Ukraine Conflict Update 15

Institute for the Study of War, Russia Team  

with the Critical Threats Project, AEI

March 4

CTP and ISW published its most recent Russian campaign assessment at 3:00 pm EST on March 4.

This daily synthetic product covers key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Key Takeaways March 4

• Russian forces have advanced rapidly on the eastern outskirts of Kyiv, likely from the Sumy axis, and may attempt to encircle and/or attack the capital on the east bank of the Dnipro in the coming 24-48 hours.
• Russian troops did not press a ground offensive against Kharkiv in the last 24 hours but have instead diverted forces to the west and southeast, likely supporting efforts against Kyiv and in and around Donbas respectively.
• Russian troops have surrounded Mariupol and are attacking it brutally to destroy it or compel its capitulation.
• Russian forces have renewed their ground advance on Mykolayiv, having secured Kherson city, likely to set conditions for a further attack toward Odesa. Russian naval infantry are likely poised to conduct amphibious landings near Odesa when Russian forces have secured or are close to securing a reliable ground route from Crimea to Odesa.
• The Kremlin dramatically limited Russia’s already isolated domestic information environment and criminalized unfavorable coverage of the war in Ukraine on March 4, setting conditions to improve the domestic efficacy of its information operations.
• Ukraine is attempting to increase the flow of information about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to Russian citizens to increase domestic Russian opposition to the war.
• The Kremlin set conditions to justify potential Russian conscriptions and more aggressive operations in Ukraine.
• The Russian Defense Ministry said foreign citizens fighting for Ukraine will not be considered legal combatants and will not be protected under international law.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reiterated that Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine but has likely already committed Belarusian troops.
• NATO rejected Ukraine’s request to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
• Russia has not yet followed through on its agreement with Ukraine to establish the humanitarian corridors that would enable civilian supply and evacuation.
• The US Department of Defense established a deconfliction line with its Russian counterpart to prevent accidental escalation near the Ukrainian and Belarusian borders.
• Finland and Sweden continued high-level discussions on NATO membership and multilateral defense measures.

Key Events March 3, 4:00 pm EST – March 4, 4:00 pm EST

Military Events:

Russian forces continue their focus on encircling Kyiv. The western envelopment remains bogged down, but Russian troops have moved more rapidly from the east and are arriving in the capital’s outskirts on the Sumy axis. The speed of the advance from the east is likely to slow as Russian forces leave sparsely-inhabited and flat terrain and enter the more congested and built-up eastern suburbs. Russian mechanized forces around Kharkiv appear to be supporting operations toward the east and west of the city, likely weakening their ability to encircle or seize it.

The Russian military has concentrated considerable combat power around Mariupol to encircle and ultimately seize or destroy it. The purpose of this effort is not entirely clear. The capture or destruction of Mariupol will not likely materially affect the outcome of the war, whose decisive operations are more than 600 kilometers northwest around Kyiv. Russian forces have also renewed their ground offensive west from Crimea toward Odesa, currently focusing on advancing from Kherson to Mykolayiv, and seized the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant north of Crimea. The continued pursuit of objectives along three diverging axes by the same group of forces in Crimea has hindered the Russian military’s ability to generate decisive effects on any of the three.

Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

1. Main effort—Kyiv: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis consist of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and supporting efforts along the Chernihiv and Sumy axes to encircle it from the northeast and east. Russian forces are continuing their grinding effort to envelop Kyiv from the west, making limited gains but continuing to suffer notable setbacks. The Russians have been more successful in their advance on Kyiv from the east, especially on the axis from Sumy via Konotop and Nyzhin. Russian forces are unlikely to complete the encirclement of Kyiv on the west side without significant reinforcements as long as Ukrainian defenses continue to hold as they have done over the past few days. Russian forces have focused on Sumy rather than on their Chernihiv axis over the last 24 hours. The rapid advance of Russian forces on the Sumy axis will likely slow as Russian troops enter the more built-up and congested areas of eastern Kyiv and its suburbs.
2. Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv: Russian forces around Kharkiv appear to have focused on continued bombardment of the city combined with drives to the east and west bypassing it in support of other efforts rather than attempting to take it. Russian troops have not encircled the city or launched renewed ground offensives against it in the past 24 hours. The likelihood of a renewed Russian ground offensive to take Kharkiv in the next 24-48 hours is unclear, as is the likely outcome of any such attempt. Russian forces, for now, appear to be de-emphasizing the seizure of Kharkiv itself in favor of supporting other efforts.
3. Supporting effort 2—Mariupol: Russian forces still encircle Mariupol and are continuing an artillery, rocket, and missile barrage on the city while concentrating ground forces likely in preparation to seize and secure it within the next 24-48 hours. Russian and proxy forces will likely secure and/or destroy Mariupol within the coming days.
4. Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward: Russian forces have taken advantage of having consolidated control of Kherson city to launch a renewed offensive toward the city of Mykolayiv, which houses the headquarters of the Ukrainian navy. Ukrainian efforts to stop the renewed Russian advance have had limited success thus far, although it remains to be seen how well Russian forces will be able to retain their momentum as they enter the dense and congested areas of Mykolayiv itself. Russian ground forces likely must secure most of Mykolayiv city if they are to secure a key bridge to establish a reliable ground line of communication between Crimea and Odesa. Russian naval infantry may be waiting for ground forces to secure Mykolayiv’s bridge before attempting an amphibious landing near Odesa.

Russian forces attacked and captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear powerplant and surrounding areas after a firefight with Ukrainian forces that caused a fire resulting in a damaged nuclear reactor. The Kremlin falsely blamed Ukraine for attacking Russian forces near the plant. Russian forces seized Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in a direct assault on March 4, causing a fire in the nuclear complex. The Kremlin likely targeted the plant to gain the ability to shut down a substantial portion of Ukraine’s electrical grid; Zaporizhzhia supplies about half of Ukraine’s total electricity.[1] The Kremlin attempted to deflect international outrage by falsely reframing the incident as a dangerous Ukrainian attack on a Russian-controlled facility while Ukrainian leadership leveraged the Russian aggression to call for additional NATO intervention in the conflict.

• Plant status: More than half of Ukraine’s nuclear reactors are offline after Russian forces seized the Zaporizhzhia powerplant on March 4.[2] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said in a March 4 press conference that there was no radiation release or damage to the reactors.[3] Grossi stated that “no security or safety systems have been compromised near the reactors themselves” and that technical operations are continuing normally.[4] Russian forces took control of Zaporizhzhia on March 4. The head of nuclear power generator Energoatom, Petro Kotin, claimed via a March 4 Telegram that Russian forces are forcing Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant employees to work at gunpoint. [5]
• Russian framing: Russian Ministry of Defense spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov falsely claimed that a Ukrainian sabotage group attacked a mobile patrol of the Russian Guard adjacent to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the early morning of March 4, resulting in a firefight, and set fire to the facility as they fled.[6] The fire sparked international alarm after it caused a fire in the administrative building and the training center, resulting in damage “to the structure of the reactor compartment” and one of six reactors.[7] Konashenkov falsely claimed that the nuclear plant had been under Russian control since February 28, and Russia claimed to have secured Enerhodar on March 2.[8] Konashenkov again claimed around 4:35 am local time on March 4 that Russian forces took control of Enerhodar city, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and the territory adjacent to it.[9] Russian forces likely forced Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov to release under duress an awkward March 4 video stating that Russian forces did not fire live rounds at Ukrainian civilians and that any rounds people may have heard or seen were blanks.[10] Unconfirmed March 4 reports described Russian forces patrolling the streets of Enerhodar and destroying caches of Molotov cocktails.[11]
• Ukrainian framing: Ukrainian officials confirmed Russia’s seizure of Zaporizhzhia to the New York Times on March 4.[12] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of conducting a “premediated” terror attack that involved intentionally firing at nuclear reactors on March 4.[13] The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that 90 Russian units belonging to Chechen leader Ramazan Kadyrovwith amassed near Enerhodar with thermal imagers and night-vision gear prior to the engagement.[14] Workers at the power plant allegedly told Ukrainian media that Chechen forces control the nuclear facility as of March 4 and have placed explosives near the reactors.[15] ISW cannot independently confirm those claims. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his request to NATO to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine and said that only a “closed sky” over Ukraine would guarantee Russia would not bomb nuclear installations.[16] Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs official Vadim Denisenko stated at 3:28 pm local time on March 4 that Ukraine still controls Zaporizhzhia and “the Ukrainian flag remains above the [Enerhodar] city council building,” but that Russian forces control the perimeter of Zaporizhzhia.[17] Denisenko’s claim that Ukraine still controls Zaporizhzhya is likely false.

