Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: February 21, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: M23 captured two villages east of the RN2 in Lubero district in northern North Kivu Province in an attempt to flank Congolese army (FARDC) positions in the district capital, Lubero town. The Burundian army retreated into a defensive posture and accelerated the withdrawal of its troops from South Kivu. M23 advanced through rural localities to open a second front against a key FARDC position in Walikale district of western North Kivu. The United States sanctioned a Rwandan official and an M23 official central who are key to M23 military and economic operations. East African Community (EAC) defense ministers met to discuss peace initiatives ahead of a joint EAC-Southern African Development Community defense ministers meeting next week.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

M23 rebels captured Katondi village, 3 miles north of Kitsombiro on the RN2 road in Lubero district, and advanced roughly 7 miles east to seize the villages of Kasima and Kipese on February 20.[1] M23’s advance through Kipese opens two routes toward Butembo that bypass FARDC positions on the RN2 road and in Lubero town to the west of M23’s advance.[2] M23’s flanking maneuver around Lubero town also allows the rebel group to avoid Ugandan troops who are stationed in the town.[3] Local media reported that Ugandan troops are stationed in Lubero strictly to secure the town from disorderly FARDC soldiers, however, and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said on February 21 that Uganda’s military presence in the eastern DRC “has nothing to do” with fighting M23.[4]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

French media reported that the Burundian army (FDNB) is “accelerating” its withdrawal from South Kivu and “adopting only a defensive position on its own territory” at the DRC-Burundi border on February 21 as M23 advances towards Uvira town.[5] The French news outlet Le Monde quoted a senior Burundian military officer who criticized FARDC as “totally disorganized” and said that M23’s advance in the Rusizi plain in South Kivu put pressure on FNDB’s supply lines and risked “trapping” Burundian soldiers in the Rusizi Plain.[6]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 forces advanced westward roughly 16 miles from Rusamambu village in the Walikale district of western North Kivu and captured Bukumbirwa and Ngerere localities near the Kisimba-Ikobo Primate Reserve after clashing with Wazalendo militia fighters on February 21.[7] M23's advance has opened a second route toward the FARDC base in Pinga town, which lies roughly 18 miles south of Bukumbirwa along a forested route through the primate reserve.[8] Pinga is operationally significant as it hosts an airstrip, an army base, and a hospital and would be a staging ground for M23 expansion deeper into mineral-rich Walikale territory or Maniema, South Kivu, and Tshopo provinces.[9] M23 advanced within 6 miles of Pinga from the east along the RP1030 road in the Masisi district in October 2024 and shelled the town but failed to capture it.[10]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The United States sanctioned retired Rwandan General James Kabarebe and M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka Kingston on February 20.[11] The United States said that Kabarebe is a liaison to M23, orchestrates Rwandan military support for the group, and manages M23 mineral revenue from his official position as Rwanda’s Minister of State for Regional Integration.[12] The United States also sanctioned two businesses affiliated with Kanyuka.[13] DRC communications minister Patrick Muyaya said the US sanctions are only “the first step” to pressure Rwanda to withdraw its troops from the eastern DRC.[14] The Rwandan foreign ministry said that the sanctions were “unjustified” and represented “unwarranted external interference” in the search for a peace agreement within various multilateral initiatives.[15]

East African Community (EAC) defense ministers from seven member states met in Nairobi, Kenya on February 21 to discuss implementing the provisions from the joint EAC-Southern African Development Community (SADC) communiqué in mid-February.[16] The Rwandan Ministry of Defense said in a statement on February 21 that the joint EAC-SADC defense ministers meeting is scheduled for February 24 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.[17]

Data Cutoff: February 20, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on Twitter, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: M23 is attempting to flank Congolese positions after the Congolese army (FARDC) launched limited counterattacks south of the district capital, Lubero, in northern North Kivu province in the eastern DRC. FARDC troops clashed with pro-DRC militia fighters in Uvira town in South Kivu as FARDC troops fled to Burundi and further south on Lake Tanganyika. M23 captured a village in the Walikale district in western North Kivu that is located near a gateway town to Maniema and Tshopo provinces.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

The Congolese army (FARDC) launched a combined air and ground counterattack to push M23 militants roughly 3 miles south from Katondi to Kitsombiro town in the Lubero district but failed to dislodge the rebels from Kitsombiro on February 19.[1] Kitsombiro lies 15 miles south of Lubero town. that M23 units were flanking FARDC defensive positions north of Kitsombiro in several villages 2 to 16 miles east of Kitsombiro and bypassing Lubero entirely on the way to Butembo on February 20.[2] Butembo is 23 miles from Lubero and a major commercial and logistics hub in North Kivu with a population of 150,000.[3]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

FARDC soldiers clashed with pro-Congolese government militia fighters in Uvira town on Lake Tanganyika on February 20.[4] Militia fighters reportedly tried to stop an unknown number of FARDC soldiers fleeing with valuable military equipment to Burundi and further south in the eastern DRC towards the towns of Kalemie and Moba on Lake Tanganyika.[5] Local media reported that Congolese militia fighters control several neighborhoods in Uvira and are looting local businesses and homes.[6]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government forces and captured the town of Rusamambu on February 20 in the Walikale district of western North Kivu.[7] Rusamambu is roughly 20 miles from Pinga, a garrison town in the adjacent Masisi district that provides an entry point into Maniema and Tshopo provinces.[8] M23 has maintained pressure around Pinga since October 2024.[9] Congolese media reported that civilians from Walikale district have fled from M23’s advance in the area towards Lubutu district in northern Maniema province in recent days.[10]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamitunga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Contributor: Liam Karr

Data Cutoff: February 19, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on Twitter, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

The Congo War Security Review is a daily review of activity related to the war in the eastern DRC between M23 and its Rwandan backers and pro-Congolese government forces. Map shapefiles are available by request via email at criticalthreats.aei.org.

Key Takeaway: M23 rapidly advanced in the face of retreating Congolese forces toward Uvira, a commercial hub on Lake Tanganyika and the second-largest city in South Kivu. M23 also made gains towards Lubero, a district capital in North Kivu along the road to the major commercial city Butembo.

Source: Liam Karr; Nick Markiewicz and Yale Ford.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni

M23 captured the town of Kitsombiro in Lubero territory, located about 15 miles south of Lubero town.[1] Lubero town is the last military stronghold before the city of Butembo, an important commercial center located about 28 miles north of Lubero town via the RN2.[2] A Congolese army (FARDC) spokesperson reported that FARDC sent reinforcements from the city of Beni to reinforce Lubero town. The rebels also clashed with Congolese forces (FARDC) two miles southeast of Kitsombiro in the village of Lubango/Lobango.[3]

Source: Liam Karr; Nick Markiewicz and Yale Ford.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka

M23 forces arrived in the village of Sange, located about 22 miles north of the town of Uvira, after traveling south from Bukavu via the RN5.[4] The FARDC retreated from Uvira earlier on February 19 and headed to the major trading city of Kalemie, capital of the Tanganyika province, which is about 240 miles south of Uvira via the RN5.[5] Most residents have fled from Uvira into neighboring Burundi. Pro-DRC Wazalendo militias have remained in Uvira to defend the town.[6]

Source: Liam Karr; Nick Markiewicz and Yale Ford.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamitunga-Shabunda

Nothing significant to report.