Congo War Security Review

*CTP will be pausing the Congo War Security Review for Independence Day in the United States on July 4. The next Congo War Security Review will publish as usual on July 7.*

Data Cutoff: July 2, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The DRC and Rwandan foreign ministers gave conflicting timelines of the joint concept of operations plan. DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner said that the DRC is aiming to seal a peace deal with M23 before a heads of state summit in July. Reuters leaked a UN report that claimed Rwanda still exerted control over M23 in early 2025. M23 conducted a clearing operation against suspected pro-Congolese government fighters in Sake in North Kivu.

Significant Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

M23 conducted a clearing operation against suspected pro-Congolese government fighters in Sake in North Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 conducted the operation in several neighborhoods in Sake and arrested close to 20 suspected pro-Congolese government fighters on July 1.[i] M23 reportedly transferred the suspected fighters to Goma for “in-depth investigations.”[ii] The Congolese news outlet Radio Okapi said that M23 has conducted four clearing operations and arrested nearly 80 suspected DRC government sympathizers in the Sake area since mid-June.[iii]

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack in Walikale district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 attacked Wazalendo positions in a remote village in Kisimba group in Walikale on July 1.[iv] The outlet reported separately that Wazalendos kidnapped two M23 “commanders” in the nearby Ikoko group in Walikale on June 30.[v] M23 conducted an unsuccessful search operation in the bush to locate the abducted commanders.[vi]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC and Rwandan foreign ministers gave conflicting timelines of the implementation of the joint concept of operations plan (CONOP). Rwandan Foreign Minister Oliver Nduhungirehe said that Rwanda will withdraw its troops only after the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) is eradicated in an interview with the French magazine Jeune Afrique on June 28.[vii] Nduhungirehe said that CONOP “clearly states” that FDLR’s liquidation will “pave the way” for Rwanda’s withdrawal.[viii] The Congolese Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner said that the two measures “must be done concurrently,” however.[ix] Wagner said that the “first component” of the CONOP is Rwanda’s withdrawal and that the second is FDLR’s eradication.[x] The CONOP published by the US State Department lists Rwanda’s withdrawal from the eastern DRC in sequence after the FDLR’s neutralization in the second overall phase of the plan.[xi]

Wagner said that the DRC is aiming to seal a peace deal with M23 before a heads of state summit in July. Wagner told Bloomberg on June 30 that the DRC wants a deal with M23 before DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, this month.[xii] The outlet said that any agreement would not stipulate that M23 “necessarily needs to withdraw” but that a deal would allow the DRC to bring “something tangible” to the summit.[xiii]

Reuters leaked a UN report that claimed Rwanda still exerted control over M23 in early 2025. The UN report said that Rwanda maintained operational authority over M23 “on whether to seize, hold, or relinquish territory” in the reporting period from early 2025 to late April.[xiv] The UN report claimed that Rwanda’s main objective in backing M23 was not mainly to address the FDLR threat but to “conquer additional territories” in the eastern DRC.[xv] The report said that Rwanda continued to provide training and substantial military support to M23, including sophisticated air defense systems, that gave M23 a “decisive tactical advantage” over pro-Congolese government forces.[xvi] Reuters reported that the report claimed that Rwanda deployed at least 6,000 troops on Congolese soil before M23 conducted its sweeping offensive in early 2025.[xvii] The UN estimated that 1,000 to 1,500 Rwandan troops were still deployed in M23-controlled territory when the reporting period ended in late April.[xviii] A Rwandan spokesperson told Reuters that the report “misrepresents Rwanda’s longstanding security concerns” regarding FDLR and its decision to deploy troops.[xix]

