Key Takeaways:

1. Instability in northwestern Libya may undermine initial progress in the UN-led peace process. Clashes broke out between militias aligned with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and militias seeking to control the trafficking economy in Sabratha, a migrant hub in northwestern Libya. Both incidents weaken the GNA, which is one of three main parties in the recently resumed UN-led negotiations.
2. Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta is championing electoral reforms that could cause unrest and undermine state institutions. Parliamentarians from Kenyatta’s party fast-tracked new laws that would strip authorities from the Supreme Court and increase parliament’s control over the independent electoral commission. Opposition candidate Raila Odinga’s boycott of the elections under these conditions will trigger additional unrest.
3. Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government aims to consolidate power by reforming the security forces under a centralized structure. It plans to integrate local militias and brigades, some of which are under Emirati command-and-control, into a regular army. The announcement generated backlash from Emirati-backed political actors in southern Yemen. [Read CTP’s Warning Update: Fracturing of the Yemeni state.]