Pakistan Security Brief

U.S.-Pakistan relations face new crisis after NATO airstrikes kill 24 Pakistani soldiers; U.S. and Pakistan to discuss “memogate” scandal at next week’s Bonn Conference; U.S. pushes for TAPI pipeline as alternative to Iran-Pakistan pipeline; Qureshi joins Khan’s PTI party; Seven injured in Khyber agency blast; Security forces launch attack against militants in Kurram agency, militants attack passenger van; Militants attack security forces in Orakzai agency; Security forces arrest five people and confiscate explosives in Parachinar; Swat militant commander arrested; India looks to Pakistan on third anniversary of Mumbai attacks; Rangers conduct search operation, violence erupts after murder of security forces; Ammonium nitrate fertilizer bombs from Pakistan a threat to U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• NATO airstrikes on two Pakistan military checkposts in Salala, Mohmand agency resulted in the death of at least 24 Pakistani soldiers on Saturday.  Shortly after the incident, NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) spokesman Brigadier General Carsten Jacobson noted that it was “highly likely” that NATO was responsible for the helicopter and fighter jet airstrikes; however, Western officials later suggested that the attacks may have been provoked after U.S. and Afghan Special Forces in the area came under fire from the Pakistan side of the border.  Pakistan Army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas denied the allegations that Pakistani troops had fired first and indicated that the U.S. was fully aware of the grid points of all Pakistani military checkposts. He also claimed that “local [Pakistani] commanders” pleaded with NATO to end the two hour-long raid as it was happening. The attacks have marked a new crisis in already strained U.S.-Pakistan relations, and Pakistan has demanded that the U.S. leave Pakistan’s Shamsi Air Base in Balochistan, which the U.S. reportedly uses to launch drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal regions, within 15 days.  Pakistan has sealed its border with Afghanistan “indefinitely,” effectively disrupting NATO supply routes to Afghanistan. The Pakistani oil association that “delivers fuel to NATO forces in Afghanistan” announced it would halt supply deliveries in protest against the attack.  The U.S. pledged to investigate the “tragic, unintended incident” as U.S. senior military and political leaders extended their sympathies to Pakistan over the weekend.   Pakistan’s Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani publically denounced the “attack on Pakistan's sovereignty” and called on the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, as thousands of protestors gathered outside the U.S. Consulate in Karachi to demand an end to Pakistan’s cooperation with the U.S. in the war on terror. On Monday, the Pakistani government threatened to “drastically reduce cooperation on peace efforts in Afghanistan,” while the Chinese government expressed its support and respect for Pakistan’s “independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”  On Sunday, Pakistan’s Cabinet Committee on Defence (DCC) held an emergency meeting in which it voted to boycott next week’s Bonn Conference on the future of Afghanistan in protest of Saturday’s NATO attack. Meanwhile, Pakistani Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan urged Pakistan to “respond” to the NATO attacks, warning that the Pakistani Taliban would continue to wage jihad against Pakistan as long as the country was an ally of the U.S.  A Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman and commander in Mohmand agency, Mukarrum Khurasani, reiterated the Pakistani Taliban’s sentiments, adding that the U.S. could “never be a friend of Pakistan.”  In the wake of the crisis, U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan are now “bracing for possible reprisals from Pakistani-backed insurgents.”[1]

• Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar was expected to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the Bonn Conference to discuss the “memogate” scandal that erupted when a secret cable from Pakistan’s former Ambassador to the U.S. Hussain Haqqani to former U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen was made public.  Last week, the U.S. “praised the service” of Haqqani, who resigned his position in response to the scandal, and noted that the U.S. looked forward to working with Haqqani’s replacement, Sherry Rehman. In an interview with the BBC, Khar admitted that the scandal had “raised questions about the strength of [Pakistan’s] civilian government.” Meanwhile, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif called on the Supreme Court to place travel restrictions on Haqqani to prevent him from fleeing the country in the midst of the “memogate” scandal as the Lahore High Court (LHC) announced that had insufficient evidence to prosecute Haqqani for high treason.  The PML-N also submitted a petition to the Supreme Court on Monday, calling for an investigation into the scandal.[2]

• On Friday, the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter said that plans for an Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline were not in Pakistan’s best interest as he expressed support for an alternative pipeline, the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline, which would allow Pakistan to purchase gas from Turkmenistan.  Pakistan’s Information Minister Dr. Firdous Ashiq Awan responded to Munter’s comments, noting that Pakistan would “not take dictation [from the U.S.] on the gas pipeline issue.”[3]

Pakistani Politics

• On Sunday, Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi announced that he would join former cricket star turned politician Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) political party following weeks of speculation on the matter.  Qureshi made his announcement in the presence of over 40,000 PTI supporters at a rally in Ghotki and proceeded to criticize President Zardari’s civilian government while questioning the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Qureshi will reportedly become “vice captain” in the PTI party after rejecting a membership offer from the PML-N.  Meanwhile on Saturday, Khan responded to the deadly NATO attack in Pakistan and demanded an end to Pakistan’s alliance with the U.S. in the “aimless” war on terror.[4]

FATA

• Seven people were injured, including four soldiers, during an explosion at the Landi Kotal Bazaar in Khyber agency on Monday.  The blast reportedly targeted a paramilitary vehicle.[5]

• Security forces launched an offensive against “militant strongholds” in Kurram agency on Friday, killing 35 militants.  Four soldiers were also killed in the operation.  Meanwhile, militants detonated a remote-controlled explosive device in the Durrani area of Kurram agency on Thursday, injuring 12 people in a passenger van.[6]

• Security forces killed 22 militants during three separate clashes in Orakzai agency on Friday.  One soldier was also killed.[7]

• Security forces arrested five people and confiscated two kilograms of explosives from a passenger van at a security forces checkpost in Parachinar on Thursday.[8]

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

• On Monday, police in the Matta area of Swat district arrested a prominent Swat militant commander known as Badshah Zada.[9]

Pakistan-India Relations

• On Saturday, India’s External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna termed Pakistan’s “efforts to prosecute those behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks…a ‘façade,’” after the third anniversary of the attacks came and went without Pakistan taking any form of “’decisive’ action against the perpetrators.”  Meanwhile, students from Jamaatud Dawa’s (JD) youth wing gathered in Lahore on Sunday to protest Pakistan’s decision to grant India Most Favored Nation (MFN) status as AFP examined efforts to normalize bilateral trade relations between Pakistan and India.[10]

Karachi Violence

• The Rangers conducted search operations throughout Karachi on Friday, reportedly apprehending “dozens” of suspects.  Meanwhile, two security forces personnel were “gunned down” and killed by armed gunmen at a rally held by Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), an anti-Shia extremist group, in Numaish Chowrangi area on Sunday.  Three other security forces personnel were injured.  Later, the Rangers conducted a search operation, detaining 50 people, including three alleged shooters, sparking a four-hour long riot in the city.[11]

Terrorism

• On Friday, the Washington Post reported on the use of Pakistan-produced ammonium nitrate fertilizer in bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) targeting U.S. troops in Afghanistan and one U.S. commander’s fight to eliminate the “$40-fertilizer-bomb” threat.[12]