix] The US State Department sanctioned Deif in 2015 and described him as the ”mastermind of Hamas’ offensive strategy.”[x] Anonymous Israeli officials speaking to Western media described Salamah similarly as one of the ”masterminds” of the October 2023 attack.[xi] Salamah oversaw a ”central combat center” in the southern Gaza Strip.[xii] Salamah reportedly helped plan multiple attacks on Israel throughout his career, including the kidnapping of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit from Sufa in 2006.[xiii] Salamah‘s uncle, Jawad Abu Shamala, is a member of Hamas’ political bureau and reportedly has a close relationship with leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar.[xiv]

Hamas called on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and West Bank to rise up in retaliation for Israel targeting Mohammad Deif. Hamas suggested that intensifying violence against Israeli settlers and soldiers in the West Bank could distract the IDF from operations in the Gaza Strip and thus exhaust the IDF.[xv] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered a heightened security threat level “on all fronts.”[xvi]

Key Takeaways:

1. Gaza Strip: The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. The strike also targeted Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. Israel is still assessing whether the strike killed Deif or Salamah.
2. West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters six times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on July 12. PIJ fired small arms at the Israeli town Gan Ner in retaliation for Israel targeting Mohammed Deif.
3. Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least six attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on July 12.
4. Yemen: US CENTCOM destroyed three Houthi drones in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on July 12.

Iran Update, July 12, 2024

Hamas continued to promote its postwar plan for a technocratic government to jointly rule the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Hamas is content with this plan because it expects to maintain a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip thereby controlling the government or evading its rule. Hamas official Hossam Badran said on July 12 that Hamas proposes that a national, non-partisan group assumes administration of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank after the war.[i] Hamas has previously agreed to “technocratic” governments as part of a possible post-war Gaza Strip.[ii] Hamas approves of a ”technocratic government” because Hamas understands that it would be able to exert influence over such a government given that Hamas expects to maintain a military arm in the Gaza Strip after the war.

The ceasefire text currently under consideration does not contain a clause ensuring Hamas’ disarmament in the Gaza Strip, enabling Hamas to maintain control by force in the event of an Israeli withdrawal.[iii] Israel and Hamas do not currently have a framework to discuss Hamas’ disarmament under the current ceasefire proposals. Hamas official Hossam Badran called disbanding Hamas’ military wing a nonstarter.[iv] Hamas’ current demands regarding the phased ceasefire could also enable Hamas to drag on negotiations indefinitely with no mechanism to compel it to release the remaining hostages or commit to disarmament. Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar would very likely fail to disarm in any event because to do so would result in Sinwar and Hamas losing a key element of their power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas forces throughout the Strip remain combat effective and are attempting to reconstitute, with some success. Sinwar has noted that he believes Hamas has Israel “right where [Hamas] wants [Israel].”[v]

Hamas would continue to shape, intimidate, and control a technocratic government if the group retains a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has previously undermined Israeli attempts to set up alternative governance structures in the Gaza Strip and will likely continue to suppress political alternatives. Hamas could use its functioning military and internal security wings to coerce technocratic government employees at every level, thus providing Hamas with significant influence over the Gazan government even if Hamas officials were not officially controlling it. Hamas has a long history of killing and suppressing dissidents and political alternatives, including members of local Gazan clans who Israel has approached to form a non-Hamas authority after the war.[vi] Hamas would almost certainly act quickly to constrain and co-opt the activities of a technocratic government in the Strip in order to prevent it from seriously challenging Hamas’ military or governance activities. The latest proposal for a 2,500-strong US-trained interim security force would be insufficient to provide order and challenge Hamas’ monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip.[vii]

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian appointed former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as the chairman of his Steering Council to lead Pezeshkian’s transition into the presidency on July 12.[viii] This appointment is emblematic of Pezeshkian’s intent to seriously pursue negotiations with the West. Zarif’s appointment follows reports that Pezeshkian may appoint former deputy foreign affairs minister for policy and deputy nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi as his foreign minister.[ix] The appointment of Zarif to lead Pezeshkian’s transition, combined with a possible appointment of Araghchi as foreign minister, illustrates Pezeshkian’s intent to seriously pursue negotiations with the West.

Zarif’s appointment in the transition team illustrates how previously marginalized, moderate political elements are seeking to capitalize on Pezeshkian’s victory to re-enter the political conversations. Zarif—a moderate who served under moderate President Hassan Rouhani—had previously been sidelined in Iranian politics under the Raisi Administration after the collapse of the JCPOA.[x]  Zarif will likely remain influential during the transition period by informing Pezeshkian’s decision-making regarding the composition of his cabinet.

Zarif denied, however, that he is seeking a permanent position in Pezeshkian’s government. Zarif separately tweeted on July 12 that the Pezeshkian transition team has ”just begun” to make decisions about the appointment of government ministers.[xi]  Zarif urged Iranians to ignore the rumors circulating that Pezeshkian has already decided who will be nominated for cabinet positions.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Hamas continued to promote its postwar plan for a technocratic government to jointly rule the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Hamas is content with this plan because it expects to maintain a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip thereby controlling the government or evading its rule. Hamas would continue to shape, intimidate, and control a technocratic government if the group retains a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip.
• Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian appointed former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as the chairman of his Steering Council to lead Pezeshkian’s transition into the presidency on July 12. This appointment is emblematic of Pezeshkian’s intent to seriously pursue negotiations with the West. Zarif’s appointment in the transition team illustrates how previously marginalized, moderate political elements are seeking to capitalize on Pezeshkian’s victory to re-enter the political conversations.
• Iran in Russia: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf conducted bilateral meetings with his counterparts from Russia, Ethiopia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Tajikistan on the sidelines of the BRICS parliamentary forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 11 and July 12.
• Lebanon: A senior Hezbollah leader said in a speech on July 12 that Hezbollah must use military force, rather than diplomatic talks, to force Israel to end the war in the Gaza Strip.

Iran Update, July 11, 2024

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani has traveled to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria in recent days to meet with unspecified Axis of Resistance leaders, according to Iraqi media.[i] An anonymous Iranian source told Baghdad Today that Ghaani met with Iranian-backed officials from Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Yemen during his travel. The source reported that Ghaani met with militia leaders in Iraq on July 9, which is the same day that Iranian-backed Iraqi and Palestinian militias met in Baghdad to discuss military and political coordination.[ii] Ghaani may have attended this meeting given his role in coordinating and planning Axis of Resistance activity. This flurry of activity across the Axis of Resistance could in part reflect preparations for a possible major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon.

