Pakistan Security Brief

General Allen and Secretary of Defense Panetta seek improved U.S.-Pakistan relations; State Department spokeswoman clarifies that $700 million in frozen aid to Pakistan not yet finalized; Recommendations of Envoy’s Conference released; PTI to hold Karachi rally on December 25, Sindh government gives approval; ANP expresses worry over pro-military demonstration; President Zardari to be released from Dubai hospital on Thursday; Zardari not required to respond to Abbottabad query, says PPP; Khar claims Rabbani assassination the work of Afghan refugees; Militants kidnap pro-government militia members; Two FC soldiers killed by landmine in Mand Balo; Night-long clash between PAC and KRC leaves four dead.

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• On Tuesday, General John Allen, the Commander of NATO troops in Afghanistan, announced that he had spoken with Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani on Monday. Reflecting on his first conversation with Kayani since the November 26 NATO airstrikes that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers, Allen, said, “I do have a sense of progress.” Allen claimed that he and Kayani share a mutual desire to restore border relations and that he expects Pakistan to reassign its liaison officers to coordination centers along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border soon. Meanwhile, during a trip to Kabul on Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta emphasized the importance of improving U.S.-Pakistan relations. Panetta said, “Ultimately, we can’t win the war in Afghanistan without being able to win in our relationship with Pakistan as well.”[1]

• On Wednesday, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland clarified that the U.S. had not yet cut $700 million in aid to Pakistan, as was reported in media sources on Tuesday. However, Nuland indicated that a Congressional panel had reached an agreement to freeze $700 million in aid to Pakistan which will be included in the Defense Authorization Bill currently moving toward a vote in Congress. Nuland added, “If this legislation becomes law, we’ll work with the government of Pakistan on how we can fulfill the requirements. But this requires us to maintain a strategic perspective and to be clear with our Congress about the strategy.”[2]

• At the end of a two-day Envoy’s Conference, attended by key Pakistani ambassadors and government officials, a decision was reached to renegotiate two 2002 agreements between Pakistan and NATO countries regarding the transit of NATO supplies through Pakistan and Pakistani logistical support to NATO operations. Meanwhile, the BBC reports that the U.S. is preparing to increase its use of the Northern Distribution Network, which routes NATO supplies through the Caucasus and Central Asia, in response to Pakistan’s continued blockade of NATO supply routes following the November 26 NATO raid that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.[3]

Pakistani Politics

• On Tuesday, Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party leaders pledged to hold a political rally at the mausoleum of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan’s founder, in Karachi on December 25. The rally is to be held despite possible opposition from the Sindh government. On Wednesday, Sindh Home Minister Manzoor Wasan approved PTI’s rally request, and added that PTI could host a rally anywhere in Karachi, including Jinnah’s mausoleum.[4]

• During a Monday Senate meeting, Awami National Party (ANP) senators expressed worry over a “pro-military demonstration held in Islamabad” that appeared to “instigate institutions to mutiny against [Pakistan’s] democratic government.”  Senate leaders told those concerned that the Pakistani government had “taken notice” and would launch an investigation into the demonstration.[5]

• President Asif Ali Zardari is expected to be released from the American Hospital in Dubai on Thursday, according to a statement released by the President’s press office, after spending nearly 10 days in the hospital.  The statement, however, did not indicate when President Zardari would return to Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Guardian reports on the “largely ceremonial” powers of President Zardari, noting that the bulk of Zardari’s authority is derived from his position as “joint head…of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP),” a position he co-chairs with his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.[6]

Abbottabad Commission

• On Tuesday, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) announced that President Zardari would not be required to answer “questions sent to him by the Abbottabad Commission.” The commission, which is investigating the May 2 raid by U.S. Special Operations Forces on Osama bin Laden’s compound, recently began to interview “politicians representing major political parties,” however PPP asserts that President Zardari’s participation in the commission would be “optional, not binding.”[7]

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

• On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar suggested that the assassination of Afghan peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani had been carried out by Afghan refugees residing in Pakistan. Khar also spoke out against Afghanistan’s allegations of Pakistani culpability in the assassination, saying, “Pakistan has baselessly been charged with recent attacks in Kabul. If [Afghanistan has] any problem, Pakistan should not be made a scapegoat by the Afghan government.”[8]

FATA

• Militants kidnapped five “pro-government militiamen” from the Shalobar area of Bara sub-district, Khyber agency on Wednesday.  At least one militiaman was killed, while another four are “still missing.”[9]

Balochistan

• Two Frontier Corps (FC) officers were killed and another five were wounded when their vehicle stuck a landmine in Mand Balo on Wednesday.[10]

Karachi Violence

• A skirmish broke out between armed wings of the banned Peoples Amn Committee (PAC) and Kutchi Rabita Committee (KRC) in Karachi on Tuesday night. Four people were killed in multiple encounters between the two groups, which continued throughout the night.[11]