Pakistan Security Brief

Zawahiri officially named new al Qaeda chief; U.S.-Pakistan relations at “lowest point” since 9/11; Drone strike kills eighteen in Waziristan; HuM leader allegedly lives “freely” just outside Islamabad; Austria arrests four German Taliban Mujahideen suspects; Death toll in Karachi killings rises over thirty; New militias form in Akakhei to fight militants; Independent judicial commission announced to investigate Shahzad murder.

Zawahiri to Lead al Qaeda

• According to a statement attributed to the “al Qaeda General Command,” Ayman al-Zawahiri will become the new leader of al Qaeda. Zawahiri had long been previous leader Osama Bin Laden’s second-in-command. Last week, he released a video eulogy commemorating Bin Laden, increasing speculation that he would be named the new head of the organization. In the statement announcing Zawahiri as the new leader, al Qaeda’s General Command also pledged continued loyalty to the “Emir of the Believers,” Taliban leader Mullah Omar.[i]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• U.S.-Pakistan relations continue to decline in the aftermath of the May 2 raid that killed Osama Bin Laden. The U.S. raid has increased pressure from within the Pakistani security establishment to “reduce ties” to the U.S. Pakistan’s army chief of staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is reportedly “fighting to survive” amidst pressure from within the military to reject U.S. influence. Kayani has traveled to military bases to “rally support” but continues to face opposition, both from the upper echelons of the Pakistani military, and lower ranking officers. Worryingly, he is also reportedly to be facing pressure from some Pakistani generals who were previously thought to be pro-U.S., including Lt. Gen. Tariq Khan, the former head of the Frontier Corps (FC).[ii]

• Pakistan’s arrest of five informants who aided the CIA in the months leading to the U.S. raid that killed Bin Laden has further hurt U.S.-Pakistan relations. In addition to the arrests, the Associated Press reports that Pakistan has “failed to expedite the entry of CIA officers into the country,” disregarding recent agreements between the U.S. and Pakistan to improve intelligence cooperation. According to the Associated Press, Defense Secretary Robert Gates referred to the informants’ arrest as a reality of intelligence operations, explaining that “most governments lie to each other . . . that’s the way business gets done.” A U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal that it is relatively normal for a government to want to “question its own citizens if they [are] caught working for a foreign spy agency.” According to the Wall Street Journal, CIA director Leon Panetta is “lobbying his Pakistani counterpart” to release one of the informants, “a local doctor.”[iii]

FATA

• Dawn reports drone strikes killed eighteen militants in North and South Waziristan on Wednesday. According to Dawn, “four missiles hit a vehicle carrying suspected militants from Razmak road to Tappi area,” 6.2 miles east of Miram Shah.” An earlier drone strike on “a vehicle and a compound” in Wana, South Waziristan killed ten.[iv]

• Reuters reports 250 militants launched a cross-border attack from Afghanistan on Mamund, a “pro-government Pakistani village” on Thursday, killing six civilians and wounding two women. According to Reuters, the attack took place in Bajaur, “opposite the Afghan province of Kunar.” According to a security official, paramilitary forces have been sent to aid the villagers. Troops in the area have reportedly killed several militants in response to the raid.[v]

• Dawn reports that the possibility of a refugee crisis resulting from a military operation in North Waziristan has local residents worried. Although no operation has been officially announced, UNHCR has “a contingency capability in place to respond to new displacement situations that may occur in the region.”[vi]

Terrorist Leader Outside Islamabad

• According to the Associated Press, Fazl-ur-Rahman Khalil, who leads the Harakat-ul-Mujahedeen (HuM), a terrorist group, lives unthreatened “in the Islamabad suburb of Golra Sharif.” It has been rumored that Khalil was in contact with Osama Bin Laden while he was in Abbottabad. HuM is likely responsible for “a deadly attack on the American Consulate in Karachi in 2002,” but “Khalil himself is not on any U.S. wanted list.”[vii]

Austria Arrests DTM Supects

• Three suspected German Taliban Mujahideen (DTM) members were arrested on Wednesday by Austrian authorities at Vienna airport allegedly en route to terrorist training camps in Afghanistan or Pakistan. A fourth suspect who may have recruited the other three was also detained.[viii]

Karachi

• Geo reports seven more people have been killed in “the ongoing incidents of targeted killing.” The latest killings bring the death toll for the last three days to 31. Many of those killed were affiliated with political parties and activist groups. Geo reports that delegations from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP,) the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP) have “decided to pay compensation to the family members of victims affected in target killing incidents.”[ix]

• Public prosecutor Arshad Iqbal Cheema will “seek murder charges” against six paramilitary soldiers and a civilian over the killing of an unarmed man, Sarfaraz Shah in a public park. Public outrage ensued after a video of the incident surfaced on YouTube. Shah was accused of robbery, but his family insists he was “an innocent student.”[x]

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

• Dawn reports that “new vigilante groups . . . have formed in Akakhel area” to combat militants. Recent attacks have reportedly convinced locals that “militants are determined to target the entire Akakhel tribe.” Previously, the Adezai Qaumi Lashkar was the only group opposing militants in the area. The new militias are expected to “provid[e] breathing space for the Adezai Qaumi Lashkar.”[xi]

Saleem Shahzad Investigation

• The government has announced “the formation of a judicial commission headed by a Supreme Court judge” to investigate the murder of journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad. This comes after continued journalist protests demanding an investigation and justice. Dawn reports that demonstrators ended their protests following the announcement.[xii]