Some senior IRGC commanders have emphasized in recent days the need for the Iranian political establishment, particularly hardliners, to accept and support Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian in order to preserve political stability. Former IRGC Commander Major General Mohsen Rezaei said on July 10 that Pezeshkian should be considered part of “the revolution front,” which is a reference to parts of the hardline camp.[iii] Rezaei further stated that those who support the regime and Islamic Revolution must also support Pezeshkian. IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh similarly on July 11 called on supporters of runner-up presidential candidate Saeed Jalili to respect Pezeshkian’s victory and avoid criticizing the electoral process.[iv] Hajji Zadeh described Pezeshkian as “the president of the entire nation and of every Iranian.” Hajji Zadeh also noted that former President Ebrahim Raisi’s death could have triggered a “major crisis” but that the regime averted such a crisis and conducted two rounds of voting within a week “without the smallest problem.” Rezaei’s and Hajji Zadeh’s statements are consistent with CTP-ISW's previous assessment that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei prioritized regime legitimacy and stability over installing his preferred candidate in the election.[v]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani has traveled to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria in recent days to meet with unspecified Axis of Resistance leaders, according to Iraqi media
• Some senior IRGC commanders have emphasized in recent days the need for the Iranian political establishment, particularly hardliners, to accept and support Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian in order to preserve political stability.
• Gaza Strip: International mediators are reportedly considering using 2,500 US-trained PA supporters from the Gaza Strip as an interim governing force in the Gaza Strip.
• Russia: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attended the BRICS parliamentary forum in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Iran Update, July 10, 2024

Palestinian militias, including Hamas, are continuing to coordinate militarily and politically with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) Deputy Secretary General Jamil Mazhar met with the leaders of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Asaib Ahl al Haq, the Badr Organization, and the Jihad and Construction Movement in Baghdad on July 8 and 9.[i] The Jihad and Construction Movement is affiliated with the Badr Organization and controls the Popular Mobilization Forces 17^th Brigade.[ii] Mazhar called for increasing coordination between Palestinian and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias during his meetings with the militia leaders. Mazhar praised the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—for "exhausting” the United States and Israel through its repeated attacks targeting US bases and Israeli targets since October 2023.[iii] Mazhar separately discussed Palestinian militia activities in the West Bank. Unspecified Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) officials attended Mazhar’s meeting with Hadi al Ameri, who is head of the Badr Organization.[iv]

The PFLP, Hamas, and PIJ delegations’ visit to Baghdad comes amid reports that Hamas plans to relocate its political leadership to Iraq. Emirati media reported in late June 2024 that Hamas plans to move its political leadership to Iraq due to growing pressure from the United States and Qatar on Hamas to show greater flexibility in ceasefire negotiations with Israel.[v] Iran will reportedly be responsible for protecting Hamas personnel and offices in Iraq. The Emirati report followed the opening of a Hamas political office in Baghdad in early June 2024.[vi]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued new evacuation orders for all of Gaza City on July 10.[vii] The IDF dropped leaflets over Gaza City urging civilians to evacuate southward for Deir al Balah and al Zuwayda in the central Gaza Strip. The IDF stated that Gaza City will remain a "dangerous combat zone.” The announcement appears to be an expansion of an earlier Israeli evacuation order issued for parts of Gaza City on July 8.[viii] The IDF 98th and 99th divisions are currently in Gaza City. The 99th Division launched a raid into Tal al Halwa, Gaza City, on July 8 in order to find and destroy Palestinian militia infrastructure.[ix] Some of that infrastructure was inside a UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) headquarters.

Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah tried to project strength and highlight Israeli weakness during a speech on July 10. [x] Nasrallah claimed that the IDF cannot likely launch a major offensive into Lebanon because of bandwidth constraints. He also boasted that Hezbollah attacks into Israel have exhausted Israeli forces. Nasrallah claimed that the extension of Israeli reservists’ service is imposing economic and social costs on Israel. Nasrallah likely made these remarks to portray confidence to Hezbollah members and the Lebanese public while messaging his readiness and willingness to fight Israeli leaders.

Lebanese Hezbollah is adapting to evade Israeli detection and surveillance ahead of a possible major Israeli offensive into Lebanon. Reuters reported on July 10, citing six anonymous sources familiar with Hezbollah operations, that Hezbollah is adapting in response to Israeli airstrikes and surveillance.[xi] These adaptations include banning its members from using cellphones in the battlefield and instead requiring them to use couriers and pagers to communicate. Hezbollah is also using an Iranian-financed, private telecommunications network that involves fiber optic cables running from Beirut to southern Lebanon and the Bekka Valley. The sources furthermore told Reuters that Hezbollah frequently changes its code words to reference meeting sites and weapons. The Reuters report is consistent with Nasrallah warning in February 2024 that Israel is surveilling Lebanese phone calls.[xii] Israel has conducted extensive airstrikes targeting Hezbollah throughout the Israel-Hamas war. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated on July 7 that the IDF has killed three division-level Hezbollah commanders and 15 brigade-level Hezbollah commanders.[xiii]

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is apparently considering nominating Abbas Araghchi as his foreign affairs minister, underscoring Pezeshkian’s intent to seriously pursue nuclear negotiations with the West. IRGC-affiliated media reported on July 10 that Pezeshkian’s advisers "have almost reached the final conclusion” to nominate Araghchi, citing an unspecified source.[xiv] The source claimed that Araghchi has advised Pezeshkian on his conversations with unspecified Axis of Resistance and regional officials in recent days. Araghchi played a prominent role in the nuclear negotiations with the West under the Hassan Rouhani administration and served as Rouhani's deputy foreign affairs minister for policy between 2017 and 2021.[xv] It is unclear whether the Iranian Parliament, which is currently dominated by hardliners, would approve Araghchi as foreign affairs minister. It is furthermore unclear whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would permit Araghchi to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West in a manner meaningful different from the Ebrahim Raisi administration if the Iranian Parliament does approve him as foreign affairs minister. Khamenei implicitly criticized Pezeshkian’s support for increasing Iranian engagement with the West in a speech on June 25.[xvi]

Key Takeaways:

• Iraq: Palestinian militias, including Hamas, are continuing to coordinate militarily and politically with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. PFLP, Hamas, and PIJ delegations recently met with senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders in Baghdad.
• Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued new evacuation orders for all of Gaza City on July 10.
• Southern Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah is adapting to evade Israeli detection and surveillance ahead of a possible major Israeli offensive into Lebanon. Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah separately tried to project strength and highlight Israeli weakness during a speech on July 10.
• Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is apparently considering nominating Abbas Araghchi as his foreign affairs minister, underscoring Pezeshkian’s intent to seriously pursue nuclear negotiations with the West.

Iran Update, July 9, 2024

Hamas is threatening to end ceasefire negotiations with Israel in response to Israeli raids targeting Hamas fighters in Gaza City. This effort may seek to trigger increased international pressure on Israel to stop the raids. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh said on July 8 that continued Israeli raids in Gaza City and Rafah would end the current Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations.[i] Israel launched a raid in Tal al Hawa in southwest Gaza City on July 8 to target Hamas fighters, dismantle militia infrastructure, and destroy weapons caches.[ii] Israel is conducting raids on a UNRWA headquarters in Gaza City that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have used to detain individuals, shelter fighters, and store weapons.[iii] Israeli forces also sought to locate and destroy militia safehouses and other sheltered positions during the raids.[iv] Haniyeh’s statement suggests Hamas is concerned that the Israeli raids could severely disrupt Hamas’ capabilities in the area. Haniyeh and Hamas may assess that threatening to end negotiations over Israeli action will cause the mediators to increase pressure on Israel to slow or cease operations to save the deal. Hamas will likely survive an Israeli operation in Tal al Hawa because it is able to relocate fighters and resources to other areas of the Gaza Strip and infiltrate areas after Israeli forces have completed clearing operations. Israeli operations do damage Hamas, however, and this statement suggests that Hamas seeks to decrease Israel’s ability to conduct these raids at will.

