Pakistan Security Brief

Karzai threatens to end peace talks as they begin; Obama says friction in Afghan peace talks is normal; Ceasefire to be addressed in Afghan peace talks; Release of Taliban prisoners aids peace talks; Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomes talks; Five more die in Mardan bombings, death toll at 34; Indian troops kill Pakistani girl at border; TTP clash leaves 7 dead; Pakistan to seek $4.5 billion bailout from the IMF; Stocks rise on IMF visit; 6 people killed in Karachi; Body found in bags outside Islamabad; India allows cross examination of 2008 Mumbai witnesses; Iran will not penalize Pakistan on pipeline delays; Missing persons inquiry seeks to indict 117 security personnel; Frontier Corps must be subservient to government, says Senator; Nawaz Sharif meets with General Kayani; Lt. Col succumbs to IED wounds; Defense spending will not increase size of military, analysts claim; Balochistan cabinet sworn in; Zardari Swiss court case thrown out; PML-N member removed.

Afghan Taliban Talks

• Afghan President Hamid Karzai cut off security talks with the United States on Wednesday, and threatened to boycott the early rounds of talks with the Taliban in Qatar, citing his desire that the talks be “Afghan-led.”  Karzai also expressed his displeasure at the Taliban’s Qatar office title, “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” According to Karzai, the title, which had been the name of the 1995 Taliban-run government of Afghanistan, granted the Taliban undeserved legitimacy in the talks.[1] 

• In a press conference on Tuesday, President Obama said that friction in the early rounds of peace talks between the U.S., the Taliban and the Afghan government is to be expected, as war continues amidst the early talks. Reportedly, Ambassador Dobbins, Special Representative to Pakistan and Afghanistan, will head to Qatar after a brief visit to Turkey.[2] 

• According to Dr. Muhammad Naeem, the head of the Taliban political office, a cease fire between all parties will be on the agenda in Qatar.[3]

• According to a report in the Express Tribune on Wednesday, the Pakistani government’s decision to release several Taliban prisoners over the last few months “enabled the insurgent group to come to the negotiating table.” According to an anonymous foreign ministry official, the government has also provided safe passage to key Taliban leaders taking part in the Doha talks.[4]

• In a press release on Tuesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed Tuesday’s announcement of peace talks between the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Afghan government and the United States. Furthermore, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced its intention to, “facilitate the process to achieve lasting peace in Afghanistan in accordance with the wishes of the Afghan people.”[5]   

Militancy   

• On Wednesday, five victims from the Mardan suicide bombing on Tuesday succumbed to their wounds, raising the death toll of the bombing to 34. At least 52 people were wounded in the blast as well.[6]

• A firefight between Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants led by commander Arif Afridi, cousin of late TTP commander Tariq Afridi, and a rival militant group under Umer Adizai left 7 militants dead on Tuesday in Darra Adamkhel,  Orakzai agency.[7]

• Six people, including a Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) activist, were killed on Tuesday in various shootings across Karachi. The activist was killed in Lyari by armed motorcyclists, a young man was shot in Usmanabad, two men were shot near Nyabad, a man was killed at Banaras bridge and a man was shot near Garden Police headquarters.[8]    

• A Pakistan Army Lieutenant Colonel who had been wounded when an IED exploded on June 9 in Kam Sarobi, North Waziristan, died on Wednesday due to his injuries.[9]

• A policeman and two civilians were wounded on Wednesday in Peshawar when an unknown attacker threw a grenade into the Gulbahar police station.[10]

• A mutilated body was found in shopping bags on Tuesday in Bani Gala, just outside of Islamabad.[11]  

• In the aftermath of Saturday’s Quetta terror attacks which killed 25 people, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Senator Raza Rabbani said in a press conference on Wednesday that the Frontier Corps must realize that it is subservient to the provincial government, and improve its coordination with other security apparatuses to prevent future attacks.[12]

• Internally displaced persons from central Kurram agency will begin returning home on Thursday, according to a government official on Tuesday. The area had been subject to anti-militant operations since May 7.[13]

