Pakistan Security Brief

Afghan Foreign Minister dismisses need for Pakistan in peace talks; Pakistani soldiers shell across Afghan border, Afghans cancel military visit in retaliation; ISI reports 49,000 casualties since 2001, accuses Afghanistan of supporting Taliban; Committee selects Punjabi interim Prime Minister; Army ensures Musharraf has full security detail in Islamabad; Kayani meets with Corps Commanders; 4 militants die in attack on check post; Rangers arrest 30 in Karachi; IED injures 2 in Bajaur; IED’s injure two in Peshawar; Islamabad and Rawalpindi airports on high alert.

Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations                          

• In a conversation with reporters on Wednesday, Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin said that “Afghanistan is shocked by Pakistan's "complacency" in the nascent Afghan peace process and is ready to work without Islamabad's help on reconciliation,” referencing peace talks with the Taliban.  Ludin spoke specifically to alleged Pakistani efforts to circumvent President Hamid Karzai and the Afghan government, saying that the Pakistani attempt to spark talks between the Taliban and the Afghan opposition is actively undoing all progress from the last decade.  Karzai’s chief of staff Abdel Karim Khurram explained that some of the breakdown in relations came from alleged Pakistani pre-conditions to peace talks during the February tri-lateral talks between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Britain in London.  Khurram said the Pakistani conditions were unreasonable and showed no commitment to the peace process. As a further sign of contentious relations, Ludin said an Afghan military trip to participate in a simulated military exercise at a Pakistani Staff College was canceled this week after “more than two dozen Pakistani artillery shells were fired into Afghanistan's eastern province of Kunar on March 25 and 26.”  Eleven Afghan National Army (ANA) officers who were originally meant to visit Quetta are now abstaining from the exercises.  Ludin’s comments mark a sharp reversal from President Karzai’s comments at a press conference in Kabul with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, where Karzai said that “Pakistan’s role in peace talks [is] crucial.” [1]

ISI Report

• On Tuesday, top intelligence agencies including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) released a report to the Pakistani Supreme Court detailing casualties from the War on Terror, saying over 49,000 had people died since 2001.  According to the report, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is fracturing and weaker than it was in 2008 because of actions by the Pakistani state.  However, splinter factions of the TTP are strong, and continue to conduct attacks on the Shia community, specifically in Quetta.  The report further said that “the Afghan government was colluding with the Swat chapter of TTP.” The report explained that “strong support” from Afghanistan, including money, weapons, logistics, and training, is “one of the main factors for increased militancy.” The agencies were presenting in front of the court in defense of their use of an act that allows the military to indefinitely detain individuals linked to terrorism in military-run jails in northwest Pakistan.[2]

Domestic Politics

• On Tuesday, a six person committee of three Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) members and three opposition members from the Pakistani Peoples’ Party (PPP) members selected prominent Pakistani journalist Najam Sethi as the interim Chief Minister for Punjab, to lead the temporary government until elections on May 11. [3]

• On Wednesday, police officials announced that former President Pervez Musharraf will be provided full security when he is in Islamabad.  The meeting to determine his security provisions was delayed on Tuesday, but officials say they have conclusive plans as of Wednesday, and will “coordinate with [Musharraf] as needed.”[4]

• President Asif Ali Zardari’s son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is currently in Dubai, allegedly refusing to participate in election campaigning because of political differences with his father.  Supposedly, his primary contentions stem from the President’s non-response to bomb attacks on Shias in Quetta and the “handling of the assassination attempt targeting child activist Malala Yousafzai.”  A PPP spokesperson denied allegations of “familial infighting,” and said the trip to Dubai was for routine, personal reasons.[5]

• On Wednesday, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani met with the army’s Corps Commanders at General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi to discuss the domestic and international security situation in Pakistan, his recent meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, and the Election Commission of Pakistan’s request to deploy army personnel at polling station for security.  On Tuesday, Kayani briefed the newly sworn-in interim Prime Minister Justice (retired) Mir Hazar Khan Khoso at the Prime Minister’s House in Islamabad, where Kayani assured him that the army will provide security during polls. [6]

Militancy

• On Tuesday, security forces exchanged fire with Taliban militants when Afghanistan-based fighters attacked a security check post in Nawagai sub-district of Bajaur Agency, killing four.  Security forces said the militants injured one security official when they attacked in Mattak area, near the border with Afghanistan.[7]

• On Tuesday, Rangers in Sultanabad area, Karachi, arrested 30 militants and held nine after the militants attempted to intimidate a polio vaccination team by aerial firing.  Responding to the firing, Rangers conducted a raid, detaining the militants and seizing a large weapons cache.[8]

• On Tuesday, a bomb in Damadola village of Bajaur detonated, injuring two security personnel.[9]

• As of Tuesday night, the “Noor Khan Airbase and Benazir Bhutto International Airport were placed on ‘high alert,’” after intelligence suggested there was a severe terrorist threat against the air bases in Rawalpindi in the next 24 hours. [10]

• Citing the tumultuous security and law-and-order situation in Pakistan, security officials placed Islamabad on “high alert” on Wednesday, increasing police vigilance, patrols, and security screening across the capital city. [11]

• On Wednesday, two separate bombs targeting the PPP near Yunus Park in Peshawar and on Peshawar’s Shami Road both exploded, damaging buildings and causing injuries. The blast near Yunus Park detonated outside an arms dealer next door to the Peoples Labour office for Peshawar, damaging buildings and cars and wounding two people.  The blast on Shami Road damaged PPP leader Akbar Khan Mohmand’s house, but caused no casualties.[12]

• On Wednesday, unknown militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) outside former provincial assembly member Babar Ali Khan Mohmand’s house in Shabqadar sub-district, Charsadda.  There were no reported casualties or significant damage.[13]

• On Monday night, unknown militants fired a rocket at a Levies Force checkpost in Khar, Bajaur, damaging the building but causing no casualties.[14]

• On Tuesday, two armed motorcyclists shot and killed a man at his timber stall in Muneerabad area, Taxila.  Another man was kidnapped from Nogazi area by unknown militants.[15]