Hamas has begun transporting unspecified equipment to Baghdad International Airport in preparation for relocating its political leadership to Iraq, according to an unspecified senior Shia Coordination Framework member.[v] The politician claimed that Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq Leader Qais al Khazali and Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri met on July 8 to discuss Hamas’ potential relocation to Baghdad. The politician noted that unspecified Shia factions are divided over whether the Iraqi federal government should allow Hamas to move to Iraq. Emirati media reported on June 24 that Hamas plans to relocate its political leadership to Iraq due to growing pressure from the United States and Qatar on Hamas to show greater flexibility in ceasefire negotiations with Israel.[vi] Emirati media noted that Iran would be responsible for protecting Hamas personnel and offices in Iraq. The Emirati report followed the opening of a Hamas political office in Baghdad in early June 2024.[vii]

Key Takeaways:

• Hamas: Hamas is threatening to end ceasefire negotiations with Israel in response to Israeli raids targeting Hamas fighters in Gaza City. This effort may seek to trigger increased international pressure on Israel to stop the raids.
• Hamas in Iraq: Hamas has begun transporting unspecified equipment to Baghdad International Airport in preparation for relocating its political leadership to Iraq, according to an unspecified senior Shia Coordination Framework member.
• Lebanon: Hezbollah released drone footage on July 9 reportedly showing various Israeli military sites in the Golan Heights.

Iran Update, July 8, 2024

Iran is expanding its domestic drone and missile production capacities, which would enable further Iranian military support to Russia and the Axis of Resistance. Reuters, citing commercially available satellite imagery, reported on July 7 that Iran has expanded two defense industrial sites outside Tehran City in recent months[i] The satellite imagery indicated that Iran has built over 30 new buildings at the two sites, which are meant to support the manufacturing of ballistic missiles and drones. A Western analyst that Reuters cited assessed that the expansion began at one site—the Khojir missile production complex—in August 2023 and at the other site—the Shahid Modarres base—in October 2023.[iii] The buildings are apparently still under construction. Anonymous Iranian officials speaking to Reuters claimed that Iran would transfer the drones and missiles produced at these facilities to Russia, the Houthis, and Lebanese Hezbollah. The satellite imagery of the Iranian sites also showed dirt berms surrounding many of the new structures, indicating the nearby presence of highly combustible materials.[iv] The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) oversees both sites undergoing construction.

The expansion of the Iranian defense industrial sites come amid discussions between Iran and Russia to expand their military cooperation. Politico, citing anonymous sources, reported in April 2023 that Iran was negotiating a deal with Russia and China to send missiles to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[v] Western officials and media moreover indicated in January 2024 that Iran and Russia were continuing negotiations to supply Iranian missiles to Russian forces.[vi] Reuters reported in February 2024, citing anonymous Iranian sources, that Tehran had sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.[vii]

Iranian short-range ballistic missiles could improve the Russian ability to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. Kremlin-affiliated milblogger Rybar claimed in February 2024 that the acquisition of Iranian missiles would enable Russian forces to hit “remote Ukrainian targets.”[viii] The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson similarly said in February 2024 that Russia acquiring such missiles would pose a ”serious threat to Ukraine.”[ix] This Russo-Iranian military exchange is part of the strategic partnership that has developed between Moscow and Tehran since 2022, which CTP-ISW has covered extensively.[x]

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be associating himself with members of the moderate Hassan Rouhani administration, which was in power from 2013-21. Pezeshkian identified former Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as one of his close advisers and supports while running for the presidency.[xi] Zarif served in the Rouhani administration and played a prominent role in negotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.[xii] Rouhani’s Information and Communications Technology Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi has separately been advising Pezeshkian throughout his campaign.[xiii] Pezeshkian has since winning the presidential elections met other members of the Rouhani administration, such as Rouhani himself and former Economic Affairs and Finance Minister Ali Taib Nia.[xiv] The connection between Pezeshkian and the Rouhani administration could indicate that Pezeshkian will draw from this network to build his cabinet. That Pezeshkian may be rallying support from Rouhani’s circles would be unsurprising given that Pezeshkian has not historically appeared to have a prominent support base independently. Pezeshkian will remain considerably constrained in his capacity as president, regardless of support from Rouhani and his network.

Masoud Pezeshkian held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 8, marking one of his first known call with a foreign official as president-elect.[xv] Pezeshkian advocated for the continued expansion of Russo-Iranian ties on the call.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran-Russia cooperation: Iran is expanding its domestic drone and missile production capacities, which would enable further Iranian military support to Russia and the Axis of Resistance.
• Iran Domestic Politics: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be associating himself with members of the moderate Hassan Rouhani administration, which was in power from 2013-21.
• Gaza Strip: Israel and international mediators are weighing options for interdicting Hamas weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip in the event of an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor.

Iran Update, July 7, 2024

Hamas is continuing to resist Israeli and US efforts to create a phased ceasefire deal that would secure the release of Israeli hostages, end the war, and begin major reconstruction efforts in the Gaza Strip. The remaining gap in ceasefire negotiations is significant because agreeing to the most recent Hamas language would effectively commit Israel to the permanent ceasefire Hamas has been demanding before Hamas had released all remaining hostages. Hamas’ current demands could also enable Hamas to drag on negotiations indefinitely with no mechanism to compel it to release the remaining hostages. Hamas remains unlikely to accept a proposal that does not meet its maximalist demands, including a permanent ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange. The May 31 ceasefire proposal announced by US President Joe Biden continues to serve as the basis for negotiations.[i] The phases of the May 31 proposal were:[ii]

1. Phase one involves a six-week ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip. Hamas would release an unspecified number of hostages, including Americans, women, and elderly and sick individuals, in exchange for “hundreds” of Palestinian prisoners in this phase. Displaced Palestinian civilians would return to their homes, including those in the northern Gaza Strip. Humanitarian aid would “surge with 600 trucks [entering the Gaza Strip] per day,” which is a notable increase from the 500 trucks in an earlier Israeli proposal. Negotiations for a permanent ceasefire would continue during this phase.
2. Phase two involves Hamas and other Palestinian militias releasing all remaining living hostages, and the IDF withdrawing from the Gaza Strip completely. Biden said that the United States, Egypt, and Qatar would facilitate continued negotiations during this phase.
3. Phase three involves major reconstruction efforts in the Gaza Strip. It also involves Hamas and the other militias returning the bodies of all hostages to Israel.

Hamas attempted in early June to undermine the phasing of the May 31 proposal by demanding the beginning of reconstruction in phase one and a complete halt to the war regardless of whether negotiations to transition to the second phase succeeded.[iii] The May 31 proposal notably did not guarantee a transition from the first to the second phase of the ceasefire. This would enable Israel to resume military operations if Hamas proved unwilling to compromise on the specifics for a permanent ceasefire beginning after phase two and three. Undermining the phasing would have enabled Hamas to continue to extract concessions from Israel indefinitely without transitioning to phase two, because Israel could not impose military pressure on Hamas to encourage Hamas to compromise to release hostages without breaking the agreement. Hamas’ attempt to undermine the phasing of the proposal also did not make clear how Israel would secure the release of the remaining hostages that would have been released under phase two of the May 31 proposal.

Hamas’ most recent ceasefire position demonstrates that the group has not meaningfully shifted its position since negotiations last stalled in June and that it still seeks to undermine the agreement’s phasing. Axios reported on July 6 that the outstanding gaps between Israel and Hamas center on the language regarding and time-delimitation of negotiations to transition from the first phase of the ceasefire deal to the second phase.[iv] The current proposal says that the United States, Egypt, and Qatar will “make every effort” to ensure negotiations during the first phase end in a transition to the second phase and a sustainable calm. Hamas is attempting to remove “make every effort,” replacing it with “ensure“ and dropping the original six-week time limit for the first phase.[v] This change would make the initial ceasefire effectively permanent from the start and would commit the United States, Qatar, and Egypt to securing a ceasefire and enable Hamas to draw out negotiations for the transition to the second phase indefinitely, if needed.[vi] The language and removal of the time-delimited first phase makes it more difficult for Israel to resume operations to pressure Hamas and extract concessions without breaking the agreement entirely or appearing to scuttle negotiations over the transition to phase two. This could allow Hamas to secure a complete ceasefire without adhering to commitments under phases two and three, which include the release of Israeli hostages. The categories of hostages in phase two and three include Israeli soldiers, whom Hamas is reticent to release.

