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Read a PDF version of the list of M23 officials in the appendix of CTP’s full report on M23’s state-building efforts here

Background

Mouvement du M23 mars (M23) is a Rwandan-backed rebel group based in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. M23 formed a broader political coalition with other Congolese rebel groups in December 2023, called Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC). M23 launched a military offensive in early 2025 that drastically expanded its territorial control to roughly half the size of Belgium, encompassing a population nearly the size of Ireland. The UN has repeatedly assessed that Rwanda maintains command and control over M23 military operations.

M23’s primary focus since early 2025 has been expanding its parallel government to newly captured areas to facilitate state-building initiatives. These efforts include at least 90 new appointments to the estimated 125 senior-level positions in M23’s civilian administration across North and South Kivu provinces in 2025, which are detailed in the following brief.

Read CTP’s full report on M23’s state-building project here

Methodology

M23 has not publicly disclosed its military structure, so the following military positions are assessments based on UN reports, social media posts, and Congolese media reporting. Political appointees are based on formal M23/AFC announcements, UN reports, social media posts, and Congolese media reporting. Official titles are capitalized, while informal titles or effective functions are lowercased. It is sometimes unclear how M23 has replaced senior military or political officers due to deaths and or other circumstances. There may be gaps in CTP’s ability to assess who has filled these roles due to the information gap in open source.

Military branch (Mouvement du M23 mars, M23)

Senior leadership

Figure 1. Senior Military Leadership

Source: Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.

Commander in Chief: General Sultani Makenga[i]

  • Chief of Staff: Colonel Ernest Sebagenzi [and possibly second deputy commander of operations and intelligence][ii]
    • Deputy Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of Operations: General Bernard Byamungu[iii]
  • Deputy Commander of Administration and Logistics: Brigadier General Justin Gacheri Musanga[iv]
  • Deputy Commander of Operations, 1st Brigade Commander: Brigadier General Baudoin Ngaruye[v]
  • Deputy Commander of Operations and Intelligence: Brigadier General Yusuf Mboneza [as of June 2023][vi]

Spokesperson: Lieutenant Colonel Willy Ngoma[vii]

General Staff

G1 (Administration) head: Colonel Dieudonné Padiri[viii]

G2 (Intelligence) head: Colonel John Nzenze (alias Mike Bravo) [also liaison to non-governmental organizations][ix]

  • G2 (Intelligence) deputy head: Lieutenant Colonel Julien Mahano [possibly deputy commander operations][x]
  • Chief Intelligence Officer in Goma: Baziramwabo (alias Baz)[xi]
    • Goma intelligence staff officers:[xii]
      • Bonane Bujakera
      • Bari
      • Hermann Bahinzi
    • Chief Intelligence Officer in Rutshuru District: Papias Ntiriniga[xiii]

G4 (Logistics) head: Colonel Jeff Kabayiza[xiv]

G5 (Planning) head: Colonel Albert Kabamba or Colonel Samuel Nsabimana[xv]

Senior training officer: Colonel Léon Kanyamibwa[xvi]

Officer for Mobilization and Recruitment: Colonel Simon Gafishi[xvii]

Brigade, Battalion, and Other Commanders

1st Brigade Commander: Brigadier General Baudoin Ngaruye[xviii]

  • Battalion Commander: Colonel Samuel Mushagara[xix]

2nd Brigade Commander: Colonel John Nzenze [as of June 2023][xx]

  • Battalion Commanders: Colonel Thomas Mwiseneza (alias Colonel Rapid) and Major Mirindi[xxi]

3rd Brigade Commander: Colonel Emmanuel Kabundi[xxii]

  • Battalion Commanders: Colonel Aigle and Colonel Dabusirindia[xxiii]

4th Brigade Commander: Colonel Justin Bihire (alias Zéro-Three)[xxiv]

Police Brigade Commander: Colonel Guillaume Eboko[xxv]

Artillery commander [possibly]: Colonel Innocent Rukara[xxvi]

Military hospital commanders: Colonel Kalala Kanyamarere and Doctor Jean Paul[xxvii]

Political Branch (Alliance Fleuve Congo, AFC)

Senior leadership

Figure 2. Senior Political Leadership

Source: Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.

