Iran Updates March 2024

Iran Update, March 31, 2023

• Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF continued to conduct clearing operations in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
• Central Gaza Strip: The IDF said that its Air Force conducted a drone strike targeting a PIJ command-and-control center in the al Aqsa Hospital complex in Deir al Balah.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: Egyptian state media reported, citing an unspecified security source, that Israel and Hamas have resumed ceasefire negotiations.
• West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least seven locations in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it launched a drone targeting an unspecified target in Eilabun, Israel.

Iran Update, March 30, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force struck Palestinian fighters and militia infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in western and northern Khan Younis.
• West Bank: Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least three locations in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least 11 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a drone attack targeting an unspecified Israeli military facility in the Golan Heights.

Iran Update, March 29, 2024

• Iran: Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri met with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued operating in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias claimed 11 attacks targeting Israeli forces in al Amal and al Qarara after several weeks of only few claimed attacks around Khan Younis.
• West Bank: Israeli forces detained a PIJ fighter in the Nour Shams refugee camp near Tulkarm.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: The IDF Air Force killed the deputy commander for Hezbollah’s missile and rocket unit in an airstrike in al Bazouriyeh in southern Lebanon.
• Iraq: Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee member Yasser Iskandar suggested that Iraq should acquire Russian military aircraft instead of US aircraft.
• Syria: Israel was likely responsible for a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed positions in Aleppo Province, Syria.
• Yemen: US Central Command intercepted four Houthi drones that were “aimed at a coalition vessel and a US warship” in the Red Sea.

Iran Update, March 28, 2024

• Iran in the Region: A series of senior Axis of Resistance officials have met with senior Iranian officials—including the supreme leader—in March, likely to coordinate and prepare plans for their reaction to a wider Israeli operation into southern Lebanon.
• The Syrian defense minister, Kataib Hezbollah secretary general, Palestinian Islamic Jihad secretary general, and Hamas Political Bureau chairman each met with senior Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Tehran between March 17 and 28.
• This string of meetings comes after IRGC Quds Force Commander Ghaani visited Beirut in February 2024 to discuss the possibility of an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah with Nasrallah.
• Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued operating in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on March 28. Israeli special operations forces (SOF) killed senior Hamas commander Raad Thabet there on March 28.
• West Bank: An armed Palestinian fired small arms targeting Israeli civilian vehicles near al Auja in the Jordan Valley on March 28, wounding three Israeli civilians.
• Lebanon: The IDF concluded a week-long training exercise on March 27 aimed at increasing IDF Northern Command readiness in northern Israel.
• Iraq: The Iraqi Foreign Minister said that the recent Islamic State attack in Moscow shows that ISIS is “resurging and stronger than ever” on March 28. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein’s comments are notable given their contrast with the statements of Iranian-backed Iraqi officials, who have claimed that ISIS is no longer a threat to Iraq.

Iran Update, March 27, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued operating in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Palestinian militias have conducted nearly 70 attacks targeting Israeli forces in and around the hospital since Israeli forces returned to the area on March 18.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces discovered a “significant” tunnel network in al Amal neighborhood in western Khan Younis.
• Unspecified US and Israeli officials told Axios that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to send two top officials to Washington to discuss a possible Israeli clearing operation into Rafah.
• Political Negotiations: Three unspecified people familiar with the Israel-Hamas negotiations told CNN that ceasefire talks have reached another stalemate but are continuing.
• West Bank: The IDF said that it conducted a “counterterrorism” operation around Jenin, highlighting the enduring militia network that exists there.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: The IDF Air Force conducted an airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing at least seven fighters associated with the military wing of a Lebanese Islamist political party Jamaa al Islamiyya.
• Iraq: Faylaq al Waad al Sadiq Secretary General Mohammad al Tamimi threatened to resume attacks targeting US forces if they do not leave Iraq.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed two attacks targeting Israeli military infrastructure.
• Yemen: Senior IRGC Quds Force officer Brig. Gen. Abdol Reza Shahlai directed the initial Houthi attacks targeting vessels around the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea in October 2023, according to Bloomberg, further underscoring the Iranian role in these attacks.
• Iran: Senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leaders continued their visit to Tehran.

Iran Update, March 26, 2024

Senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) officials have traveled to Iran likely to coordinate their ongoing efforts against Israel in the Gaza Strip and across the Middle East. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh and PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah both arrived in Tehran on March 26.[i] Haniyeh met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian to discuss the war. Nakhalah spoke at a religious rally at Azadi Stadium in Tehran and will likely meet with senior Iranian officials thereafter.[ii] The simultaneous visits of both Haniyeh and Nakhalah are noteworthy, as Iranian leaders have repeatedly emphasized the need for greater cohesion among Palestinian militias fighting Israel. Their visits are also noteworthy given that Iran and its so-called ”Axis of Resistance” will celebrate Quds Day—an annual anti-Israel holiday—on April 5 and will almost certainly use the occasion to broadcast the strength and unity of the Axis of Resistance.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasized the importance of using information operations, especially in the context of the Israel-Hamas war, on March 26. Khamenei asserted that influencing the information space and using it against adversaries can be just as effective as military strength during a meeting with Iranian poets in Tehran.[iii] Khamenei further stated that all ”war is a media war” and that whichever actor has greater media influence will achieve their goals. Khamenei especially praised Palestinian militias’ media efforts in shaping public attitudes and narratives in the Muslim world during his meeting with Haniyeh.[iv] Khamenei boasted that Palestinian militias’ media outlets have outperformed Israeli media throughout the Israel-Hamas war. This emphasis on achieving informational effects to win wars is not entirely new; Khamenei has long stressed the need for Iran to fight a ”soft war” against its adversaries. This soft war concept involves the use of information operations and psychological warfare to influence public perceptions.[v] Khamenei’s recent statements are, nevertheless, significant, as they are consistent CTP-ISW's assessment that the Iranian regime is trying to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to try to isolate Israel in the Middle East.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Senior Hamas and PIJ officials have traveled to Iran likely to coordinate their ongoing efforts against Israel in the Gaza Strip and across the Middle East.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasized the importance of using information operations, especially in the context of the Israel-Hamas war.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations around Beit Hanoun, northeastern Gaza Strip.
• Palestinian militias have launched most of their indirect fire attacks into Israel from the northern and central Gaza Strip since January 2024.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued clearing operations in western and northern Khan Younis.
• West Bank: Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least three locations in the West Bank.
• Northern Israel and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah fired unspecified weapons targeting the IDF Mount Meron air traffic control base in northern Israel. The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure in Zboud, Bekaa Valley.
• Iraq: Iraqi Foreign Affairs Minister Fuad Hussein said that the United States and Iraq will remain partners in the fight against ISIS,
• Syria: Israel was likely responsible for a series of airstrikes targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and IRGC-affiliated positions in eastern Syria.
• Yemen: The Houthis claimed that they conducted five drone and missile attacks targeting civilian and military vessels in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea over the previous 72 hours.

Iran Update, March 25, 2024

• West Bank: Shin Bet announced that the IDF seized a “significant amount of advanced arms from Iran” that Iran had smuggled into the West Bank to support Palestinian militia attacks targeting Israel.
• Northern Gaza Strip: A small number of Palestinian fighters have likely infiltrated Beit Hanoun in the northeastern Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF continued a second round of clearing operations in al Amal neighborhood, western Khan Younis.
• Political Developments: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed a resolution calling for “an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan respected by all parties” in the Gaza Strip.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Syria: Israel likely conducted an airstrike targeting an Iranian-backed militia- and Syrian Arab Army (SAA)-controlled military site near Damascus, Syria.
• Iran: The Iranian regime is continuing to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to try to politically isolate Israel in the Middle East. IRGC-affiliated media published images of Iranian protesters in Tehran on March 24 who were calling on Turkey to stop food and oil exports to Israel.
• Yemen: The Houthi movement threatened to attack oil installations in Saudi Arabia if Saudi Arabia allowed the United States to use Saudi airspace to strike the Houthis, which is probably a Houthi attempt to pressure Saudi Arabia into discouraging US airstrikes targeting Houthi military assets in Yemen.

Iran Update, March 24, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) engaged Palestinian militias north of Gaza City, including in Beit Hanoun.
• Israeli forces continued operations near al Shifa Hospital, Gaza City, on March 24. CTP-ISW inaccurately reported on March 23 that the IDF had concluded its operation at al Shifa Hospital. This operation is still ongoing, and the IDF did not report on March 23 that the operation had al Shifa had ended.
• Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF launched a second clearing operation in al Amal, western Khan Younis, on March 24.
• Lebanon: The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting a Hezbollah “weapons workshop” in Baalbek, the Bekaa Valley, on March 23 following a Hezbollah attack targeting an Israeli air defense site in northern Israel.
• West Bank: Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters in at least nine locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 23.
• Yemen: The Houthis launched five anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting the Panamanian-flagged, Chinese-owned, and Chinese-operated oil tanker Huang Pu in the Red Sea on March 23.

Iran Update, March 23, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued its weeklong operation in and around al Shifa Hospital on March 23.
• West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters during a raid targeting an unspecified “wanted individual” in Tulkarm in the West Bank on March 22.
• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 22.
• Yemen: CENTCOM reported that the Houthis launched four anti-ship ballistic missiles into the Red Sea but added that the Houthi attacks did not damage any military or commercial vessels.

Iran Update, March 22, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to conduct an operation in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on March 22.[i] The IDF 401st and Nahal Brigades (162nd Division) and Israeli special operations forces have killed approximately 150 Palestinian fighters in the hospital area since the operation began on March 18.[ii] Palestinian militias focused their attacks in the Gaza Strip on March 22 on Israeli forces al Shifa Hospital.[iii] A Palestinian journalist reported that Israeli forces ”intensified” operations in Gaza City east of al Shifa Hospital.[iv] Hamas' infiltration into the al Shifa Hospital area after Israel’s initial clearing operation highlights Hamas’ efforts and determination to reestablish itself in the northern Gaza Strip.[v]

Palestinian fighters may be retreating from certain areas of the Gaza Strip during Israeli clearing operations there before reentering those areas after the Israelis depart. Israeli forces are not permanently securing the areas that they clear, which allows Palestinian fighters to return after the IDF leaves. The current clearing operation in and around al Shifa Hospital is the third clearing operation in southern or western Gaza City. Israeli forces have launched new clearing operations in several neighborhoods surrounding al Shifa Hospital three times—including the ongoing operation—since   January. Israeli forces re-cleared al Shati Camp—to the immediate north of al Shifa Hospital—and Rimal neighborhood—where al Shifa Hospital is located—in early February and Zaytoun neighborhood, southeast of Rimal, in late February.[vi] Palestinian militias may have temporarily retreated from these areas during the Israeli operations there, as demonstrated by the large number of fighters that Israeli forces have detained during the newest Israeli clearing operation in Rimal focused on al Shifa Hospital, which began on March 18.

Palestinian militias may be maintaining at least one VBIED cell near Tubas. Hamas fighters detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) targeting an IDF bulldozer in Tubas during an Israeli raid on March 21.[vii] Palestinian fighters have deployed at least three VBIEDs targeting Israeli forces in the northern West Bank in 2024, including two VBIEDs in Tubas since March 7.[viii] CTP-ISW previously noted on March 7 that the two VBIED attacks on and prior to March 7 suggested the existence of a VBIED cell in the northern West Bank.[ix] It is unclear how sophisticated or well-manufactured these VBIEDs are. VBIEDs require significant logistical infrastructure, including dedicated workshops to reassemble cars after technicians take apart the vehicles and pack them with explosives.[x] VBIEDs also require bombmaking facilities, an area to stash the VBIED prior to its deployment, and a security detachment for the workshop and bombmaking facilities. The Palestinian militias in Tubas may be collaborating to assemble and deploy these VBIEDs, given the level of resources and expertise required.

A Hamas sniper wounded seven Israelis near an Israeli settlement in the West Bank on March 22 in a multi-stage ambush.[xi] The sniper fired multiple rounds at an Israeli bus near Dolev before engaging the IDF quick reaction force that responded to the attack.[xii] The sniper fired at the IDF quick reaction force from a series of pre-prepared firing positions for several hours before an IDF helicopter killed him.[xiii] The al Aqsa Martyrs‘ Brigades, Palestinian Mujahideen Movement, and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine all praised the sniper attack.[xiv]

The pause in Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks does not indicate a change in the long-term Iranian and Iranian-backed proxy objective to expel the United States from the Middle East. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq–an umbrella group of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias–has not conducted attacks targeting US forces in Iraq or Syria for 47 days.[xv] IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghaani ordered the Islamic Resistance in Iraq to pause attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria following the January 28 attack that killed three US service members in northeast Jordan.[xvi] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias retain the capability to resume attacks targeting US forces at any time for any reason of their choosing. CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla said during a Senate Armed Service Committee Hearing on March 7 that Iran has continued to send arms and funding to its Iraqi militias during the pause in attacks.[xvii] Iran and its so-called ”Axis of Resistance“ in Iraq have not deviated from their objective to remove US forces from Iraq. Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi met with unspecified leaders in Iran‘s ”Axis of Resistance” in Tehran on March 20 and said that the current pause in attacks on US forces does not mark the end of efforts to expel US forces from Iraq.[xviii]

Key Takeaways:

1. Gaza Strip: The IDF continued to conduct an operation in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Palestinian fighters may be retreating from certain areas of the Gaza Strip during Israeli clearing operations there before reentering those areas after the Israelis depart.
2. West Bank: Palestinian militias may be maintaining at least one VBIED cell near Tubas.
3. Iraq: The pause in Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks does not indicate a change in the long-term Iranian and Iranian-backed proxy objective to expel the United States from the Middle East.
4. Yemen: US CENTCOM and the French Navy intercepted multiple Houthi ballistic missiles and a Houthi naval attack drone in the Red Sea in several separate incidents.
5. Iran: Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in separate phone calls with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh and PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah.

Iran Update, March 21, 2024

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other Palestinian militias cooperating against Israel have likely established at least one cell in Jenin to target Israeli civilian areas outside of the West Bank. Israeli forces killed a Palestinian man from Jenin carrying a weapon and “ready-to-use explosive device” in Zeita, along the West Bank-Israel barrier, on March 11.[i] The IDF said that the man was en route to conduct a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv.[ii] A PIJ commander in Jenin organized the attack.[iii] PIJ probably received assistance from other Palestinian militias, given PIJ’s role in the Hornets’ Nest operations room and Jenin’s importance as a hub for militia activity. The Hornets’ Nest is a combined operations room that is based in Jenin and led by PIJ, Hamas, and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade.[iv] The IDF conducted a “brigade operation” in Jenin on March 13 following the attempted March 11 attack and arrested seven “wanted persons” and captured three improvised explosive devices.[v] The IDF Air Force killed the Palestinian commanders responsible for planning the March 11 attack in a March 20 airstrike that killed several fighters the IDF said were ”attempting to insert a hazard into the heart of Israel.”[vi]

The March 20 airstrike likely failed to destroy the Palestinian militia cell responsible for the manufacture, planning, and execution of the attempted March 11 attack. Suicide attacks require a significant logistical tail to manufacture and deploy suicide bombers.[vii] These logistical assets include bombmaking facilities, safehouses, and an area in which to mentally prepare the would-be suicide bomber.[viii] A single airstrike eliminating leaders of this cell will not cause the cell’s more important assets, such as bombmakers or recruiters, to cease operations. The airstrike may, however, cause a temporary pause or slowdown in operations as the cell reorganizes itself.

Palestinian militias in the West Bank almost certainly maintain additional cells focused on attacking Israel proper. Israeli border police detained a Palestinian man in Jericho on March 21 that Israeli police alleged planned to conduct a suicide bombing attack against an unspecified target.[ix] The logistical tail required to manufacture and deploy suicide bombers indicates that this Jericho attack and other unclaimed attempted attacks are not isolated events or attacks by independent individuals.

Palestinian militia presence in Jenin and other West Bank cities along the barrier wall—such as Tulkarm—offer geographic advantages for Palestinian militias that the groups could use to launch attacks into Israel proper. Jenin is only 5km south of the West Bank-Israel barrier, and Tulkarm is immediately adjacent to the Israeli town of Bat Hafer. The IDF “brigade operation” in Tulkarm on March 21 is notable in this context (see West Bank for more on this operation).[x] The IDF’s ability to disrupt militia attacks into Israel proper and eliminate would-be suicide bombers does demonstrate the difficulties faced by Palestinian militias in conducting these attacks, however. Israeli media reported on March 19 that the IDF had established a unit of engineering and intelligence personnel to locate “offensive tunnels” in the West Bank.[xi] The report added that the IDF established the unit after residents in Bat Hafer reported hearing “digging noises” under their homes.[xii] Both Jenin and Tulkarm have been hotspots of militia activity before and during the current war.[xiii] The IDF discovered a tunnel under Jenin refugee camp in July 2023 that Palestinian militias were using to transport weapons and hide fighters.[xiv] The development of tunnels that could cross under the West Bank-Israel barrier points to the threat posed by militias operating near the barrier wall.

Israeli forces continued to conduct an operation in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on March 21. Israeli special operations forces and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 401st Brigade (162nd Division) killed approximately 50 Palestinian fighters and located ammunition depots near the hospital over the last 24 hours.[xv] IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated on March 21 that Palestinian fighters remain barricaded in the al Shifa Hospital emergency room and that the Israeli forces are focused on evacuating civilians from the area before clearing the full hospital.[xvi] The IDF said on March 20 that its forces evacuated 3,700 Gazans to the southern Gaza Strip through a checkpoint near the hospital, detaining 300 of the 3,700 evacuees as suspected fighters.[xvii] Local Palestinian sources said Israeli forces had evacuated all of Rimal neighborhood, where al Shifa hospital is located.[xviii]  IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said on March 20 that the IDF would continue operations at al Shifa Hospital ”for a few more days.”[xix]

Halevi said that Hamas returned to al Shifa hospital and turned it into a command-and-control center as part of Hamas’ efforts to rebuild its governance in the northern Gaza Strip.[xx] Local sources also reported Israeli forces raided local government buildings in Rimal neighborhood.[xxi] Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip aim to destroy both Hamas’ military capabilities and government infrastructure.[xxii]

Israeli forces detained several high-level Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters at al Shifa Hospital. The IDF spokesperson said on March 21 that Israeli forces detained 600 people, including 358 PIJ and Hamas fighters, since the raid began.[xxiii] The IDF said "very significant" senior Hamas commanders are among those captured but that the IDF would not disclose their identities due to ongoing questioning.[xxiv]  Israel said that included among the detainees were Hamas officials responsible for facilitating attacks in the West Bank.[xxv] The IDF said many PIJ fighters surrendered to Israeli forces as the IDF entered al Shifa hospital.[xxvi] Israeli forces detained PIJ’s Shujaiya Battalion commander, the deputy commander of PIJ's Northern Gaza Brigade, and the PIJ northern Gaza tunnel commander in al Shifa Hospital.[xxvii] Israeli forces also detained two PIJ fighters responsible for intelligence and military communications.[xxviii] IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said during his visit to the hospital on March 20 that the raid at al Shifa Hospital is targeting senior Palestinian militia leaders.[xxix]  Halevi added that the IDF operations are causing “severe damage to Hamas, dismantling Hamas, killing the military leadership, [and damaging] the civilian [Hamas] leadership.”[xxx]

Four Palestinian militias conducted at least 11 attacks targeting Israeli ground forces near al Shifa Hospital on March 21.[xxxi] The four Palestinian militias reported that their fighters engaged Israeli forces near al Shifa Hospital with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades. Three militias also mortared Israeli forces at the hospital.[xxxii]

Key Takeaways:

• West Bank: Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other Palestinian militias cooperating against Israel have likely established at least one cell in Jenin to target Israeli civilian areas outside of the West Bank.
• A March 20 IDF airstrike targeting PIJ fighters coordinating a suicide attack cell in Jenin likely failed to destroy this cell, which was responsible for the manufacture, planning, and execution of an attempted March 11 suicide attack.
• Palestinian militias in the West Bank almost certainly maintain additional cells focused on attacking Israel proper.
• Palestinian militia presence in Jenin and other West Bank cities along the barrier wall—such as Tulkarm—offer geographic advantages for Palestinian militias that the groups could use to launch attacks into Israel proper.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct an operation in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on March 21. Israeli forces detained several high-level Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters at al Shifa Hospital.
• Iraq: Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada Secretary General Abu Ala al Walai described Israeli maritime ports and airports as “legitimate targets” on March 21.
• Iran: The US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned three procurement networks across four different countries on March 20 for supporting Iran’s ballistic missile, nuclear, and defense programs.

Iran Update, March 20, 2024

Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi said during a meeting with unspecified leaders in Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” in Tehran on March 20 that the current pause in attacks on US forces does not mark the end of efforts to expel US forces from Iraq .[i] Hamidawi said that he and the unspecified leaders discussed challenges and the timing of “resistance” activity.[ii]  He argued that “the politicized and the weak” must be prevented from interfering in this effort.[iii] Hamidawi was likely referring to Iraqi Sunni political parties that Iranian-affiliated Iraqi Shia parties have accused of blocking attempts to remove US forces from Iraq.[iv]

Israeli forces continued to conduct an operation in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on March 20. Israeli special operations forces and the Israel Defense Forces 401st Brigade (162nd Division) killed approximately 90 Palestinian fighters and located weapons in the hospital area on March 20.[v] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that the IDF has apprehended about 350 suspected Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fighters in the hospital since the operation began.[vi] Israeli forces detained PIJ Political Bureau member Khaled al Batsh during the operation.[vii] The IDF noted that several Hamas battalion commanders were at the hospital but added that Gaza City Brigade Commander Izz al Din al Haddad was not present and is still at-large. Haddad is responsible for some of Hamas’ reconstitution efforts.[viii]

The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF assessed that Hamas may have tried in recent months to rebuild the underground tunnel system under al Shifa Hospital.[ix] The report clarified that Hamas could not hide weapons in the rebuilt tunnels and its fighters were unable to use the tunnels to exfiltrate from the hospital area. Israeli forces initially expanded clearing operations to al Shifa Hospital in November 2023.[x] An Israeli think tank analyst told the RAND Corporation in 2016 that during previous operations the IDF found that the Gaza Strip’s sandy soil means that tunnels are difficult to rebuild.[xi] Hamas and PIJ’s decision to use al Shifa to launch and direct operations after Israel’s initial clearing operations illustrates that Hamas will resume operations in areas without an Israeli presence, however.

Key Takeaways:

• Iraq: Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi said during a meeting with unspecified leaders in Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” in Tehran that the current pause in attacks on US forces does not mark the end of efforts to expel US forces from Iraq.
• Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct an operation in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
• Negotiations: Hamas’ senior representative to Lebanon Osama Hamdan said on March 20 that Israel responded negatively to Hamas’ ceasefire proposal.
• West Bank: The IDF Air Force killed four Palestinian fighters, including two low-level PIJ leaders, in a drone strike in the Jenin refugee camp.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: The IDF said that it has degraded Hezbollah’s ability to transfer weapons since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.
• Yemen: The Houthi supreme leader said on March 15 that the Houthis intend to target international shipping transiting the Indian Ocean and around the Cape of Good Hope. This statement is likely aspirational given the current maximum range of Houthi weapon systems, which is roughly 2,200km.
• Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei acknowledged the Iranian government’s shortcomings in “controlling inflation” and economic production during his Nowruz speech.

