The collapse of the ceasefire in the capital and the continued crackdown in south Yemen increase the threat of civil war in Yemen. The regime’s turn toward violent repression indicates the president’s unwillingness to accept a peaceful transition.

The ceasefire in Sana’a has collapsed. Yemeni security forces attacked Hashid tribal leader Sheikh Sadiq al Ahmar’s house. Hashidi tribesmen have regained control of government buildings. The fighting was concentrated in al Hasaba district. It is unclear which side initiated the most recent round of fighting.

Fighting in Taiz continued for the second day. Security forces fired on anti-government demonstrators to prevent them from assembling in the city. Witnesses report that at least seven people were killed.

Control of Zinjibar remains contested. The city had been seized by al Qaeda-linked militants. Yemeni military reinforcements reportedly deployed from Aden to Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan governorate. Yemeni war planes are now bombing targets in Jaar and the surrounding areas in Abyan. Al Qaeda-linked militants took control of Jaar in early April.

The resumption of fighting in the capital and the spread of violence to southern cities significantly increases the likelihood of widespread civil war in Yemen. The danger of state fragmentation and of expanding al Qaeda safe-havens is also growing.

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