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June 12, 2009
Iranian Presidential Election Polling Data
The Islamic Republic of Iran will hold its 10th presidential election on June 12, 2009. On May 21, the Guardian Council will select the candidates allowed to run for office, leaving three weeks for candidates to campaign.
The IranTracker team has collected all available polling information on the Iranian election. Much of it is unscientific, biased, and inaccurate; however, the numbers do reveal snapshots, trends, and potential outcomes.
Please see Ali Alfoneh's Middle East Outlook examining how the real winner of the election will be Khamenei.
A roundup of election-related news, candidate bios, and news specific to each campaign can be found here.
Please contact the IranTracker team with any questions or comments on this polling information.
Polling Data
Poll Type |
Date |
Khatami*
|
Qalibaf*
|
||||
| IranTracker Poll Average (Unscientific) | 40.6 | 35.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 36.1 | 9.6 | |
| Aftab News | June 11 | 34.6 | 50.3 | 8.2 | 6.9 | - | - |
| Fars News | June 10 | 52.8 | 25.5 | 3.2 | 6.3 | - | - |
| Fars News | June 10 | 54 | 43 | - | - | - | - |
| Fars News | June 10 | 54 | 33 | 6.1 | 3.2 | - | - |
| Alef News | June 6 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fars News | June 2 | 53 | 36 | 3 | 2 | - | - |
| Ayandeh News | Week of May 25 | 34 | 38 | - | - | - | - |
| Terror Free Tomorrow / New America Foundation | May 11-20 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 1 | - | - |
| IRIB (Tehran only) | Week of May 18 | 44 | 47 | - | - | - | - |
| Alef News | May 17-18 | 54.5 | 22 | 3.2 | 2 | - | - |
| Entekhab News | May 17-18 | 23.9 | 27.8 | 22.8 | 25.5 | - | - |
Teribon Isfahan University Poll (Non-internet student poll) |
May 14 |
21.2 |
58.49 |
9.35 |
1.02 |
- |
- |
Webgozar Internet Poll |
May 14 |
19.8 |
69.7 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
- |
- |
Teribon.com Internet Poll |
May 12 |
42 |
16.2 |
19.7 |
3.2 |
- |
- |
IRNA Student Poll |
May 4 |
51.3 |
26.4 |
17.5 |
8.4 |
- |
- |
Sada va Sima (IRIB) |
May 3-4 |
58.2 |
21.9 |
3.6 |
1.4 |
- |
- |
Labor Union Association |
April 10 |
36 |
52 |
8 |
- |
- |
- |
University Polling Association |
April 9-10 |
46.9 |
15.7 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
- |
12.9 |
Tabnak Internet Poll |
March 17 |
15.1 |
23.8 |
2.6 |
- |
51.7 |
- |
University Polling Association |
February - March |
44.5 |
8.2 |
1 |
- |
20.5 |
6.3 |
Tehran University Faculty and Students |
February 26 |
17.6 |
72.1 |
6.9 |
- |
- |
- |
*Khatami and Qalibaf are shown for comparison purposes only, as they are not seeking the presidency this election.
DETAILED POLLING INFORMATION
Fars News Agency
June 10
http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8803201253
Participants: All provinces, two cities and two villages in each province
- Ahmadinejad: 52.8%
- Mousavi: 25.5%
- Rezai: 6.3%
- Karrubi: 3.2%
Fars News Agency
June 10
http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8803201253
Participants: Employees of ministries
- Ahmadinejad: 54%
- Mousavi: 43%
Fars News Agency
June 10
http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8803201253
Participants: 46 cities
- Ahmadinejad: 54%
- Mousavi: 33%
- Karrubi: 6.1%
- Rezai: 3.2%
Aftab News Agency
June 8-9
http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdcb5sb9.rhbg0piuur.html
Participants: 36,000 people in 14 provinces (the capital of a province, one major city, one town, and three villages).