Iran Update, March 19, 2024

Iran is likely concerned that Armenia’s deteriorating relations with Russia and outreach to the West could increase NATO’s presence along its northern border. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi discussed the security situation in the Caucasus with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call on March 19.[i] Raisi told Putin that Iran is “ready to maintain stability” and protect Iran’s strategic interests in the Caucasus.[ii] Iran’s interests in the Caucasus include keeping overland trade routes open, preventing Israel from using Azerbaijan’s territory to operate against Iran, and preempting the spread of separatist sentiments among Iran’s Azeri minority.[iii] Russian readouts of Raisi and Putin’s phone call notably did not mention that the pair discussed the Caucasus.[iv]

Iranian leaders previously expressed concern that the United States and NATO would exploit the Russian focus on Ukraine to increase Western influence in the Caucasus. Iranian Supreme Leader Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, for example, warned Russia in July 2023 to not “neglect” the Caucasus because ““ill-intending parties…would attack the interests of Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran.”[v] Velayati also claimed that Turkey aspires to create a “pan-Turkic” belt stretching from Istanbul to Xinjiang that would “surround Iran from the north and Russia from the south” and “spread NATO’s influence in the region.”[vi]

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government has pursued closer ties with NATO and Western countries in recent months. The Armenian and French defense ministers signed an arms contract in late February 2024.[vii] Armenia’s foreign minister discussed normalizing ties with Turkey during a meeting with Turkey’s foreign minister in Antalya, Turkey, on March 1.[viii] Pashinyan separately stated that Armenia seeks to “continue and develop the existing political dialogue and expand our partnership with [NATO] and some of its members” during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Yerevan on March 19.[ix]

Raisi and Putin’s phone call on March 19 comes amid a deterioration in Russo-Armenian relations after Russia failed to support Armenia during Azerbaijan’s two-day offensive targeting Nagorno Karabakh in September 2023. Azerbaijan seized Nagorno Karabakh—an enclave in Azerbaijan previously home to a large Armenian population—during a two-day military offensive in September 2023.[x] Armenia began seeking external security assistance from parties other than Russia—Armenia's traditional security partner—after the offensive, claiming that Russia had failed to help Armenia defend Nagorno Karabakh against Azerbaijan.[xi] Armenia’s relations with Russia have further worsened in recent weeks. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced in late February 2024 that Armenia “froze” its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).[xii] The CSTO is a Russian-led security organization that, like NATO, requires member states to come to one another’s assistance if a member state is attacked.[xiii] Pashinyan later stated that the CSTO “creates a threat” to Armenia’s “security and territorial integrity.”[xiv] Pashinyan also called on Russia to remove its border guards from Armenia’s international airport in Yerevan in early March 2024.[xv]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued its raid at al Shifa Hospital on March 19.[xvi] The IDF reported on March 18 that it had intelligence that senior Hamas officials were using the area to conduct and direct attacks in the Gaza Strip.[xvii]  The IDF 162nd Division and Shin Bet led the raid targeting al Shifa Hospital and killed over 50 Palestinian fighters and detained 300 suspects during the operation.[xviii] The IDF detained Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas rocketry and intelligence personnel. Israeli forces also seized ammunition near the hospital.  Palestinian militias, including Hamas, targeted Israeli forces operating at al Shifa Hospital at least six times.[xix]

Hamas infiltration into the al Shifa Hospital area after Israel’s initial clearing operation highlights Hamas’ efforts to reestablish itself in the northern Gaza Strip. Hamas fighters conducted at least four attacks targeting Israeli forces in the al Shifa area on March 18 and 19, indicating Hamas retains some fighting forces near the hospital.[xx] The large number of suspects that Israeli forces detained at al Shifa hospital also indicate the success of Hamas and its allies in rebuilding their fighting strength in the north.[xxi] Israeli forces initially expanded clearing operations to al Shifa Hospital in November 2023, targeting a Hamas tunnel network underneath the hospital.[xxii] Israeli forces began to decrease their presence in the northern Gaza Strip in December 2023, citing the degradation of Hamas forces in the area.[xxiii] Hamas has sought to reconstitute militarily and rebuild its governing authority in the northern Gaza Strip after the Israeli drawdown. Israeli Army Radio reported in January 2024 that the Israeli military establishment assesses that Hamas is trying to restore its control over the civilian population in the northern Gaza Strip partly by rehabilitating local, Hamas-controlled police there.[xxiv]

Key Takeaways:

• The Caucasus: Iran is likely concerned that Armenia’s deteriorating relations with Russia and outreach to the West could increase NATO’s presence along its northern border. Iranian leaders previously expressed concern that the United States and NATO would exploit Russia’s focus on its invasion of Ukraine to increase their influence in the Caucasus.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, for example, warned Russia in July 2023 to not “neglect” the Caucasus because ““ill-intending parties…would attack the interests of Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
• Velayati also claimed that Turkey aspires to create a “pan-Turkic” belt that would “surround Iran from the north” and “spread NATO’s influence in the region.”
• Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued its raid at al Shifa Hospital on March 19. Hamas infiltration into the al Shifa Hospital area after Israel’s initial clearing operation highlights Hamas’ efforts to reestablish itself in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: IDF Egoz and Maglan special operations forces concluded clearing operations in Hamad, northern Khan Younis, on March 19.
• West Bank: Israeli media said on March 19 that the IDF has established a unit of engineers and intelligence personnel to locate “offensive” tunnels in the West Bank. The unit has not discovered any offensive tunnels in the West Bank at the timing of writing, according to Israeli media.
• Lebanese Hezbollah in Syria: Israel likely conducted multiple airstrikes targeting Hezbollah facilities in southern Syria.
• Lebanese Hezbollah in the Region: Senior Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa travelled to the UAE on March 19 to negotiate the release of Lebanese detainees suspected of having ties to Hezbollah, according to Lebanese media.

Iran Update, March 18, 2024

Israeli forces conducted a "high-precision operation" at al Shifa Hospital on March 18 based on intelligence that Hamas was using it for militant activity.[i] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that they had intelligence that senior Hamas officials were using the area to conduct and direct attacks in the Gaza Strip.[ii] Israeli ground forces advanced to the hospital with bulldozers and tanks and detained more than 200 Palestinians.[iii] Palestinian militias, including Hamas, engaged Israeli forces around al Shifa Hospital during the operation.[iv]

Israeli forces killed Faiq al Mabhouh, who is a senior official in the Hamas-run Interior Ministry, during the operation.[v] The IDF said that Mabhouh was the head of Hamas’ “Operations Directorate of the Internal Security Service,” while Hamas said that he was the “director of central operations of the Palestinian Police in Gaza.”[vi] The Civil Police and the Interior Ministry‘s Internal Security Forces both employ fighters from the Hamas military wing.[vii] The IDF has warned that all members of “the Hamas apparatus,” including Hamas police officers, are legitimate targets during IDF operations in the Gaza Strip.[viii] Mabhouh’s brother, Mahmoud Mabhouh, was a prominent figure in Hamas’ military wing, and Israel likely killed him in 2010.[ix]

Hamas' infiltration into the al Shifa Hospital area after Israel’s initial clearing operation highlights Hamas’ efforts to reestablish itself in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces initially expanded clearing operations to al Shifa Hospital in November 2023, targeting a Hamas tunnel network underneath the hospital.[x] Hamas has sought to reconstitute militarily and rebuild its governing authority in the northern Gaza Strip since Israeli forces reduced their presence there in December 2023. Israeli Army Radio reported in January 2024 that the Israeli military establishment believes that Hamas is trying to restore its control over the civilian population in the northern Gaza Strip partly by rehabilitating local police there.[xi]

Syrian Defense Minister Ali Mahmoud Abbas traveled to Tehran on March 16 to discuss military cooperation with senior Iranian officials. Abbas met with Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Brig. Gen. Ali Akbar Ahmadian, and Armed Forces General Staff Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri from March 17 to 18.[xii]

Abbas may have discussed Iran transferring air defense systems to Syria during his meetings. Abbas discussed recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria and how to counter them, among other issues. Iranian leaders have sought in recent years to build an integrated air defense network in Syria that could repel Israeli airstrikes and thereby help Iran entrench itself militarily in Syria.[xiii] The meetings with Ashtiani and Bagheri are particularly noteworthy in this context. Ashtiani, as defense minister, is primarily responsible for managing arms procurement and sales as well as the Iranian defense industrial base. Bagheri has previously pursued expanding air defense cooperation with Syria.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Israeli forces conducted a "high-precision operation" at al Shifa Hospital based on intelligence that Hamas was using it for militant activity.
• Syria: Syrian Defense Minister Ali Mahmoud Abbas traveled to Tehran to discuss military cooperation with senior Iranian officials.
• West Bank: Israeli police have conducted training exercises in recent weeks to prepare for possible Palestinian militia attacks into Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a one-way drone attack targeting an unspecified Israeli airbase in the Golan Heights.
• Yemen: Houthi-affiliated media claimed that the United States and the United Kingdom conducted 10 airstrikes targeting two Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.