Hamas and its leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, feel that they can manipulate ceasefire negotiations in this manner because they remain confident that they are winning in the Gaza Strip. Hamas forces throughout the Strip remain combat effective and are attempting to reconstitute, with some success. Sinwar has noted that he believes Hamas has Israel “right where [Hamas] wants [Israel].”[vii]  

Post-election statements by both President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian and the supreme leader indicate that the Pezeshkian administration will not change the regime’s trajectory. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated his desire for Pezeshkian to continue the policies of former president Ebrahim Raisi in a message on July 6 following the presidential election.[viii] Pezeshkian issued a statement to the people of Iran on July 6 following the election thanking Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for opening the field for “participation and competition.”[ix] Pezeshkian has repeatedly reiterated his commitment to enforcing Khamenei’s policies throughout his campaign. Pezeshkian also prayed at the tomb of first Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini on July 6 after the election to “renew his allegiance to Khomeini’s ideals.”[x] Masoud Pezeshkian will be sworn in as the ninth president of the Islamic Republic of Iran on August 4 or 5, according to a member of Iran’s parliament presiding board.[xi]

Key Takeaways:

• Ceasefire Negotiations: Hamas is continuing to resist Israeli and US efforts to create a phased ceasefire deal that would secure the release of Israeli hostages, end the war, and begin major reconstruction efforts in the Gaza Strip. The remaining gap in ceasefire negotiations is significant because agreeing to the most recent Hamas language would effectively commit Israel to the permanent ceasefire Hamas has been demanding before Hamas had released all remaining hostages. Hamas’ current demands could also enable Hamas to drag on negotiations indefinitely with no mechanism to compel it to release the remaining hostages.
• Gaza Strip: Hamas military spokesperson Abu Obeida claimed on July 7 that Hamas has regenerated materiel and personnel across the Gaza Strip.
• Iran: Post-election statements by both President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian and the supreme leader indicate that the Pezeshkian administration will not change the regime’s trajectory.
• Northern Israel: Lebanese Hezbollah also launched a heavy barrage of rockets targeting IDF air defense assets and surveillance equipment in response to the Israeli strike that killed Attar. Hezbollah aims to degrade Israel's integrated air defense system by targeting Mount Meron, which hosts air surveillance and battle management functions.

Iran Update, July 6, 2024

Moderate politician Masoud Pezeshkian won the Iranian presidential runoff election on July 5.[i] Iranian media reported that Pezeshkian received over 16 million votes, while his opponent, ultraconservative hardliner Saeed Jalili, received approximately 13.5 million votes.[ii] Pezeshkian and Jalili won approximately 10.4 million and 9.5 million votes respectively in the first round of voting on June 28.[iii] The Iranian Election Headquarters announced that voter turnout in the runoff presidential election was 49.8 percent, marking an approximately 10 percent increase from the first round of elections on June 28.[iv] Pezeshkian will be inaugurated on an unspecified date between July 22 to August 5.[v]Pezeshkian’s presidency will mark a departure from hardline President Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency.  Pezeshkian has repeatedly criticized Raisi’s presidency in recent weeks.[vi]

Pezeshkian previously served as a senior health official in the reformist Mohammad Khatami administration from 2000-2005 and as a parliamentarian from 2008 to 2024.[vii] Pezeshkian hails from Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province, and is fluent in Azeri and Kurdish.[viii] Pezeshkian is trained as a physician and served as a medic during the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988.[ix] He later served in the reformist Khatami administration as health and medical education minister.[x] Pezeshkian is currently a parliamentarian representing East Azerbaijan Province and has held this role for 16 years.[xi]  He served as a deputy parliament speaker in 2016.[xii] Pezeshkian was disqualified from running in the 2021 presidential election, making his recent qualification and subsequent presidential win noteworthy.[xiii]

Pezeshkian will likely attempt to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West, although it is unclear to what extent Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will permit him to do so. Pezeshkian called for increasing international engagement with Western actors and endorsed a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) throughout his campaign.[xiv] Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign affairs minister under reformist president Hassan Rouhani who helped negotiate the JCPOA in 2015, has played a prominent role in Pezeshkian’s campaign, suggesting that Pezeshkian is committed to resuming negotiations.[xv]  Pezeshkian separately supported resolving issues with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).[xvi] The FATF blacklisted Iran in February 2020 for failing to implement anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing policies.[xvii] The Supreme Leader has previously expressed foreign policy and nuclear views that promote domestic production over economic engagement with the West, making it unclear to what extent Khamenei will permit Pezeshkian to engage with Western actors.[xviii] Khamenei has also indirectly criticized Pezeshkian’s campaign and has called on him to “continue [former hardline president Ebrahim] Raisi’s path” in his presidency.[xix]

Pezeshkian’s presidency is unlikely to generate meaningful changes within the regime. Pezeshkian supports regime policies like mandatory veiling. Pezeshkian has previously critiqued the Noor Plan—a 2024 Iranian law enforcement plan that often violently enforces veiling—but continues to support mandatory veiling within Iran and has argued that the regime must reform the way it educates girls so that they do not question the need to veil.[xx] Pezeshkian has also boasted about his role in enforcing mandatory veiling in hospitals and universities shortly after the Islamic Revolution.[xxi] Pezeshkian has repeatedly reiterated his commitment to enforcing Khamenei’s policies throughout his campaign. The president also lacks the authority to pursue policies different from the supreme leader’s edicts, even if the president aims to pursue policies separate from the supreme leader.[xxii] 

Pezeshkian’s presidency suggests that Khamenei prioritized the regime’s legitimacy over his individual legacy in this instance. Khamenei implicitly criticized Pezeshkian’s campaign policies and espoused Jalili’s nuclear and foreign policy views in a speech on June 25, which suggested that Khamenei preferred Jalili over Pezeshkian.[xxiii] Khamenei previously paved the way for his preferred candidate, Ebrahim Raisi, to win the August 2021 presidential election.[xxiv] The fact that Khamenei allowed Pezeshkian to win the election suggests that Khamenei prioritized preserving the Islamic Republic’s veneer as a “religious democracy” over installing a president who more closely aligns with his hardline stances on domestic and foreign issues.

It is particularly noteworthy that Khamenei allowed Pezeshkian to win given that the next Iranian president may oversee Khamenei’s succession. Khamenei is currently 85 years old and has almost certainly begun to consider who will succeed him. That Khamenei allowed Pezeshkian to win suggests that he believes Pezeshkian could maintain order in the regime and Iranian society during a potential succession crisis. It also suggests that Khamenei prioritizes regime survival over having a president in power whose views and policies directly align with his own.