Chief Coordinator: Corneille Nangaa[xxviii]

  • Chief of Staff: Yannick Tshisola[xxix]
  • Deputy Coordinator: Bertrand Bisimwa [in charge of political and diplomatic affairs][xxx]

Spokesperson: Lawrence Kanyuka [leads communications and media, establishment of M23 administrations, and a key negotiator][xxxi]

  • Deputy spokesperson: Oscar Balinda[xxxii]

Executive Secretary: Benjamin Mbonimpa[xxxiii]

Permanent Secretary: Delion Kimbulungu [also serves as head of judicial commission][xxxiv]

Federal Political Officials

Lead negotiator in Democratic Republic of the Congo–M23 peace talks: René Abandi[xxxv]

  • Other Negotiators: [xxxvi]
    • Executive Secretary and Head of Delegation Benjamin Mbonimpa
    • Chief of Staff Yannick Tshiola
    • Jean-Pierre Lukamba (alias Jeanpy)

Head of recruitment and propaganda: Désiré Rukomera[xxxvii]

  • Assistant heads of recruitment and propaganda:[xxxviii]
    • Pascal Uzamukunda
    • Jean-Louis Kulu

Permanent Representative for International and Diaspora Affairs: Willy Nshuti[xxxix]

Inspector General: Rigobert Amani[xl]

Intendant General: Gage Musanga[xli]

Federal Economic Officials

Head of Finance: Robert Mugisha[xlii]

  • Deputy Heads of Finance[xliii]
    • Public Finance and Taxes: Kilo Buhunda
    • Public Debt and Investments: Fanny Kayemb

Director General of the Caisse Générale d’Epargne du Congo (CADECO): Javan Sangano[xliv]

  • Deputy Directors General:[xlv]
    • Economic and Financial Issues: Yves Sumbu
    • Administrative and Legal Issues: Kanyihata Katembo

CADECO Board Members:[xlvi]

  • Inspector General Rigobert Amani
  • Permanent Secretary Delion Kimbulungu
  • Doudou Tikaileli
  • Samuel Sabimana

Officer for the Rehabilitation of Infrastructure: Essiel Kanyamuhanda[xlvii]

  • Deputy Officer for the Rehabilitation of Infrastructure: Claude Habiyaremye[xlviii]

North Kivu Provincial leadership

Governor: Joseph Bahati (alias Bahati Erasto)[xlix]

  • Chief of Staff: Rémy Bahati[l]
  • Senior Advisers:[li]
    • Political and Diplomatic Matters and Relations with Religious Denominations: Adrien Kambale
    • Administrative, Legal, and Customary Matters: Innocent Amani
    • Economic and Financial matters, Budget, Planning, Portfolio, Trade, Environment, Hydrocarbons, Water Resources, and Electricity: Aimable Muhawe
    • Gender, Family and Children, Education, and Social and Humanitarian Affairs: Chantal Kayitaba
    • Projects, Technical and Development Issues, Land Affairs, Urban Planning and Housing, Transport, and Communications: Timothée Kasereka
    • Civil Service, Employment, Social Security, Agriculture, Fisheries, Livestock, Rural Development, Industry, and Tourism: Crispin Mvano
  • Vice Governors:[lii]
    • Political, Administrative, and Legal Affairs: Willy Manzi
    • Financial Affairs: Shaddrak Amani

Provincial Finance Coordinator: Patient Haba[liii]

  • Deputy Finance Coordinators:[liv]
    • Public Finances and Taxes: Birahira Ndayambaje
    • Public Debt and Investments: Sumche Musango

Delegate of Mines: Liévin Mukingi[lv]

Director of the Studies, Planning, and Promotion of the Business Climate and Investments: Emmanuel Birato[lvi]

Head of the Provincial Division of Public Health: Robert Biya[lvii]