Iran Update, March 17, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) conducted clearing operations in the northern and central Gaza Strip on March 17.
• West Bank: The IDF arrested seven wanted individuals across the West Bank on March 17. The IDF also confiscated materials needed for manufacturing improvised explosive devices during an operation in Hebron.
• Northern Israel: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 16.
• The Red Sea: The Houthis likely fired at least one unspecified missile targeting the Marshall Islands-flagged LPG tanker MADO in the Gulf of Aden on March 16. This incident marks the second time the Houthis have targeted this vessel in two days.
• Syria: The Israeli Air Force likely conducted air strikes targeting a Hezbollah ammunitions depot and other Syrian army positions along the Damascus-Homs highway on March 17.

Iran Update, March 16, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) conducted clearing operations in the northern and central Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved plans for a military operation into Rafah.
• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in at least six locations in the West Bank.

Iran Update, March 15, 2024

Unspecified Iranian officials said that Iran could “intensify its proxy war” against Israel if Israel attacks Lebanese Hezbollah, which is consistent with Iran's decades-old use of its proxies.[i] Seven Iranian, Lebanese, and regional sources told Reuters on March 14 that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani met with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in February 2024 to discuss the possibility of an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.[ii] Three of the sources told Reuters that an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah “could pressure Iran to react more forcefully" by intensifying “its proxy war” against Israel.[iii] Iran has avoided directly fighting Israel and the United States in the current war, instead using its proxies across the region to fight on Iran’s behalf. Iran has long used its regional proxies to pursue Iranian strategic objectives throughout the region. This strategy decreases the risk that Iran will face direct retaliation from its adversaries by obfuscating Iran’s role in escalation.  Iranian media reported in October 2023 that Iran formed a “joint operations room” to coordinate operations and attacks against Israel and the United States with its proxies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.[iv] Iranian media claimed that Hezbollah would use Syrian ground forces--as part of the joint operations room--to invade Israel in the event of an Israeli attack on Hezbollah. Hezbollah is closely affiliated with the Syrian Arab Army’s 1st Corps.[v]

The Iranian officials may also have been messaging Iran’s opposition to a direct confrontation with Israel to try to appease the Iranian public. An Iranian source told Reuters that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seeks to avoid a direct war with Israel.[vi] Some Iranians criticize the regime for funding Iran’s proxies and focusing on external affairs while failing to improve citizens’ lives and the economy.[vii] Many of the sociocultural, economic, and political frustrations that ignited the Mahsa Amini movement that began in September 2022 remain prevalent among the Iranian population, moreover.[viii]

Key Takeaways:

• Lebanon: Unspecified Iranian officials said that Iran could “intensify its proxy war” against Israel if Israel attacks Lebanese Hezbollah, which is consistent with Iran's decades-old use of its proxies.
• Iran has long used its regional proxies to pursue Iranian strategic objectives throughout the region. This strategy decreases the risk that Iran will face direct retaliation from its adversaries by obfuscating Iran’s role in escalation.
• Iranian media reported in October 2023 that Iran formed a “joint operations room” to coordinate operations and attacks against Israel and the United States with its proxies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
• Iranian media claimed that Hezbollah would use Syrian ground forces—as part of the joint operations room—to invade Israel in the event of an Israeli attack on Hezbollah. Hezbollah is closely affiliated with the Syrian Arab Army’s 1st Corps.
• The Telegraph reported that five Iranian-controlled, US-sanctioned container ships are using European ports to disguise weapons shipments to Lebanese Hezbollah.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Zahra, south of Gaza City.
• Negotiations: Hamas submitted a ceasefire proposal and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange to international mediators.
• Yemen: Houthi fighters conducted at least three attacks targeting civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
• Syria: Israel likely conducted a drone strike targeting a truck transporting weapons for Iranian-backed militias near Albu Kamal, Syria.
• Iran: The G7 countries warned Iran that it should not transfer missiles to Russia.
• West Bank: Tens of thousands of Palestinian worshippers gathered peacefully at the al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem for Ramadan prayers, despite repeated Hamas calls to “defend” the mosque.

Iran Update, March 14, 2024

Hamas reportedly killed the head of a local clan in Gaza City on March 13 likely as part of Hamas’ effort to reassert its authority in the northern Gaza Strip.[i] Hamas targeted the head and other members of the armed Dughmush clan amid local accusations that the clan stole humanitarian aid and cooperated with Israel.[ii] The clan responded to the killing by vowing to retaliate and declaring Hamas members and positions as “legitimate target[s].”[iii] Hamas denied reports that its forces killed the clan members.[iv]

Hamas has sought to reconstitute militarily and rebuild its governing authority in the northern Gaza Strip since Israeli forces reduced their presence there in December 2023. CTP-ISW has reported extensively on how Hamas fighters have infiltrated areas in the northern strip that Israeli forces previously cleared. Israeli Army Radio reported in January 2023 that the Israeli military establishment believes that Hamas is trying to restore its control over the civilian population in the northern Gaza Strip partly by rehabilitating local police there.[v] The Civil Police and the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry‘s Internal Security Forces both employ fighters from the Hamas military wing.[vi] The killing of the members of the Dughmush clan further demonstrates that Hamas fighters remain present in at least some areas of the northern strip.

Hamas may be targeting political opposition as part of its effort to consolidate its power in the northern Gaza Strip. An Israeli academic reported that Hamas killed the Dughmush members after they expressed readiness to be part of a new administration in the Gaza Strip.[vii] Tension between Hamas and the Dughmush clan is not unprecedented, as they have periodically clashed since Hamas took power in the Gaza Strip in 2007. The clan reportedly has affiliations with Salafi-jihadi groups as well as organized crime and arms trading in the Gaza Strip. Hamas reportedly warned Palestinians against cooperating with Israel earlier this week and that Hamas would treat those who did with “an iron fist.”[viii] Hamas has a long history of violently suppressing political opposition in the Gaza Strip.[ix]

Hamas’ killing of the Dughmush clan members risks further eroding the security situation there as humanitarian aid enters the northern Gaza Strip. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on March 13 that “criminal gangs” and “ordinary civilians” are resorting to looting humanitarian aid.[x] He warned that lawlessness, insecurity, and desperation remain hurdles to delivering aid to Gazans. Intercommunal violence within the Gaza Strip between Hamas and clans, such as the Dughmush, could further threaten the secure delivery of aid into the area. These challenges could become particularly acute if Hamas and its rivals compete with one another to control the flow of aid in the strip. Israel is currently deciding whether to open a crossing directly into the northern Gaza Strip based on as assessment of how securely the convoys can reach civilians.[xi]

Key Takeaways:

• Northern Gaza Strip: Hamas reportedly killed the head of a local clan in Gaza City likely as part of Hamas’ effort to reassert its authority in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in several sectors of Khan Younis.
• Political Developments: Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas appointed the current chairman of the Palestinian Investment Fund, Mohammad Mustafa, as the new PA prime minister. Abbas tasked him with forming a new government that will seek to rebuild the Gaza Strip after the war.
• Yemen: The Houthi movement launched an anti-ship ballistic missile targeting an unspecified vessel in the Red Sea. US CENTCOM reported that US forces destroyed four drones and a surface-to-air missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
• Iraq: Head of the Iraqi National Masses Party Ahmed Abdullah al Jubouri nominated Badr Mahmoud al Fahal for governor of Salah ad Din Province.
• West Bank: Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.