Russian Activity

The Kremlin dramatically limited Russia’s already isolated domestic information environment and criminalized unfavorable coverage of the war in Ukraine on March 4, setting conditions to improve the domestic efficacy of its information operations. Russia could also leverage the information blackout to commit additional atrocities in Ukraine without further eroding domestic Russian support of the invasion.

Russian mass media censor Roskomnadzor blocked several Western media outlets for spreading “fake news” on March 4. The blocked sites include Facebook, Twitter, Voice of America, BBC, Deutsche Welle, Meduza, and Radio Free Europe. The Kremlin also blocked the Apple Store and Google Play platforms, likely to prevent the installation of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to bypass media blackouts.[18] BBC and Voice of America announced that they will continue to provide accurate Russian-language news coverage despite the blocks.[19]  Roskomnadzor blocked the sites due to their alleged distribution of  ”fake” information about “the essence of the special military operation in Ukraine, its form, the methods of combat operations (attacks on the population, strikes on civilian infrastructure), the Russian armed forces’ losses and civilian victims.”[20] Independent Russian media outlet Znak announced it was preemptively suspending its work and closing its site due to media censorship on March 4.[21] Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta stated it would remove all material related to the Russian military in Ukraine due to censorship restrictions.[22] Regulators additionally shut down independent Russian news outlet TV Rain.[23] TV Rain ended its final broadcast with its staff resigning en-mass and saying “no to war” on March 3.[24]

The Russian legislature consolidated censorship measures on March 4 and unanimously passed a bill criminalizing “fake news” about Russian military activities in Ukraine.[25] Putin signed the bill into law on March 4.[26] NPR reported that “under the new bill, prison sentences for spreading news that discredits the Russian military would range from up to three years for members of the public, five to 10 years if the offender used an official position or if their actions had extreme motives, and 10 to 15 years if the consequences are deemed to be serious.”[27] The fines may cost up to 1.5 million rubles ($14,000).[28] Russian law enforcement separately conducted a search of the independent human rights groups Memorial International and Civic Assistance, both of which help migrants and refugees, on March 4.[29]

Russian forces announced that they had “liberated” the so-called “Kherson People’s Republic” on March 4 as Russia seized control of local media outlets.[30] The Kremlin will likely use this rhetoric of liberating the “people’s republics” to justify Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine. Ukraine’s Interior Ministry announced that Russian forces seized a TV tower broadcasting Ukrainian stations to disseminate pro-Russia propaganda and disinformation in Kherson, Ukraine, on March 3.[31] Russian forces broadcasted 24 Russian TV channels and 3 radio stations that promoted Russians as “liberators” of Kherson on March 3.[32] Russian forces likely took Kherson-based Ukrainian channels offline to monopolize the information environment and more effectively control the local population.

The Kremlin set conditions to justify potential Russian conscriptions and more aggressive Russian operations against Ukraine on March 4. Russia The Kremlin emphasized that the West may be planning nuclear provocations against Russia that would force Russia to respond, setting conditions for a false-flag operation to justify additional demands on the Russian population and to stoke nationalist anti-West fervor. Russian President Vladimir Putin called for the “normalization” of relations with other states and said that Moscow has “absolutely no ill intentions” toward neighboring states on March 4. Putin additionally claimed that the Russian military offensive in Ukraine was only “in response to unfriendly actions toward Russia.”[33]

The Russian Federation Council—the upper house of the Russian parliament—and Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov claimed on March 4 that the West had been preparing Ukraine for a “provocation” against Russia from Kharkiv, Ukraine, in concert with Western journalists.[34] The Federation Council alleged that Ukraine’s “sudden” need of nuclear weapons only intensified Russian national security concerns.[35] Russian Foreign Intelligence Services Director Sergei Naryshkin stated that the West “not only seeks to revive the Iron Curtain, but also to destroy Russia.”[36] Russia-backed former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov wrote on Facebook on March 4 that Ukraine and the West are planning a nuclear genocide against civilians in eastern Ukraine that will provoke a Russian response.[37]  Azarov warned that NATO plans to deploy forces to Ukraine in summer 2022 and that there will be a Third World War by the end of 2022.[38]

