Pakistan Security Brief
Munter visits Balochistan; Pakistan anticipates confrontation with U.S. over nuclear cutoff treaty; Mullen skips Pakistan in regional tour; Taliban is willing to negotiate; China praises Pakistani cooperation against terror; China offers Pakistan J-10s; Karachi violence continues; Three officers face court martial over PNS Mehran attack; Six militants killed in Kurram clash; Report Identifies radical madrasas; Three NATO tankers torched in Balochistan.
U.S.-Pakistan Relations
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On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter visited the southwestern province of Balochistan. Munter expressed that Balochistan was “very significant” for the U.S. and that the U.S. would continue to supply aid for education and development in the province. The Chief Minister of Balochistan Nawab Aslam Raisani told Munter that no elements of the Quetta Shura Taliban were hiding in Quetta. Raisani emphasized that neither Taliban leader Mullah Omar nor al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri were hiding anywhere in Pakistan.[i]
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Dawn reports that a push in the U.N. General Assembly to cutoff the production of nuclear materials could bring the U.S. and Pakistan to another confrontation. According to Dawn, the initiative has the support of the U.K., U.S., France, and Russia, but it is “not clear if China would back the move to cap Pakistan`s nuclear capability and thus allow India to become the sole legal nuclear power in South Asia.” The article expresses confidence that Pakistan will continue to successfully resist signing the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. The U.S. has allegedly developed a “worst-case scenario” plan involving snatching Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in a time of crisis.[ii]
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Dawn reports that the fact that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen did not visit Pakistan during his last trip in the region marks a “stalemate” in U.S.-Pakistan ties. Mullen visited Afghanistan and Iraq without stopping in Pakistan. Tensions have increased between the two countries in the aftermath of the unilateral U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden.[iii]
Taliban Talks
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The Taliban has reportedly become more amenable to peace talks, based on the condition of U.S. withdrawal timetable. Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid says recent statements showing the Taliban’s willingness to negotiate are unofficial, but he echoes a number of their points.[iv]
China-Pakistan Relations
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On Wednesday, China backed away from previous comments blaming Pakistan-based militants for attacks in Xinjiang, calling Pakistan “a firm partner against terror and religious extremism.” The local government has blamed East Turkistan Islamic Movement militants who allegedly received arms and training in Pakistan. Pakistan responded strongly to the allegations that the militants had been based in Pakistan, immediately sending the Director General of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (DG-ISI) Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha to China to prevent a crisis in the China-Pakistan relationship.[v]
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During Army Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Waheed Arshad’s recent visit in China, China reportedly offered Pakistan a variant of the J-10 fighter. This development would make Pakistan seemingly far less “reliant on the U.S. and Europe for its aircraft requirements…erod[ing] U.S influence over Pakistan in the long term.”[vi]
Karachi
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Four more people were killed across Karachi on Wednesday. The Express Tribune reports that the Frontier Constabulary has been deployed but has yet to arrive in the most violent areas of the city. Leaders of both the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP) have proposed that army personnel be deployed to Karachi to reestablish peace and order. The regional government has reportedly “authorized” President Asif Ali Zardari to mediate the conflict. Dawn reports Zardari may use this as an opportunity to bring the MQM back into the government.[vii]
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Three senior Pakistani naval officers will face court martial in connection with the May 22 terrorist attack on the PNS Mehran base in Karachi. The officers, the base commander Commodore Raja Tahir and two others, are reportedly being tried because they were responsible for the security of the base. Anonymous sources in the Navy have stated the investigation has shown militants had inside help in staging the attack.[viii]
FATA
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On Wednesday, security forces killed six militants in central Kurram Agency. Well over a hundred militants have been killed in the ongoing military offensive in Kurram, which began in early July. On Monday, unidentified militants killed three Turi tribesmen in Munda area near the Afghan border.[ix]
Punjab Madrassas Push Radicalism
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An intelligence report by the Punjab home department detailing the activities of radical madrasas in Punjab has been released. The seminaries have reportedly increased radicalization efforts in the last six weeks. The report suggested different means of regulating the madrassas, including through prosecution under the Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997.[x]
Balochistan
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On Wednesday, gunmen torched three NATO tankers near Dasht. No casualties have been reported, and no group has claimed the attack.[xi]