Iran Update, March 13, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: Israeli media reported that the IDF Navy fired at two suspected Palestinian fighters in scuba gear approaching the border between the northern Gaza Strip and Israel.
• Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF 98th Division expanded clearing operations in the northern and eastern Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: Saudi state-affiliated media claimed that Hamas agreed to a modified US ceasefire proposal on March 12, which Hamas later denied.
• Iran: Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani claimed on March 13 that Iranian defense exports have increased by five times since 2022.
• Yemen: The Houthi movement launched a close-range ballistic missile targeting the USS Laboon in the Red Sea.
• West Bank: IDF Army Radio reported that the IDF completed a brigade-sized operation in Jenin.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting an official in Hamas’ military wing, Hadi Ali Mustafa, near Tyre, Lebanon.

Iran Update, March 12, 2024

• Northern and Central Gaza Strip: The IDF 162nd Division continued to operate in the northern and central Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias continued to conduct a deliberate defense of Hamad neighborhood, northern Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: The Qatari foreign affairs minister said that Israel and Hamas are “nowhere near a deal” regarding a ceasefire deal and prisoner-for-hostage exchange.
• IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani alluded to the need for Hamas to “negotiate firmly” in the ceasefire negotiations, possibly indicating support for Hamas’ maximalist position.
• West Bank: IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani claimed that the Israeli fear of Palestinian operations in the West Bank “reached its peak” in the current Persian calendar year (March 2023-March 2024) during an interview with Iranian state media.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah launched over 100 rockets targeting Israeli forces in the Golan Heights.
• The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure in Beqaa and Baalbek Governorates.
• Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a drone attack targeting Ben Gurion Airport in Lod, Israel.
• Iraq and Syria: The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) assessed that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will “almost certainly” resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria
• Yemen: The Houthi movement launched two anti-ship missiles on March 11 that targeted a Singaporean-owned, Liberian-flagged merchant vessel in the Red Sea.
• US CENTCOM confirmed that it conducted preemptive strikes targeting 18 Houthi anti-ship missiles and an unmanned underwater vessel in Houthi-controlled Yemen.

Iran Update, March 11, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters mortared Israeli forces in Gaza City at least four times.
• Central Gaza Strip: The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting Hamas’ military deputy commander, Marwan Issa, in Nuseirat.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh presented Hamas’ comprehensive demands in ceasefire and hostage negotiations in a speech marking the start of Ramadan.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least eight times.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Syria: Iranian officials expressed their displeasure with the Syrian Bashar al Assad regime’s failure to implement its economic agreements with Iran.
• Yemen: Houthi-affiliated media reported that the United States and United Kingdom conducted airstrikes targeting three locations in Yemen.
• Iran: Russia, China, and Iran will hold the joint Maritime Security Belt-2024 naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman between March 11-15.

Iran Update, March 10, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces operating in southern Gaza City.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis.
• US Operations: The US Army sent a vessel to the Mediterranean Sea with the first load of equipment to establish a humanitarian port off the Gaza Strip.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least three times in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least 13 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.

Iran Update, March 9, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters defended against Israeli raids in several sectors of the northern Gaza Strip.
• Central Gaza Strip: The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) continued to conduct clearing operations in the central Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: Israeli Mossad Chief Dadi Barnea told CIA Director Bill Burns that Hamas is not interested in a ceasefire deal and is intent to “burn the area” during Ramadan.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Israel: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted two drone attacks targeting Israeli military and civilian infrastructure in Haifa and in the Golan Heights.
• Yemen: The Houthis fired naval missiles at Singapore-flagged, owned, and operated vessel M/V Propel Fortune in the Gulf of Aden.

Iran Update, March 8, 2024

The United States will construct a temporary pier on the coast of the Gaza Strip to facilitate the arrival and distribution of humanitarian aid. US President Joe Biden said during the State of the Union address on March 7 that he ordered the US military to lead an “emergency mission” to establish the pier.[1] Biden stressed that US servicemembers would not operate on the ground in the Gaza Strip. The United States will conduct a Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore (JLOTS). A JLOTS involves creating a floating pier for ship-to-shore operations.[2] The Pentagon press secretary said that the pier will be able to receive two million meals per day.[3] The secretary also noted that the pier facilities could take two months to become fully operational and will require up to 1,000 US military personnel to complete it.[4] Biden told reporters on March 8 that Israel would secure the temporary pier.[5] Thousands of Palestinians have surrounded aid shipments in the past, which underscores the need for security to ensure the fair, safe, and organized distribution of aid.[6]

The European Union announced on March 8 that it is planning to open an emergency maritime aid corridor from Cyprus to the Gaza Strip sometime between March 8 and 10 as part of a joint effort with its allies, including the United States.[7] The EU and the Cypriot Government said that all the efforts to open a maritime corridor will be “closely coordinated with Israel.”[8] The Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson welcomed the maritime corridor plan, noting that the aid must go through ”security checks...in accordance with Israeli standards.“[9] An anonymous Israeli official said that under the latest plan, UAE-donated aid would first go to Cyprus. Unspecified authorities would then inspect the aid before ships transport it to the Gaza Strip coast.[10]

CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla said that US forces have not deterred the Houthis during a Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing on March 7.[11] Kurilla added that in his estimation, the United States will need to impose a ”cost” on Iran to stop the Houthis from continuing attacks.[12] Kurilla highlighted the importance of targeting Iran’s ability to resupply the Houthis.

Kurilla also said that US airstrikes on February 2 and February 7 deterred Iran or its proxies and partners from continuing attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Kurilla reported that there has not been an attack on US forces in Iraq or Syria in 32 days.[13] US forces struck 85 Iranian-backed targets in Iraq and Syria on February 2 and killed a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander in Baghdad on February 7 who was responsible for the deaths of US servicemembers. Kurilla emphasized that deterrence is temporary.[14] Iranian-backed militias have conducted attacks targeting US service members prior to October 7. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq can resume attacks at a time, place, and for reasons of their choosing, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.[15] ran has continued to send arms and funds to its militias despite the pause in attacks.

Kurilla also said that Iran continues to support Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah and armed groups in the West Bank.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: The United States will construct a temporary pier on the coast of the Gaza Strip to facilitate the arrival and distribution of humanitarian aid.
• The European Union announced that it is planning to open an emergency maritime aid corridor from Cyprus to the Gaza Strip sometime between March 8 and 10 as part of a joint effort with its allies, including the United States.
• US Military Operations in the Middle East: CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla said that US forces have not deterred the Houthis during a Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing. Kurilla also said that US airstrikes on February 2 and February 7 deterred Iran or its proxies and partners from continuing attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Kurilla emphasized that deterrence is temporary.
• Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces conducted a clearing operation to reclear Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Iran: Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Omani Foreign Affairs Minister Badr al Busaidi.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Israeli news reported that the IDF ordered Brig. Gen. Moshe Tamir to draft plans for a possible Israeli ground operation into southern Lebanon.
• Yemen: US CENTCOM intercepted three drones that the Houthis launched toward the Gulf of Aden.

Iran Update, March 7, 2024

Western media reported on March 7 that the United States will establish a temporary port in the Gaza Strip to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid.[i]  US President Joe Biden is expected to announce the project during his State of the Union address on March 7. White House officials disclosed that the United States plans to build a temporary port off the coast of the Gaza Strip before moving the structure closer to shore. Western reporting noted that the project would require up to thousands of US service members stationed off the Mediterranean coast. Palestinian militias have previously condemned US humanitarian efforts in the Gaza Strip as insufficient and creating chaos.[ii] CTP-ISW will follow up with additional details on the proposed temporary port in future updates.