- Mousavi: 50.3%
- Ahmadinejad: 34.6%
- Karrubi: 8.2%
- Rezai: 6.9%
Provincial breakdown:
Province |
Ahmadinejad |
Rezai |
Karrubi |
Mousavi |
Tehran |
27.3 |
7.7 |
10.4 |
5406 |
Esfahan |
37.4 |
7.1 |
10.1 |
45.4 |
West Azerbaijan |
22.5 |
3.4 |
4.9 |
69.2 |
East Azerbaijan |
19.7 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
72.3 |
Khorasan Razavi |
40.2 |
5.2 |
8.6 |
46 |
Yazd |
25.1 |
5.0 |
9.2 |
60.7 |
Ardabil |
26.6 |
3.9 |
7.3 |
62.2 |
Zanjan |
27.4 |
3.1 |
6.9 |
62.6 |
Fars |
30.2 |
8.4 |
8.8 |
52.6 |
Semnan |
64.8 |
7.2 |
5.1 |
22.9 |
Gilan |
26.5 |
5.6 |
11.0 |
56.9 |
Mazandaran |
43.1 |
8.2 |
10.4 |
38.3 |
Hormozgan |
30.2 |
10.4 |
12.9 |
46.5 |
Khuzestan |
29.8 |
22.5 |
10.5 |
37.2 |
Alef News Agency
June 6
http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/47142/
Participants: 30 cities
- Ahmadinejad: 63%
- Incomplete information on remaining candidates
Fars News
June 2, 2009
http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/46964/
- Ahmadinejad: 53 %
- Mousavi: 36%
- Karrubi: 3%
- Rezai: 2%
Ayandeh News
Week of May 25, 2009
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96057§ionid=351020101
Participants: 10 cities
- Mousavi: 38%
- Ahmadinejad: 34%
Terror Free Tomorrow / New American Foundation
May 11-20, 2009
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/TFT-NAF%20Iran%20Survey%20Report%20.pdf
Participants: 1001 Iranian adults from a random national sample, interviewed by telephone
- Ahmadinejad: 34%
- Mousavi: 14%
- Karrubi: 2%
- Rezai: 1%
IRIB
Week of May 18, 2009
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96057§ionid=351020101
(Tehran Only)
- Mousavi: 47%
- Ahmadinejad: 43%
Alef News Agency
May 17-18, 2009
http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/45908/
Participants:15,000
- Ahmadinejad: 54.5%
- Mousavi: 22%
- Karrubi: 3.2%
- Rezai: 2%
Entekhab News
May 17-18, 2009
http://www.entekhabnews.com/portal/index.php?news=4772
- Mousavi: 27.8
- Rezai: 25.5
- Ahmadinejad: 23.9
- Karrubi: 22.8
Teribon Poll at Isfahan University:
May 14, 2009
Non-Internet poll of students at Isfahan University
Participants: 2564
· Mousavi: 58.49% - 1313 votes
· Ahmadinejad: 21.2% - 476 votes
· Karrubi: 9.35% - 210 votes
· Rezai: 1.02% - 23 votes
Teribon Internet Poll
As of May 14, 2009 – 11:51 a.m.
http://teribon.com/1388/02/22/nazarsanj-2/
Participants: 3161 (unscientific Internet poll)
If you could go back to four years ago, who would you vote for?
· Ahmadinejad: 32% - 1,003 votes
· Rafsanjani: 29% - 902 votes
· Moein: 17% - 540 votes
· Qalibaf: 7% - 214 votes
· Larijani: 1% - 42 votes
· Rezai: 1% - 35 votes
· Mehr Alizada: 1% - 19 votes
Webgozar Internet Poll
As of May 14, 2009 – 11:43 a.m.
