Pakistan Security Brief

Obama reaches out to Zardari in response to NATO incident; U.S. to vacate Shamsi Airbase; Memogate whistleblower begins new round of political accusations; TTP losing power as group splinters; NATO to increase pressure on Pakistan-based militant groups; Afghan prison holds 30 Pakistanis, according to U.S.; Pakistani man in U.S. pleads guilty to aiding LeT; London police arrest three Pakistanis at Heathrow airport; Bonn Conference commences in Germany, Pakistan absent; Security forces reinforce security measures in North Waziristan, three FC soldiers injured in blast; LI captures “strategic hilltop” in Khyber agency; Militants attack market in Kohat; Security measures increased during Ashura; Pakistan to ask Australia to lift ban or uranium sales; UN reports reluctance to trust international health workers after “fake vaccination campaign.”

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• On Sunday, President Obama reached out to his Pakistani counterpart, President Asif Ali Zardari, to “express condolences” over the non- deliberate November 26 NATO airstrike that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in Mohmand agency.  Obama maintained that the U.S. was committed to carrying out a “full investigation” into the incident, which the Pakistani government and military have decided not to assist, while Pakistani officials continued to maintain that NATO had given Pakistani military officials the incorrect location of the strike before it was allegedly approved.   Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani later suggested that Pakistan was striving to “restore some normalcy” to U.S.-Pakistan relations but that the country was seeking to reset the U.S.-Pakistan alliance “in ways more beneficial to Pakistan.”  Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports on the series of crises U.S.-Pakistan relations have faced within the past year and the “disconnect between…short-term security objectives and long-term diplomatic goals.”  And, the Daily Beast reports that former U.S. intelligence officials fear that the “CIA’s alternate security network” in Pakistan may be the “ultimate casualty” of recent turmoil between the U.S. and Pakistan, threatening ten years of counterterrorism gains in the country.[1]

• A U.S. aircraft arrived at Shamsi Airbase in Balochistan on Sunday to remove U.S. citizens from the airbase ahead of the December 11 vacation deadline mandated by the Pakistani government in response to the November 26 NATO airstrike.[2]

• Mansoor Ijaz, the U.S. citizen of Pakistani descent at the heart of the “memogate” scandal, began a new round of political accusations over the weekend, claiming that both President Zardari and the former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S., Hussain Haqqani, had foreknowledge of the May 2 raid by U.S. Special Operations Forces that killed former al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan;  the White House and Haqqani have since rejected the claim.  In the Daily Beast, Ijaz alleged that Zardari and Haqqani were attempting to use Pakistani outrage over the presence of bin Laden in Abbottabad as a catalyst to oust Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy chief General Ahmad Shuja Pasha.  In addition, Ijaz wrote that Haqqani had attempted to cover up his involvement in the “memogate” scandal by changing phones three times.  Later, Ijaz stated that he was willing to return to Pakistan to appear before the Supreme Court commission investigating the scandal, while Prime Minister Gilani’s nominee to lead the inquiry, former senior police officer Tariq Khosa, declined the offer on Friday.  Meanwhile, Interior Minister Rehman Malik declared that the U.S. should “take action” against Ijaz for his role in attempting “to destabilize Pakistan by telling lies” and the Christian Science Monitor reports on Ijaz’s history as a self-proclaimed “citizen diplomat.”[3]

Pakistani Taliban

• On Sunday, the Associated Press reported on the diminishing capacity of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) due to the “splintering” of the terrorist group into over “100 smaller factions.”  Analysts cite that the first signs of splintering appeared after the death of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud in 2009; however, more recently, the leaders of different militant factions have been “making their own peace talks with the [Pakistani] government,” which one analyst says could benefit the Pakistan Army’s operation against insurgents by “separat[ing] more leaders from the TTP and more foot soldiers from their commanders.”[4]

War on Terror

• Within the next two years, NATO commanders are expected to launch a “substantial offensive in eastern Afghanistan aimed at insurgent groups based in Pakistan,” according to Western officials, who “have not [yet] ruled out cross-border raids with ground troops.”  The offensive against Pakistan-based terrorist groups is expected to increase pressure on the Pakistani military to “eliminate” militant safe havens while sending the message that NATO troops are prepared to unilaterally combat Pakistan’s militant threat.[5]

• The U.S. Joint Task Force 435, which oversees Afghanistan’s Bagram prison, has revealed that 30 Pakistanis have been detained at the prison for over ten years.  Various human rights and charity groups have called for the release of the prisoners, claiming that the men have been held “without being charged” in addition to suffering from physical abuse and solitary confinement.[6]

• On Friday, a Pakistani man living in Virginia “pleaded guilty in a U.S. court…to providing [material] support to the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) by making a propaganda video and posting it online” in 2010. The man, Jubair Ahmad, also admitted to having communicated with Talha Saeed, the son of the LeT leader Hafiz Mohammad Saeed.[7]

• On Sunday, police detained three Pakistanis, including one woman, from a Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) plane that landed at Heathrow Airport in London.  UK Anti-Terrorism and Immigration officials are reportedly “interrogating the detained Pakistanis,” although no further details of the detainment have been reported.[8]

Bonn Conference

• In an article published in the German newspaper Der Spiegel on Monday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai accused Pakistan of “sabotaging all negotiations with the Taliban” and expressed frustration over Pakistan’s decision to boycott this week’s Bonn Conference on the future of Afghanistan in Bonn, Germany.  Meanwhile, Germany’s Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, articulated that Pakistan had the most to gain from “a stable and peaceful Afghanistan,” while voicing regret over Pakistan’s boycott of the conference.[9]

FATA

• On Saturday, the Pakistani military announced that it had bolstered security along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in North Waziristan in response to the November 26 NATO attack.  Meanwhile, an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on a Frontier Corps (FC) convoy injured three FC soldiers on the Bannu-Miram Shah Road in Mir Ali on Sunday.  Security forces retaliated by imposing a curfew and conducting an aerial assault on “targets in the area.”  A security forces bomb squad later defused four additional IEDs on Bannu-Miram Shah Road.[10]

• Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) militants reportedly “recaptured” a “strategic hilltop” in the Dari area of Tirah Valley, Khyber agency on Saturday.  The hilltop was previously occupied by the Zakhakhel tribal militia.  Elsewhere, security forces launched a search operation in Jamrud sub-district, detaining six suspects.[11]

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

• Two people, including a police officer, were killed during a militant attack using rocket-propelled grenades at a market in Kohat on Monday.   Eight other people were injured in the attack.[12]

Ashura

• The cities of Islamabad, Karachi, and Dera Ismail have been put on “red alert” on Monday and Tuesday during Ashura, a Shia religious observance.  Interior Minister Malik warned that anti-Shia terrorists may plan to launch attacks during Ashura and said that security measures had increased in response to the threat.[13]

Uranium

• On Sunday, Australia voted to lift a ban prohibiting the sale of uranium to India, which was originally meant to target non-signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).  In response, Pakistan’s High Commissioner has appealed to Australia to lift the ban on its sale of uranium to Pakistan as well.[14]

Healthcare

• The UN has reported that Pakistanis have become reluctant to receive polio vaccines from international health workers following news of a “fake vaccination campaign” carried out by CIA to gain Osama bin Laden’s DNA.[15]