Data Cutoff: March 25, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: Member states from the East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community (SADC) held a virtual joint summit to discuss the security situation in the eastern DRC and appoint new facilitators to restart dialogue between the DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23. Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye claimed that Rwandan President Paul Kagame “has a plan to attack Burundi” based on “credible intelligence” reports in an interview with the BBC. M23 clashed with the Congolese army and allied militias in villages near Walikale town in western North Kivu after a short-term ceasefire agreement with the Congolese army (FARDC) collapsed.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 repelled pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militia attacks on several villages north of the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. Wazalendo militia fighters attacked M23 forces in several villages, including Katana, Kabamba, and Kavumu—located about 25 miles north of South Kivu’s provincial capital of Bukavu—in the Kabare district of northern South Kivu on March 25.[1] The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 expelled the Wazalendo fighters from Katana and Kabamba after several hours of fighting.[2] M23 captured Katana and Kavumu in mid-February as the rebel group advanced south along the RN2 toward Bukavu.[3]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 clashed with the Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militias in villages near Walikale town in western North Kivu after a short-term ceasefire agreement collapsed on March 24.[4] Congolese media reported that M23 advanced to Kirundu—six miles west of Walikale town along the RN3—and clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias.[5] Wazalendo fighters attacked M23 positions on M23’s flank in Shabunda and Mutakato—located about 18 and 14 miles north of Walikale town along the RP529, respectively.[6] M23 captured both villages on March 19 as it advanced toward Walikale town.[7]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 attacked FARDC and allied militia positions in a village near the Mwenga district capital in central South Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Media Congo reported that M23 attacked FARDC and Wazalendo positions in Kilungutwe—located 25 miles north along the RN2 from Mwenga town—on March 24.[8] M23 advanced through Kilungutwe in early March on their way to Mwenga town, but pro-Congolese government forces repelled an M23 assault on Mwenga town on March 11 and inflicted “heavy losses.”[9]

Major Political Developments

Member states from the East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community (SADC) convened virtually for a joint heads of state summit to discuss the security situation in eastern DRC on March 24.[10] The summit was a follow-up to several EAC-SADC joint meetings since early February.[11] The bloc formally adopted plans to implement a ceasefire in the eastern DRC, secure M23-held areas, and strengthen multilateral forces’ and FARDC’s fighting capacity.[12]

The EAC-SADC heads of state reshuffled the team of facilitators tasked with merging regional peace processes and restarting dialogue between the DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23. The bloc appointed former South African President Kgalema Motlanthe, former Central African President Catherine Samba-Panza, and former Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde to join former presidents Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya and Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria on the facilitation team.[13] Zewde replaced another former Ethiopian leader, Hailemariam Desalegn.[14] The post-summit EAC-SADC communiqué said that the bloc made the changes to facilitate “gender, regional and language inclusivity.”[15] The French magazine Jeune Afrique reported in mid-March that the DRC took issue with the original set of facilitators described as a “trio of English-speaking men.”[16] The facilitation team will appoint a mediator that will replace Angolan President João Lourenço, who stepped down in March to focus on his role as African Union (AU) chairperson after peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda and Rwandan-backed M23 collapsed.[17] The joint communiqué said that Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Kenyan President William Ruto will brief the facilitators within the next week to enable the team to restart dialogue.[18]

Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye claimed that Rwandan President Paul Kagame “has a plan to attack Burundi” based on “credible intelligence” reports in an interview with the BBC on March 25.[19] Ndayishimiye has repeatedly accused Rwanda of “planning something against Burundi” since M23 captured Goma, the North Kivu provincial capital, in late January.[20] The Burundian president reiterated to the BBC that Rwanda’s links to RED Tabara—a Burundian Tutsi rebel group—and Rwanda’s suspected involvement in a 2015 coup attempt continue to strain the two countries’ relations.[21]

Data Cutoff: March 24, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on Twitter, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: M23 announced that it would withdraw from Walikale town in western North Kivu, but M23 has yet to vacate the district capital and has accused the Congolese army (FARDC) of failing to demilitarize despite no reported clashes. Congolese and international media outlets have speculated that M23 may continue to advance westward from Walikale town. Angola announced that it would step down as peace mediator for the conflict in the eastern DRC in what Congolese media described as a “major blow” to regional efforts to facilitate a peace agreement. The Ugandan military chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba said on social media that the Ugandan army would not oppose a potential M23 offensive on Kisangani, the DRC’s fourth-largest city.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 repelled pro-Congolese government militia attacks on two villages near the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias clashed with M23 in Nyatende and Nyangezi—located 6 miles and 15 miles from Bukavu, respectively—on March 23.[1] M23 previously repelled Wazalendo attacks in the area on March 17.[2]

