Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from March 23 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi lacks support from Yemen’s Gulf sponsors and is becoming isolated within his government.
Yemen’s Southern Movement commemorated its tenth anniversary and called for closer coordination with the Saudi and Emirati governments. The Southern Movement is a coalition of southern Yemeni political and military leaders within the territory of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. It maintains a strong relationship with the Emirati government and is investing in ties with Saudi leaders. Both the Emirati and Saudi government are frustrated with President Hadi’s failure to build a strong coalition, but promoted a divisive Vice President in Ali Mohsen al Ahmar. The Southern Movement and UAE both see al Ahmar and his allies in the Islamist Islah Party as an unacceptable replacement to the majority of southern parties in the Hadi government coalition. The Saudi-led coalition relies on Southern Movement as a stakeholder in whichever government they hope to form after Hadi, but currently lack an acceptable candidate for his replacement. (Related reading: Yemen’s Southern Challenge: Background on the Rising Threat of Secessionism)
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A bipartisan group of senators introduced new legislation calling for the expansion of sanctions targeting Iran’s ballistic missile program, support for terrorism, and human rights violations.
Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) stressed that the new sanctions would not impede with U.S. commitments under the nuclear deal.
President Hassan Rouhani praised Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s “clear guidelines” regarding the economy in an effort to de-escalate tensions between himself and Khamenei.
Rouhani highlighted Khamenei’s “continued support” in the effort to improve Iran’s economy in a letter to the Supreme Leader on March 22. Rouhani also expressed confidence that his administration’s “firm belief” in the policies of the Resistance Economy doctrine will “result in even” greater “achievements thanks to more cooperation and coordination in the legal, cultural, and management spheres and with clear guidelines” from the Supreme Leader. Rouhani’s letter is likely an effort to de-escalate the growing tensions between the president and the Supreme Leader over the former’s implementation of the Resistance Economy doctrine ahead of the May presidential elections.
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Al Shabaab conducts simultaneous humanitarian and insurgent operations in an effort to degrade Somali Federal Government control in key areas of Lower Shabelle region in southern Somalia.
Al Shabaab militants attacked Somali National Army (SNA) bases in Shalanbod, Jazeera, Qoryoley, and Barawe in March 2017. The militant group temporarily seized the Jazeera base, which is located 12 miles southwest of the capital, Mogadishu. Al Shabaab also distributed food and water aid to local populations throughout the region in recent weeks.
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The al Qaeda network is intervening in ethnic clashes in central Mali to expand its area of operations.
The Macina Liberation Front (MLF), a largely ethnic Fulani AQIM associate intervened on behalf of the Fulani in clashes with ethnic Bambara in Niono, Segou Region, Mali. The MLF is leveraging Fulani discontent with the Malian state to implement Salafi Shari'a law in these communities. The clashes coincide with an escalating Fulani insurgency spearheaded by the AQIM associate Ansar al Islam in neighboring Burkina Faso. The AQIM network's greater hold on Fulani populations will undermine security in the Sahel states. (Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)
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The Libyan National Army (LNA) is consolidating control of Libya’s oil resources.
The LNA is pressuring the Misratan Third Force to cede control of Tamnahent airbase and the Sharara oil field in southwestern Libya’s Fezzan region. The LNA expelled the Third Force from a checkpoint near the Tamnahent airbase that it had held since November 2014. A LNA takeover of Tamnahent and Sharara would tip the balance of power in the Fezzan in the LNA’s favor but would spark backlash from Misratan militias. Anti-LNA forces will likely counterattack in southern or central Libya.
