Pakistan Security Brief

Pakistan is ready to launch a full-scale offensive if peace talks fail; North Waziristan operation could be launched any day, plans have been shared with the U.S.; TTP prepared for the consequences of military operations; Tuesday airstrikes in North Waziristan contribute to IDP flows; Security officials say large offensive will drive out Haqqani network; Pakistani military coordinating with U.S. forces in Afghanistan; Security officials confirm Pakistan is using its own drones to target TTP militants; Police arrest TTP commander Qari Anas near Swabi; Maulana Samiul Haq shares TTP-nominated committee’s requests with TTP shura; TTP rejects government’s call for unconditional ceasefire; TTP confirm killing of TTP commander Asmatullah Shaheen Bhittani, blame Pakistan’s intelligence agencies; Iran says Pakistan contractually obliged to complete Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline; Iranian border guards launch mortar shells into Balochistan; National Security Adviser says Pakistan will not arm Syrian rebels; Hizbul Mujahideen says Mast Gul not its member for years; One injured in Bannu grenade attack; One injured in attack on North Waziristan school; Terrorism on the rise in Karachi; Kidnapped polio worker and Levies personnel released; Police in Swabi district arrest three militants; Security increased in Hyderabad Central Jail due to fear of jail break; Interior Minister says Pakistan will respond to militancy with force.

Operations in the Tribal Areas

• On Wednesday, a senior government official said that Pakistan is ready to launch a full-scale offensive in North Waziristan if peace talks with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fail. The official also said that although Pakistan prefers a negotiated settlement, preparations have been made for military action if talks are not successful. According to the source, Pakistani troops are already deployed in the area and will only need to be repositioned for a “very visible operation.”[1]

• According to a Tuesday report in The Washington Post, Pakistan is preparing for a military operation in North Waziristan agency, and could launch it “any day.” The military has reportedly shared its plans with American officials.[2]

• On Tuesday, TTP spokesman Shahidullah Shahid said that the TTP was prepared for the consequences of impending military operations.[3]

• On Tuesday, the Pakistani military launched airstrikes against militant hideouts in the Shawal area between North and South Waziristan, killing at least 30 people. According to a Wednesday article in Reuters, senior government officials warned of a large offensive that would drive the Haqqani network out of North Waziristan and added that operations would be coordinated with U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan to prevent militants fleeing the operation from crossing the border. Another senior government official also noted that Pakistan already has ground troops in North Waziristan, which the military will simply reposition if the government decides to go forward with a ground operation.[4]

• A Wednesday article in The News reported that an estimated 4,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) fleeing airstrikes in North Waziristan, mostly from Mir Ali, have arrived in Bannu. Other officials reported that between 13,000 and 22,000 had arrived since the first airstrikes, whereas others have fled to Lakki Marwat, Karak, Dera Ismail Khan, and Peshawar. Additionally, a Wednesday article in Reuters quoted a tribesman, Naqibullah Khan, as saying that heavy arms and ammunition are being shifted through Bannu to Waziristan every day. Khan added that two-thirds of the population of his village in the Mir Ali area has fled in anticipation of a military offensive.[5]

• On Tuesday, security officials and experts confirmed that Pakistan is making its own drones that have helped security forces conduct targeted airstrikes against TTP targets in Tirah and Mir Ali. A senior security official quoted in a Wednesday article in The News stated that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is not helping the Pakistan Army to target the TTP, but rather that Pakistan is using its own drones for its operations against the TTP. Former Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani declared in November 2013 that Pakistan had successfully engineered two Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), or drones, that would be used only for surveillance.[6]

Peace Talks with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

• On Wednesday, the coordinator for the TTP-nominated negotiating committee Maulana Samiul Haq contacted the TTP shura to share the negotiating committee’s requests, the details of which Samiul Haq said cannot be revealed at this time. Additionally, Maulana Yousuf Shah said the TTP have suggested a desire to continue negotiations, adding that it was imperative that both sides agree to a ceasefire.[7]

• On Tuesday, TTP spokesman Shahidullah Shahid said that the TTP rejected the government’s call for an unconditional ceasefire, adding that the government is waging the war and it is up to the government to end it. [8]

Asmatullah Assassination

• On Tuesday, the TTP confirmed the killing of Asmatullah Shaheen Bhittani, a senior TTP commander and former interim head of the TTP following the assassination of Hakimullah Mehsud in November, 2013. TTP Spokesman Shahidullah Shahid called Asmatullah’s assassination a “great loss for the Taliban movement and a huge vacuum that will be difficult to fill.” Shahid also alleged that Pakistan’s intelligence agencies, in coordination with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the CIA were responsible for his killing.[9]

Iran-Pakistan Relations

• On Tuesday, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said that Iran remains committed to constructing the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. After Pakistani Minister of Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said Pakistan is pulling out of the project, Iran’s Oil Ministry released a statement saying that Pakistan is contractually obliged to construct the pipeline.[10]

• On Wednesday, Iranian border guards allegedly fired mortars into Pakistan at the Peshuk Checkpost, Panjgur district, Balochistan. There were no casualties. Pakistani officials told The Express Tribune that a similar incident occurred on Monday.[11]

Pakistan-Syria Relations

• On Tuesday, Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs and National Security Sartaj Aziz said that Pakistan would not change its policy of non-interference in the Syria conflict, despite reports that Pakistan would supply rockets to rebel forces.[12]

Militancy

• On Tuesday, Hizbul Mujahideen distanced itself from Mast Gul, a militant now affiliated with the TTP. Gul had been identified in some reports as a member of Hizbul Mujahideen, but the group said he left it before 2001.[13]

• On Wednesday, the father of a police official in Bannu district, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was injured in a grenade attack on his house.[14]

• On Wednesday, a bomb blast near the house of a Khassadar Force official in Keti de Bazar, Khyber agency caused no casualties.[15]

• On Wednesday, a grenade attack on a school in Sarai Darpa Khel, North Waziristan agency injured one person and damaged the school.[16]

• On Wednesday, the Karachi police released a report saying that terrorism in Karachi had risen since the launch of a widespread operation in the city, and that 25 policemen were killed in January.[17]

• On Tuesday, a polio worker and three Levies personnel who had been kidnapped on Monday were released in Awaran district, Balochistan. The attack had been claimed by a Baloch Liberation Front (BLA) spokesman who said that the abductees were not the intended target.[18]

• On Tuesday, five rockets landed in different areas of Peshawar but caused no casualties.[19]

• On Wednesday, police in Swabi district, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa arrested three militants including TTP commander Qari Anas (alias Abu Musa) who were allegedly planning an attack on the police after receiving a tip-off.[20]

• On Tuesday, a police van was targeted in a bombing in Umarzai, Charsadda district, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. There were no casualties.[21]

• According to a Wednesday report in The News, security has been increased at the Hyderabad Central Jail due to fears that the TTP is planning a jail break to free Ahmad Omar Saeed Sheikh, who was convicted of the 2002 murder of Daniel Pearl.[22]

Domestic

• In an address to the National Assembly on Wednesday, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan said that Pakistan has a new policy of responding to terrorist attacks with military force. The 100-page policy document addresses changes to ensure security across the country. Khan also called on all political parties to work together to implement the changes.[23]