Pakistan Security Brief

Suicide bomber kills 60, injures 110 at Wagah border crossing near Lahore;  Security forces recover explosives, arrest 21 suspects near Wagah; Mehsud tribal Jirga meets Mehsud Taliban chief to negotiate peace; Dozens of militants, soldiers and civilians killed in airstrikes and clashes in ongoing operations in Khyber Agency; Security forces kill 25 militants in Shirin Dara, Orakzai Agency; Rockets kill two officials in Orakzai Agency;  Police arrest five LeJ members plotting bomb attack in Karachi; Grenade attack injures two policemen in Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Karachi; Blast injures 6 people in Karachi; IED blast hits armored personnel carrier in Peshawar; IED kills Levies Force member, injures another, Bajaur Agency; Policemen assassinated in Swat; Five Jundullah members sentenced to prison; Report claims fall in militant attacks since start of Operation Zarb-e-Azb; Offensive in Khyber reportedly displaces over 150,000 people; MQM chief says IS a bigger threat than al Qaeda, Taliban; Pakistan on red alert ahead of Muharram Ashura processions; Government, PTI willing to re-engage in talks; Indian Home Minister says Indian retaliations actions have quieted Pakistani border violations; Prime Minister Sharif, Indian Prime Minister Modi to attend SAARC summit in November; Indian officials detain pro-independence Kashmiri leaders ahead of state elections; Kashmiri nationalist groups in Europe unite; Pakistani government to seek waiver from IMF for loan disbursement; U.S. approves sale of naval equipment to Pakistan worth $350 million.

Indo-Pak Border Suicide Attack

• On November 2, a bomber detonated a suicide vest, killing 60 people and injuring over 110, near the Wagah border crossing between India and Pakistan on the outskirts of Lahore. Three Rangers personnel were also killed and five injured in the attack. The explosion reportedly occurred as the Rangers concluded a flag-lowering ceremony at Wagah. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) splinter Jamaatul Ahrar, Jundullah and a previously unknown group calling itself TTP Mahar Mehsud faction all claimed responsibility for the attack. TTP Jamaatul Ahrar spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan, Jundullah spokesman Ahmed Marwat and TTP Mahar Mehsud commander Geelamand Mehsud independently claimed that the attack was a reaction to the ongoing military offensive in North Waziristan, Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Ehsan further declared that a suicide bomber named Hafiz Hanifullah carried out the attack and that the group would soon release video footage of the attack. Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies had both reportedly received reports of an imminent strike at Wagah, following which security had been heightened. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi strongly condemned the suicide attack and expressed grief over the loss of life.[1]

• On November 3, security forces conducted a search operation in adjoining areas of the Wagah border crossing near Lahore and recovered additional explosives and a suicide vest. The suicide vest was reportedly stuffed with eight kilograms of explosives and ball bearings. Security forces also arrested 21 suspects from the areas of Wagah, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Wazirabad, and Kasur.[2]   

Militancy

• On November 3, a tribal jirga of Mehsud tribesmen reportedly met head of the Mehsud faction of militants formerly of the TTP, Khan Sajna Said, and other commanders to negotiate for a peace agreement between the government and Mehsud militant faction. The tribal Jirga was headed by Ikramuddin, father-in-law of the dead TTP founder Baitullah Mehsud.[3]

• In multiple attacks on November 1, 18 militants were killed and 14 injured, and three security personnel were killed one injured, in airstrikes, shelling, and ground clashes in Bara sub-district, Khyber Agency. Three civilians were also killed and four injured in the fighting. The Pakistani military killed 13 militants and injured eight in airstrikes while two soldiers died in retaliatory gun attacks in the Malikdin Khel, Aka Khel, and Sipah areas of Bara sub-district, Khyber Agency. Army gunships were targeting Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) hideouts. Security forces killed five militants and injured six while one security personnel was killed in the Aka Khel area of Bara sub-district, Khyber Agency. Three civilians were killed and four civilians injured by a mortar shell in the Aka Khel area of Bara sub-district, Khyber Agency. [4]

