Nicole Wolkov

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2024

A recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia's demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the K...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2024

The interplay between ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka directions indicates that the Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2024

Two major international bodies—the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) — announced decisions...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to invoke nuclear threats as part of his ongoing information campaign to discourage further We...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2024

Select Russian military commentators continue to complain about superior Ukrainian drone and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities on the ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2024

US President Joe Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets —...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2024

The pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours, and the pattern of Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocrati...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2024

Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the Avdiivka area on April 30 for the first time in several days, while Ukrainian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2024

Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the fro...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2024

US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, incl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024

The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2024

The Ukrainian military’s effective use of drones on the battlefield cannot fully mitigate Ukraine’s theater-wide shortage of critical mun...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2024

Russian state media highlighted Russia and China’s joint effort to combat perceived Western “dual containment” targeting Russia and China...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on April 2 that lowers the Ukrainian military’s mobilization age from 27 to 25 years ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2024

The Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these rese...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2024

Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated on March 6 that Ukraine will try to seize the initiative an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 29, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2024

Sweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2024

Ukraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite grow...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2024

Ukraine has been defending itself against illegal Russian military intervention and aggression for 10 years.[1] Russia violated its commi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2024

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Gu...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to use an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson published on February 8 to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2024

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 20, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin falsely claimed that Russia supports the “unconditional equality” and “sovereignty” of all states in a J...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2024

Ukraine’s Long-Term Path to Success: Jumpstarting a Self-Sufficient Defense Industrial Base with US and EU Support

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2024

The reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation e...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2024

Iran Update, January 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 9, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20, 2023

Head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill made a series of anti-migrant and xenophobic remarks that directl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18, 2023

Ukrainian Strikes Have Changed Russian Naval Operations in the Black Sea

Ukrainian forces launched a successful preemptive strike campaign against the Russian BSF in the summer and fall of 2023, which aimed to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12, 2023

US intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea on the night of Decemb...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4, 2023

Russia continues to reckon with the economic ramifications of labor shortages partially resulting from the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2023

A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February...

Iran Update, November 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a two-part conception of Russian identity in a speech on November 28: a “Russian nation” – cl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2023

Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13, 2023

Russian state media released and later retracted reports about the "regrouping" of Russian forces on the east (left) bank of Kherson Obla...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 23, 2023

Russia's domestic production of artillery shells, supplemented by increased ammunition imports from North Korea, will likely allow Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2023

Russian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on October 20 and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian militar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2023

Russian sources continued to discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 1...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14, 2023

US and Ukrainian officials reported on October 12 and 13 that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expre...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 11, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9, 2023

Ukraine’s Strike Campaign Against Crimea Seeks to Degrade Russian Defenses in Southern Ukraine and Supports Ongoing Ukrainian Counteroffensive Operations

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2023

Karolina Hird, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, and Mason Clark

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 20th Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 and promoted multiple long-standing Russian infor...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2023

The Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28. The Ukrainian General Staf...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2023

ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2023

Ukrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western Zaporizhia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023

Russian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in wes...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on September 2.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2023

Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2023

Russian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luh...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the w...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2023

Ukrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2023

A dispute among prominent voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin’s sensitivity to Russian reporting about setback...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2023

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submers...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2023

The lack of Russian milblogger reaction to a Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge represents a notable inflection in Russian reporting ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023

Segments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2023

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Pri...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2023

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff rep...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than break...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2023

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLO...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front made marginal advances on July 3. The Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2023

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2023

Continued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggest...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reput...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2023

Russian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s Ju...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minist...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made gains on June 14.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukra...