Critical Threats Today

Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami warned that “No one - neither candidates nor their supporters - has a right to persecute [Iran’s] Islamic political system under the pretext of campaign speeches” during his Friday sermon on March 3. Regime hardliners consider the 2009 Green Movement a “sedition” against the Islamic Republic, and call many reformists “seditionists” due to their ties to the movement. The Green Movement alleged election fraud in the 2009 presidential elections and sought government reforms. Khatami’s comments are a warning to reformists not to reignite a national debate regarding the regime’s legitimacy ahead of the May 2017 presidential elections. Reformists launched a similar effort prior to the 2013 presidential elections.

U.S. forces conducted over 30 airstrikes targeting AQAP between March 2 and 3, approaching the number of airstrikes the U.S. conducted in 2016. Increased targeting of AQAP militants may force the group to adapt its posture and withdraw from the frontline in central Yemen. This repositioning would benefit the al Houthi-Saleh faction, which is fighting a ground campaign against AQAP and affiliated forces in central Yemen. The conditions that AQAP exploits to grow its support base persist due to the Yemeni civil war. (Related reading: How the U.S. Should Re-Engage in Yemen)

Al Shabaab militants publicly executed a Somali National Army (SNA) soldier in Jilib on March 3. Al Shabaab commanders also held a large rally and parade in Jilib on February 12, during which they vowed to wage war against the new Somali administration. Al Shabaab likely uses Jilib as a support zone for attacks against Kenyan forces along the southern road to Kismayo, which Kenyan forces seized from al Shabaab in 2012. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)

Boko Haram-Shekau suicide bombers destroyed three fuel trucks parked in the main gas depot in Maiduguri, Nigeria on March 3. The destruction of fuel supplies limits the Nigerian government's ability to transport goods to remote areas of Borno State. Boko Haram-Shekau launched a massive attack that destroyed a parked aid convoy on February 17. Boko Haram-Shekau is unable to feed its own fighters because its violent tactics alienate the local population.

The Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB), an Islamist coalition with ties to al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia, attempted to seize al Sidra and Ras Lanuf ports on March 3. The LNA repelled the attack. The LNA also announced its readiness to engage in a “new war” against those targeting its oil facilities. The LNA will likely attack the BDB and other associated militias in central and possibly western Libya in order to prevent additional attacks on the oil crescent region. An LNA incursion into western Libya would spark backlash from anti-LNA forces that dominate western Libya. The return of internecine conflict in Libya would serve as a rallying cry for al Qaeda and set conditions for the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya to reverse its recent losses. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)