Khamenei may have calculated that manipulating the July 5 election results could stoke widespread unrest. The regime previously engineered the election results between reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi and hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009, which galvanized a months-long anti-regime protest wave.[xxv] The regime might be particularly wary of public unrest given that it recently suppressed the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement and that much of the Iranian population still holds sociocultural, political, and economic grievances against the regime.[xxvi]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Moderate politician Masoud Pezeshkian won the Iranian presidential runoff election on July 5. Pezeshkian’s presidency is unlikely to generate meaningful changes within the regime. It is noteworthy, however, that Khamenei allowed Pezeshkian to win given that the next Iranian president may oversee Khamenei’s succession.
• Ceasefire Negotiations: Anonymous Israeli officials said that the main sticking point in ceasefire negotiations centers around Article 14, which states that the United States, Egypt, and Qatar will “make every effort” to ensure negotiations end in an agreement and that a ceasefire is held as negotiations continue. Hamas seeks to remove the phrase “make every effort,” leaving only “ensure.”
• Gaza Strip: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported on July 6 that the 98th Division located a weapons warehouse in Shujaiya containing long-range rockets and explosive charges.

Iran Update, July 5, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a delegation led by Mossad Director David Barnea to Doha, Qatar on July 5 to continue ceasefire talks.[i] Barnea met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani on July 5 to build discussions on the ceasefire proposal Hamas submitted to Israel on July 2.[ii] An anonymous Israeli official told The New York Times that the Israeli delegation is engaging in preliminary talks before advancing to more “substantive” talks.[iii] US and Israeli officials described this new round of ceasefire talks as a breakthrough after weeks of stalled negotiations but the officials warned that these talks do not guarantee a ceasefire deal.[iv] Netanyahu told the Israeli negotiation team prior to its departure to Doha that the war in the Gaza Strip will end “only after achieving all of [the war] goals.”[v] An anonymous US official cautioned that “[t]here’s still work to do” on the ceasefire.[vi]

Israel’s post-war plan for the Gaza Strip remains unclear as negotiations resume in Doha. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said that Saudi Arabia supports an international force under the auspices of the United Nations to support the Palestinian Authority in the Gaza Strip following the end of the war.[vii] Hamas has promised to prevent the deployment of foreign forces in the Gaza Strip.[viii]

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah discussed Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and security developments in the Gaza Strip with a senior Hamas delegation in Beirut on July 5.[ix] Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Khalil al Hayya led the Hamas delegation. Nasrallah and the delegation discussed Hamas’ political efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement with Israel. The Hamas delegation expressed appreciation for Hezbollah’s support to Palestinian fighters in the Gaza Strip.

The Hamas delegation separately held meetings with a senior Houthi delegation and a delegation from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, without providing additional details.[x]

Iran held its second round of its presidential election between ultraconservative hardliner candidate Saeed Jalili and moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian on July 5.[xi] The Iranian Election Headquarters extended the voting deadline from 1800 to 0000 local time, likely to try to increase voter turnout.[xii] This action is not unprecedented; the regime has previously extended voting hours during both presidential and parliamentary elections, including during the June 28 first round presidential election.[xiii] The Interior Ministry will likely announce the final election results in the morning local time of July 6. CTP-ISW will publish analysis of the results on July 6.

Iran is continuing to promote greater financial and monetary cooperation with Russia to try to undermine Western sanctions. Central Bank of Iran Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin traveled to St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 3 to attend a financial conference.[xiv] Farzin called on BRICS members to form a financial institution similar to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).[xv] The FATF blacklisted Iran in February 2020 for failing to implement anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing policies.[xvi] Farzin also called on Russia, China, and Iran to use their national currencies—rather than the US dollar—in economic transactions.[xvii] Farzin invited Russia to join the Asian Clearing Union, which is a payment arrangement in which the central banks of member states "settle payments for intra-regional transactions...on a net multilateral basis.”[xviii] Iran, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka currently comprise the Asian Clearing Union. Belarus applied to join the Asian Clearing Union in May 2023.[xix]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iran held its second round of its presidential election between ultraconservative hardliner candidate Saeed Jalili and moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian on July 5.
• Ceasefire Negotiations: Israeli Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu sent a delegation led by Mossad Director David Barnea to Doha, Qatar on July 5 to continue ceasefire talks.
• Gaza Strip: Hamas tactics and Shujaiya’s dense, urban terrain are presenting challenges for the IDF, in some cases requiring that Israeli infantry clear building multiple times.
• Lebanon: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah discussed Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and security developments in the Gaza Strip with a senior Hamas delegation in Beirut on July 5.

Iran Update, July 4, 2024

Recent Iranian polls show that moderate Masoud Pezeshkian is leading over ultraconservative hardliner Saeed Jalili in the Iranian presidential race.[i] The runoff election will occur on July 5. The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) published a poll on July 4 showing that Pezeshkian has a 5.6 percent lead over Jalili.[ii] ISPA notably predicted accurately that Pezeshkian and Jalili would win the highest and second highest number of votes, respectively, in the first round of voting on June 28.[iii] ISPA also correctly predicted that pragmatic hardliner Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf would receive significantly less votes than Pezeshkian and Jalili.[iv] The July 4 ISPA poll is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation on July 1 that Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the July 5 runoff election.[v]

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must decide whether he will permit Pezeshkian to win the election if Pezeshkian wins the most votes. Khamenei recently expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with Jalili’s views, suggesting that Khamenei endorses Jalili.[vi] Khamenei furthermore indirectly criticized Pezeshkian’s campaign policies on the same date.[vii] Khamenei’s opposition to some of Pezeshkian’s policies could lead him to directly intervene in the upcoming election and install Jalili as president.

Israel and Hamas have resumed negotiations over a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Qatar sent Hamas on June 25 a revised ceasefire proposal that was based on an earlier US-backed proposal.[viii] The new proposal includes several unspecified amendments to the original text.[ix] Hamas has reviewed the new proposal and sent its response to Israel. Israeli leaders plan to discuss the Hamas response and send a delegation for further discussions.[x] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone call with US President Joe Biden on July 4 to discuss the new proposal.[xi]

Hamas appears to have changed part of its maximalist negotiating position in its response to the new proposal. An anonymous Israeli official said that Hamas is no longer demanding the full withdrawal of Israeli forces during the first phase of the proposed ceasefire.[xii] This phase includes a six-week ceasefire and the release of some Hamas-held hostages. The phasing of the original US-backed proposal has been a point of disagreement between Israel and Hamas.[xiii]

Significant obstacles remain to securing a ceasefire agreement, however. Lebanese media reported that some of the changes in the new proposal do not “affect the essential issues” but are meant to preserve negotiations.[xiv] An Israeli official similarly told Axios that ”serious challenges” remain and that it could take several weeks to reach a deal.[xv]

Iran and the Axis of Resistance are conducting an information operation meant to prevent Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon. An anonymous commander from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq told Western media that there would be an “escalation for escalation” if the IDF goes into Lebanon..[xvi] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. The commander also told Western media that the coalition has sent military advisers and experts to Lebanon to help Lebanese Hezbollah prepare for a greater conflict against the IDF. These remarks come after two unspecified Iraqi officials told Associated Press that some advisers are already in Lebanon to support Hezbollah.[xvii] Iranian-backed Iraqi and Lebanese officials separately told the Associated Press that thousands of Iranian-backed fighters from across the Middle East would join the war between Israel and Hezbollah.[xviii] That the Axis of Resistance is speaking to Western media reflects its intent to message to Western audiences.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Recent Iranian polls show that moderate Masoud Pezeshkian is leading over ultraconservative Saeed Jalili in the Iranian presidential race.
• Gaza Strip: Israel and Hamas have resumed negotiations over a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Significant obstacles remain to securing a ceasefire agreement.
• Lebanon: Iran and the Axis of Resistance are conducting an information operation meant to prevent Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon.