Pakistan-India Relations 

• Indian troops reportedly fired across the Kashmir border near the Battal area on Wednesday, killing a ten year old Pakistani school girl and wounding her mother. Troops also reportedly fired across the border on Tuesday near Kotli, leaving an elderly Pakistani woman wounded. The incident comes one week after Indian fighter jets inadvertently violated Pakistan airspace.[14]  

• On Tuesday, India granted permission to a Pakistani judicial commission to visit Mumbai and cross examine witnesses in connection with the 2008 Mumbai bombings.[15] 

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• After being sworn in on Wednesday, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan urged Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to take definitive action against U.S. drone strikes. In particular, Khan urged the government to go to the U.N. Security Council with its demands; however, Khan did state that he is not in favor shooting down drones as other PTI members have considered.[16]  

• According to a Tuesday Business Week report, Indiana Governor Mike Pence will not block Posey County from investing $1.3 billion in a Pakistani fertilizer plant. Pence had pulled state support from the Fatima Group, amidst reports that the calcium ammonium nitrate fertilizer the company made was being used to make explosives targeting U.S. troops in Afghanistan.[17]   

Iran-Pakistan Relations

• On Monday, Iranian Petroleum Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi declared that Iran will not enforce an $8 million dollar penalty against Pakistan for delays in the planned pipeline between the two nations.[18]

Defense 

• Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met with Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani on Wednesday to discuss the formulation of a new national security policy. Sharif and Kayani focused on terrorism, border security with India, and the war in Afghanistan.[19]

• Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan continued to express the importance of information sharing between security agencies in an interview on Tuesday, noting that competition between agencies leads to dangerous information gaps, which in turn lead to successful terror attacks like Quetta’s Saturday bombings and shootings. Notably, Khan said the Army needs to “purge itself of men like General Pasha,” the now-retired Director General of the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence whom Khan accused of getting involved in domestic political machinations, and instead, commit to law and order.[20]

• According to defense analysts, including former Australian defense attaché to Pakistan Brian Cloughley, Pakistan’s recent $1.76 billion raise in defense spending for the 2013-2014 fiscal year will not raise the size of the Pakistani military, but rather, will be funneled solely towards wages and operational costs associated with counter insurgency operations.[21]     

 Economy

• According to a senior official of the Ministry of Finance in a statement on Tuesday, Pakistan will seek a $4.5 million bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) when discussions between the IMF and Pakistan begin on Wednesday. Pakistan’s priority during the IMF visit will be convincing the IMF to sign a letter of comfort, allowing Pakistan to resume World Bank and Asian Development Bank loans which have been suspended since 2009 due to failed reforms. The IMF’s primary focus will be on Pakistan’s ability to make adjustments to reduce its deficit, increase revenue generation, and enact energy sector reform.  Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, along with other members of the Finance Ministry will meet with eight to ten IMF officials, including IMF mission chief Jeffrey Franks.[22] 

• Pakistan’s stocks increased by 216 points on Wednesday as market optimism increased due to the beginning of the IMF’s visit to Islamabad. Stockholders hope IMF loans will solve Pakistan’s  balance of payment problems.[23]

Domestic   

• According to a report in the Express Tribune on Wednesday, the Pakistan Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances (CIED) has recommended filing cases against 117 law enforcement and security officials in 415 of the cases it has examined. These officials hold positions in agencies ranging from the Frontier Corps to the ISI. The CIED still has 757 enforced disappearances cases to report upon.[24]

• Three newly-elected members of Balochistan’s cabinet were sworn into office on Wednesday. Chief Minister Dr Abdul Malik Baloch will unveil Balochistan’s budget on Thursday.[25]  

• The Swiss government ended a case accusing President Asif Ali Zardari of laundering $60 million in a letter the new Nawaz Sharif-led government opened on Tuesday, citing the expiration of the statute of limitations on the case. The new government had heard about the contents of the letter from the previous Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government back in February, but only officially opened the letter on Tuesday. Zardari had been accused of using illegal money to purchase Surrey Palace, his and Benazir Bhutto’s home in England.[26]     

• Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nighat Nasir was expelled from the party on Wednesday, after an altercation with a bus hostess led to Nasir striking the woman.[27]