The Kremlin reiterated its framing of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a humanitarian effort on March 4 while painting Ukrainian leadership as fleeing the country. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that accusations that Russian troops have been bombing Ukrainian cities are “gross propaganda fakes” on a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on March 4.[39] Putin told Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko over the phone that Russia’s objective in Ukraine is to “protect the civilian population of Donbas” and that Russian military operations are going “according to plan” and will be carried out “in full” on March 4.[40] Lukashenko continued expressing his support for Russia.[41] Russian Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin continued to falsely claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Poland on March 4.[42]

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that foreigners fighting against Russia in Ukraine will not be considered legal combatants, removing their protections under international law.[43] Russia will not grant foreign combatants in Ukraine prisoner-of-war status. Russia will likely prosecute captured foreign combatants through the Russian justice system.

Belarusian Activity

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine on March 4.[44] Lukashenko said that “there is no need for Belarus to participate in the ‘special operation’” regardless of the provocations of outside forces.[45] Lukashenko emphasized that his task is to protect Belarus on Belarusian land and that the West wants Belarus to enter the war.[46] Separately, Lukashenko officially approved a referendum amending Belarus’ constitution on March 4. The constitutional amendments will give the Kremlin more de facto military control over Belarus and allow Belarus to host Russian nuclear weapons. The revised Belarusian constitution also ends Belarus’ previously constitutionally enshrined neutral status. Lukashenko falsely claimed that the vast majority of citizens democratically supported the amendments.[47] Lukashenko said that the new constitution marks the building of an independent and sovereign state as well as a new state ideology.

Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed support for Belarus’ interest in obtaining access to the Baltic Sea and developing port facilities in a phone call with Lukashenko on March 4.[48] Lukashenko and Putin signed legislation approving a draft customs cooperation agreement on March 3.[49] The agreement provides for information interaction, joint customs control, and the creation of an “interstate center within the customs committee of the Union State” to assess risk management and analytical functions when monitoring customs operations.

Ukrainian Activity

Ukraine is attempting to increase the ability of Russian citizens to learn about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine despite Russian media censorship, likely to increase domestic Russian opposition to the war.  Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs advisor Anton Geraschchenko posted a list of over 100 Russian prisoners of war (POWs) to Facebook.[50] The post included personal details about each POW and information about how their families can retrieve them from Ukrainian territory. Russia banned domestic access to Facebook on March 4.[51] Ukrainian volunteers directly reached out to the families of Russian POWs via the Russian-owned Telegram app to inform their friends and family of their capture. Volunteers provided details for families to come to Kyiv and collect the POWs, an unlikely journey in the midst of Russia's invasion.[52]

Ukraine has additionally galvanized volunteer support to conduct cyberattacks against Russian government sites.[53]  Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection Viktor Zhora stated that the “IT Army” could be as large as 400,000 people from Ukraine and other countries and that the group has temporarily taken down various Russian government and bank websites.[54] Zhora additionally said that the “IT Army” is working to combat domestic censorship within Russia by sending Russian citizens pictures and information about the reality of the war over texts and other messaging apps.

Military Support to Ukraine

NATO rejected Ukraine’s request to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine on March 4.[55] NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized that NATO will continue providing material support to Ukraine but will not operate planes or troops in Ukraine to avoid a larger conflict with Russia. The establishment of a no-fly zone in Ukraine would require NATO willingness to use lethal force against Russian aircraft, functionally entering the war on Ukraine’s behalf.

