Gulf of Aden Security Review

Yemen: UAE-backed southern government forms national assembly and plans independence referendum; al Houthi movement leader vilifies the West; Salafi militia withdraws from part of eastern Taiz city, southern Yemen; al Houthi-Saleh forces fire ballistic missile at Saudi Arabia

Horn of Africa: Suspected al Shabaab attack kills over 270 people in Mogadishu; Kenyan police use excessive force against opposition protesters; Kenyan county leader plans to boycott re-run election vote

Yemen Security Brief

Transitional Political Council of the South President Aydarus Qasim al Zubaidi announced the formation of a southern national assembly and an upcoming independence referendum during demonstrations commemorating the October 14 revolution against the British in Aden city, southern Yemen on October 14. The Transitional Political Council of the South is an Emirati-backed governing entity that rivals the internationally recognized Yemeni government in southern Yemen. Zubaidi stated the 303-member national assembly will represent all southern Yemenis. Vice President of the Transitional Political Council of the South Hani Ali Bin Brik added that the assembly will hold its first meeting in November. Southern Yemen activists waved the flags of Kurdistan and Catalonia during the mass rally in Aden.^[1]

Al Houthi movement leader Abdul Malik al Houthi stated that submission is not an escape from the forces of tyranny during a speech commemorating Imam Zaid, the 5th imam of the al Houthi movement’s sect of Islam on October 15. Abdul Malik used the history of Imam Zaid to vilify American and Israeli oppression and to remind his audience of the British occupation. Former president Ali Abdullah Saleh condemned historical western interference in Yemen and blamed the failure of national unity on British colonialism during a speech commemorating the 54th anniversary celebration of the October 14 revolution.^[2] 

The Saudi-led coalition-backed Abu Abbas brigade removed its troops from Taiz University, eastern Taiz city, southern Yemen on October 14. Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi government-aligned militias seized the university from al Houthi-Saleh control in May. Abu Abbas leaders initially refused to hand over control to security forces loyal to the Hadi government on October 12. Abu Abbas is a Salafi militia which cooperates with AQAP in Taiz.^[3]

Al Houthi-Saleh forces fired a Qaher-M2 ballistic missile targeting a Saudi military camp in Jazan region, southern Saudi Arabia on October 14. Al Houthi-Saleh forces also fired a Qaher-M2 ballistic missile at Samta area, Jazan on October 10.^[4]

Horn of Africa Security Brief

Suspected al Shabaab militants detonated two vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), killing over 270 civilians and wounding over 300 others near the Safari hotel in Hodan district, Mogadishu, Somalia on October 14. This marks al Shabaab’s largest attack since its formation in 2006. Al Shabaab has conducted 12 attacks in Mogadishu since October 1. Militants detonated the VBIEDs near several Somali Federal Government’s offices in Mogadishu’s K5 junction. The blasts severely damaged the Qatari embassy in Mogadishu. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a medical plane to transfer wounded Somalis to hospitals in Turkey.^[5] 

Kenyan police used excessive force against opposition protesters, killing over 65 civilians since the August 8 election, according to an October 16 Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch report. Opposition leader Raila Odinga called for daily demonstrations against Kenya’s electoral commission to protest the commission’s leadership.^[6]

Kenya’s Siaya County Assembly Speaker George Okode declared on October 16 that the assembly would block the October 26 re-run election from occurring in the county to force a new election in protest of Kenya’s electoral commission. The Kenyan Constitution requires voting to occur in every precinct for an election to be valid. Kenya’s opposition party controls Siaya county and distrusts the Kenyan electoral commission’s leadership, who administered the nullified August 8 election.^[7]