• In multiple attacks on November 2, 10 militants were killed and seven injured, and one security official and one civilian were killed in Bara sub-district, Khyber Agency. Pakistan Air Force (PAF) jets killed five militants and injured seven in airstrikes in the Aka Khel and Sipah areas of Khyber Agency. The PAF was targeting LI hideouts in the Aka Khel area. Security forces killed five militants while one security official was injured in clashes in the Jhansi Qila area of Bara, Khyber Agency. A civilian was killed by a mortar shell in the Daroadda area of Aka Khel, Bara sub-district, Khyber Agency.[5]

• In separate clashes on November 1 and 2, militants attacked the Zawan security post in Shirin Dara area of Orakzai Agency. On November 1, Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) militants from Khyber attacked the Zawan security post and killed eight security personnel and injured three others while security forces killed 20 militants during the attack in the Shirin Dara area of Orakzai Agency. About 50 militants from the Aka Khel area of Bara sub-district, Khyber Agency participated in the attack on the security post. The next day on November 2, militants fired rockets from mountain peaks near the Zawan security post, killing a civilian and injuring four Levies Force personnel near the Shireen Dara and Khwa Dara areas of Orakzai Agency. Levies Forces retaliated by shelling militant mountain hideouts and killed five militants as a result. [6]

• On November 2, unidentified attackers fired rockets at the office of a political administrator, killing two officials and injuring two others in Orakzai Agency.[7]

• On November 2, the Sindh Police Crime Investigation Department’s Anti-Extremist Cell (AEC) arrested a would-be suicide bomber along with four of his accomplices in a raid, thwarting a terrorist plot in Kunwari Colony, Manghopir, Karachi. AEC official Ali Raza stated that the suspects belong to Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LJ) and were planning to attack the main Ashura procession in Karachi on the ninth and tenth days of Muharram. Police also seized a large cache of weapons and IEDs. Police discovered in their investigation that the suspects had been trained in making IEDs in Waziristan.[8]

• On October 31, police in Karachi arrested two TTP members who were involved in the October 18, 2007 attack on a Benazir Bhutto rally in Karachi and a targeted killer responsible for the deaths of at least 20 people.[9]

• On October 31, unidentified attackers threw a grenade into a police vehicle, injuring two policemen who were providing security to an Imambargah in Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Karachi.[10]

• On October 31, unidentified gunmen fired at a police vehicle, injuring two policemen in Nagan Chowrangi, Karachi.[11]

• On November 3, a blast injured six people in Sector 5-E in Orangi Town, Karachi.[12]

• On November 1, police arrested nine militants in a search operation near Badaber and Matani, Peshawar district, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.[13]

• On November 1, a mortar shell killed a civilian in the Sheikhan village near Badaber, Peshawar district, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.[14]

• On November 1, a police armored personnel carrier was hit by an IED on the Frontier Road near Aziz Market, Peshawar. No one was injured in the attack.[15]

• On November 1, an improvised explosive device (IED) killed a member of the Levies Force and injured another member in the Qamar Sar area of Mamund sub-district, Bajaur Agency. Security forces detained at least 20 people in search operations in response to the attacks.[16]

• On November 1, unidentified gunmen shot dead a policeman in Madina Colony of Matta sub-district, Swat, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. On November 1 and 2, security forces conducted search operations in connection to the attack and arrested 80 suspects in Matta sub-district.[17] 

• On November 1, an Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) sentenced five members of the militant group Jundullah to prison for possessing illegal weapons and extorting money.[18]

• According to a report in The News on November 2, the Conflict Monitoring Center has revealed in its monthly report that average militant attacks declined in all parts of the country during the first four months of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Wazirisatan. However, attacks in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have increased due to efforts by militants to regain territory, the report claims. The monthly average number of militant attacks in the country has reportedly dropped from 29 to 23 since the start of Operation Zarb-e-Azb.[19]  

Internally Displaced Persons

• On October 31, disaster management officials claimed that since the launch of a military offensive in Kyber Agency on October 13, 171,559 people have fled from Khyber to the cities of Peshawar and Kohat. According to officials, most people are staying with relatives while a few have chosen to stay in government-run camps.[20] 

