Pakistan Security Brief

Defense Minister says Pakistan ready to launch military operations against TTP in March if peace talks fail; Corps Commanders decide targeted airstrikes against TTP hideouts will continue if militants attack military installations; Government sets up official committee to hold direct talks with TTP; Senate opposition members oppose plan to include army in peace talks; Pakistan to deepen defense ties with China and Saudi Arabia; Rangers deployed to Islamabad;  Pentagon says al Qaeda continues to operate in Pakistan’s tribal areas; Ahrar-ul-Hind leader draws support from militant organizations linked to al Qaeda; Gunmen kill Laskhar member in Adezai area of Peshawar; Bomb blasts unsuccessfully target Deputy Speaker of Sindh Assembly.

Islamabad Attacks

• According to a Friday article in Reuters, the leader of Ahrar-ul-Hind, the splinter group from the TTP that carried out the attack on district courts in Islamabad, Umar Qasmi, “can draw support from other militant outfits, including several linked to al Qaeda” that have carried out attacks in Pakistan over the last decade. The National Crisis Management cell of the Ministry of Interior gave a presentation before Parliament last month that described Islamabad as “extremely dangerous,” referencing a number of sleeper cells of various militant groups operating in the federal capital. Qasmi, originally from a southern Punjabi city that is home to the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (an anti-Shi’ite sectarian group that provides soldiers for Al Qaeda in Pakistan), reportedly uses fighters from the Punjab and the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. Qasmi also lived in Mohmand agency, and is believed to have close relations with Jundullah. One official cited in the article said that Ahrar-ul-Hind could be the name of a new Punjabi faction that TTP insurgents have joined. Asad Mansoor, a spokesman for Ahrar-ul-Hind, stated that the group will focus its militant activities in Pakistan’s urban areas.[1]

Military Operations

• A Friday article in Reuters cited Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif as saying that Pakistan could launch military operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Pakistan’s tribal areas during March if peace talks with the TTP fail. Asif told Reuters reporters that the military would not hesitate to target militant hideouts if the TTP did not abide by the ceasefire. He said he did not believe it was possible that the TTP did not know about recent attacks in Pakistan or who was responsible. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been under pressure from the United States and members of the Pakistani army to conduct operations in North Waziristan agency for some time, although his administration is still pushing for peace talks with the TTP. According to Asif, members of Sharif’s government fear that the withdrawal of U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces from Afghanistan could energize the insurgency on both sides of the border.[2]

• On Friday, the army’s corps commanders decided at a meeting chaired by the Chief of the Army Staff General Raheel Sharif that the military would continue with targeted airstrikes against TTP hideouts in North Waziristan if militants attacked military installations in the future. Representatives also discussed the possible selection of a military representative to participate in the peace negotiations with the TTP.[3]

Peace Talks

• On Thursday, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan announced that the government is setting up an official committee to hold direct talks with the TTP next week. According to Khan, the committee will include representatives from the federal government, the government of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and the military. Khan also stated that a majority of the groups making up the TTP were not enemies of Pakistan. Khan added that some elements had a plan to bomb Islamabad using an airplane, but the plot was foiled by the government.[4]

• On Thursday, opposition members in the Senate opposed a plan to include the army in peace negotiations with the TTP. Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader Raza Rabbani said it would not be appropriate to include a military representative in peace talks with a civilian government. Zahid Khan of the Awami National Party (ANP) also opposed the inclusion of the army in peace talks.[5]

Saudi-China-Pakistan Defense Ties

• On Thursday, a Foreign Office spokesperson said that Pakistan intends to increase its defense ties to China through purchases of weapons. She also said that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are working on strengthening ties with each other. Pakistan is considering selling JF-17 Thunder and Mushaq aircraft to Saudi Arabia.[6]

Domestic

• On Thursday, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan announced that Pakistan has deployed Rangers to Islamabad due to concerns about the capital’s security situation. The Rangers will have six stations in the city and will begin patrolling next week.[7]

Militancy

• According to a top Pentagon commander, al Qaeda continues to operate from Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). General Lloyd Austin, a Commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) also stated that tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir presented a threat to regional stability. Austin added that problems such as Pakistan’s poor economy and growing “youth bulge” have contributed to a rise in radicalism and militant activity in Pakistan’s settled areas.[8]

• On Thursday, unknown gunmen shot and killed a member the Adezai Amn Lashkar in the Adezai area of Peshawar.[9]

• On Thursday, four small bomb blasts occurred near the Karachi house of Shehla Raza, the Deputy Speaker of the Sindh Assembly. There were no casualties.[10]

• On Friday, a Bomb Disposal Squad (BDS) defused a bomb that was planted in Orangi Town, Karachi.[11]