Iran Update, July 3, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iran held its final debate before the upcoming presidential runoff election. Ultraconservative Saeed Jalili continued to downplay the importance of nuclear negotiations with the West. Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian tried to garner support from hardliners.
• Lebanon: Israeli forces killed the commander responsible for Lebanese Hezbollah operations in southwestern Lebanon. Hezbollah has sustained almost daily attacks into northern Israel since October 2023, despite the IDF killing Hezbollah commanders throughout the war.
• Gaza Strip: Qatar sent Hamas a revised ceasefire proposal for the Gaza Strip. Hamas has reviewed the proposal and sent its response to Israel. This comes after Hamas essentially rejected the most recent US-backed ceasefire proposal.
• Syria: Iranian-backed militias have moved advanced weapons into Syria and established a drone assembly site in eastern Syria, according to Syrian opposition media.

Iran Update, July 2, 2024

Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the runoff presidential elections on July 2. Several recent polls demonstrate that Pezeshkian is maintaining his lead over hardline candidate Saeed Jalili.[i] Pezeshkian received 10.4 million votes and Jalili received around 9.5 million during the first round of elections on June 28.[ii]  Former presidential candidate and pragmatic hardliner Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s campaign head Sami Nazari Tarkarani also endorsed Pezeshkian on July 2.[iii] This endorsement may divert some of 3.4 million votes Ghalibaf received during the first round of elections to Pezeshkian, thus advantaging Pezeshkian.[iv] Pezeshkian also performed strongly in a July 1 economic debate against Jalili. Members of Jalili’s own faction criticized Jalili’s poor performance, in contrast.[v] Details on this debate are included in the following paragraphs.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must determine if he will permit Pezeshkian to win the election if Pezeshkian maintains his lead over Jalili. Khamenei expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with ultraconservative hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili’s views, suggesting that Khamenei endorses Jalili.[vi] Khamenei also indirectly criticized Pezeshkian’s campaign policies on the same date.[vii] This suggests that Khamenei may decide to prevent Pezeshkian from becoming president. Raisi’s 2021 election suggests that Khamenei is comfortable engineering elections to advantage his preferred candidate.[viii] The Guardian Council denied the candidacies of several prominent politicians in the 2021 elections and Raisi therefore faced no significant competition in the race.[ix]

It is unclear, however, how and if Khamenei will advantage Jalili if Pezeshkian is able to generate increased support and win the election this week. The regime engineered the election results between reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi and hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009, galvanizing a months-long anti-regime protest wave.[x] Khamenei would risk further deteriorating regime legitimacy and possibly kickstarting unrest if Pezeshkian garners increased support in the coming days and Khamenei decides to undermine Pezeshkian’s ability to win the election.

The two remaining presidential candidates, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili, discussed the economy in the first debate of the election’s second round on July 1.[xi] Both candidates reiterated previous economic talking points on their agenda from the first round.[xii]

• Masoud Pezeshkian (reformist): Pezeshkian emphasized the importance of increased public participation in the economy, including by women and minority groups. Pezeshkian also emphasized the importance of high voter turnout rates for the final election on July 5. He probably calculates that a greater voter turnout will improve his chances at election.[xiii] Pezeshkian said that international sanctions cause Iran’s economic issues in part, but that the government’s failure to fully implement economic policy also contributes to Iran’s economic woes.[xiv] Pezeshkian said that improving the economy also requires pragmatism in diplomatic relations with the world, noting that Iran will ”never...cancel all sanctions” and that loosening sanctions depends on ”what we give [diplomatically] and what we get [diplomatically]“ and whether Iran wants to ”solve [its] problem with the world or not.”[xv] Pezeshkian also noted the value of strong management within government.
• Saeed Jalili (ultraconservative hardliner): Jalili focused on how the next government can create more employment opportunities.[xvi] Jalili agreed with Pezeshkian that greater participation in the economy is better.[xvii] Jalili proposed finding alternative trade partners to alleviate sanctions’ impact on the Iranian economy.[xviii] This suggestion presumably means that China, Russia, and other US adversaries. Jalili did not suggest returning to nuclear negotiations as a way to improve the Iranian economy or relations with foreign countries.[xix] Jalili criticized Pezeshkian for placing too much of the blame on the Iranian government for the failure of JCPOA and not enough on the other parties involved.[xx]

A senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is attempting to publicly discourage US support for a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon. Strategic Foreign Relations Council Chairperson and Supreme Leader Foreign Affairs Advisor Kamal Kharrazi stressed Iran's support for Hezbollah in the event of an Israeli military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon during an interview with the Financial Times on July 2.[xxi] The fact that Kharrazi gave this interview to this outlet suggests his primary audience is the West, including the United States. Kharrazi said that Iran was “not interested” in participating in a regional war and stressed the need for the United States to discourage Israel from launching an operation against Hezbollah. Kharrazi noted that Iran and the Axis of Resistance would have “no choice” but to use “all means” to support Hezbollah in the event of an Israeli military offensive into southern Lebanon. Kharrazi’s comments follow statements from several Iranian officials boasting about Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s ability to destroy Israel in recent days. IRGC Air Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh warned that Iran is ”awaiting an opportunity for the True Promise II Operation” during a speech on July 1.[xxii] The first True Promise Operation was the Iranian drone and missile attack targeting Israel on April 13.[xxiii] Acting Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani separately told Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in a phone call on July 1 that Hezbollah is ”fully prepared” to resist any Israeli threats into Lebanon.”[xxiv]

Kharrazi separately reiterated in his interview with the Financial Times that Iran was open to pursuing nuclear weaponization if it faced ”an existential threat.” [xxv] Kharrazi made similar statements suggesting that Iran could pursue a nuclear weapon in May 2024.[xxvi] Kharrazi’s statements also coincide with normalized discussions about Iran’s ability to procure nuclear weapons among Iranian officials and evidence that Iran has expanded its nuclear program in recent weeks, suggesting a broader policy shift in Tehran.[xxvii]

Several current and former Israeli security officials told the New York Times that top Israeli generals disagree with political establishment’s war goals in the Gaza Strip.[xxviii] Unspecified Israeli generals reportedly think a ceasefire is the best way to ensure the release of living Israeli hostages from Hamas custody.[xxix] Former Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata corroborated this account, adding that high-level military officials believe a ceasefire would allow for the release of hostages and that the IDF could fight Hamas at some point in the future.[xxx] Hulata was the national security advisor until early 2023. Hamas has rejected ceasefire proposals that do not ensure a permanent ceasefire partly due to the possibility of the IDF fighting Hamas again after Hamas releases the hostages.[xxxi] IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari implied on June 19 that the IDF thinks the Israeli prime minister’s goal of destroying Hamas is not an achievable goal and that those advocated the goal are ”misleading the Israeli people.”[xxxii] IDF clearing operations have successfully degraded Hamas battalions throughout Gaza Strip, but Hamas has reconstituted its forces in several areas after Israeli withdrawals, partly from newly recruited fighters.[xxxiii] The IDF explicitly responded to the New York Times report, reiterating that the IDF agrees with the Israeli political leaders' goal to “destroy the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas” and return Israeli hostages.[xxxiv] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his stance that the war will end once Israel “achieves all of its objectives, including the destruction of Hamas and the release of all” the hostages.[xxxv] The reported disagreement between the Israeli civil-military establishment comes as the IDF is expected to shift from full division-sided clearing operations like it is currently pursuing in Rafah to a reduced but lasting force presence along the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors.[xxxvi]  Prime Minister Netanyahu said on July 1 that the IDF was advancing to the ”end of the stage of eliminating Hamas” militarily.[xxxvii]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the runoff presidential elections on July 2. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must determine if he will permit Pezeshkian to win the election if Pezeshkian maintains his lead over Jalili. Khamenei would risk further deteriorating regime legitimacy and possibly kickstarting unrest if Pezeshkian garners increased support in the coming days and Khamenei decides to undermine Pezeshkian’s ability to win the election.
• Lebanon: A senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is attempting to publicly discourage US support for a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon.
• Gaza Strip: Several current and former Israeli security officials told the New York Times that top Israeli generals disagree with political establishment’s war goals in the Gaza Strip. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari implied on June 19 that the IDF thinks the Israeli prime minister’s goal of destroying Hamas is not an achievable goal and that those advocated the goal are ”misleading the Israeli people.”
• Yemen: The Houthis claimed on July 1 that it conducted four ballistic and cruise missile attacks targeting four commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean. CTP-ISW cannot verify that these attacks occurred.

