Pakistan Security Brief
Presidents Zardari and Karzai discuss Afghan peace plans, Pak-Afghan relations; 200 containers stopped at Afghan Border; TTP calls for negotiations, government to announce response in 2-3 days; Tribal leaders ask government to halt military operations; TTP attack kills 35; Bomb detonated in Nowshera; BLF attacks Sheikh Ali Bin Abdullah’s convoy; LI attacks Kamarkhel Peace Committee members in Takhtaki; Several dead in Karachi; Syrian opposition groups in contact with AQ in Pakistan; Planned protests cancelled; Qadri announces second phase of revolution; Tensions regarding Pak-Iran Gas Pipeline continue; Pakistani army trying to win hearts and minds in South Waziristan; Citizens can report corruption; Pakistan to pay back $520 million in IMF loans; Army scorns Human Rights Watch report.
Pak-Afghan Relations
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On Monday, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and British Prime Minister David Cameron held the third meeting aimed at increasing cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan at the British Prime Minister’s Chequers country retreat near London. The trilateral meeting was held to discuss extremism and growing fears of a regional instability. It was the first meeting to include Afghan and Pakistani military and intelligence chiefs. Prime Minister Cameron announced “an unprecedented level of cooperation” while President Zaradari stated that the two countries were interdependent and that “peace in Afghanistan meant peace in Pakistan.” All three leaders vowed to take the necessary steps to ensure reconciliation and regional stability including opening an office in Doha, Qatar to begin negotiations between the Afghan Taliban and the High Peace Council of Afghanistan. The three leaders asked the Taliban to take the necessary steps to participate in negotiations and will take all the necessary steps to achieve some sort of peace settlement in the next six months. Zardari and Karzai also plan to sign an agreement strengthening economic ties and border management later this year.[1]
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Over 200 Pakistani containers headed for Turkmenistan and other Central Asian states were prohibited from entering Afghanistan on Monday. Afghan officials reportedly stated that the reason for stopping the containers was because Pakistani customs officials denied access to Afghan containers headed to Karachi. [2]
Taliban Negotiations
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On Saturday, officials from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) branches of various political parties asked the government to halt military operations in the tribal areas and hold negotiations with the Taliban to end the violence that has caused the deaths of over 2,200 tribesmen in the last three and a half years.[3]
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On Monday, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, welcomed peace negotiations with the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), and asked government and military officials to let tribal elders to take part in the negotiations. Ehsanullah Ehsan, a spokesman for the TTP, announced his group’s willingness to negotiate, if three senior politicians, Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif, the JUI-F chief and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) leader Syed Munawar Hasan, would serve as guarantors of the process. In the statement, Ehsan said that the TTP “do not trust the army,” and explained their choice of negotiators because “we need solid guarantors who can assure us about the army, because the army is the real power in Pakistan.” TTP officials offered similar peace accords in December, but stated that they would not lay down their weapons until Sharia was implemented. Interior Minister Rehman Malik stated that PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif has refused to be a guarantor of the negotiations. Interior Minister Rehman Malik made a statement Monday saying that the government may be ready to engage the TTP in talks and announcing that it would officially respond to the TTP’s offer of talks “within two to three days.”[4]
Militancy
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In Lakki Marwat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Saturday, TTP militants attacked a military base, killing at least 35 people and wounding dozens. Security officials say that up to thirty TTP members attacked the base, located in Serai Naurang town, with automatic weapons, rocket propelled grenades, and suicide vests. Officials report the clashes killed at least ten civilians, thirteen soldiers, and twelve militants in the attack. TTP spokesperson Ehsanullah Ehsan took responsibility for the attack, as well as Friday’s suicide attack on a mosque in Hangu that killed over 27 and wounded at least 55. He said the assault in Lakki Marwat was “to avenge the death of two Taliban commanders killed in American drone strikes.” A police official reported that the bodies of three militants wearing (undetonated) suicide vests appeared to “belong to a group of Uzbek militants allied with the Taliban.”[5]
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On Saturday, a bomb placed in front of a music store in Iqbal Market in Nowshera detonated, destroying the store and an internet café, and damaging eighteen other shops. Police reported no casualties.[6]
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Late on Friday, assailants from the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) opened fire on Sheikh Ali Bin Abdullah’s convoy as it drove through the Mirani Dam area in Quetta, injuring two Frontier Corps (FC) soldiers. Abdullah is a Qatari dignitary who is visiting the area to hunt houbara bustards. BLF spokesperson Gwaram Baloch said that the BLF attackers were targeting FC soldiers, and not the royal family or its convoy. No members of Abdullah’s entourage were hurt in the attack.[7]
