Critical Threats Today

 The exercises are running from February 26-March 1 in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, the northern Indian Ocean, and the Gulf of Aden. The exercises featured the launch of a cruise missile named “Nasir” and a “smart” laser-guided anti-submarine missile named “Dehlaviyeh.” The range of the “Nasir” cruise missile was not specified. The large-scale exercises have been planned for some time. IRGC Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour, meanwhile, announced the formation of the IRGC Ground Forces Drone Organization on February 26.

An al Houthi-Saleh Defense Ministry exposition introduced drones described as having been manufactured in Yemen. The al Houthi-Saleh “Qassef-1” bears a close resemblance to drones built by Iran’s Ghods Aviation Industries, specifically the “Ababil II” model. Iran will continue to be a key backer of the al Houthi-Saleh faction in Yemen’s civil war. (Related reading: How the U.S. Should Re-Engage in Yemen)

The U.S. may expand its military footprint in Somalia following Pentagon recommendations to increase pressure on al Shabaab. The Pentagon seeks White House approval for introducing more U.S. Special Operations Forces into ground operations alongside Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces and to reduce restrictions on airstrike against al Shabaab targets. The recommendations accord with the Trump administration’s desire to strengthen the U.S. strategy against ISIS, al Qaeda, and their Salafi-jihadi affiliates around the globe. Governance challenges will continue to hinder efforts against al Shabaab. Critical Threats will publish a report on the situation in Somalia and recommendations for addressing threats to U.S. national security there later this week.

The group claimed credit for a briefcase bomb attack in Constantine province, northeastern Algeria. The claim framed the attack as a suicide bombing, but it is not clear if the death of the bomber was intentional. Algerian police fired on the attacker before the bomb detonated. This would be ISIS’s first suicide attack in Algeria. The botched bombing follows the beheading of an Algerian intelligence officer in northern Algeria on February 14. ISIS Wilayat Jaza’ir’s capabilities remain limited to small explosive attacks and assassinations targeting Algerian security personnel. (Related reading: AQIM and ISIS in Tunisia: Competing Campaigns)

The GNA brokered a ceasefire between rival militias, ending several days of fighting. Tensions in the city remain high, however. The ceasefire is a small victory for the GNA, the principal US partner against ISIS in Libya, whose legitimacy is contested by rival militias and political factions in Tripoli and throughout the country.

A U.S. drone strike in Idlib Province, Syria, almost certainly killed the deputy leader of al Qaeda. Abu al Khayr al Masri fought with al Qaeda in Afghanistan, was a member of al Qaeda’s shura council, and helped plan the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya. The Pentagon has yet to comment on this alleged strike. Al Qaeda is actively taking steps to unify the Syrian armed opposition under its leadership.