Africa File

• Niger. JNIM claimed an attack on a border post in northern Niger near the border with Algeria, marking the group’s first attack in far northern Niger. Nigerien Tuareg rebels also gave a competing claim for the attack but failed to provide evidence. The competing claims possibly indicate that the two groups are coordinating their operations, as Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) has done with Tuareg rebels in Mali. JNIM and the Nigerien Tuareg rebels have similar short-term economic and military objectives that involve a common enemy in the Alliance of Sahel States that could encourage cooperation to augment their capacity and capabilities in northern Niger. Both groups have mutual ties with the Malian Tuareg rebels and shared ethnic bonds that could facilitate this link.

• DRC. The DRC and Rwanda agreed to move forward in Angolan-mediated peace negotiations, but a lasting agreement remains unlikely in the short term as the parties still disagree on key aspects of the proposed deal. The Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebels also launched a new offensive on the Congolese army (FARDC) and its allied militia groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which risks derailing the Luanda Process by ending a ceasefire that has been in place since August. The M23 rebels likely launched the offensive on October 20 to increase pressure on the DRC and influence the Luanda Process negotiations.

• Djibouti. Djibouti and Egypt signed a contract to construct a solar power plant in Djibouti on October 14, representing growing electricity cooperation between Egypt and Djibouti since 2019. The contract is part of a changing balance in the Ethiopia-Djibouti partnership as both countries seek to reduce their reliance on each other. Egypt has also sought to increase ties with Djibouti over the past several years as part of its efforts to counter and isolate Ethiopia.

• AUSSOM. Somalia and Ethiopia are likely trying to win support for their separate visions on Ethiopia’s involvement in the new AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia. Somalia plans to exclude Ethiopia from the new mission and replace its contingent with Egyptian troops in retaliation for Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland, which Somalia has repeatedly called illegal. Regional and international partners disagree on Somalia’s plan to replace Ethiopia with Egypt as the November 15 deadline to submit the mission plans to the UN Security Council approaches.

• Somalia. The SFG and allied local clan militias have increased operations since October to clear contested areas that serve as a buffer zone and al Shabaab staging ground between key government-held district capitals and al Shabaab’s last remaining stronghold in central Somalia. Somali forces continue to face major political and military challenges to sustaining offensive operations and holding territory.

Read the full article here