• According to the Human Rights Commssion of Pakistan (HRCP) on November 3, at least 15,000 Baloch people have migrated from Turbat, Panjgur, Gwadar, Awaran, and Kharan disticts in Balochistan due to violence. Most of these migrants have moved to Karachi, Islamabad, and Quetta. However, Balochistan’s Home Secretary Akbar Hussain Durrani denies that migrants are leaving Balochistan citing security improvements in Makran, Kalat, and Khuzdar. Meanwhile, the Home Department of Balochistan submitted a report with provincial violence statistics from law enforcement agencies and paramilitary security forces to the Chief Minister of Balochistan, Dr. Malik Baloch. The report revealed that despite a recent uptick in violence in Balochistan, year-to-date violence in Balochistan has fallen 50% from what it was this time last year.[21]

Islamic State in South Asia

• On October 31, speaking at a press conference via telephone from London, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) chief Altaf Hussain declared that Islamic State (IS) is more dangerous than al Qaeda and Taliban and a bigger threat than the latter to Pakistan. He cited the appearance of IS flags in some parts of the country as evidence of IS’s growing presence. According to Pakistani security analyst Amir Rana, “IS is becoming a major inspiration force for both violent and non-violent religious groups in the region.” Security officials quoted in media reports retort that IS has not established a presence in the region and that recent IS-related events are local, individual initiatives.[22]

National Security

• On November 3, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan placed the entire country on red alert for the mourning processions of Ashura, a day after the suicide bombing at the Wagah border crossing near Lahore.  Khan declared on November 1 that cellular services would be suspended in various parts of the country on the 9th and 10th of Muharram. He also said that the Interior Ministry had called for the deployment of 32,695 Army, Rangers, Frontier Corps and Frontier Constabulary personnel in 54 districts across the country to maintain law and order.[23]

• On November 2, security forces sealed the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Kurram Agency and deployed thousands of personnel to avoid any militant attacks in connection with Muharram.  The administration also banned entry of vehicles into the area during Muharram.[24]

Political Crisis

• On November 1, the government declared that it was willing to engage in talks with the protesting Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party in order to reach a settlement with its chief, Imran Khan. PTI member Arif Alvi also declared that his party was ready for talks if it was invited through proper channels and not through statements in the media.[25]

Iran-Pakistan Relations

• On November 1, Iranian security forces sealed the Iran-Pakistan border at Taftan for five days in order to avoid any incidents during the Shia holiday of Ashura. The Pakistani government also deployed Frontier Corps (FC) personnel to guard the border and declared that all trade activities would remain suspended for five days.[26]

• On October 31, Adviser to the Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, met Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process conference in Beijing and discussed bilateral relations. Both envoys reportedly believe that bilateral economic and trade relations would be further enhanced at the Join Economic Commission meeting to be held in Islamabad in 2015.[27]  

Indo-Pakistan Relations

• On October 31, addressing a convention of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers, Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh claimed that the Indian army had given a “befitting reply (to Pakistan) for violating [the] ceasefire” along the border and that Islamabad would not dare to disturb peace again anytime soon.[28] 

• According to an Express Tribune report on November 3, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi are scheduled to attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Kathmandu on November 26 and 27. According to officials, the two leaders will exchange a formal handshake but no bilateral meeting has been planned as yet.[29] 

• According to an Express Tribune report on November 2, Indian officials have detained several pro-independence Kashmiri leaders including All Parties Hurriyat Conference (AHPC) leader Syed Ali Geelani, after the announcement of elections in Indian-administered Kashmir. Meanwhile, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, Chairman on the Awami Action Committee, has asked all pro-independence groups to oppose state elections.[30] 

• According to a report in The News on November 3, about a dozen Kashmir nationalist groups in Europe have formed an alliance called Jammu Kashmir International People’s Alliance (JKIPA) to “expedite the struggle” for free Kashmir. Sardar Shaukat Ali Kashmiri, leader of the United Kashmir People’s National Party (UKPNP), has been appointed as the secretary general of the alliance.[31]

Economy

• According to a report in The News on November 2, the Pakistani government will have to seek a waiver from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on quantitative performance criteria of raising foreign currency reserves in order to qualify for obtaining two loan installments worth $1.1 billion in December 2014. The government had committed to increasing foreign currency reserves by $3 billion by the end of September but claims it could not achieve its target due to the economic impact of recent protests by Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) and PTI in Islamabad.[32]  

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• According to a report in The News on November 2, the U.S. State Department has approved the sale of $350 million worth of naval equipment to Pakistan which includes the sale of naval gun systems, machineguns, and rigid inflatable boats. The sale is expected to improve Pakistani Navy’s ability to safeguard coastal areas.[33]