Health Inspector: Pascaline Teitei[lviii]

Sub-Provincial Leadership for North Kivu

Goma[lix]

Mayor: Julien Katembo

  • Deputy Mayor: Désiré Ngabo

Commune leadership in Goma:

  • Bourgmestre of Goma Commune: Hélène Mukadis
  • Bourgmestre of Karisimbi Commune: Crispin Abdoul

Masisi[lx]

Territorial Administrator: Emmanuel Ndizeye

  • Deputy Territorial Administrator: Jonas Banyene

Lubero[lxi]

Territorial Administrator: Jean-Louis Kulu

  • Deputy Territorial Administrator: Elie Radjabu

Commune leadership in Lubero:

  • Bourgmestre of Kirumba Commune: Innocent Munyandekwe
    • Deputy Bourgmestre: Jeanine Kavugho
  • Bourgmestre of Kayna Commune: Jean-Baptiste Kahinda
    • Deputy Bourgmestre: Siméon Mumbere
  • Bourgmestre of Kanyabayona Commune: Jean Matimano
    • Deputy Bourgmestre: Martin Senzoga

Nyiragongo[lxii]

Territorial Administrator: Ephrem Kabasha

Chiefdom/Group Leadership in Nyiragongo:

  • Chief of Bukumu Chiefdom: Issac Butsitsi
  • Chief of Kibumba Group: Karemera Gatambaro
  • Chief of Buhumba Group: Bigabiro Sebahutu
    • Village Chiefs in Buhumba Group:
      • Chief of Rwibiranga Village: Tama Barawigirira
      • Chief of Chyegera Village: Emmanuel Kabumba
      • Chief of Nakabumbi Village: Mbirabumbva Mujinya
      • Chief of Kabuye Village: Abidenego Muzayifu
      • Chief of Ngobera Village: Majaribu Gishuba
      • Chief of Kabaganga Village: Rwanze Bachungu
      • Chief of Kanyanja Village: Nginzwe Karyugahawa

Rutshuru[lxiii]

Territorial Administrator: Prince Mpabuka

Mayor of Kitchanga Town: Patient Mangunga

  • Deputy Mayor: Faustin Batachoka

Chiefdom/Group Leadership in Rutshuru:

  • Chief of Bwisha Chiefdom: Daniel Ndeze
    • Chief of Bweza Group: Emmanuel Nsengiyunva, replaced by “his son” in 2025
      • Nsanzimana Sekinanira—head of agriculture in Bweza group in Bwisha chiefdom
      • Dusabe Muvuzankawaya—head of peace and security in Bweza group in Bwisha chiefdom
      • Chief of Tanda Locality: Bahati Sinabajije
      • Chief of Ntamugenga Locality: Jean-Mondo Habarugira
      • Chief of Kabasanza Locality: Kabirigi Senyamarwa
      • Security Officer of Rutsiro Locality: Bizamana Sebaya
      • Security Officer of Ntamugenga Center: Innocent Kibirima
    • Chief of Gisigari Group: Nzamuye Kabaya
      • Police Commissioner and Head of Peace and Security: Charigufi Baraka
      • Chief of Kako Nord Locality: Nyarubwa Kasengele
      • Chief of Kako Sud Locality: Bahati Bideri
      • Chief of Rubare Village: Maguru
      • Co-Chiefs of Kalengera Locality: Ndazeya Kanuma, Kigani Bodoue, Kabera Batega, and Nyabade
    • Chief of Jomba group in Bwisha Chiefdom: Vincent Mwambutsa
      • Chief of Bunagana Town: Désiré Kanyamarere
      • Chief of Bunagana Locality: Sekabara Rumazimisi
        • Deputy Chief of Bunagana: Nziza
      • Chief of Rugari Group: Rukavu Buhuzu
      • Chief of Kisigari Group: Nzamuye
      • Chief of Busanza Group: Désiré Bahizi

South Kivu leadership

Governor: Patrick Busu[lxiv]