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Eleven Kamarkhel Peace Committee members died Friday when Lashkar-i-Islam militants attacked their strongholds at Lakai Sar, Madai, and Tor Largad in Landi Kotal. Several other peace committee members were injured in the clashes, though militants were unable to seize the strongholds.[8]
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Two soldiers were killed and two more injured when an improvised explosive devise (IED) exploded and destroyed their vehicle in Ghundai village, in the upper Orakzai Agency, on Saturday. In retaliation, security forces attacked the suspected militants in the Dabori suburbs with artillery, and claim to have killed at least eight militants, and destroyed one militant vehicle.[9]
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Sixteen mortar shells fired from across the border in Afghanistan killed six people and injured four others when they landed in Baghar village in South Waziristan late Friday evening. Tribesmen in Angoor Adda confirmed the official report, and said it was yet unclear who fired the shells.[10]
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During a speech from the White House last week, then Secretary of State Hilary Clinton announced that opposition groups in Syria are increasingly in contact with al Qaeda leadership hiding in Pakistan. Such a connection is especially dangerous, because groups like Jabhat al Nusra are already organizing suicide attacks on civilian targets, and have as many as 10,000 fighters.[11]
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In various operations throughout Islamabad on Saturday, police arrested around 130 suspected militants who failed to produce identifying documentation. Following the operation, police authorities directed tertiary stations to be especially vigilant in monitoring suspected militant elements.[12]
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On Saturday, two unknown armed men opened fire at a bus stop in Valeeka Chowrangi in SITE town, Karachi, killing one person and injuring another.[13]
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A man, whose body was “found bearing torture marks,” was shot and another injured by unknown attackers near Burns Road in the Raxer line area, Karachi on Saturday.[14]
Protests
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Officials from the Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) announced on Monday that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and opposing parties, who demanded implementation of Supreme Court’s announcement establishing new limits on constituencies in Karachi, will hold a dialogue on February 6th. Previously the PML-N planned to hold a two-day sit-in in front of Parliament House for the empowerment of the ECP to deliver timely and independent elections but was cancelled due to inclement weather.[15]
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Tahirul Qadri, the Muslim cleric who led a march to Islamabad against government corruption in January, on Monday announced the beginning of the second phase of his “revolution” protesting the existence of poverty in the country. Qadri plans to hold protests in six different cities starting on February 16th. He also stated that he did not intend to delay elections. [16]
Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline
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Dr. Ali Akbar Velayati, the former Iranian foreign minister and advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, arrived in Balochistan on Friday to discuss the Pak-Iran gas pipeline which was approved the Federal Cabinet last Wednesday. Dr Velayati addressed U.S. objections to the Pak-Iran pipeline stating that “Washington has nothing to do” with the project and that strategic cooperation between the two countries is not only mutually beneficial to them, but to larger regional and international interests.[17]
Counterinsurgency in Pakistan
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A Reuters report published on Monday examines the Pakistan Army’s attempts to convert gains it has made against the TTP on the battlefield into long-term peace. The report looks at Pakistani Army efforts to convert former militant sanctuaries into places safe enough for locals to return to and thrive in South Waziristan. The campaign includes winning the hearts and minds of local Pashtun tribes by creating new economic and educational opportunities. The Pakistan Army’s 2009 offensive in South Waziristan displaced half a million people most of whom have not been willing to return because of the lack of an effective civilian government, widespread corruption, and the threat of militancy lurking in South Waziristan.[18]
Anti-Corruption Measures
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Anti-corruption spokesperson Nabeel Awan, announced Monday that the Government of Punjab is beginning the “first large-scale attempt by any government to proactively solicit feedback from citizens who are forced to pay bribes.” The program lets citizens report with their cell phones when they are coerced into paying bribes, which officials believe will be a huge step in getting accountability for corruption, letting them map illicit activities and start to take actions against the ever growing problem.[19]
IMF Repayments
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Pakistan will repay $520 million worth of loans to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in two installments on February11 and February 26. In 2008, Pakistan entered a loan repayment program with the IMF and agreed to pay back $7.8 billion of which $2.38 has been repaid to-date.[20]
Pakistani Military Abuses
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In a statement on Saturday, a military spokesman lashed out at the human-rights advocacy group Human Rights Watch, calling their report from last week implicating the military in over 400 Shia deaths “a pack of lies, propaganda driven and totally biased.” The report questions whether the army is failing to stop the attacks or is “complicit in them.” [21]
