Kimberly Kagan

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2025

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023

This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...

Russian Preparations for Military Operations in Ukraine Continue

Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean Peninsula...

The U.S. Can Defuse Iraq’s Crisis

The U.S. and Gulf partners can help prevent a civil war among the Shi'a by providing water, energy, and medical assistance.

Intelligence Estimate and Forecast: The Syrian Theater

The United States will continue to risk its vital strategic interests in the Middle East unless it changes its policies in Syria and Iraq.

Can an Ancient Greek Win America's Wars?

There is no Thucydides Trap. War is not inevitable. The leaders of states, influenced by their citizens, make concrete policy decisions t...

It's time for the US to quit enabling Iran in Syria

If the Trump administration is serious about taking on Iran in the Middle East it must transform its strategy in Syria for fighting ISIS.

A New Strategy Against ISIS and al Qaeda

The Trump administration is set to supersize President Obama’s strategy to defeat Islamic State, sending more American forces to the regi...

America's Way Ahead in Syria

US leadership is needed to drive a multinational strategy that rallies regional powers capable of building the moderate Sunni Arab resist...

How Russia controls American policy

We've seen this movie--now playing in Syria-- before. The Russians have developed a way of getting the US formally to permit offensive Ru...

Competing Visions for Syria and Iraq: The Myth of an Anti-ISIS Grand Coalition

The superficial convergence of Iranian, Russian, Turkish, and Saudi strategic objectives with those of the U.S. on ISIS as a threat masks...

Al Qaeda and ISIS: Existential Threats to the U.S. and Europe

ISIS and al Qaeda pose an existential threat to the U.S. and Europe because they accelerate the collapse of world order, provoke domestic...

San Bernardino Shooting a Terrorist Attack with al Qaeda and ISIS Footprints

The San Bernardino shooting of December 2, 2015 was a terrorist attack conducted by perpetrators inspired by the Islamic State of Iraq an...

What To Do and To Don't in Response to the Paris Attacks

The ISIS attacks in Paris mark a step-change in the threat that group poses to the West. The following things to do and things not to do ...

Putin Ushers In A New Era of Global Geopolitics

The positioning of Russian aircraft in Syria gives the Kremlin an ability to shape and control U.S. and Western operations in both Syria ...

The Fall of Ramadi was Avoidable

The seizure of Ramadi on Sunday leaves President Obama's strategy against the Islamic State in ruins not only in Iraq but also throughout...

U.S. Strategy Against Islamic State Is Too Much Air, Not Enough Boots

After 50 days of obvious failure, it's time to consider an approach that might work against ISIS: Get American special forces on the grou...

In Fight Against ISIS, the U.S. Must Lead, and Not Rely on Allies

The Islamic State is a threat to the United States of America, and that is the primary reason we must defeat it. The United States has ca...

A Strategy to Defeat the Islamic State

The Islamic State is a clear and present danger to the security of the U.S. We must therefore pursue an iterative approach that tests bas...

Obama's 'Strategy' Has No Chance of Success

A counter-terrorism strategy will not succeed against the Islamic State because it is not just a terrorist group anymore.

The Afghan Endgame

President Obama’s decision to withdraw another 34,000 troops from Afghanistan over the course of the next year is unwise.

Iraq's Return to Bloodshed

Eighteen days of protests in Egypt in 2011 electrified the world. But more than twice that many days of protest in Iraq have gone almost ...

How to Waste a Decade in Afghanistan

Administration officials are already leaking that the U.S. presence will be smaller than that requested by Gen. John Allen. Leaving a bar...

Why U.S. Troops Must Stay in Afghanistan

We must either stabilize Afghanistan at this minimum level or abandon the fight against al Qaeda and its allies in South Asia. Any altern...

Losing Iraq

 Far from being a success, American policy in Iraq has created an extraordinarily dangerous situation over which we have almost no infl...

The 'Andar Uprising' and Progress in Afghanistan

We are looking for success too quickly and abandoning hope too soon. The outcome remains balanced on a knife’s edge, but a collapse of th...

Unraveling the Syria Mess: A Crisis Simulation of Spillover from the Syrian Civil War

AEI, ISW, and the Brookings Institution jointly conducted a one-day crisis simulation that focused on the impact of spillover from the de...

Courting Disaster in Afghanistan

When we have made the gains we can and must make, and when we have consolidated them to ensure that our efforts were not wasted and our s...

The Case for Continuing the Counterinsurgency Campaign in Afghanistan

The drawdown in Afghanistan may be afoot, but racing for the exits will leave large parts of the country -- especially around Kabul in th...

A New Mirage in the Iraqi Desert

This vision of relations will seem palatable to Americans and Iraqis who want to believe that all will be well after the withdrawal of U....

Defeat in Iraq

President Obama's decision to withdraw U.S. troops is the mother of all disasters.

Out of Iraq

The American withdrawal, which comes after the administration's failure to secure a new agreement that would have allowed troops to remai...

Retreating with Our Heads Held High

The president has enunciated the Obama Doctrine: American retreat. The humiliation of this retreat is compounded by the dishonesty of its...

Afghan Withdrawal Would Undermine Local Security Effort

Local security forces do not offset the risks incurred by premature withdrawal of combat forces from Afghanistan. In fact, premature with...

Success Against al Qaeda Depends on Success in Afghanistan

There is a direct connection between American and international efforts in Afghanistan and the successes we have had against al Qaeda in ...

We Have the Momentum in Afghanistan

Nothing about conditions on the ground justifies the withdrawal of any US or coalition forces from Afghanistan by the July 2011 deadline....

Bin Laden Is Dead

Osama bin Laden's killing was a great moment for America and for decent people around the world. But al Qaeda has not yet been dismantled...

An Unusually Hard Target

Given the difficulty of finding Bin Laden, targeted strikes should be considered but one tool in our arsenal against terrorists.

Stand With Iraq

Defense Secretary Robert Gates was in Baghdad last week on what was probably his last official trip to the country he helped save from de...

Defining Success in Afghanistan

Success in Afghanistan is the establishment of a political order, security situation, and indigenous security force that is stable, viabl...

Is Iraq Lost?

For the crisis in Iraq is still unfolding, and the United States continues to have a huge stake in the outcome. The question of the momen...

Why We Must Stick with Obama's Afghan Strategy

Now that President Obama has authorized Gen. David Petraeus to continue to execute the current strategy in Afghanistan, the question is: ...

A Winnable War

With a new commander and a renewed commitment from the commander in chief, we will make military progress in Afghanistan.

Iran Has Designs on Iraq

The problem is that progress in Iraq is not as inevitable as Mr. Biden suggests. Iraq faces a political and constitutional crisis weeks a...

Enemy Reactions to the US Strategy and Force-Sizing Options

A Comprehensive Strategy for Afghanistan: Afghanistan Force Requirements