Iranian military and security leaders are increasingly discussing the need to expand the Iranian military presence around the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea. Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi—a senior military adviser to the Iranian supreme leader—stated on March 6 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy and Aerospace Force should “focus” on the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea.[iii] Safavi described the Mediterranean Sea as part of Iran’s strategic depth and that Tehran must accordingly “increase [its] strategic depth [by] 5,000 kilometers,” which would extend to the Strait of Gibraltar.[iv] Safavi’s remarks come after IRGC Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi threatened in December 2023 that Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” could someday disrupt maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea and around the Strait of Gibraltar.[v] The Iranian desire to develop a military presence, especially a naval one, around the Mediterranean Sea and its periphery is not entirely new, as senior military officials have discussed the idea since at least 2016.[vi]

The remarks from Safavi and Naghdi are noteworthy, nevertheless, given recent Iranian efforts in the area. Western media reported on March 3 that Iran requested Sudanese permission to establish a permanent naval base on the Red Sea, which would support Iranian out-of-area naval operations and attacks on international shipping.[vii] Separately, Israel was likely responsible for an airstrike that killed an IRGC Navy colonel around the coastal city of Baniyas, Syria, on March 1.[viii] An Israeli social media account observed that the naval officer may have worked on coastal missile defenses and/or electronic warfare.[ix]

Iran would probably use an expanding military presence around the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea to threaten commercial traffic, as Iran has long done so around the Persian Gulf and is currently supporting Houthi attacks on global commerce. Iran has invested in recent years in building surface vessels that are capable of hosting fast attack craft, drones, helicopters, and missiles. These vessels would not likely survive conventional engagements against the US Navy or other modern militaries—but they are optimized for the sort of commerce raiding that has long been a feature of Iranian regional strategy.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—appears to have refocused its attacks to target primarily Israel rather than US forces for the moment. The group has claimed four attacks targeting Israel in the first week of March, compared to three attacks targeting Israel in the month of February.[x] The group has contrastingly not claimed any attacks targeting US forces since February 4.[xi] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq described its three most recent attacks as part of the “second phase of operations to. . . support our people in Gaza.”[xii] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders have praised the Islamic Resistance in Iraq attack targeting Kiryat Shmona Airport on March 6 as the beginning of this second phase, which involves targeting Israeli airports and ports.[xiii] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq released a statement on March 6 stating that it means to expel US forces from Iraq and support Palestinian militias by continuing attacks targeting Israel until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.[xiv]

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed three drone attacks targeting industrial and military locations inside Israel on March 5-7.[xv] The IDF reported on March 4 that it intercepted a drone entering from Syria.[xvi] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed three attacks in February 2023 targeting unspecified Israeli targets near Eilat, the Golan Heights, and the Dead Sea.[xvii]
• Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada Secretary General Abu Alaa al Walai called for a second phase of attacks targeting Israel on January 23.[xviii] Walai specifically called for targeting Israel’s ports. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed on March 3 that the group launched drones targeting the Haifa port.[xix] Israeli journalists reported that the IDF intercepted a drone near Haifa on February 29.[xx]

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed on March 7 that it launched drones targeting an IDF military airport near Safed, Israel.[xxi] The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) separately claimed on March 7 that it intercepted a drone that resembles drones previously launched by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.[xxii] A Syrian social media account stated that the intercepted drone was an Iranian-made Shahed-101 and speculated that the SAA could have intercepted the drone by mistake.[xxiii]

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Western media reported that the United States will establish a temporary port in the Gaza Strip to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid.
• Iran: Iranian military and security leaders are increasingly discussing the need to expand the Iranian military presence around the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq appears to have refocused its attacks to target primarily Israel rather than US forces for the moment.
• West Bank: Unidentified Palestinian fighters detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device targeting Israeli forces around Tubas.
• Iraq: Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki said that the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias must refrain attacking US forces so that Baghdad can negotiate a timeline for the US withdrawal.
• Yemen: Houthi-affiliated media claimed that the United States and the United Kingdom conducted two airstrikes targeting Hudaydah.

Iran Update, March 6, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Iran and the Israel-Hamas War: IRGC Quds Force Commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani said on March 6 that Iran’s proxies and partners have taken a more “offensive stance” in the Israel-Hamas war, which frames the war in terms consistent with Iran’s regional military doctrine.
• Iran and the Axis aim to seize the operational initiative to dictate the tempo and terms of action in conflict and force Iran’s adversaries to react constantly.
• IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami said in 2022 that Palestinian militias needed to focus on successive offensive ground operations into Israel instead of defensive, static wars using their rocket systems.
• Yemen: The Houthis launched anti-ship missiles on March 6 that targeted a Greek-operated Barbados-flagged bulk-carrier in the Gulf of Aden and damaged the ship, killing two crewmembers and injuring at least six more.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias claimed most of their attacks targeting Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip in southern Gaza City on March 6.
• Negotiations: Hamas said on March 6 that it will continue ceasefire negotiations and claimed that it has “shown flexibility” in the talks. Egyptian officials with knowledge of the talks told the Wall Street Journal on March 6 that Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamal prevented Hamas from walking away from negotiations.

Iran Update, March 5, 2024

Iranian hardline factions are expected to retain their majority in parliament.[1] The majority of Tehran province’s 14 confirmed candidates were hardliners.[2] Incumbent hardline Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was re-elected to parliament for Tehran province.[3] Parliamentarians will vote for the next parliament speaker after run-off elections conclude in late April or early May.[4] Forty-five candidates will compete in the run-off election.[5]

Iran’s March 1 Parliament elections had the lowest voter turnout of any election in the history of the Islamic Republic.[6] Approximately 25 million Iranians out of 61 million eligible voters voted for 290 candidates for Parliament and 88 candidates for the Assembly of Experts.[7] The Assembly of Experts is the body responsible for choosing the supreme leader’s successor. Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi reported an official voter turnout of 41%.[8] This figure is likely inflated, given the Iranian regime’s historical tendency to exaggerate voter turnout.[9]  Iran reported a 43% voter turnout in its 2020 parliamentary election.[10]

US President Joe Biden warned on March 5 that without a ceasefire “the situation in Jerusalem will become very dangerous during Ramadan.”[11] Biden said that Hamas is the impediment to a ceasefire deal, not Israel.

Hamas’ senior representative to Lebanon Osama Hamdan confirmed that Hamas negotiators gave Qatari and Egyptian officials a response to the Paris ceasefire proposal “over the past two days” but that the group is prepared to continue fighting.[12] Hamdan stated that Hamas affirmed its conditions for a ceasefire, which are the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced civilians to the northern Gaza Strip, and the supply of adequate aid, relief, and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Hamdan continued to blame the Israeli prime minister for the lack of a ceasefire. A Hamas Telegram channel posted on March 5 an undated quote from another senior Hamas leader that reiterated that the group would not discuss a hostage-for-prisoner exchange before a ceasefire, the total Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, reconstruction of the Strip, and the return of displaced persons to their homes.[13]  Israeli media reported on March 4 that Hamas recently asked for Israel to release more of its high-level prisoners as part of the ceasefire agreement.[14] Western and Israeli media previously reported during the week of January 31 that Hamas demanded the release of its elite Nukhba special forces and Palestinian political faction leaders.[15] The Nukhba forces took part in the October 7 attacks.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met US envoy Amos Hochstein on March 5 and warned that Hezbollah attacks are pushing Israel towards “a decision point regarding military action in Lebanon.”[16] Gallant reiterated that Israel is committed to political efforts to reach an agreement to resolve the ongoing hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. Gallant issued a similar warning on February 7 that the Israeli government could invade Lebanon in response to continuing Hezbollah attacks.[17] 

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Elections: Iranian hardline factions are expected to retain their majority in parliament. Iran’s March 1 Parliament elections had the lowest voter turnout of any election in the history of the Islamic Republic.
• Ceasefire Negotiations: US President Joe Biden warned on March 5 that without a ceasefire “the situation in Jerusalem will become very dangerous during Ramadan.” Biden said that Hamas is the impediment to a ceasefire deal, not Israel.
• Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan stated that Hamas affirmed its conditions for a ceasefire, which are the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced civilians to the northern Gaza Strip, and the supply of adequate aid, relief, and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.
• Lebanon: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met US envoy Amos Hochstein on March 5 and warned that Hezbollah attacks are pushing Israel towards “a decision point regarding military action in Lebanon.” Gallant reiterated that Israel is committed to political efforts to reach an agreement to resolve the ongoing hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border.
• Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias claimed an anomalously low number of attacks targeting Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip on March 5. CTP-ISW is considering two factors to explain the sharp decrease in attack claims.
• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF)’s transition to the third phase of its ground operation has decreased the number of targets Hamas and its allies can attack during a given period. There are currently fewer Israeli forces deep in northern Gaza and thus fewer targets for the militias to attack.
• Palestinian militias may be experiencing communications difficulties.

