Pakistan Security Brief

Military launches new military operation in Khyber, nine killed and 10 injured, in the Bara area, Khyber Agency; 20 suspected militants arrested in Swat, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa; Foreign Secretary claims peace with India a top priority; Ceasefire-violations a strategy to integrate Kashmir into India, says PM’s aide; Former President Musharraf says Pakistan needs to incite Kashmiri people to revolt against India; India successfully test-fires first nuclear-capable cruise missile; Indian Home Affairs Minister claims no one can threaten India; Iran wans of crossing Pakistan border to combat terrorists; PM visits PAF headquarters; PAT to call off sit-ins in Islamabad, 5,000 PAT protestors leave; PTI-backed candidate beats PML-backed candidate in important by-election in Multan, Punjab; PM chairs high-level meeting with ministers in Islamabad.

Militancy

• On October 17, security forces killed at least nine militants and injured 10 others a new military operation named Khyber I, targeting the Bara area of Khyber Agency. The militants were killed as security forces successfully gained control of a border check post. The main objective of Khyber I is to clear Bara district to the border of the Tirah Valley. Then, an as-of-yet undefined second phase of the operation will begin. Security forces have imposed a curfew throughout the area and prohibited entry and exit form Bara. The Capital City Police Chief Peshawar Muhammad Ijaz stated that Operation Khyber I will negatively affect Peshawar due to its proximity to Bara district as displaced tribesmen and militants will likely enter Peshawar from Khyber.[1]

• On October 16, security forces arrested 20 suspected persons in search operation in Charbagh Bazaar, Swat, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.[2]

Indo-Pakistan Relations

• Addressing a meeting of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs in Islamabad on October 16, Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry declared that Pakistan was committed to pursuing a policy of peaceful relations with its neighbors and that peace with India was a priority in Pakistan’s foreign policy agenda. The Prime Minister’s Advisor on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, further claimed that the ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) were a part of India’s strategy to integrate Kashmir into its territory and “neutralize” Pakistan.[3]

•  On October 16, Former President Gen. Parvez Musharraf said that Pakistan needed to incite people in Kashmir to fight against India and claimed that the Pakistan Army was prepared for a war with India.[4]

Indian Security Affairs

• On October 17, India successfully test fired its first indigenously-developed, nuclear-capable long-range cruise missile called “Nirbhay” from Chandipur in Odisha state. According to officials from India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO), the missile has a range of more than 700 kilometers with good loitering capability, effective control and guidance, a high degree of accuracy and effective stealth features.[5]

• On October 16, Indian Union Minister for Home Affairs Rajnath Singh reacted to China’s comments over the Indian decision to construct a highway along the Arunachal Pradesh border with China and said that India was a powerful country and that no one could warn India. Singh stressed on the need for India and China to sit together to resolve the border issue. On October 15, the Chinese foreign ministry had expressed hope that India would not take any action that could complicate the China-India border issue.[6]

Iran-Pakistan Relations

• On October 16, Iran’s Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) warned Pakistan that Iranian forces would cross the border into Pakistan to contain terrorists if Pakistan failed to secure its border and stop terrorists from entering into Iran. He reiterated that Iran was against intervening in the affairs of any country but that Iran would have to act if Pakistan failed to abide by its obligations.[7]

Military

• On October 16, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) headquarters and discussed the ongoing operation in North Waziristan. Sharif praised the role of the PAF in Operation Zarb-e-Azb and expressed his continued support for the military’s operations in the region.[8] 

Political Crisis and Domestic Politics

• On October 17, around 5,000 protestors from the Pakistani Awami Tehreek (PAT) party left the D-Chowk in Islamabad, dismantling more than 500 tents erected during the 60-days protest by the party. The PAT has reportedly decided in principle to call off the sit-in, with a formal decision to be announced after PAT’s Lahore rally. According to The News, major allies of the PAT, including Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) and Awami Muslim League (AML) are reportedly trying to convince PAT chief Tahirul Qadri to continue the sit-in in Islamabad.[9]

• On October 16, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-backed candidate Malik Amir Dogar defeated Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML)-backed candidate and PTI defector Makhdoom Javed Hashmi in the Multan (NA-149) by-election. Dogar gave the credit to his victory to the support of the PTI and in turn has announced that he will join the PTI following his confirmation.[10]

• On October 17, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif chaired a high-level meeting with key ministers and advisors in Islamabad. Topics of discussion likely included cross-border violence along the LoC and working boundary and the victory of PTI-backed candidate Dogar over the PML-backed Hashmi in Multan, Punjab.[11]