NATO and EU countries continued to provide lethal and non-lethal military equipment and aid to Ukraine on March 4.[56]

• Japan announced on March 4 it would send military supplies but not weapons to Ukraine.[57]
• A senior US defense official told CNN on March 4 that approximately $240 million of a $350 million US security assistance package has been delivered to Ukraine.[58] The “most-needed” items, including anti-armor weapons, were delivered and the remainder will arrive in Ukraine within one month. The US defense official said that the United States has also coordinated the delivery of military aid to Ukraine from other countries.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels on March 4 and encouraged NATO to continue to respond to Ukraine’s requests for supplies and equipment to defend against Russian military aggression.[59]

Sanctions and Economic Activity

The Kremlin continued to struggle with the effects of international sanctions on Russia’s economy. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov said that the Russian government is considering three options for foreign companies, including continuing operations as before, foreign shareholders transferring their share to Russian partners, and shuttering the companies’ Russian operations through “accelerated bankruptcy” procedures.[60] The Russian Central Bank announced on March 4 that the Russian stock exchange will remain closed at least through March 8.[61] S&P Global severely cut Russia’s credit rating from investment grade to CCC- on March 4 for failing to pay both its local currency and dollar debts.[62] Russian state-owned news agency TASS reported that Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry recommended suspending Russian fertilizer exports, a move that would increase prices and potentially affect farmers worldwide, on March 4.[63]  The Russian Duma adopted a law that allows Russia to promptly raise pension payments on March 4, likely to reduce the effect of sanctions-driven inflation on Russian pensioners.[64]

Humanitarian Concerns

Russia has not yet established humanitarian corridors to enable civilian supply and evacuation as Russia had agreed to in its March 3 negotiations with Ukraine. Russian sieges continue deteriorating living conditions in southern Ukraine despite increased Western efforts to coordinate humanitarian aid.[65]

• Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko appealed for military aid and the creation of a humanitarian corridor to evacuate more than 400,000 residents on March 4 amidst a Russian siege that has left the city with little water, food, heat, and electricity.[66]
• Kherson Mayor Igor Kolykhayev announced on March 4 that Russian forces are not implementing the recently agreed-upon humanitarian ceasefire corridors and that Russian forces are instead planning to distribute their own humanitarian aid.[67] The Kremlin will likely leverage images of Russian forces distrusting aid to mitigate the brutality of the occupation to domestic Russian audiences.
• The EU Council unanimously voted to introduce temporary protection to persons fleeing Ukraine.[68] Temporary protection is an emergency mechanism that gives displaced persons rights to residence, the labor market, housing, education, and medical assistance across the EU for up to one year.[69]
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to immediately cease all hostilities in Ukraine and allow humanitarian aid into territories where the fighting continued in a phone call on March 4.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu accepted a request from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to collaborate more closely with the UN to address humanitarian issues in Ukraine in a phone call on March 4.[70]

Other International Activity

The US Department of Defense established a deconfliction line with Russia’s Ministry of Defense to prevent possible military incidents near Ukraine and Belarus on March 1.[71]  

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted Finland and Sweden to increase high-level discussions on NATO membership and multilateral defense measures.[72]

• US President Joe Biden met with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö at the White House on March 4 to discuss the NATO-Finnish relationship and the possibility of Finland becoming a NATO member state.[73]
• The Nordic Council of Ministers suspended all cooperation projects with Russia and Belarus on March 4 in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine.[74] Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and the autonomous Finnish island Åland comprise the Nordic Council.[75]
• Finnish Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Biden administration representatives in the United States on 7-9 March.[76] The parties will discuss the US-Finland defense relationship and the security situation in Europe. Kaikkonen will also visit Lockheed Martin in Fort Worth, Texas, and Eglin Air Force Base in Florida to assess an F-35A fleet. American defense contractor Lockheed Martin plans on delivering an unspecified number of F-35A Lightning II multi-role fighter jets to Finland as part of a contract established before Russia’s invasion.[77]
• Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Swedish Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist will meet with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, and Finnish Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen on March 5 for bilateral security discussions.[78]
• A majority of Swedes support NATO membership for the first time following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to polling released on March 4.[79]

Turkey continued positioning itself as a leading candidate to mediate negotiations with Russia and Ukraine on March 4. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said he wants to mediate discussions between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Ankara, which will run from March 11-13.[80] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also emphasized that Turkey was “striving” for an “immediate ceasefire” during a phone call with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on March 4.[81] Erdogan discussed the fighting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on a separate phone call shortly after his conversation with Johnson.[82] Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman also offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 3.[83]