The Critical Threats Project releases a weekly update and assessment on the al Qaeda network.
Key Takeaways:
- Russia aims to broker a political solution to the Yemen conflict to secure naval basing in the Gulf of Aden. Basing permissions in Yemen would advance Russia’s broader mission to challenge American power in the Middle East. Russian representatives met with Emirati leadership and former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh to discuss possible solutions outside of the UN framework. These negotiations likely prompted internationally recognized Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi to replace members of his government under the Emirati patronage. The reshuffle sparked backlash from Yemen’s Southern Movement that may presage the breakdown of the already fraught Hadi government coalition. [Read the latest Yemen Crisis Situation Report]
- A meeting between Libyan leaders may signal a political breakthrough, but significant challenges remain. Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar met with Government of National Accord (GNA) Prime Minister-designate Fayez al Serraj in Abu Dhabi, three months after Haftar pulled out of a planned meeting in Cairo. Haftar and Serraj reportedly agreed on several major changes to the UN-brokered Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), including the removal of a provision that required civilian control over the military. Debate over the proposed amendments will likely continue, however, as key GNA supporters oppose changes to the LPA that would empower Haftar. [Read “Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya”]
- Al Shabaab retains control of populations in Somalia. It recently conducted corporal punishments in central Somalia, where it is also seeking to generate local goodwill. Al Shabaab has positioned itself as an alternative source of humanitarian aid and dispute resolution in areas where the Somali Federal Government’s power is limited. It has sought to monitor the activities of international aid organizations in areas under its influence. [Read “Al Shabaab’s Humanitarian Response” and “US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?”]