Pakistan Security Brief

Death of al Qaeda’s second in command decreases group’s cohesion; UN to investigate civilian casualties caused by U.S. drone strikes; U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff expresses frustration with Haqqani Network presence in Pakistan; NATO supply routes may reopen next week; Explosion on government bus in Peshawar kills up to 19; Niger President warns of Pakistani jihadists in northern Mali; Bomb injures six in Nowshera District; Ten killed in incidents of violence in Karachi; Pakistani man arrested for impersonating U.S. FBI agent.

Drone Strikes and Death of Top Al Qaeda Leader

• According to a report in the New York Times, The death of Abu Yahya al Libi, reportedly al Qaeda’s second-in-command, in a U.S. drone strike in North Waziristan this past Monday will likely accelerate a shift of al Qaeda’s focus away from Pakistan and towards its autonomous franchises elsewhere. According to U.S. counterterrorism officials, al Qaeda’s central cohesion is fragmenting as the group’s ability to maintain control over autonomous branches in the Middle East and across Africa decreases. Officials note that al Libi served a vital role in maintaining theological cohesion and his death will likely lead to enhanced autonomy for al Qaeda affiliates such as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen.[1]

• UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay on Thursday suggested the Pakistani government invite the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Summary or Arbitrary Executions to investigate into civilian casualties caused by U.S. drone strikes. Speaking in Pakistan as part of a four-day visit to the country, Pillay questioned whether the attacks were compliant with international law and said she sees “indiscriminate killings and injuries to civilians in any circumstances as human rights violations.” The UN human rights chief though noted the obstacles to investigating civilian casualties in a region where it is increasingly difficult to track the exact number of people killed in each drone attack.[2]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter Lavoy arrived in Pakistan on Friday to discuss “the broader issues in the relationship” between the two countries. While negotiations between the two countries over reopening the NATO supply lines have been deadlocked over truck fees, Lavoy does not plan to discuss the reopening of the Ground Lines of Communications (GLOCs) during his two-day meetings with senior civilian and military officials, according to a U.S. diplomat.[3]

• Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon on Friday, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey expressed frustration over the inability to find common ground with Pakistan on issues related to the Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Though General Dempsey noted he was “mindful of the fact that Pakistan has also been carrying out military operations with great losses in the FATA,” he also said he was “extraordinarily dissatisfied” with a lack of action taken by the Pakistani military in regards to the Haqqani network. General Dempsey reiterated that the U.S. was not at war in the FATA, but rather with al Qaeda, who continues to be present in Pakistan’s tribal areas. General Dempsey added that Pakistan and the U.S. have many opportunities for cooperation on the GLOCs and eliminating terrorist safe havens in the FATA.[4]

NATO Supply Routes

• Negotiations between Pakistan and the U.S. could result in the reopening of the GLOCs soon, according to Pakistani and U.S. officials speaking to The News. According to a U.S. State Department senior official, the leadership of both countries is nearing the conclusion of a “package deal” that includes reimbursement from the Coalition Support Fund. A senior Pakistani diplomat involved with the deliberations told The News that “We will open GLOCs soon,” though he could not provide an exact date. Though neither side  provided specifics related to reopening the supply lines, officials have expressed hope that a deal could be struck by as soon as next week. Amidst speculation that the GLOCs will open next week, British Foreign Secretary William Hague will travel to Pakistan next week in an effort to broker a deal between the U.S. and Pakistan for the reopening of NATO supply lines.[5]

Militancy

• Up to 19 people were killed and more than 40 injured when an improvised explosive device (IED) targeted a bus carrying government employees and civilians in the Daudzai area on the outskirts of Peshawar on Friday. The bus was transporting at least 22 employees of the Peshawar Civil Secretariat and more than 30 other civilian passengers from Peshawar to Charsadda in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa when 18 pounds of explosives planted under the bus were remotely detonated, according to provincial information minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain. Though no group claimed credit for the attack, police suspect the operation may have been carried out in retaliation for the U.S. drone strike that killed Abu Yahya al Libi, the second-in-command of al Qaeda, in North Waziristan this past Monday. Both Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani and President Asif Ali Zardari immediately condemned the Peshawar bomb attack.[6]

• Niger President Mahamadou Issoufou, speaking to France 24 news channel on Thursday, warned that “Jihadi fighters” from Afghanistan and Pakistan are training militant groups in northern Mali, where the fall of Moammar Qaddafi’s regime last year spread suspected militants across the Sahel. Issoufo noted that Niger “had information on the presence of Afghans and Pakistanis in northern Mali, [where] they are believed to be working as instructors.”[7]

• At least six people, including two police officials, were injured when a remote-controlled bomb planted near an electricity pole exploded near a police vehicle during a routine patrol in the Aurangabad area of Pabbi in Nowshera district on Friday.[8]

• A court in Balochistan booked three suspects for their involvement in a bomb blast at a bank in Panjgur that killed one man and injured seven this past Monday.[9]

• Ten people were killed in a series of “target killings” and other incidents of violence in Karachi on Thursday.  Unidentified gunmen killed two political party workers in Saeedabad in what appeared to be an incident of “target killing” and attackers also killed eight others in separate shootings in Quaidabad, Sharifabad, Peerabad, Liaquatabad, Korangi, Kharadar, and Pak colony.[10] 

• Several people were injured when two tribes in Balochistan’s Chagh area clashed on Friday. The two tribes, in the Zardakan area of Chaghi, exchanged fire for several hours. Additional troops have been deployed to the area to quell the violence.[11]

Law Enforcement

• Pakistani police arrested a man for posing as a U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agent in order to con victims into participating in a foreign exchange scam. Following the registration of several fraud cases against the man, police launched an operation to track down the location of the criminal. Police traced the cell phone number of the suspect and set up a fake meeting, where they arrived and arrested the man.[12]