  • Chief of Staff: Jean Bwino[lxv]
    • Deputy Chief of Staff: Pastor Kyalangalilwa[lxvi]
  • Vice Governors:[lxvii]
    • Political, Administrative, and Legal Issues: Dunia Bwenge
    • Economic, Financial, and Development Issues: Juvénal Gishinge

Head of Communications: Yves Rudahindwa[lxviii]

Senior Staff Member in Charge of Investigations and Security: Christian Bashaga[lxix]

Director of State Protocol: Hubert Masonga[lxx]

Provincial Coordinator in Charge of Economic Development, Infrastructure, Natural Resources, Energy, and Employment: Albert Tcheta[lxxi]

Provincial Finance Coordinator: Jean Bosco Nzabonimpa[lxxii]

  • Deputy Finance Coordinators:[lxxiii]
    • Public Finances and Taxes: Papy Karinyijabo
    • Public Debt and Investments: Grégoire Ntambuka

Delegate of Mines: Wilson Lutwamuzire[lxxiv]

Sub-Provincial Leadership for South Kivu

Bukavu[lxxv]

Bourgmestre of Ibanda Commune: Alexis Masumbuko in Bukavu

  • Deputy Bourgmestre: Jonathan Hakuzimana

Bourgmestre of Kadutu Commune: Emmanuel Byamungo

  • Deputy Bourgmestre: René Bulikoliko

Bourgmestre of Bagira Commune: Socrate Sumbu

  • Deputy Bourgmestre: Jean-Marie Muhoza

Minova[lxxvi]

Mayor of Minova: Paulin Balyahamwabo

  • Deputy Mayor: Augustin Nsengimana

Kalehe[lxxvii]

Territorial Administrator: Jean Bosco Buseyi

  • Deputy Territorial Administrator: Faustin Ndaye

Kabare[lxxviii]

Territorial Administrator: Espoir Elie

  • Deputy Territorial Administrator: Pascaline Chikuru

Idjwi[lxxix]

Territorial Administrator: Pascal Ntambuka

  • Deputy Territorial Administrator: Amzat Muhanuka

Walungu[lxxx]

Territorial Administrator: Anastasie Shengamungu

  • Deputy Territorial Administrator: Colin Kasongo

[i] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/969; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431

[ii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://x.com/goma24news/status/1536651967371542528; https://x.com/FMLarousse/status/1540325335467802629; https://x.com/kivuresidence/status/1790760154780045468

[iii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/990; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/969; https://x.com/Col_Alimasi/status/1892097786600095876; https://radiomaendeleo dot org/sud-kivu-decede-le-05-mai-le-vice-gouverneur-sous-afc-m23-a-ete-enterre-a-bukavu-le-19-mai

[iv] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://x.com/Javan_rw/status/1902688093552926756; https://x.com/SugiraMireille/status/1750416173496185198

[v] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/20/dr-congo-m23-mass-killings-near-virunga-national-park

[vi] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://umuseke dot rw/2023/01/ibyihariye-kuri-brig-gen-mboneza-nimero-ya-kabiri-mu-ndwanyi-za-m23

[vii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/990; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446; https://x.com/kivunewstoday/status/1949208528566018163

[viii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://x.com/FMLarousse/status/1959342888887693436

[ix] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446; https://x.com/RGakwerere/status/1748707006561550457; https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=OJ:L_202500509

[x] https://x.com/RGakwerere/status/1748707006561550457; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432

[xi] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xiii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432

[xiv] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432

[xv] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://x.com/kivunews24/status/1920849403574636972; https://x.com/M23_TWIRWANEHO/status/1920850359427203352; https://x.com/AganzeRafiki/status/1920851907452510628

[xvi] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/969; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xvii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xviii] https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/20/dr-congo-m23-mass-killings-near-virunga-national-park

[xix] https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/20/dr-congo-m23-mass-killings-near-virunga-national-park

