Pakistan Security Brief

Local, foreign fighters and tribesmen flee North Waziristan ahead of operation; Report claims PTI changing tune on operation; Pakistani and Indian troops escape of tire; PM Modi responds to PM Sharif by letter; PML-N leader assassinated in Balochistan; Policeman killed in attack on Lower Dir checkpost; Two wounded ; Three security officials dead as militants ambush convoy in Jamrud; Afghan presidential candidate survives assassination attempt.

North Waziristan Operation Rumors

• According to Friday reports, local and foreign fighters, along with some 60,000 local tribesmen, have fled North Waziristan in anticipation of the start of Pakistani military options in the region. Many internally displaced persons (IDPs) were reportedly fleeing to Afghanistan. Locals estimate that 80 percent  of local and foreign fighters have already left and an anonymous Pakistani intelligence official was quoted as saying that many militants were heading towards remote villages near the Afghan border and remote, mountainous areas near Birmal and Shawal. Locals: Local tribesmen also report that the Haqqani Network also appears to be less active and that a number of its fighters may have migrated to eastern Afghanistan. At least 6,000+ Pakistani refugees have arrived in Khost, Afghanistan, which they reportedly now consider to be safer than Pakistan.[1]

• According to a Friday report, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has started shifting its rhetoric with respect to a military operation in North Waziristan; media outlets now report the PTI conditionally supports action against the TTP in North Waziristan.[2]

Indo-Pak Relations

• On Friday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s outreach letter, condemning the attack on Karachi airport and stating his interest in deepening bilateral relations and cooperation between the two countries.[3]

• On Friday, Pakistani officials alleged that Indian troops engaged in cross-border firing along the Line of Control in Kashmir and injured two civilians in the Nakyal and Battal sectors. Indian troops, in return, accuse the Pakistani military of firing first into Rajouri sector.[4]

Al Qaeda

• In a report released on Friday, UN experts on Taliban sanctions said al Qaeda affiliates from Pakistan and Uzbekistan were participating in regular attacks on Afghan forces across the border in Afghanistan, and were unlikely to be displaced easily in the future.[5]

Militancy

• On Friday, a Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) politician, policeman and civilian were shot and killed by unknown gunmen in separate incidents in Khuzdar, Balochistan.[6]

• On Friday, a gun and grenade attack on a checkpost in Gualabad area of Ooch, Lower Dir district, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa left one policeman dead.[7]

• On Friday, Pakistani police arrested 18 Afghans suspected of involvement in the Karachi airport attack from areas near Sohrab Goth, Karachi.[8]

• On Thursday, three Khassadar security personnel were killed when unknown gunmen fired on patrol in the main bazaar in Jamrud, Khyber agency.[9]

Afghan-Pakistan Relations

• On Thursday, Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah stated that he wants “good neighborly relations” with Pakistan and seeks greater cooperation with Pakistan which he says also suffers from the same challenges of violence as Afghanistan.[10]

Domestic

• After the Sindh High Court (SHC) struck down an order placing former President General Pervez Musharraf’s name on a Pakistani government no-fly list, Musharraf petitioned the court to allow him to leave the country. Musharraf submitted an earlier petition to the interior ministry on June 12. On Friday, the Pakistani government filed an appeal against the Sindh High Court’s decision and has threatened to appeal as far as the Supreme Court, if necessary, to keep Musharraf grounded.[11]