Iran Update, July 1, 2024

Hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili will likely win the Iranian presidential election in the runoff race on July 5. No candidate received the majority of votes needed to win the Iranian presidential election on June 28 and Iran will hold a runoff election between the two most popular candidates—ultraconservative Saeed Jalili and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian—on July 5.[i] Pezeshkian received 10.4 million votes while Jalili received around 9.5 million. The second most prominent hardline candidate—Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—received around 3.4 million votes in the first round of elections on June 28, which was not enough to compete in the runoff election.[ii] At least some Ghalibaf voters will presumably back Jalili in the runoff election, however, giving Jalili a significant advantage over Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian has also struggled to consolidate support among Iranian youth, a key voter demographic for the reformist faction.[iii] Pezeshkian is unlikely to garner enough support to win against Jalili, especially since social media users have circulated statements in recent days of Pezeshkian boasting about his role in enforcing unpopular policies such as mandatory veiling.[iv]

The Iranian regime is attempting to frame the July 5 presidential runoff elections as a fair and competitive race, despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicating a preference for hardline candidate Saeed Jalili.  Khamenei has repeatedly expressed concern about low voter turnout rates in recent years and views participation in Iran’s presidential elections as a demonstration of Iran’s democratic legitimacy.[v] Iranian regime officials during this election cycle have attempted to reinforce the regime’s democratic legitimacy by boasting that Pezeshkian’s candidacy illustrated the legitimacy of Iran’s electoral process.[vi] Some Iranian university students confronted  Pezeshkian in a meeting on June 16, framing his candidacy as an effort on the part of the regime to contribute to an “illusion of democracy” and an attempt by the regime to legitimize the elections.“[vii] The June 28 voter turnout rate was nevertheless unprecedently low at 40 percent, with the lowest recorded rates in Kermanshah, Kurdistan and Tehran provinces.[viii] It is noteworthy that a significant percentage of anti-regime protests during the Mahsa Amini movement occurred in Kurdistan and Tehran provinces, suggesting continued disillusionment with the Iranian regime in these regions.[ix]

Khamenei and segments of Iran’s clerical establishment have indirectly demonstrated a preference Jalili in recent days, making a Pezeshkian win unlikely regardless of how many votes he receives. Khamenei expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with ultraconservative hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili’s views, suggesting that Khamenei endorses Jalili.[x] Khamenei also indirectly criticized Pezeshkian’s campaign policies on the same date, making it unlikely that Khamenei will permit him to become president. Segments of the Iranian clerical establishment may also back Jalili. Reformist-affiliated Entekhab News posted a screenshot on July 1 that it claimed showed coordination among Iranian clerics to campaign for Jalili in villages and cities across Iran.[xi] Entekhab also circulated reports on July 1 that the influential Qom Seminary in Iran will close this week for its students and teachers to help improve voter turnout. Entekhab suggested that the Qom Seminary closures corroborated reports of clerics campaigning for Jalili.[xii] It is likely, if the Qom Seminary closures are indeed connected with reports of clerics campaigning, that students and teachers will disperse to their hometowns—specifically rural areas—to generate support for Jalili. Rural and sparsely populated areas have historically served as a bastion of support for the regime and its hardline policies.[xiii] Roughly 35 percent of the Iranian population lives in rural areas and political engagement in these areas could furthermore improve voter turnout rates while benefiting Jalili.[xiv]

The Supreme Leader will risk further deteriorating regime legitimacy in the unlikely event that Pezeshkian garners enough votes to win the election. Khamenei has criticized Pezeshkian’s policies and echoed Jalili’s nuclear and foreign policies, indicating that Khamenei endorses Jalili over Pezeshkian. It is therefore unlikely that Khamenei will permit Pezeshkian to win, regardless of whether Pezeshkian receives the majority of votes. Raisi’s 2021 election suggests that Khamenei is comfortable engineering elections to advantage his preferred candidate.[xv] The Guardian Council denied the candidacies of several prominent politicians in the 2021 elections and Raisi therefore faced no significant competition in the race. It is unclear, however, how Khamenei will advantage his preferred candidate if Pezeshkian is able to generate increased support and win the election this week. The regime engineered the election results between reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi and hardline Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009, galvanizing a months-long anti-regime protest wave.[xvi] Khamenei will risk further deteriorating regime legitimacy and possibly kickstarting unrest in the unlikely event that Pezeshkian garners significant support in the coming days.

Palestinian militia groups in the West Bank appear to be strengthening at the expense of the Palestinian Authority. Palestinian militia fighters, Israeli military officials, and Palestinian Authority officials told the New York Times that Palestinian militia organizations control refugee camps in the West Bank by refusing to allow Palestinian Authority security forces to enter.[xvii] Palestinian fighters have prevented Palestinian Authority officials from entering refugee camps since before October 7, according to Palestinian media.[xviii] Fighters in Nur al Shams, east of Tulkarm, fired small arms at Palestinian Authority forces in June 2023 when the Palestinian Authority attempted to remove barriers that Palestinian militia fighters had placed at the entrances of the camp to prevent Israeli forces from entering.[xix] Palestinian militia control of refugee camps in the West Bank provides a relatively safe area for Palestinian militias to build new capabilities and plan operations against both the IDF and the Palestinian Authority.

The Palestinian Authority’s inability to exert effective control over refugee camps in the West Bank has significant implications for the post-war situation in the Gaza Strip, if these statements to the New York Times are accurate. The Palestinian Authority remains extremely unpopular, and Hamas will be able to easily justify continued resistance to the Palestinian Authority in the Gaza Strip if the authority assumes control with Israeli backing. A surviving Hamas in the Gaza Strip will attempt to rapidly resume its control over the Gaza Strip and continue its efforts to undermine the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Hamas sees control over the Gaza Strip as an interim step to creating an Islamist Palestinian state controlling all of Israel and the Palestinian territories.[xx]

The Iranian-guided effort to establish combined battalions in the West Bank since at least 2022 is almost certainly contributing to the gradual strengthening of Palestinian militia groups in the West Bank. Palestinian militias—under Iranian direction—have created a series of combined battalions in the West Bank since at least 2022, modeled on the Lion’s Den militia in Nablus.[xxi] The New York Times interviewed a former Fatah militia member who had defected to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and now leads one of these combined battalions in Tulkarm.[xxii] This battalion includes all Palestinian factions in the area, including PIJ, Hamas, and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade.[xxiii] Palestinian militias in combined units are able to unify planning and logistics by combining their resources, thus improving the militias’ capabilities and efficiency in aggregate.