[xx] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431

[xxi] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431

[xxii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431

[xxiii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431

[xxiv] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431

[xxv] https://x.com/Kivuinfo24/status/1963152817226441071

[xxvi] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431

[xxvii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431

[xxviii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/969; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xxix] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446; https://x.com/Kivuinfo24/status/1943337681619984481

[xxx] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=OJ:L_202500509; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432

[xxxi] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2023/431; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/969; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446; https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0022

[xxxii] https://x.com/kivunews24/status/1962836910679744792; https://en.igihe dot com/news/article/m23-announces-new-leadership-in-controlled-territories

[xxxiii] https://x.com/afcongo/status/1760775346851385754/photo/2; https://x.com/Kivuinfo24/status/1943337681619984481

[xxxiv] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446; https://x.com/KadimaYassin/status/1928385340324389321; https://x.com/KadimaYassin/status/1928389025204748327; https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1904730860726759592; https://x.com/wembi_steve/status/1961690972967895428  

[xxxv] https://x.com/Kivuinfo24/status/1943337681619984481

[xxxvi] https://x.com/Kivuinfo24/status/1943337681619984481

[xxxvii] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=OJ:L_202500509; https://en.igihe dot com/news/article/m23-announces-new-leadership-in-controlled-territories

[xxxviii] https://en.igihe dot com/news/article/m23-announces-new-leadership-in-controlled-territories

[xxxix] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1919854417009856792

[xl] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908909754572775702/photo/2; https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1904730860726759592/photo/2

[xli] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908910900989272457/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446 

[xlii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1902411153742938428/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xliii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1902411153742938428/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xliv] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1904730736113885534/photo/2

[xlv] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1904730736113885534/photo/2

[xlvi] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1904730860726759592

[xlvii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xlviii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[xlix] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1887186842992132378/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446; https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=OJ:L_202500509

[l] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/05/05/nord-kivu-nouvelles-nominations-au-cabinet-du-gouverneur-sous-lafc-m23

[li] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/05/05/nord-kivu-nouvelles-nominations-au-cabinet-du-gouverneur-sous-lafc-m23

[lii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1887186842992132378/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446 

[liii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1902417114088006003/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446 

[liv] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1902417114088006003/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446 

[lv] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1902417114088006003; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[lvi] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1930322202986979419

[lvii] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/05/01/nord-kivu-le-dr-biya-nkizinkiko-robert-nomme-chef-de-division-provinciale-de-la-sante-publique

[lviii] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/05/01/nord-kivu-le-dr-biya-nkizinkiko-robert-nomme-chef-de-division-provinciale-de-la-sante-publique

[lix] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1887351273327931846; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[lx] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[lxi] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908913664909771032/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446 

[lxii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446

[lxiii] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2024/432; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446 

[lxiv] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1932812526477296045/photo/2

[lxv] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/08/19/sud-kivu-le-gouverneur-nomme-un-cabinet-de-technocrates-sous-ladministration-de-lafc-m23

[lxvi] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/08/19/sud-kivu-le-gouverneur-nomme-un-cabinet-de-technocrates-sous-ladministration-de-lafc-m23

[lxvii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1895502120134295878/photo/2; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446 

[lxviii] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/08/19/sud-kivu-le-gouverneur-nomme-un-cabinet-de-technocrates-sous-ladministration-de-lafc-m23

[lxix] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/08/19/sud-kivu-le-gouverneur-nomme-un-cabinet-de-technocrates-sous-ladministration-de-lafc-m23

[lxx] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/08/19/sud-kivu-le-gouverneur-nomme-un-cabinet-de-technocrates-sous-ladministration-de-lafc-m23

[lxxi] https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/08/19/sud-kivu-le-gouverneur-nomme-un-cabinet-de-technocrates-sous-ladministration-de-lafc-m23

[lxxii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1902419042473779271/photo/2

[lxxiii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1902419042473779271/photo/2

[lxxiv] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1902419042473779271/photo/2

[lxxv] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908916993778200855/photo/3

[lxxvi] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908916993778200855/photo/3

[lxxvii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908916993778200855/photo/2

[lxxviii] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908916993778200855/photo/2

[lxxix] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908916993778200855/photo/2

[lxxx] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1908916993778200855/photo/2

View Citations

Challenges to Sustainable DRC-M23 Peace

See the PDF of this report here.