Wazalendo militias clashed with two M23-aligned rebel groups in an area that straddles the Fizi and Mwenga districts in southern South Kivu. Congolese media reported that Wazalendos clashed with Twirwaneho and RED Tabara rebels in three villages near Minembwe town on March 23.[3] These factions previously clashed in several villages near Minembwe between March 19 and March 21.[4]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 announced that it would withdraw from Walikale town in western North Kivu, but M23 has yet to vacate the district capital and has accused the Congolese army (FARDC) of failing to demilitarize despite no reported clashes. M23 captured Walikale town on March 19, and FARDC and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias launched air and ground counterattacks on M23 positions in Walikale town on March 21 and 22.[5] M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka announced on March 22 that M23 would “reposition its forces” from Walikale town to “foster conditions conducive to political dialogue.”[6] Reuters reported on March 22 that M23 intended to withdraw from Walikale town and quoted a senior M23 official who said that the move signaled the group’s desire to “give peace a chance.”[7] The DRC, Rwanda, and Qatar all released statements supporting M23’s announcement.[8]

M23 forces still control key infrastructure points in Walikale town as of March 24, however, and has accused FARDC of violating its side of the agreement despite no reported clashes in recent days.[9] Kanyuka warned in his initial statement on March 22 that M23 would reverse its decision to withdraw if FARDC did not cease air and ground attacks on M23 positions.[10] Senior FARDC and M23 officials reportedly agreed to demilitarize Walikale town and the surrounding area as part of a ceasefire.[11] Kanyuka accused FARDC of not withdrawing its attack drones from Walikale on March 24, forcing M23 to delay the “repositioning” of its forces around Walikale.[12]

Congolese and international media outlets have speculated that M23 may continue to advance westward. French media cited “military sources” within FARDC on March 22 who speculated that M23 had “no intention” to withdraw from Walikale and likely planned to “advance toward Kisangani.”[13] Kisangani is more than 250 miles northwest of Walikale town along the RN3 and is the DRC’s fourth largest city.[14] Reuters reported on March 22 that an M23 fighter told Walikale residents on March 20 that M23 would keep “a small group of soldiers there to provide security” as other M23 forces “continue all the way to Kinshasa.”[15] Congolese media reported on March 24 that FARDC reinforced its positions in Boboro, 15 miles northwest of Walikale along the RN3.[16] Congolese media reported on March 24 that M23 split off into three contingents that headed northwest of Walikale toward Boboro, directly west from Walikale toward Ntoto, and southeast from Walikale along the RN3 toward Itebero.[17]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Angola announced that it would step down as peace mediator for the conflict in the eastern DRC in what Congolese media described as a “major blow” to regional efforts to facilitate a peace agreement between the DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels.[18] Angolan President João Lourenço announced on social media on March 24 that he would formally abdicate his role as mediator and appoint another African head of state to mediate the conflict “in the coming days” in order to free Angola to “devote itself more” to the African Union’s (AU) larger priorities.[19] Lourenço had previously told French media that he would “pass the baton” to another African head of state in mid-February when Angola assumed the chairmanship of the AU but then announced that Angola would mediate between the DRC and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels in mid-March.[20] M23 withdrew from the planned negotiations after the EU sanctioned senior Rwandan and M23 officials on March 17.[21] Angola had been mediating peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda since 2022 under the Luanda process, which the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) agreed to merge with the Kenyan-led Nairobi process between the Congolese government and armed groups in the eastern DRC in March 2024.[22] French media reported in mid-March that Lourenço would oversee the facilitators that the EAC and SADC appointed to finalize the merger.[23]

M23 canceled a UN monitoring team’s visit to M23-occupied areas on March 22.[24] M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka stated that the group suspended the UN team’s visit—scheduled to take place from March 23 to March 27—due to “last-minute emergencies.”[25] The UN experts were expected to investigate logistical concerns affecting humanitarian efforts in eastern DRC, including an assessment of the operability of the Goma airport—a key logistical hub for humanitarian operations in North Kivu and South Kivu—that M23 has claimed it wants to reopen but remains in inoperable disrepair since M23 captured Goma in late January.[26]

The Ugandan military chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba said on social media that the Ugandan army would not oppose a potential M23 offensive on Kisangani.[27] Kainerugaba said that M23 should “act quickly, otherwise we will do it ourselves... in a week.”[28] Kainerugaba’s comments came after he met with Rwandan President Paul Kagame and Rwandan’s army chief in Kigali on March 20.[29]