http://www.webgozar.com/poll/result.aspx
Participants: 2682 (unscientific Internet poll)
· Ahmadinejad: 19.8% - 521 votes
· Mousavi: 69.7% - 521 votes
· Karrubi: 3.8% - 100 votes
· Rezai: 2.6% - 60 votes
· Not taking part: 3.9% - 105 votes
Teribon Internet Poll
May 12, 2009
http://teribon.com/1388/02/22/nazarsanj-2/
· Ahmadinejad: 42%
· Karrubi 19.7%
· Mousavi: 16.2%
· Rezai: 3.2%
Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA):
May 4, 2009
http://iran-tejarat.com/News/Cat11/News24715.html
Conducted in 13 universities in Tehran from April 26, 2009 to April 29, 2009
Participants: 1370
· Ahmadinejad: 51.3%
· Mousavi: 26.4%
· Karrubi: 17.5%
· Rezai: 8.4%
· 91% certainly will take part in voting; 6.3 will not; 4.5 undecided
· 41.3% of participants were male; 58.7% female
· 62.7% under 35 years of age; 21% between 35-45; and 3.16% over 46
Sada va Sima Organization (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting - IRIB)
May 3-4, 2009
Conducted in 62 cities
Participants: 23,898
Who would you like to stand as a candidate?
· Ahmadinejad: 46.7%
· Mousavi: 13%
· Khatami: 7.2%
· Karrubi : 1.9%
Will you participate in election?
· 77% certainly or very likely to take part
Who would you like to vote for?
· Ahmadinejad: 58.2%
· Mousavi: 21.9%
· Karrubi: 3.6%
· Rezai: 1.4%
· Valayati: 1.4%
Kayhan
April 23, 2009
http://www.aftabnews.ir/prtjxteo.uqeaozsffu.html
On voter turnout
· 43.9% definitely will take part
· 21.6% strongly likely
· 17.2% uncertain
· 9.5% unlikely
· 11.1% not interested
· 3% not responded
Iran News Roundup April 21 – 22, 2009:
An unnamed academic research center's poll shows 60 percent interest in participation in presidential elections.
Labor Union Association
April 9-10
http://emruz.biz/ShowItem.aspx?ID=21518&p=1
· Mousavi: 52%
· Ahmadinejad: 36%
· Karrubi: 8%
· 62.2% will participate in election
· 57.3% believe labors’ conditions have worsened in the current administration compared in the previous one
· 37.4% believe Ahmadinejad is a supporter of the destitute, but didn’t have the opportunity in this term to serve the poor
· 48.2% say the best government is a government that fights inflation and improves living conditions of labors
University Polling Association
April 9-10 and early March
http://www.payanews.com/?id=146
Candidate |
April 9-10 |
Early March |
Ahmadinejad |
46.9 |
44.5 |
Mousavi |
15.7 |
8.2 |
Khatami |
- |
20.5 |
Qalibaf |
12.9 |
6.3 |
Valayati |
2.1 |
2.2 |
Larijani |
4.4 |
- |
Karrubi |
1.4 |
1 |
Rezai |
0.9 |
- |
None |
10.9 |
6.6 |
Don’t know |
5.1 |
4.9 |
Tabnak News Agency
March 20, 2009
http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=40865
Unscientific Internet poll
· Mousavi: 23.8%
· Ahmadinejad: 15.1%
· Mehdi Karrubi: 2.6%
Iran News Roundup March 19, 2009:
· An opinion poll shows 57% of Khatami supporters will vote for Qalibaf should he run for the post. The figure is down to 49% in some large cities. Twenty nine percent of Khatami’s supporters will now back Mir-Hossein Mousavi, while 14% are divided between those backing Mehdi Karrubi and those undecided or unwilling to take part in the polls.
Tabnak News Agency
March 17, 2009
http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/print.php?cid=40865
Unscientific Internet poll conducted for 72 hours
Participants: 54407
· Khatami: 51.7%
· Mousavi: 23.8%
· Ahmadinejad : 15.1%
· Coalition government: 6.8%
· Karrubi: 2.6%
The Islamic Students Association of Tehran University and Medical Faculty of Tehran:
http://news.iran-emrooz.net/index.php?/news2/17844/
February 26, 2009
Participants: 5167
· Mousavi: 72.1%
· Ahmadinejad: 17.6%
· Karrubi: 6.9%
· It gives details of polling figures at each faculty
Teribon
January 24, 2009
http://teribon.com/1387/11/04/nazar/
Unscientific Internet poll between reformist candidates
Participants: 2276
· Khatami: 33% - 743 votes
· Mousavi: 26% - 603 votes
· Karrubi: 22% - 499 votes
· Abdullah Noori: 19% - 431 votes