Israeli security measures will likely constrain the groups’ ability to quickly expand their capabilities, however. Israeli counter-smuggling efforts and IDF control over access to the West Bank make it challenging for Palestinian militia groups to successfully access enough materiel to build advanced explosive devices or weapon systems at scale. Israeli security forces have successfully interdicted relatively large smuggling operations throughout and prior to this war.[xxiv] Major Israeli raids also disrupt the activity of nascent militia cells before these cells have time to build large stockpiles of weapons and explosives.[xxv] CTP-ISW has not observed a major and consistent change in militia capabilities during the war.

Iran is likely continuing its efforts to arm West Bank militias by smuggling arms through Jordan into the West Bank. The IDF thwarted an attempt to smuggle handguns and rifle parts into the West Bank from Jordan on July 1.[xxvi] Three smugglers attempted to cross the border from Jordan into the northern West Bank.[xxvii] Israeli border police and the IDF searched the area and discovered three bags containing over 75 handguns and dozens of M16 rifle components, including upper receivers, bolts, and charging handles.[xxviii] Israeli security forces have not apprehended the three suspects at the time of writing.[xxix] The July 1 smuggling attempt is consistent with other Iranian-backed smuggling attempts.

Iran is supplying Palestinian militias with weapons to improve their capabilities and to foment unrest against Israel.[xxx]  Both Israeli and Jordanian police have thwarted numerous attempts in recent months by Iran and its partners to transport small arms, explosives, mines, and rockets across the Jordan-West Bank border.[xxxi] Iranian-backed smugglers often use established multinational narcotics-smuggling networks and routes to smuggle arms from Syria into Jordan.[xxxii]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 98th Division continued clearing operations to degrade a reconstituted Hamas battalion and to demolish underground military infrastructure in Shujaiya, Gaza City, on July 1.[xxxiii] The IDF re-entered Shujaiya on June 27.[xxxiv] Hamas fighters in Shujaiya have targeted Israeli forces with sophisticated weapons, such as explosively formed penetrators, supporting the IDF assessment that the Hamas Shujaiya Battalion has at least partially reconstituted since the IDF last operated in the area in April 2024.[xxxv] The IDF killed Hamas‘ Shujaiya Battalion commander and his deputy in December 2023, which led them to conclude the battalion was ”significantly damaged.”[xxxvi] The IDF assesses that Hamas has partially rebuilt its battalion from new recruits and Hamas fighters from other degraded battalions.[xxxvii] One element of reconstitution is reorganization, in which a commander redistributes the resources at their disposal to restore attrited units to a minimal level of effectiveness.[xxxviii] Building composite units by combining several degraded or combat ineffective battalions is one common way to reorganize a force to be minimally combat effective. Israeli forces operating in Shujaiya have also destroyed weapons productions sites during the past several days of operations, indicating that Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion is also pursuing small-scale weapons production to replenish its stockpiles and aid in regeneration tasks.[xxxix] CTP-ISW previously observed that Hamas cells have probably established a rear area in Jabalia or northern Shujaiya, from which they can mount attacks on IDF units along the Israel-Gaza Strip border.[xl]

The IDF issued evacuation orders for eastern Khan Younis on July 1.[xli] An IDF evacuation order typically means that Israeli forces will enter the area within 24 hours to begin clearing operations.[xlii] PIJ launched 20 rockets from Khan Younis into southern Israel roughly 10 hours before the IDF issued the order on July 1.[xliii] The IDF Air Force struck the launch site shortly after PIJ fired the barrage.[xliv]  An Israeli military correspondent reported on June 23 that Hamas is reconstituting its military and governance structures in Khan Younis in the absence of Israeli force presence.[xlv] The IDF withdrew its forces from Khan Younis on April 7.[xlvi] Hamas is also working to reassert local control in Khan Younis by deploying fighters on the streets, managing local policing, and taking over humanitarian aid shipments.[xlvii] Hamas is restoring its governing organizations as well, which has prompted the IDF to target Hamas officials involved in these activities.[xlviii] Hamas’ reconstitution in Khan Younis is likely driving the IDF to conduct a short-term raid into Khan Younis. An IDF operation into Khan Younis may also target Hamas political and military leadership. CTP-ISW previously noted that the IDF’s decision to withdraw its forces from Khan Younis enabled Hamas militants and political leadership to flee to Khan Younis.[xlix] Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is likely hiding in a “vast” tunnel system beneath Khan Younis, according to unspecified US officials speaking to the New York Times.[l] Hamas fighters’ option to move northward contributed to their decision to not become decisively engaged in Rafah.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened to target US interests in Iraq and the Middle East in the event of an Israeli operation into southern Lebanon. The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee, a coordinating body comprised of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, met on June 30 and threatened to target US interests in Iraq and the region and increase the “pace and type” of its operations if Israel launches a major military offensive into Lebanon.[li] Iranian-backed militias initially paused attacks against US forces in the region in February 2024 after IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Baghdad and ordered a pause on the attack campaign after a Kataib Hezbollah drone attack killed three US soldiers in Jordan in January 2024.[lii] The militias’ announced strategy is partially inconsistent with a Saudi report that alleged Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would intervene in Lebanon by sending fighters and weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah if Israel launches a major military offensive into Lebanon. Both the IRGC and Hezbollah reportedly had reservations against such plans, which is consistent with the long-standing Iranian desire to avoid an overt regional war against the United States and Israel.  The militia’s newly articulated strategy is more consistent with the militia’s attacks and involvement in the Israel-Hamas war thus far.[liii]

The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee most recently threatened to resume its attack campaign on US forces and interests in the Middle East on June 19, citing the Iraqi government’s failure to establish a timeline for a US troop withdrawal from Iraq.[liv] The June 30 Coordination Committee statement citing a possible Israeli offensive into Lebanon as a trigger for new attacks comes after individual attempts by Iranian-backed Iraqi militia groups to resume attacks on US forces.[lv] Emirati state media reported that other Islamic Resistance in Iraq militia leaders have disagreed with Kataib Hezbollah’s calls to resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq since April 2024. Kataib Hezbollah has reportedly begun to ”reconsider” its decision to pause attacks.[lvi] Qais Khazali, who is the secretary general of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq, similarly threatened on June 24 to attack US interests if Israel launched a major military offensive into Lebanon.[lvii] Such calls appear to encourage action that would disobey the orders from the IRGC Quds Force commander in January to stop attacks.

The June 30 Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee statement also identified targeting the under-construction Aqaba-Basra oil pipeline connecting Basra, Iraq to Aqaba port south of Jordan, as a “starting point” for new attacks.[lviii] The Coordination Committee claimed that Aqaba-Basra oil pipeline is a ”malicious project aimed at draining Iraqi resources and paving a path toward normalization with Israel”. The pipeline project is strategically important for Iraq as it will offer a key alternative port to Iraq’s currently existing exports terminal, eventually diversifying its export routes and linking Iraq’s economy with those of its Arab neighbors.[lix] The Coordination Committee and Iran may assess that this declared strategy of attacking Jordanian targets is less likely to elicit a US response and is therefore less risky than targeting US forces in the region. This lower-risk strategy would also be consistent with the long-standing Iranian desire to keep its militia activity at