Read the full update with graphics here. Shapefiles are available by request via email to [email protected].

To receive the weekly Africa File and the triweekly Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here. Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky.

Key Takeaway

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), M23, and Rwanda will likely remain involved with Qatari-brokered negotiations and the broader US-backed regional peace framework without quickly reaching a deal to avoid making concessions while reaping the rewards of US engagement. Both sides have been unwilling to concede their maximalist positions on M23’s territorial control, which will likely prolong talks and make a sustainable and lasting agreement unlikely.

Peace Platforms

Actors’ Incentives to Engage in Peace Talks
  • DRC Government: The US-backed peace framework would bring significant US investment in the government-controlled mining sector, strengthen the Congolese army, and possibly help isolate opposition political factions.
  • Rwanda: The US-backed peace framework will bring significant US investment and help legitimize Rwanda’s stake in the mineral trade in the eastern DRC.
  • M23: Peace talks give M23 time to consolidate its de facto control over occupied areas and strengthen its military.
Obstacles to a Sustainable Agreement
  • M23 Territorial Control: Both sides have stuck to their maximalist demands on M23’s territorial control. M23—with Rwandan support—is pushing for autonomy, while the DRC demands M23’s unconditional withdrawal.
  • Dispute Resolution Mechanisms: The DRC rejected M23’s proposed demilitarized zone, and the two sides have not established a joint ceasefire monitoring mechanism.
Implications and Outlook
  • Sustainable Agreement Unlikely: The lack of clarity and willingness to negotiate on M23 control and the return of government authority will likely be a major obstacle in the upcoming round of talks.
  • External Pressure Needed: US and Qatari pressure could lead both sides to make and follow through on concessions to retain the advantages of the US-backed peace framework.
  • Military Escalation Possible: M23 may already have the requisite strength to relaunch its military campaign and could conduct southward or westward offensives to gain leverage if talks stall or collapse.
  • Other Spoilers: Other local and regional actors excluded from ongoing talks, such as pro-Congolese government militias, Burundi, or Uganda, could undermine the sustainability of the broader peace framework.

Kabila’s Return to the DRC

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Summary

Former Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila has reentered Congolese politics to capitalize on the eastern DRC crisis and regain power by positioning himself as the leader of a broad opposition bloc that includes Rwandan-backed M23 rebels. Kabila’s reemergence risks convoluting the domestic peace process, which is necessary for long-term peace and stable economic investment in the DRC.

Key Development
  • Kabila has reentered Congolese politics amid the eastern DRC crisis after a multi-year hiatus. Kabila returned to the DRC in late May through M23-controlled Goma for the first time in over a year and gave his first public address since he left office in 2019.
Kabila's Objective
  • Kabila likely seeks to capitalize on M23’s advantageous position to strengthen his own political influence and lead a unified opposition blocwhich includes M23against DRC President Félix Tshisekedi.
  • Kabila likely aims to use his position to regain power in some form through a national dialogue, which would work toward establishing a transitional government in the DRC.
  • Kabila may have hastened his return to the DRC after the Congolese government began to retaliate against his networks in early 2025.
Implications
  • Expanded Conflict Unlikely: Kabila’s relationship with M23 is transactional and opportunistic, which makes him unlikely to use M23 to seize power militarily.
  • Strengthened M23 Leverage: M23 gains legitimacy from Kabila’s support, as Kabila’s backing undermines the DRC government’s narrative that M23 is a foreign Rwandan problem.
  • Convoluted Domestic Peace Talks: Kabila is one of many actors whom multilateral peace processes will need to consider. The DRC government’s actions against Kabila were reportedly a “source of tension” in Qatari-mediated DRC-M23 talks in late April.
TIMELINE
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Sep '25