Pakistan Security Brief

Survey shows many Pakistanis view U.S. killing of Bin Laden negatively; Bin Laden’s youngest wife to return to Yemen;  Activist says civilians should use momentum against military to weaken their “grip on power”; Five militants killed in checkpoint ambush in Khyber Agency; Police failed to respond to threats leading up to Matani blast; Commissions to investigate Abbottabad raid and Shahzad murder approved; Suspect arrested in Bhatti murder investigation; India and Pakistan hope to make modest progress in peace talks; Pakistan braces for floods.

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• A survey done by the Pew Research Center shows the majority of Pakistanis view the killing of Osama Bin Laden negatively. Positive views towards Bin Laden among Pakistanis had declined in recent years, but the Pew survey shows 63% disapprove of the U.S. raid that killed Bin Laden and 55% think it is a “bad thing” he is dead. Also, only 12% view the U.S. favorably, 8% have confidence in President Barack Obama, and 6% see the U.S. as a partner versus the 69% who see the U.S. as an enemy. The survey also shows that while only 12% of Pakistanis view the Taliban and al Qaeda favorably, 19% view the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) favorably and 27% view the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT,) who executed the Mumbai attacks, favorably. Additionally, Pakistanis support U.S. involvement in the fight against terrorism in a declining fashion as it pertains to “financial and humanitarian aid” (54%,) “intelligence and logistical support” (46%,) and “conducting drone strikes in conjunction with the Pakistani government against leaders of extremist groups” (21%.) The survey also shows that support for Pakistani military operations targeting extremists has declined from 53% two years ago to 37% today. Pakistanis also still see India as the greatest threat to Pakistan by a significant margin.[i]

• On Tuesday, the Senate unanimously confirmed CIA director Leon Panetta as the U.S.’s next Secretary of Defense. During Panetta’s recent visit to Islamabad, he emphasized the importance of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship but also confronted top political and military officials about possible collusion between Pakistani security officials and militants.[ii]

• In light of rising animosity towards the U.S., Pakistanis have begun to seek Chinese influence in Pakistan, the Washington Post reports. The Mayor of Abbottabad, the location of last month’s U.S. raid that killed Bin Laden, has stated that China is “our path to prosperity.” In recent years, China has shied away from involvement in Pakistan due to continuing instability, but China is likely to become closer to Pakistan as its economic rivalry with India, as opposed to Pakistan’s historic one, intensifies.[iii]

Bin Laden Wife to Leave Pakistan

• The Guardian reports that Amal Ahmed al-Sadah, Osama Bin Laden’s youngest wife, “is expected to leave Pakistan for her homeland, Yemen, within days.” Sadah and her daughter, Safiya, were wounded in the raid that killed Bin Laden. Sadah “is believed to have been questioned by US intelligence services.”[iv]

SCBA Head Pushes against MIlitary

• Head of the Supreme Court Bar Association Asma Jahangir has stated she thinks Pakistanis should use the current momentum against the military to weaken their influence in Pakistani politics permanently. Jahangir hopes that a shift in civil-military dynamics will see civil society and politicians “embolden[ed].”[v]

• Four army majors are being questioned in connection with the case of Brigadier Ali Khan. Khan has been accused of having ties to the Hizb-ut-Tahrir, an international Islamist group that seeks the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate ranging across the Muslim world.[vi]

FATA

• On Wednesday, five militants were killed in an ambush on a police checkpoint near the town of Bara in Khyber Agency. Over thirty militants attacked the checkpoint and killed one policeman. In a separate incident on Wednesday, militants ambushed security personnel in the Dabori area of Upper Orakzai Agency. Four militants were killed in the ensuing clash. Additionally, twin blasts in Jamrud Tehsil, Khyber Agency killed two people on Wednesday.[vii]

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

• Police are being blamed for failing to prevent Monday’s blast in the Matani area of Peshawar after reports that they received direct and indirect threats including the time and location of the attack but failed to respond to them. Police also failed to catch up to the militant who fled the scene on foot after leaving a car loaded with explosives.[viii]

Judicial Probes

• On Tuesday, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani approved the commissions formed to investigate the May 2 Abbottabad raid that killed Osama Bin Laden and the death of journalist Saleem Shahzad. While the Abbottabad commission is open-ended, the Shahzad commission is expected to submit a report in six weeks. Regarding Shahzad’s murder, Punjab police have found that Shahzad was killed in Islamabad, not in Sarai Alamgir, where his body was found.[ix]

Bhatti Murder Arrest

• On Wednesday, Islamabad police arrested a suspect in connection with the March 2 assassination of former Federal Minister for Minorities Shahbaz Bhatti. Bhatti was “the only non-Muslim minister in the Pakistan Peoples Party-led (PPP) coalition government” and an outspoken critic of blasphemy laws.[x]

India-Pakistan Relations

• India and Pakistan hope to “nudge forward their peace process” in Thursday’s talks in Islamabad. Reuters reports “hopes [are] being kept deliberately low,” given a history of “false starts” in these negotiations. An Indian government source told Reuters no one should expect “quick and dramatic solutions.”[xi]

Flood Risks

• According to Reuters, “up to five million people in Pakistan are at risk from floods this year,” partially due to an incomplete recovery from last year’s floods. Monsoon season lasts from “late June to early September” and is expected to affect two to five million Pakistanis, according to the U.N.[xii]