Data Cutoff: March 21, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on Twitter, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: M23 will reportedly participate in Qatari-mediated discussions in the coming days. Pro-Congolese government militias launched a counterattack on M23 positions in Walikale town of western North Kivu shortly after M23 took control of the town’s key points. M23 announced a series of economic and humanitarian initiatives as it seeks to consolidate control over its territory in eastern DRC.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

The Congolese army (FARDC) and pro-Congolese government militia fighters clashed with M23-aligned rebels in an area that straddles the Fizi and Mwenga districts in southern South Kivu for the third straight day. Congolese media reported that the pro-Congolese government forces launched an attack on rebel positions and took control of several villages near Minembwe town on March 20 and March 21.[1] Pro-Congolese government forces clashed with M23-aligned rebels roughly 14 miles north of Minembwe in Mikenge on March 19.[2] Pro-Congolese government forces have clashed with M23-aligned rebels in Mikenge and the Minembwe area since late February.[3]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported in a series of articles that FARDC and pro-Congolese government militias launched a counterattack on M23 positions in Walikale town of western North Kivu shortly after M23 took control of key infrastructure in the town. M23 captured Walikale on March 19, forcing FARDC to retreat 15 miles northwest of Walikale along the RN3 to Boboro.[4] Actualite.cd reported that M23 forces had deployed on March 20 to “several strategic locations” in Walikale, including a military camp, the town’s administrative offices, and the town’s airport—Kigoma airfield.[5] The outlet reported that FARDC launched a ground and air attack on Kigoma airfield shortly after M23 permitted an unidentified aircraft to land on March 21.[6]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government militias near the Walungu district capital in central South Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 and pro-Congolese government militias clashed near Walungu town and in at least five villages within 15 miles of the town on March 19.[7] M23 previously clashed with pro-Congolese government militias in Burhale group—located 10 miles south of Walungu town along the RN2—on March 18.[8] M23 captured Walungu town and its surrounding areas in late February, but Congolese media reports have indicated since that time that pro-Congolese government militia fighters have continued to contest the area.[9]

Major Political Developments

Isolated and unconfirmed reports in Congolese media claim that M23 will participate in Qatari-mediated discussions in the coming days.[10]  Qatar brokered a ceasefire between the DRC and Rwanda on March 18 after M23 pulled out of Angola-mediated discussions with the DRC government.[11] Nouveau Media reported that M23 will now participate in Qatari-mediated discussions because the rebels “no longer have much confidence” in Angola’s ability to mediate impartially between the group and the Congolese government.[12] M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka had said that M23 required “a good environment” to voice their demands in an interview with Russian state media on March 19.[13] Nouveau Media cited “several sources” in Goma who claimed that M23 leaders—including Corneille Nangaa, head of M23’s political branch, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC)—have agreed to attend peace talks in Doha, the Qatari capital.[14] The outlet claimed that Qatar views M23’s participation in future negotiations as indispensable to reaching a long-term peace agreement.[15]

M23 announced new efforts to cooperate with UN humanitarian requests, including allowing a visit from the UN monitoring team. Kanyuka announced on March 21 that experts from the UN’s DRC monitoring team will visit M23-occupied areas from March 23 to March 27.[16] A Congolese journalist reported on social media on March 21 that the UN experts will investigate logistical concerns to help facilitate humanitarian efforts.[17] Kanyuka said that M23 is seeking to reopen the airport in Goma—North Kivu’s provincial capital—in an interview with Reuters on March 20.[18] M23 has controlled the Goma airport—a key logistical hub for humanitarian operations in North Kivu and South Kivu—since capturing Goma in late January but has claimed that the airport remains in inoperable disrepair despite calls from the UN to reopen the airport.[19]

Nangaa said that AFC would establish a financial “regulatory authority” in areas under its control that will function as a central bank in an interview with Reuters on March 20.[20] Nangaa’s comments came after Kanyuka announced in a communiqué on March 19 that M23 appointed three officials to lead M23’s efforts to administer North Kivu’s public finance, tax management, and investments.[21] Goma has faced cash shortages and rising prices after the Central Bank of Congo severed business relations with local banks when M23 took the city.[22] The French magazine Jeune Afrique reported in late February that the Central Bank of Congo would consider banks based in Goma as “complicit” with M23 if they continued servicing local populations under M23 occupation.[23] Banks have also remained closed in Bukavu—the South Kivu provincial capital—and Nangaa said that AFC would “take action” against local banks who refused to resume service during a public rally in the city in late February.[24]