Data Cutoff: June 30, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: Corneille Nangaa, the head of M23’s political branch, gave a speech calling for solutions to the “real causes” of conflict after the United States brokered a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. M23 repelled several pro-Congolese government Wazalendo attacks in Walungu district south of Bukavu. M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in a town on the border between Masisi and Walikale districts in North Kivu. M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters near the RN2 road in South Kivu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters near the RN2 road in South Kivu. Independent Congolese journalist Daniel Michombero reported on social media that M23 clashed with Wazalendos near Mushweshe village on June 30.[i] Mushweshe is about ten miles east of Kavumu village on the RN2 road and 22 miles north of Bukavu, the South Kivu provincial capital.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in a village on the border between Masisi and Walikale districts in North Kivu. The Congolese news outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 clashed with  Wazalendos in Nyabiondo in Masisi district on the RP529 on June 29.[ii] Nyabiondo is roughly 10 miles west of the Masisi district capital on the RP529. Actualite.cd reported separately that M23 has been reinforcing its positions with troops and military equipment near Nyabiondo since June 26.[iii]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 repelled several Wazalendo attacks near the Walungu district capital in South Kivu. Congolese media reported that Wazalendo elements attacked M23 in several villages in the Kaniola group, roughly six miles west of Walungu town, on June 26 and June 27.[iv] Kaniola is about 24 miles south of Bukavu on the RN2 in Walungu district. M23 deployed reinforcements and heavy weaponry to Kaniola and Walungu town to launch counterattacks on Wazalendos on June 28.[v]  

Major Political Developments

Corneille Nangaa, the head of M23’s political branch, gave a speech calling for solutions to the “real causes” of conflict after the United States brokered a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. Nangaa called the peace agreement a “useful” step forward but “limited” in nature because it addresses only a “small part” of the “real causes” of the M23 conflict in the eastern DRC.[vi] Nangaa characterized the notion that the conflict in the eastern DRC is mainly between the DRC and Rwanda as “deception.”[vii] Nangaa criticized the economic aspects of the US-brokered agreement as an “attempted selloff” of Congolese natural resources by DRC President Félix Tshisekedi in a bid to “satisfy ambition and maintain the power of one individual.”[viii] Nangaa accused the DRC government of trying to undermine and “systematically torpedo” Qatari-mediated peace talks with the DRC government.[ix] Nangaa said that M23’s “legitimate demands remain” and that they would not be addressed without an inter-Congolese dialogue.[x] Nangaa claimed that M23 administers more than 13,000 square miles of territory with more than 11 million people in the eastern DRC.[xi]

Data Cutoff: June 27, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The United States brokered a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on the outskirts of Bukavu in South Kivu. M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters south of Bukavu in Walungu district. France plans to host an international humanitarian conference on the DRC and invite the Congolese and Rwandan presidents.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on the outskirts of Bukavu in South Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendos in the Cirunga group in Kabare district—roughly six miles west of Bukavu—on June 26.[i] Wazalendo fighters have clashed with M23 on the outskirts of Bukavu since mid-June.[ii]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters south of Bukavu in Walungu district. The Congolese media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in Cagala village on June 26.[iii] Cagala is about 2 miles from Walungu town on a local road and 21 miles southwest of Bukavu on the RN2 in Walungu district.

Major Political Developments

The United States brokered a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe to sign the agreement in Washington, DC, on June 27.[iv] The peace agreement builds on efforts by the United States and Qatar in the last several months. Qatar brokered a ceasefire between the DRC and Rwanda in mid-March 2025 that laid the groundwork for dialogue before the United States took lead.[v] The DRC and Rwanda have worked to finalize the text of the US-brokered agreement since the two sides signed a declaration of principles agreement under US mediation in late April.[vi] A heads of state signing ceremony with US President Donald Trump, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi, and Rwandan President Paul Kagame is tentatively scheduled for July in Washington, DC.[vii]

The peace deal includes a regional economic framework that aims to spur economic growth and facilitate US and regional investment in the DRC and Rwanda. The economic aspects of the deal focus on US investment in the upstream and midstream aspects of each country’s critical mineral supply chains.[viii] The French investigate outlet Africa Intelligence reported in late May that Tshisekedi offered the United States a mineral deal worth $3 trillion.[ix] The agreement also includes US investment and cooperation between the three countries in sectors such as national park management and hydroelectric power in the region.[x]

France plans to host an international humanitarian conference on the situation in the DRC in late July. Africa Intelligence reported that French President Emmanuel Macron seeks to host international organizations and African countries, including Tshisekedi and Kagame, for a humanitarian summit on July 25.[xi]