Pakistan Security Brief

Eight die in Orakzai operation, 43,000 displaced in Tirah Valley conflict; U.S. reports confirm ISI and CIA collaboration for drone strikes;  Pakistan successfully tests nuclear-capable missile; Indian PM Gandhi offered nuclear technology in 1974, Pakistan declined; Mangal Bagh assumes supreme TTP, U.S. State department issues travel warning for Pakistan; LI leadership in Khyber; Militants kill polio security guard; Police officer shot in Karachi; Four die in Karachi targeted attacks; Militants kill children in Balochistan grenade attack; ANP hardest hit by TTP Karachi threats; PTI releases new manifesto.

Tirah Valley Operation

• On Tuesday, Pakistani government officials announced that Mangal Bagh, the head of militant group Lashkar-e-Islam, has been appointed the head of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) faction in Khyber agency, including the Tirah valley.  The announcement came towards the end of a military operation, now it its fifth day, against the TTP and LI in the Tirah valley, which resulted in the deaths of over 110 militants and at least 25 soldiers. According to military officials, “The main thrust of the current military offensive is the Mangal Bagh-led Lashkar-i-Islam while the Taliban area is [being] dealt with through the air strikes.”[1]

• On Tuesday, two soldiers were injured and eight militants killed in a clash in the Daburai area of Orakzai, as part of a continuing offensive in and near the Tirah valley against the TTP and LI. Despite superior military numbers, training, and equipment, security forces are reportedly facing harsh counterattacks and resistance.  Militants have been able to resist by using the steep, relentless terrain to their advantage, and by tapping into tribal networks for support and resources. The fighting in and near the valley has displaced over 43,000 civilians so far, and taken a particularly heavy toll on the army’s Special Services Group commando unit, which bore the brunt of military casualties in an ambush when clearing a village.[2]

Drone Strikes

• According to Top-Secret U.S. intelligence reports released to McClatchy Newspapers, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) collaborated with the CIA to coordinate and target drone strikes in Pakistan. The Pakistani ambassador in Washington “forcefully contest[s]” the claim that the ISI and CIA worked together.  The article also explained that the strikes were launched from within Pakistan, at “Shamsi, a remote airfield in southwestern Balochistan.” Drone attacks spiked in 2008 amid increasing reports of militants from Western countries traveling to Pakistan for training to carry out attacks back home. The U.S. reportedly stopped seeking approval for drone strikes, and began conducting “signature strikes,” where the exact identity of the target is unknown, once U.S. officials convinced the government that Pakistan was sheltering certain enemy groups such as the Haqqani Network.[3]

Nuclear Capable Missile Test

• On Wednesday, the Pakistan Army’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) announced that Pakistani engineers successfully tested a nuclear-capable, medium-range ballistic missile called Hatf IV (Shaheen-1).  The missile reportedly hit its intended target at sea.[4]

Indo-Pak Relations

• According to a Times of India report on Wednesday referencing the latest WikiLeaks release, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi offered to share nuclear technology with Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in 1974. Bhutto ultimately declined the deal, because, the report claims, he was not reasonably assured that India's nuclear program was benign vis-a-vis Pakistan. [5]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• On Tuesday, the U.S. State Department issued a warning against traveling to Pakistan for any reason other than essential visits, because of the danger of the Pakistani government harassing travelers, kidnappings and terrorism.  It further advised that U.S, citizens have valid visas and passports on them at all times. [6]

Militancy

• On Wednesday, militants opened fire on a polio vaccination team working in Mardan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, killing one police officer and injuring another. [7]

• On Tuesday evening, unknown militants shot and killed a senior police officer of Saddar’s Preedy police station in Karachi. There have been mixed reports about the nature of the attack, with some sources saying he was gunned down by motorcyclists, and others suggesting he was killed in a sniper attack. In a separate attack, a man was shot to death in Mobina Town, Karachi.  In another incident, police recovered the body of a woman who had been killed in her house in Korangi.  Separately, militants opened fire and killed a man in his house in Nusrat Bhutto Colony.  Elsewhere, a man was injured when armed men shot and wounded him in Baldia Town.  [8]

• On Wednesday, militants killed two children and injured one man when they threw a grenade at a house in Pasni, Balochistan. [9]

Domestic Politics

• Recent threats from the TTP and strict rules from the Election Commission of Pakistan have sparked protest from leaders in the Awami National Party (ANP), Pakistan Peoples party (PPP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), because they say their campaigns in Karachi have been restricted.  The TTP has threatened to attack those parties and warned them against holding large public gatherings. The ANP is hardest hit by Taliban threats and rules imposed by the ECP; party president Shahi Syed said “at least 35 offices of the party at Sohrab Goth, Ittehad Town, Manghopir, Sultanabad, Kunwari Colony, Pashtunabad and Landhi have been closed by militants.” The ECP has banned the use of party wall graffiti, a common practice by political parties in Pakistan.[10]

• On Tuesday, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) released its 13-point manifesto outlining their plan to stem what they consider the six leading causes of “terror and lawlessness” in the country. [11]