Gulf of Aden Security Review
A regularly updated review of both Yemen and the Horn of Africa covering topics related to security, governance, and militant activity.
Yemen: Hadi government–aligned forces and al Houthis exchange over 1000 prisoners; al Houthis release two American hostages in US-backed prisoner exchange; AQAP claims attack on al Houthis in al Bayda governorate; Hadi government–aligned forces clash with al Houthis in al Jawf governorate
Horn of Africa: US reportedly plans to withdraw troops from Somalia; ISCA claims first attack in Tanzania; al Shabaab claims killing SNA soldiers in Lower Shabelle region
Yemen Security Brief:
The internationally recognized Yemeni government of Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the al Houthi movement exchanged over 1000 prisoners of Yemen’s civil war on October 15 and 16, respectively. This exchange is the largest prisoner swap since Yemen’s current conflict. Hadi government officials and al Houthi leaders agreed to implement the prisoner exchange, a part of the 2018 Stockholm Agreement, in late September.[1]
Saudi Arabia, its Gulf State allies, and the al Houthi movement participated in a US-backed prisoner exchange on October 14. Saudi Arabia and its allies released over 200 detained al Houthi militants in exchange for two Americans that the al Houthi movement held hostage in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition and the al Houthi movement negotiated this deal separately from the UN-brokered prisoner swap related to the Stockholm Agreement.[2]
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula claimed firing mortar at al Houthi militants in al Sawma’ah district in central Yemen’s al Bayda governorate on October 13. The group previously claimed attacking al Houthi militants in al Bayda governorate in early October.[3]
Hadi government–aligned forces clashed with al Houthi militants on al Khanjar front, northeast of the capital of northern Yemen’s al Jawf governorate, on October 15. Hadi government–aligned forces claimed regaining al Houthi–held territory in al Jawf governorate on October 7.[4]
Horn of Africa Security Brief:
US President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to withdraw US troops from Somalia. Top US national security advisors are allegedly drafting a plan to extract approximately 700 US troops from the country, which the US sent during Trump’s presidency.[5]
The Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCA) claimed its first attack in Tanzania on October 15. ISCA militants reportedly attacked a Tanzanian military post in Kitaya town in Tanzania’s southeastern Mtwara region. The attack caused an unspecified number of casualties.[6]
Al Shabaab and Somali National Army (SNA) forces clashed outside of Afgoi town in Somalia’s southern Lower Shabelle region on October 14 and 15, respectively. The attacks allegedly caused at least 13 SNA casualties and four al Shabaab casualties. The SNA claimed ambushing al Shabaab militants in Lower Shabelle region in early October.[7]
[1] Khaled Abdullah and Stephanie Nehehay, “Yemen’s warring parties start prisoner swap, raising peace prospects,” Reuters, October 15, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/yemen-security-prisoners-int/yemens-warring-parties-start-exchanging-1000-prisoners-idUSKBN2701BA; “The arrival of the first batch of al Houthi prisoners to Sayoun,” 7adramaut, October 15, 2020, https://www.7adramout.net/aden-time/7510035/%D9%88%D8%B5%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A6%D9%88%D9%86.html; Khaled Abdullah and Abdulrahman al Ansi, “Yemen war foes complete two-day prisoner swap,” Reuters, October 16, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/yemen-security-prisoners-int/yemen-war-foes-complete-two-day-prisoner-swap-idUSKBN2711IA; and Jessica Kocan, “Gulf of Aden Security Review - September 28, 2020,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, September 28, 2020, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-september-28-2020.
[2] Dion Nissenbaum, “Two Americans Held Hostage by Iran-Backed Forces in Yemen Freed in Trade,” Wall Street Journal, October 24, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/two-americans-held-hostage-by-iran-backed-forces-in-yemen-freed-in-trade-11602687328; and Jessica Kocan, “Gulf of Aden Security Review - September 28, 2020,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, September 28, 2020, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-september-28-2020.
[3] “AQAP Photographs Mortar Fire on Houthi Positions in al-Sawma’ah (Bayda’),” SITE Intelligence Group, October 14, 2020, available by subscription at www.siteintelgroup.com; and Jessica Kocan, “Gulf of Aden Security Review - September 28, 2020,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, September 28, 2020, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-september-28-2020.
[4] “During the past 24 hours only…more than 24 raids on the al Houthis in Ma’rib and al Jawf,” Al Mashhad al Yemeni, October 15, 2020, https://www.almashhad-alyemeni.com/181931; and Hannah Kuperman and Sarah Gordon, “Gulf of Aden Security Review - October 7, 2020,” Critical Threats Project at American Enterprise Institute, October 7, 2020, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-october-7-2020.
[5] “Trump Demands Plan to Pull Hundreds of US Troops from Somalia,” Bloomberg, October 14, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/trump-demands-plan-to-pull-hundreds-of-u-s-troops-from-somalia; “ ‘Al Shabaab Presents a Future Threat to America’ Says AFRICOM After Trump Somalia Plans Made Public,” Hiiraan, October 15, 2020, http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2020/Oct/180298/_al_shabaab_presents_a_future_threat_to_america_says_africom_after_trump_somalia_plans_made_public.aspx; and Katherine Zimmerman and Emily Estelle, “Trump’s Short-Sighted Request to Withdraw Troops from Somalia,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, October 15, 2020, https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/trumps-short-sighted-request-to-withdraw-troops-from-somalia.
[6] “ISCAP Claims Attack in Tanzania’s Mtwara Region, Clash in DRC,” SITE, October 15, 2020, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/iscap-claims-attack-in-tanzania-s-mtwara-region-clash-in-drc.html.
[7] “Somali soldiers killed in al-Shabab attack near Mogadishu,” Al Jazeera, October 15, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/15/at-least-13-somali-soldiers-killed-after-al-shabaab-clash; and Hannah Kuperman and Sarah Gordon, “Gulf of Aden Security Review – October 7, 2020,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, October 7, 2020, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-october-7-2020.
