Iran Update, March 23, 2024

CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on March 23 and 24, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, March 25, 2024.

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued its operation in and around al Shifa Hospital on March 23.
• West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters during a raid targeting an unspecified “wanted individual” in Tulkarm in the West Bank on March 22.
• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 22.
• Yemen: CENTCOM reported that the Houthis launched four anti-ship ballistic missiles into the Red Sea but added that the Houthi attacks did not damage any military or commercial vessels.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued its weeklong operation in and around al Shifa Hospital on March 23.[i] The 401st Brigade (162nd Division) and Israeli special operations forces cleared areas surrounding al Shifa Hospital and arrested fighters who had returned to the hospital.[ii] The 401st Brigade raided nearby buildings and seized weapons.[iii] The IDF also established an evacuation route for civilians to leave the hospital compound.[iv] Israeli forces killed approximately 170 fighters and detained approximately 800 suspects during the operation, which began on March 18.[v]

Palestinian fighters continued to attack Israeli forces that were conducting clearing operations around al Shifa Hospital on March 23.[vi]

The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) continued clearing operations in the central Gaza Strip on March 23.[vii] The IDF reported that the Nahal Brigade engaged in “intense fighting” in unspecified areas of the central Gaza Strip and killed 15 Palestinian fighters. The Nahal Brigade also directed an airstrike targeting Palestinian fighters barricaded in a building.

The 7th Brigade (36th Division) continued clearing operations in Qarara, Khan Younis Governorate, on March 23.[viii] The IDF Air Force struck two Palestinian fighters moving towards their forces and to target a "military building" that belonged to a Hamas fighter in Qarara.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters during a raid targeting an unspecified “wanted individual” in Tulkarm in the West Bank on March 22.[ix] Palestinian media separately reported that unspecified Palestinian militia fighters fired small arms targeting an IDF checkpoint near Jenin on March 23.[x]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 22.[xi]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

US CENTCOM conducted preemptive strikes targeting four Houthi drones and three underground storage facilities in Houthi-controlled Yemen on March 22.[xii]

CENTCOM reported separately that the Houthis launched four anti-ship ballistic missiles into the Red Sea but added that the Houthi attacks did not damage any military or commercial vessels.[xiii]