Pakistan Security Brief

NATO officials giving up hope for a Taliban peace deal; TTP will not attack peace marchers; Indian Foreign Minister slams Pakistan at the UN over Kashmir; Pakistan arrests 33 Indian fishers; Russian Foreign Minister to visit Islamabad; Two killed and three bodies found dead in Karachi; British born Pakistani killed in Islamabad; Pakistan pays $109.4 million to the IMF; Court urges repatriation of Afghan refugees.

Taliban Peace Deal

• As U.S.-led NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, some military officials have reportedly concluded that “battering” the Taliban into a peace deal is unlikely. An anonymous senior coalition officer said, “I don’t see it happening in the next couple years.” The Taliban has already experienced the worst of the American counter-insurgency, and it will likely be able to maintain influence in the country. Military and diplomatic officials now believe that “any significant progress will come only after 2014, once the bulk of NATO troops have left,” signaling a greater role to be played by the Afghan government in working out a deal that will satisfy warring factions and address Pakistani concerns as well. Bringing the Pakistanis in is a concern for U.S. officials, however, given that the details are yet to be worked out and U.S. officials remain unsure of whether Pakistan will see through an agreed upon reconciliation plan.[i]

South Waziristan Peace March

• According to a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman, the TTP will not attack Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan and other marchers during Khan’s two-day “Peace March” to South Waziristan, which begins on Wednesday in Islamabad. Tuesday’s announcement is a reversal of the TTP’s earlier plan to send suicide bombers to kill Khan during his march to South Waziristan; however, the TTP says it has altered course due to Khan’s “vehement opposition” to U.S. drone strikes. The spokesman added that the TTP would provide marchers with protection if necessary.[ii]

Indo-Pakistani Relations

• In an address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Monday, Indian Foreign Minister S. M. Krishna slammed Pakistan for making “an unwarranted reference…to Jammu and Kashmir from this podium” at the UN General Assembly. He assured the Assembly that relations between the two countries were becoming normalized, but added that “we wish to make it abundantly clear that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India.”[iii]

• After releasing detained Indian fishermen from Pakistan last week, Pakistan’s Maritime Security Agency (MSA) on Monday apprehended “five Indian fishing boats along with 33 crew members” for allegedly fishing “well inside Pakistani waters (approximately 90 nautical miles).”[iv]

Russo-Pakistani Relations

• Sources interviewed on Tuesday by the Express Tribune say that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov will visit Islamabad for bilateral consultations from October 3- 4. Official sources said the Russian Foreign Minister’s trip to Islamabad was an attempt to dispel “impressions that efforts by the two sides to reset their otherwise troubled ties might get stalled after President Putin put off his maiden trip to Pakistan.” Unidentified sources said, however, that Putin had canceled his trip after Russian gas giant OAO Gazprom was not selected to help build a new gas pipeline from India to Iran that would run through Pakistan. They added that Russia also wanted to avoid antagonizing India, with which it has close relations.[v]

City Violence

• Two people were killed and three dead bodies were found in Karachi on Monday. Police said a man was killed by armed gunmen in Machar Colony near Sohrab Goth. A two-day-old body was found in Saddar. Unidentified men shot and injured an activist of a political party in Lyari. One man was killed and another injured by armed assailants near Baldia Town. One person was found dead in Liaquatabad and the body of a woman was found in Landhi.[vi]

• Malik Iqbal, a British-born Pakistani, was killed by three masked men at his house in Rawalpindi on Saturday. Iqbal was kidnapped in September last year, and had returned to Pakistan in August to testify at a trial against the gang that kidnapped him.[vii]

IMF Repayment

• The State Bank of Pakistan said on Monday that it paid $109.4 million as part of its repayment plan for the $8 billion loan granted by the IMF in 2008. This payment was the fifth installment since last year, and according to the State Bank, the amount paid back is now totaled at $1.402 billion.[viii]

Afghan Refugee Repatriation

• Chief Justice of the Peshawar High Court (PHC) Dost Muhammad Khan declared on Monday that repatriation of Afghan refugees currently in Pakistan was essential for Pakistan’s economic well-being. He pointed out that the national exchequer had been significantly strained as a result of hosting 1.7 million registered refugees. He requested that the government collaborate with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to assist in the repatriation processes.[ix]

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