Iran Update, March 4, 2024

Iran reportedly requested Sudanese permission to establish a permanent naval base on the Red Sea coast, which would support Iranian out-of-area naval operations and attacks on international shipping. The Wall Street Journal reported the Iranian request on March 3, citing a senior Sudanese intelligence official.[i] Ahmad Hasan Mohamed—an intelligence adviser to the Sudanese military leader—said that Iran offered “a helicopter-carrying warship” in exchange for Sudan allowing Iran to establish the base. Mohamed stated that Iran wanted the base to gather intelligence on maritime traffic around the Suez Canal and Israel and to station warships at the base. The Wall Street Journal report is consistent with Iranian leaders advocating for building a naval base along the east African coast in recent years.[ii] Mohamed added that Sudan rejected the Iranian request. Both the Iranian and Sudanese foreign affairs ministries have refuted the Wall Street Journal report.[iii] The report follows Sudanese Armed Forces-affiliated Foreign Affairs Minister Ali al Sadiq Ali traveling to Tehran and meeting with senior Iranian officials in early February.[iv]

The Iranian request to establish a naval base in Sudan is part of growing military cooperation between the two countries. Western media previously reported in January that Iran had recently supplied the Sudanese Armed Forces with Mohajer-6 multirole drones.[v] The Iranian effort to establish a naval base likely reflects how Tehran views its defense exports as a means of facilitating the expansion of its overall military influence abroad.

Iran may be attempting to compete with other rival Gulf Arab states in Sudan. The United Arab Emirates is the main backer of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) owing to various ties between the RSF head (Hemedti) and the emirates.[vi] Abu Dhabi has invested in Sudan as part of its larger strategic effort to expand its influence along the Red Sea with friendly states and client ports.[vii] The United Arab Emirates has funded and supplied the RSF with weapons and used neighboring Chad as a logistics hub for these efforts.[viii]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iran reportedly requested Sudanese permission to establish a permanent naval base on the Red Sea coast, which would support Iranian out-of-area naval operations and attacks on international shipping.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters defended against Israeli clearing operations in the northern and central Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued conducting clearing operations around northern Khan Younis.
• Negotiations: Hamas reportedly made the return of civilians to the northern Gaza Strip a priority in ceasefire negotiations with Israel.
• Iraq: Former Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohammad al Halbousi discussed unspecified bilateral cooperation with US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski and other US officials.
• Yemen: The Houthis launched anti-ship missiles that damaged the Liberian-flagged MSC Sky II commercial vessel in the Gulf of Aden. The Houthi military spokesperson claimed that the group launched an unspecified number of anti-ship ballistic missiles and drones targeting US warships in the Red Sea.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• West Bank: Israeli media reported that Shin Bet arrested four “ISIS-inspired” Palestinians who planned to attack the IDF near Hebron.

Iran Update, March 3, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) concluded a two-week long operation in Zaytoun neighborhood, southeastern Gaza City on March 3. The continued Palestinian militia attacks demonstrate that Israeli forces have not fully cleared Zaytoun and Palestinian militias in southern Gaza City likely retain some capacity to fight despite the official end of the re-clearing effort.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces expanded clearing operations in Khan Younis on March 3.
• Ceasefire Negotiations: Hamas responded to the most recent ceasefire proposal with demands for a permanent ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
• Northern Israel: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a drone attack targeting a chemical plant at the Haifa Port on March 1.
• Red Sea: Italian destroyer Caio Duilio intercepted an unspecified drone flying towards the ship in the Red Sea on March 2.

Iran Update, March 2, 2024

• Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to operate in the northern and central Gaza Strip on March 2. Hamas targeted Israeli forces in Zaytoun with rocket-propelled grenades and explosively-formed
• Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF 89th Commando Brigade (98th Division) continued to conduct clearing operations in western Khan Younis.
• Humanitarian Aid: The United States airdropped humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip for the first time on March 2.
• Yemen: US CENTCOM conducted a preemptive strike targeting a surface-to-air missile that Houthi fighters had prepared to launch from Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory into the Red Sea.

Iran Update, March 1, 2024

Iran held separate elections for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts on March 1.[i] These elections will likely preserve and possibly even reinforce hardliner influence in the Iranian regime. Parliament is the primary legislative body in the Iranian regime, though it is a relatively weak institution in the Iranian political landscape. One of Parliament’s most important roles is selecting a parliament speaker, who will serve ex officio on more prominent regime policymaking bodies, such as the Supreme National Security Council, Supreme Economic Coordination Council, and Supreme Cultural Revolution Council. Iranian parliamentarians serve four-year teams. Hardline political factions currently dominate Parliament and will likely continue doing so after the votes are counted. The Assembly of Experts is an Iranian regime entity constitutionally responsible for monitoring the supreme leader and selecting his successor.[ii] Assembly members serve eight-year terms and are almost exclusively senior Shia clerics.

The Iranian regime is continuing to engineer national elections to consolidate hardline influence in the political establishment. The Guardian Council—a regime body responsible for supervising elections and vetting candidates—barred many moderate and reformist candidates from competing in the March 1 Assembly of Experts and parliamentary elections.[iii] The Guardian Council barred former moderate President Hassan Rouhani from running for reelection to the Assembly of Experts, for example.[iv] The Guardian Council previously disqualified 80 percent of candidates in the 2016 Assembly of Experts elections and 49 percent of candidates in the 2020 parliamentary elections.[v] The Guardian Council often disqualifies moderate and reformist figures to guarantee hardliner victories in these races. The Guardian Council spokesperson claimed on February 28 that the council had disqualified only 25 percent of parliamentary candidates for the most recent vote, although it is unclear how accurate this number is.[vi] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei personally approves directly or indirectly the members of the 12-person Guardian Council, suggesting that the council operates with the backing of the supreme leader.

Voter turnout appeared to hit a record low, likely reflecting the population’s growing disillusionment with the regime. Initial reports indicate that voter participation was around 27 percent nationally and 12 percent in Tehran on March 1.[vii]  A voter turnout of approximately 30 percent would mark a record low for public participation in parliamentary elections since the Iranian revolution. Voter participation in parliamentary elections previously reached a record low of 42.5 percent in 2020. Voter participation in the presidential election in 2021 similarly hit a record low of 48.8 percent.[viii] These recent numbers are particularly striking given that electoral participation has historically been high in Iran over the past few decades.[ix] Regime officials have repeatedly called on the population to participate in the elections, likely reflecting concerns about low voter turnout amid calls for boycotting the elections.[x]

This year’s Assembly of Experts election is uniquely significant, as it could very well oversee the succession Iran’s next supreme leader. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is currently 84 years old and would be 92 by the time of the next Assembly of Experts election in 2032. This cohort of the Assembly of Experts will at least formally choose Khamenei’s successor if he dies or otherwise leaves his post before then.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iran held separate elections for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts. These elections will likely preserve and possibly even reinforce hardliner influence in the Iranian regime. Voter turnout appeared to hit a record low, likely reflecting the population’s growing disillusionment with the regime. This year’s Assembly of Experts election is uniquely significant, as it could very well oversee the succession Iran’s next supreme leader.
• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias defended against Israeli operations in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in western and eastern Khan Younis.
• Political Negotiations: An unspecified senior Israeli official reported that Israel will not continue ceasefire negotiations until Hamas provides information on the status of the hostages it holds in the Gaza Strip.
• West Bank: Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters in 13 locations across the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Syria: Israel was likely responsible for an airstrike that killed an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy officer in Baniyas, Syria.
• Yemen: US CENTCOM intercepted a drone over the Red Sea and conducted two preemptive strikes targeting six mobile, anti-ship cruise missiles in Houthi-controlled Yemen.