Grace Mappes

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2024

Iran Update, October 9, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2024

A recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia's demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the K...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024

Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will no...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2024

The interplay between ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka directions indicates that the Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2024

Iran Update, June 26, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2024

Two major international bodies—the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) — announced decisions...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 03, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2024

The pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours, and the pattern of Rus...

Positional Warfare in Alexander Svechin’s Strategy

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocrati...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2024

Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the fro...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2024

US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, incl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2024

The Ukrainian military’s effective use of drones on the battlefield cannot fully mitigate Ukraine’s theater-wide shortage of critical mun...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2024

Russian state media highlighted Russia and China’s joint effort to combat perceived Western “dual containment” targeting Russia and China...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that delays in American security assistance have forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2024

The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organization and a known tool within the Russian hybrid wa...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2024

The Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these rese...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a ceasefire in Ukraine would allow Russia to rebuild its forces and means for futu...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2024

Ukraine destroyed the Project 22160 Sergei Kotov large patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) off the coast of the Kerch Strait on the ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 29, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2024

Russian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2024

Sweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2024

Ukraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite grow...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2024

Ukraine has been defending itself against illegal Russian military intervention and aggression for 10 years.[1] Russia violated its commi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2024

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have established “full control” over Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast as Russi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2024

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Gu...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin evoked a wide Russian social and economic mobilization reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s total mobilizat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2024

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2024

Ukraine’s Long-Term Path to Success: Jumpstarting a Self-Sufficient Defense Industrial Base with US and EU Support

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2024

The reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation e...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the West as Russia’s “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defea...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12, 2023

US intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2023

Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging wea...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4, 2023

Russia continues to reckon with the economic ramifications of labor shortages partially resulting from the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2023

A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2023

Russian forces launched the largest drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion overnight on November 24 to 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2023

Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8. The Ukrainian General...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2023

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the war in Ukraine is not a “stalemate” in a comment to the media about Ukrainian ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1, 2023

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on November 1 that the war in Ukraine has taken on a positional nature an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28, 2023

Remnants of the Wagner Group appear to be fighting in the Avdiivka direction subordinate to Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) controlled ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21, 2023

Ukrainian forces have likely repelled another intensified Russian offensive effort towards Avdiivka in the past several days and inflicte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2023

Russian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on October 20 and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian militar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2023

Russian sources continued to discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 1...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16, 2023

Russia likely deployed elements of at least two Central Military District (CMD) brigades to reinforce offensive operations by Donetsk Peo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14, 2023

US and Ukrainian officials reported on October 12 and 13 that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expre...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2023

Karolina Hird, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, and Mason Clark

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 20th Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 and promoted multiple long-standing Russian infor...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2023

The Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28. The Ukrainian General Staf...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26, 2023

The tactical situation in Verbove remains unclear as Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on Sept...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023

Russian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2023

Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in wes...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on September 2.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30, 2023

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2023

Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2023

“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintrod...

Iran Update, August 17, 2023

Syrians demonstrated against worsening economic conditions and the Syrian regime’s mismanagement of the economy across the country. Iran...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luh...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the w...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2023

The Wagner Group continues to maintain a presence at facilities in Belarus and the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russia remains unc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2023

A dispute among prominent voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin’s sensitivity to Russian reporting about setback...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2023

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submers...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023

Segments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, al...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2023

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than break...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2023