Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from March 6 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Iran tested the S-300 missile defense system it received from Russia last year.
Iranian news outlets reported that an S-300 surface-to-air (SAM) missile defense system detected and destroyed a ballistic missile and an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) during a test launch on March 5. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Base Commander Artesh Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili stressed that Iranian experts alone tested the system. Western news outlets also reported that Iran tested two Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missiles over the weekend. No Iranian officials or news outlets appeared to confirm the test.
Western news outlets reported that “multiple” IRGC fast-attack craft came within 600 yards of the USNS Invincible, a tracking ship, in the Strait of Hormuz and forced it to change direction.
Attempts to communicate with the IRGC vessels were reportedly unsuccessful.
Bahrain’s crackdown on Shi'a militants will likely provide an opening for Iran to extend its influence.
Bahraini security forces uncovered a cell of militants with ties to Iran, Iraq, and Germany that were responsible for a string of bombings targeting police officers in Manama, Bahrain. The group also smuggled large quantities of small arms into Bahrain. Bahraini parliament voted to try civilians in military courts, which employs the death penalty, later the same day. The last execution of a Shi'a militant by a Bahraini military court sparked the current spat of IED attacks.
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Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) sustained its normal pace of operations in central Yemen despite an unprecedented tempo of U.S. counterterrorism operations against the group.
AQAP militants conducted attacks in central, southern, and eastern Yemen between March 3 and 5. U.S. forces conducted airstrikes against AQAP targets during the same timeframe. AQAP will very likely adjust its ground posture in response to this increased rate of counterterrorism strikes. AQAP will continue to expand its support base in the context of the civil war while the conditions that allow it to grow are not addressed. (Related reading: Warning to the Trump administration: Be careful about Yemen)
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Al Shabaab could exploit severe drought and famine conditions to build local support in desperate communities.
Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire announced that 110 people died within a 48-hour span in Bay region, southern Somalia. Disease and malnutrition threatens 6.2 million people, more than half the total population of Somalia. Al Shabaab distributed food aid to civilians in Lower Shabelle region, according to local reports. Such activity allows al Shabaab to usurp governing capacities in the absence of support from the Somali government or international community.
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Al Qaeda affiliates are exploiting political tensions between former militant groups and the Malian government in order to undermine the implementation of security cooperation.
Al Qaeda-affiliated Ansar al Islam attacked a military position manned by the Malian army and an ethnically Arab militia called the Arab Movement for the Azawad (MAA) in Boulikessi, which is just across the Burkinabe border in Mali’s central Mopti region. MAA forces did not help the Malian army to defend the position, likely due to their ongoing dispute with the Malian government over their representation in interim authorities of northern Mali’s local governments. The MAA and other minority-based militias unhappy with their representation in the interim authorities are besieging the Malian government in Timbuktu. It is highly probable that AQIM-linked groups will continue to target weak points in the coalition between the Malian army and the armed groups of northern Mali. Ansar al Islam also demonstrated the ability to conduct high-casualty attacks and temporarily seize territory on the Malian side of the border in addition to their operations in Burkina Faso.
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An escalation in Islamist violence against the Libyan National Army (LNA) will further destabilize the political situation in Libya.
The Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB), an Islamist coalition with ties to al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia, attempted to seize al Sidra and Ras Lanuf ports on March 3. The LNA is still trying to repel the attack, which undermines its reputation as the most powerful military authority in Libya. At the same time, supporters of the Islamist-led defunct General National Congress took over the headquarters of the National Oil Corporation, which is aligned with the UN-backed Government of National Accord. Islamists will likely try to use Libya’s oil infrastructure as leverage to advance their own interests, but a disruption in oil production could severely damage Libya’s economy, which is heavily dependent on oil sales.
