Gulf of Aden Security Review
A regularly updated review of both Yemen and the Horn of Africa covering topics related to security, governance, and militant activity.
Yemen: Yemeni President Hadi attempts to unify the GPC under his leadership and isolate the STC; AQAP maintains more influence in Yemen than ISIS according to UN report; U.S. policy makers request clarification on the U.S. involvement in the Yemen war
Horn of Africa: UN report finds al Shabaab enhanced its capabilities and maintains influence in Somalia; ISIS generates $72,000 a month by extorting businesses in northern Somalia; U.S. authorities arrest refugee couple for lying to immigration officers about alleged ties to al Shabaab; UAE plans oil pipeline connecting Ethiopia to Eritrea
Yemen Security Brief
Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi called on the members of the General People’s Congress (GPC), primarily supporters of the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, to support his government and defeat the al Houthi movement during his visit to Cairo, Egypt on August 13 and 14. Sources within the GPC claim that many GPC leaders boycotted the meeting with Hadi and will not agree to a united GPC party under his leadership. Sources close to Hadi also claim that he plans to unite the Islah Party with his government and remove the Transitional Political Party for the South (STC) from political negotiations. U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Matthew Tueller also met with Hadi while he was in Cairo, Egypt. Ambassador Tueller expressed support for Hadi’s efforts to unify the GPC, according to a Hadi government press statement.[1]
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) maintains more influence in Yemen than the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), according to a UN report. The report on ISIS and al Qaeda by the UN’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring team also stated that AQAP maintains a strong organizational and leadership structure, which will likely increase the threat from AQAP over time. This strength may also encourage ISIS supporters to join AQAP, further weakening ISIS in Yemen. ISIS in Yemen reportedly commands only 250 to 500 members while AQAP commands 6,000 to 7,000 militants. The UN report stated that AQAP seeks to build a reputation for “humanitarianism and governance” in Yemen, whereas ISIS’s “extreme ideology and brutality” discourages Yemeni recruits.[2]
Senator Elizabeth Warren requested clarification on past congressional testimony regarding the U.S. role in the Yemen war in a letter to the head of the U.S. Central Command General Joseph Votel on August 14. Sources from the Pentagon previously stated that the U.S. does not track how Saudi Arabia uses American weapons. U.S. intelligence personnel are stationed in Saudi airstrike command centers. U.S. Congressman Ted Lieu (D-CA) demanded the Pentagon investigate U.S. involvement in Saudi-led coalition airstrikes, which have hit civilian targets on several occasions. Lieu called for an investigation into whether U.S. personnel working with the coalition were abiding by Department of Defense (DoD) guidelines in a letter drafted to the Inspector General of the DoD. The congressman is concerned about legal ramifications for U.S. complicity in war crimes committed by American partners.[3]
Horn of Africa Security Brief
Al Shabaab has enhanced its capabilities and maintained its influence in Somalia, according to a UN report. The report on ISIS and al Qaeda by the UN’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team also stated that al Shabaab adopted a new strategy of operating in small teams after 200 al Shabaab militants were killed or injured in early 2018. Al Shabaab mainly sources weapons and ammunition from local militias, Somali army defectors, and smuggling from Libya and Yemen. The UN team also reported that the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) is weak in the country but Somalia will likely be a future focus for ISIS operations. ISIS in Somalia relies on criminal activity and limited support from ISIS in Yemen to fund its operations, according to the report.[4]
ISIS militants in Somalia are taxing businesses in , Puntland, northern Somalia, according to a local news source. ISIS also shut down a telecommunications tower 75 kilometers east of Boosaaso in early August and may have been responsible for the August 7 assassination of the deputy manager of the company that owns the tower. ISIS militants are generating $72,000 a month in revenue by extorting business and wealthy individuals, according to anonymous Puntland security officials.[5]
U.S. authorities arrested a refugee couple for lying to immigration officers about alleged ties to al Shabaab on August 10. Mohamed Abdirahman Osman, who was living in Tucson, reportedly moved to Mogadishu from Jijiga in Ethiopia’s Somali State after being recruited by al Shabaab. Osman was injured while handling explosives in 2009, according to a U.S. indictment.[6]
The UAE is planning on building an oil pipeline connecting Eritrea’s to the capital of Ethiopia, . Ethiopia began extracting crude oil from its southeastern regions in June. Ethiopian media announced the plan on August 10 after Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Emirati Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem al Hashimy.[7]
[1] “Presidential efforts to unify the General Peoples Congress party,” Mareb Press, August 14, 2018, https://marebpress.net/news_details.php?lang=arabic&sid=140739; “President Hadi sends an important invitation to all the leaders and members of the Congress Party,” Mareb Press, August 14, 2018, https://marebpress.net/news_details.php?lang=arabic&sid=140739; “Hadi and Sisi meet and confidential information reveals a conspiracy of the STC to be removed from the political scene,” Hadramout Net, August 14, 2018, https://www.7adramout.net/salmashhad/1989164/%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AB%D8%A7%D8%A1-1482018--%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D9%88%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%AA%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8.html; “A Consensus on the refusal of Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi leadership of the GPC,” Barakish Net, August 15, 2018, http://www.barakish.net/news.aspx?cat=12&sub=23&id=551090; and “The President of the Republic receives the American Ambassador to our country,” Official Website of the President of the Republic of Yemen, August 14, 2018, https://presidenthadi-gov-ye.info/ar/archives/%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A8%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83-28/.
[2] “Letter dated 16 July 2018 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 1267 (1999), 1989 (2011) and 2253 (2015) concerning Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals, groups, undertakings and entities addressed to the President of the Security Council,” United Nations Security Council, July 27, 2018, http://undocs.org/S/2018/705.
[3] Alex Emmons, “Elizabeth Warren demands in letter that U.S. military explain its role in Yemen bombings,” The Intercept, August 14, 2018, https://theintercept.com/2018/08/14/elizabeth-warren-yemen-bombing-us-military/; “A member of U.S. Congress: The Pentagon is involved in coalition attacks on Yemen,” 26 September, http://26sep.net/news_details.php?lang=arabic&sid=140285; and “Rep Lieu calls for DOD IG Investigation Into U.S. Role in Civilian Casualties In Yemen,” Ted Lieu, https://lieu.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/rep-lieu-calls-dod-investigation-uss-role-civilian-casualties-yemen.
[4] “Letter dated 16 July 2018 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 1267 (1999), 1989 (2011) and 2253 (2015) concerning Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals, groups, undertakings and entities addressed to the President of the Security Council,” United Nations Security Council, July 27, 2018, http://undocs.org/S/2018/705.
[5] “Somalia: ISIL-linked faction imposes tax on businesses in Bosaso,” Garowe Online, August 15, 2018, https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/puntland/somalia-isil-linked-faction-impose-taxes-on-businesses-in-bosaso.
[6] “Feds arrest Tucson man for links to Somali terrorist group,” The Arizona Daily Star, August 12, 2018, https://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2018/Aug/159503/feds_arrest_tucson_man_for_links_to_somali_terrorist_group.aspx.
[7] “Assab to Addis Ababa: UAE plans Ethiopia-Eritrea oil pipeline,” Africa News, August 11, 2018, http://www.africanews.com/2018/08/11/assab-to-addis-ababa-uae-plans-ethiopia-eritrea-oil-pipeline/.
