Gulf of Aden Security Review

Yemen: Qatari-owned media reports possible changes in the PLC; Houthis object to Saudi “buffer zone” proposal; Houthis accuse UK of “hindering peace efforts”; AQAP targets UAE-backed forces with IED; UAE-backed forces begin counterterrorism operation in Shabwah

Somalia: Al Shabaab targets Mogadishu mayor’s headquarters in latest siege; Somali forces secure a village in southwestern Somalia to use as a launching pad for future operations; Somali forces with international partner air support clear al Shabaab–controlled areas in north-central Somalia; Somali special forces withdraw from key village in north-central Somalia one day after al Shabaab suicide raid targeting their base

Yemen Security Brief:

Qatari-owned, London-based al Araby al Jadeed reported on January 20 that the Saudi-led coalition may choose to downsize the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC).[i] The rumored downsizing would decrease the number of PLC deputies from seven to two, with one deputy representing the north and another representing the south. Al Araby al Jadeed’s sources reported the southern deputy would likely be Southern Transitional Council President Aydarus al Zubaidi, while the north may be represented by either UAE-backed National Resistance Forces leader Tariq Saleh or Ma’rib Governor Sultan al Arada.

The Houthis objected to a Saudi-proposed “border buffer zone” as part of peace negotiations on January 21.[ii] Houthi official media claimed the border zone would “rob Yemen of its rights and wealth.” The Houthis reported that Saudi Arabia seeks a 20km-wide buffer zone.

The Houthis accused the United Kingdom of “hindering peace efforts” on January 21.[iii] Houthi media criticized the British ambassador to Yemen’s support for the Yemeni government’s economic decisions. The Yemeni government’s economic decisions seek to offset a decrease in revenue caused by Houthi drone attacks on oil export facilities in Fall 2022.[iv]

Likely al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) fighters detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a UAE-backed Shabwani Defense Forces convoy in al Majaza, al Rawdha district, Shabwah governorate, southern Yemen, on January 21.[v] The IED wounded four Shabwani Defense fighters.[vi]

The Shabwani Defense Forces began a counterterrorism operation in Nissab district, Shabwah governorate, on January 22.[vii] The operation aims to block AQAP fighters fleeing STC-backed counterterrorism operations in Abyan governorate, according to southern Yemeni media.

Somalia Security Brief:

Five al Shabaab gunmen and one suicide bomber disguised as Somali soldiers targeted the mayor’s headquarters in a siege in Mogadishu on January 22.[viii] Hamar Weyne district, Mogadishu. Turkish-trained Haram’ad special police ended the siege after four hours and displayed the bodies of all the alleged al Shabaab militants.[ix] Al Shabaab claimed the attack killed 34 people, while the government claimed it only killed 6.[x]

Somali National Army (SNA) and Jubbaland State forces peacefully secured Janay Abdalle, Afmadow district, Lower Jubba region, southwestern Somalia, on January 21.[xi] The village is near the midpoint of the road linking the regional capital Kismayo to Afmadow. The Jubbaland Darawish spokesperson said the capture of Janay Abdalle is the beginning of an offensive against al Shabaab in Lower Jubba.[xii] The Somali forces reportedly built a base in the town for upcoming operations in Afmadow district.[xiii] Al Shabaab has controlled the town and surrounding area since 2020.

Somali special forces, Galmudug State forces, and local militia, with international partner air support, cleared several villages in Harardhere district, Mudug region, north-central Somalia, on January 23.[xiv] The operation reportedly cleared five villages and killed at least 40 al Shabaab militants.

US-trained Danab special forces and Turkish-trained Gorgor special forces withdrew from Gal’ad, El Dheere district, north-central Somalia, on January 21, following a large-scale al Shabaab suicide raid targeting their bases on January 20.[xv] The forces re-established new bases near the Middle Shabelle-Galgudud regional border.[xvi]